Riverbrian

I drink no.

I just want to say that you post solid stuff. I can always count on your postings to be well researched and logical. I may see things differently from time to time but I know you are coming from solid ground. Cheers to ya.

You can sign multiple players and improve in multiple spots for what it would take to gobble up one of the top 4 SS's.

I have often heard mention of "Kepler's Positive WAR". How much defensive weighting is going on to take his offensive numbers and make his overall game positive. I'm going to say too much... however it is done. ?

I agree that he should spend significant time at AAA while he has options to do so. However, if he is on a MLB roster, the day will come when we will need him to be better that what he has been. If his defense is good but his offense is not. He is a specialist. If he is occupying a roster spot on August 1 after the trade deadline, it is very likely that you need him because injuries don't stop after the deadline.

Thanks... I'll take the job. Just waiting for Falvey to give me a call. I'm keeping my phone charged and with me at all times just in case. In my opinion, Drury and Haniger are necessary together. We just don't know if Larnach will get the job done. We don't know if Gordon will be the same Gordon next year. I am certainly at my wits end with Kepler. Buxton has his health issues and so does Haniger. Drury plays 1B, 2B, 3B and he also plays OF. If we are struggling to find OF production because of the 5 things listed above. Drury can prop things up. Make it less likely that we are praying that Jake Cave brings us to the playoffs. Mateo can also play OF if needed. Gordon can also play IF. WIth the DH spot also available for use. We could staff a Haniger and Drury and find the AB's to keep them producing if they are producing.

I only included Pagan because... I know that he will be back. He will be on the roster next year and the front office better be right about that. In my world... Pagan money could be turned into Hand money.

I posted this elsewhere but want the topic. You should change your underwear because you never know when you get caught with your pants down. If you keep specialists on your roster. What happens when you need them to be much more than what they are? Every. Single. Year. Injuries. Happen. If someone is on your 26 man roster, they can't be hid because injuries are going to bring them into the light and you will NEED THEM. It happens every. single. year. Every year... injuries are going to pull your pants down. Change your underwear because the whole world will see that specialist if you don't. Gilbert Celestino was a defensive specialist. His hitting wasn't good. We knew his hitting wasn't good and we knew that Buxton wasn't healthy by the trade deadline. You are screwed when you need your defensive specialist to be a hitter because your hitters have gone away. Max Kepler is a defensive specialist. His hitting makes him a defensive specialist. He defends but doesn't hit. That makes him a defensive specialist for two years now. Needing Kepler to be a hitter because your other hitters have gone away is too much to ask and too much to expect. Kyle Garlick was a specialist that was only allowed to face left handed hitting. You are screwed when you need Garlick to quickly digest right handers after starving him for years, needing to do it in September during a pennant chase is complete lack of prep for the possibility. Placing a player in a short side platoon is not prepping someone for September. We knew what Celestino and Garlick were at the trade deadline. The trade deadline is the last day that you can change your underwear. We didn't have a belt.

You should change your underwear because you never know when you get caught with your pants down. If you keep specialists on your roster. What happens when you need them to be much more than what they are. Every. Single. Year. Injuries. Happen. If someone is on your 26 man roster, they can't be hid because injuries are going to bring them into the light and you will NEED THEM. It happens every. single. year. Every year... injuries are going to pull your pants down. Change your underwear because the whole world will see that specialist if you don't. Gilbert Celestino was a defensive specialist. His hitting wasn't good. We knew his hitting wasn't good and we knew that Buxton wasn't healthy by the trade deadline. You are screwed when you need your defensive specialist to be a hitter because your hitters have gone away. Max Kepler is a defensive specialist. His hitting makes him a defensive specialist. He defends but doesn't hit. That makes him a defensive specialist for two years now. Needing Kepler to be a hitter because your other hitters have gone away is too much to ask and too much to expect. Kyle Garlick was a specialist that was only allowed to face left handed hitting. You are screwed when you need Garlick to quickly digest right handers after starving him for years, needing to do it in September during a pennant chase is complete lack of prep for the possibility. Placing a player in a short side platoon is not prepping someone for September. We knew what Celestino and Garlick were at the trade deadline. The trade deadline is the last day that you can change your underwear. Our pants came down.

