Riverbrian

I believe the data that clearly states that pitchers are less effective the third time through the order will lead to 13 man staffs. I believe the increased successful use of the bullpen is leading to the 13 man staffs. I don't believe the opener has anything to do with that because that is just sequencing. Some Managers are going to want to manage the back end of games like it was still 1984 but the super bullpen has now been created. Boone has a stable of arms to help him manage the back end of games. He might want to lock into Chapman for