A slight change after taking the current 40 man roster into consideration and expected additions. Instead of Brad Hand... I'm bringing in Brandon Drury. SP SONNY GRAY 12.5 SP KENTA MAEDA 9 SP TYLER MAHLE 8 SP JOE RYAN 0.7 3 SP BAILEY OBER 0.7 2 SP SIMEON W. RICHARDSON 0.7 3 SP LOUIE VARLAND 0.7 3 SP COLE SANDS 0.7 2 SP JORDAN BALAZOVIC 0.7 1 SP CHRIS PADDACK 4 2 SP BLAYNE ENLOW 0.7 2 SP MATT CANTERINO 0.7 3 RP EDWIN DIAZ 16.1 2 RP EMILIO PAGAN 3 RP JORGE LOPEZ 3 RP CALEB THIELBAR 2 1 RP JORGE ALCALA 0.7 3 RP JHOAN DURAN 0.7 1 RP GRIFFIN JAX 0.7 2 SP JOSH WINDER 0.7 2 RP JOVANI MORAN 0.7 2 RP RONNY HERNANDEZ 0.7 2 C RYAN JEFFERS 0.7 2 C OMAR NARVEAZ 3.1 3B GIO URSHELA 9 1B-3B JOSE MIRANDA 0.7 2 1B-2B-3B-OF BRANDON DRURY 6.1 1B-OF ALEX KIRILLOFF 0.7 1 2B-1B-3B LUIS ARRAEZ 4.5 2 2B-SS JORGE POLANCO 7.5 SS-3B-2B-OF JORGE MATEO 0.7 SS-3B-2B-OF ROYCE LEWIS 0.7 2 2B EDOUARD JULIEN 0.7 3 OF BYRON BUXTON 15.1 OF MITCH HANIGER 15 OF TREVOR LARNACH 0.7 OF-2B-SS NICK GORDON 0.7 2 OF MAX KEPLER 8.5 OF GILBERTO CELESTINO 0.7 1 OF MATT WALLNER 0.7 3 BUYOUTS 4.5 TOTAL 147.7 GONE COULOMBE DFA GARLICK DFA MAGILL DFA CONTRERES TRADED FOR STASHAK JORGE MATEO FREE AGENTS SIGNED EDWIN DIAZ OMAR NARVEAZ BRANDON DRURY MITCH HANIGER

I won't argue with you because I have no idea. First year of free agency. Other than Judge he would be the top RH power hitting OF. I was thinking a 3 year deal at 45. Health might push him down to 2 years or 1. But yeah... I have no idea. His agent wasn't returning my calls.

If the Twins are rostering Pagan next year. They better be right. The past two years equal two strikes. Pagan better choke up for this next appearance.

I want to put a better one together. I might spend some time with a spreadsheet and the potential 40 man adds because in the end... that 40 man roster will dictate how many you can add and who needs to be moved.

Agreed However, Moran has options and can be stashed for a rainy day and it rains a lot. Gotta have those guys around.

In my opinion, Narvaez and Hand would certainly be 1 year contracts or 1 year with a club option. I'd guess that Haniger will take some years on the deal to get done. Health has been an issue for him and that is probably the main reason not to knock on his door. After all, we've had enough of the D.L. listings. I like the potential depth of this lineup so I'm knocking on Haniger's door.

Kepler hasn't been good for two years straight. Bellinger has been worse during those two years. The Twins need to sign an OF who has been GOOD for two years straight. Neither Kepler or Bellinger deserve "starters" playing time at this point. Kepler can have a roster spot as a member of the OF pile... but he has to prove himself for similar playing time to what he has been given the past two struggling years. OF should be a free agency priority and Kepler is a major reason why it needs to be a priority.

SS is such a hard position to fill and stay under budget, All the SS's worth spending a chunk change on will be expensive. I'd love to have Correa back but Hanigar, Diaz and Narvaez fix 3 spots instead of 1. Injuries are going to happen so I want the depth that Martin and Lewis bring in St. Paul. We won games with Polanco at SS in the past and we can do it again. I think Baltimore is going to spend some money this year, it wouldn't surprise me to see them jump in the SS market and they also have that Henderson kid who can play SS if they don't so the Orioles could part with Mateo. A player like Mateo has speed (which we need), defense and the ability to play OF. He also has a little pop in the bat but I would like to see his on base percentage up. With Mateo on the roster, Royce Lewis could be the first call up with an injury at 2B, 3B and OF. Cave was our OF leader during the pennant chase. There is no way I'm looking at Kepler and saying this is the guy. I'm hopeful that the banning of the shift helps Kepler out but a RH power hitting outfielder is my first priority. Haniger is that.

I'm not going to get him at 15 if you have driven the price up to 20. ? I'm hoping the Trumpet Day Promotions will entice him. Free Trumpets to the first 10,000 fans.

Mitch Haniger, Edwin Diaz and Brad Hand added as Free Agents To add some speed. Jorge Mateo acquired in a trade with Baltimore for Cody Stashak. Still have Royce Lewis ready to go when he's ready to go. Otherwise... I'm going to let the starting pitching keep bubbling up. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.7M) 1B: Jose Miranda ($0.7M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.5M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Jorge Polanco ($7.5M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.70M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15M) RF: Mitch Haniger ($15M) DH: Alex Kirilloff ($0.70M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.70M) Utility: Jorge Mateo ($.7M) Utility: Max Kepler ($8.50M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5M) SP1: Sonny Gray ($12.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.70M) SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Josh Winder ($0.7M) RP: Brad Hand ($6M) RP: Edwin Diaz ($14M) Payroll is 9.14% under budget

I'm aware of all that you mention. There is a hardened structure in place and probably legit reasons for that structure. Are you aware of his problems with injuries as a starting pitcher (multiple innings)? We don't exactly know if Duran could morph back into a starter, a multiple innings guy, or even throw on back to back to back days. It sure seems like an experiment would come with the inevitable Tommy John or worse (shoulder). We don't know however. I think we all assume (myself included) that the rest and routine between starts is important to keep a pitcher healthy and there is no way that I am qualified to determine what does keep pitchers healthy. I can only counter with: Whatever they are doing doesn't appear to be keeping pitchers healthy. Would it get worse with my suggestion... I don't know but I have a hard time seeing how it could possible get worse. Last Saturday games and the playoffs thus far have shown us what works best. Pitchers who move the ball around, vary their pitches, and keep the ball on the edges are successful. Velocity helps but isn't as important. Those who put a pitch in the heart get hurt, even by Harrison Bader. Nolan Ryan was hit hard when he threw it down the middle. I've been watching a long time. Agreed... throwing down the middle is going to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard and it doesn't seem to matter what velocity it is down at. However, what I'm trying to accomplish is better pitching across the board and a staff of pitchers who can vary their pitches, keep the ball on the edges and doing so by eliminating the innings eater. Pitchers have different roles based on their repertoire and ability to bounce back. I can only think of one pitcher who was successful with a single pitch and that Yankee failed as a starter. Some guys could throw 125+ pitches while others are toast at 25. Some can bounce back in a day or two and others take 3-5 days to recover. This is a function of anatomy and just trying to lengthen out doesn't work in many cases. Pitching remains command and control. Verland, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer are living examples of how to pitch. Bieber and Nola are younger examples. If a pitcher can only effectively give you 25... that's all you get. I don't know where Duran fits on the scale, he was a starter in the minors and a reliever in the majors. What we saw last year was a product of conventional usage (close to conventional usage) so it really doesn't answer the question of how many innings could effectively throw. I don't know the answer but I'd like to get as many as possible from a guy who was very productive in the 60 plus innings he was assigned. I'd like to get away from the days of throwing Bundy types throwing 140 innings with an ERA around 5 just to keep a rotation intact. Whoever, your best pitchers are... get as much as can out of them. Find a different way to allocate those 1437 innings that need to be thrown by someone.

I'm aware of all that you mention. There is a hardened structure in place and probably legit reasons for that structure. Are you aware of his problems with injuries as a starting pitcher (multiple innings)? We don't exactly know if Duran could morph back into a starter, a multiple innings guy, or even throw on back to back to back days. It sure seems like an experiment would come with the inevitable Tommy John or worse (shoulder). We don't know however. I think we all assume (myself included) that the rest and routine between starts is important to keep a pitcher healthy and there is no way that I am qualified to determine what does keep pitchers healthy. I can only counter with: Whatever they are doing doesn't appear to be keeping pitchers healthy. Would it get worse with my suggestion... I don't know but I have a hard time seeing how it could possible get worse. Last Saturday games and the playoffs thus far have shown us what works best. Pitchers who move the ball around, vary their pitches, and keep the ball on the edges are successful. Velocity helps but isn't as important. Those who put a pitch in the heart get hurt, even by Harrison Bader. Nolan Ryan was hit hard when he threw it down the middle. I've been watching a long time. Agreed... throwing down the middle is going to put crooked numbers on the scoreboard and it doesn't seem to matter what velocity it is down at. However, what I'm trying to accomplish is better pitching across the board and a staff of pitchers who can vary their pitches, keep the ball on the edges and doing so by eliminating the innings eater. Pitchers have different roles based on their repertoire and ability to bounce back. I can only think of one pitcher who was successful with a single pitch and that Yankee failed as a starter. Some guys could throw 125+ pitches while others are toast at 25. Some can bounce back in a day or two and others take 3-5 days to recover. This is a function of anatomy and just trying to lengthen out doesn't work in many cases. Pitching remains command and control. Verland, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer are living examples of how to pitch. Bieber and Nola are younger examples. If a pitcher can only effectively give you 25... that's all you get. I don't know where Duran fits on the scale, he was a starter in the minors and a reliever in the majors. What we saw last year was a product of conventional usage (close to conventional usage) so it really doesn't answer the question of how many innings could effectively throw. I don't know the answer but I'd like to get as many as possible from a guy who was very productive in the 60 plus innings he was assigned. I'd like to get away from the days of throwing Bundy types throwing 140 innings with an ERA around 5 just to keep a rotation intact. Whoever, your best pitchers are... get as much as can out of them. Find a different way to allocate those 1437 innings that need to be thrown by someone.

I'm trying to eliminate the assigned roles like Starter and Closer. I'd simply make him a pitcher and use him as often as you can to get more innings out of him. He can finish games in the 9th, He can start games in the 1st or enter at any time in a given ball game. I know this won't happen but I contend that taking pitchers out of specific roles would make it easier to staff your roster with the best 13 arms and get more innings to your best.

How thin are the margins? Arraez was once 50/50 for a 40 man spot. Inches from being elsewhere.

Not only is it hard to predict for us mere mortals. It's hard for the professionals in those front offices to predict despite having the power to influence the results. Emilio Pagan shows up, the professionals watch him... they measure him... they analyze him. After all of that... they give him a high leverage position ahead of many others based on what they see. They are professionals... they are better at this than you and I. They were still wrong. Max Kepler has struggled for the past two years. Based on playing time... based on how they structure the lineup with his name in it... based on the deal they committed to him. They obviously assessed him higher than what he has been. They were wrong. If there is wrong (and there is) that we can actually see on the players they turn to,... wrong on the players that they believe will be successful. There has to be wrong on the other side that we can't see. Nick Anderson not getting a chance type wrongs. Oh Yeah... Nick Anderson... They were extremely wrong. This isn't to denigrate the front office and I'm hoping I didn't start rolling another ball down the hill because every front office makes these types of mistakes. Moral to the story. The margins are thin... the difference between the edge of a career and career is painfully tiny. There is only one way to find out if a player is going to make it or not. Give them the ball and let them show you.

It's harder when young players can be sent down while vets can't. If a rookie performs like Archer and Bundy they get sent down. If Archer and Bundy perform like Archer and Bundy they stay up to preserve depth because you are one foot shorter when they hit the wire and that depth will be needed later so you can't blame clubs for doing that. Also factor in health. Arms are hard to maintain so pitchers go down at some point and many use up their bullets in the minors.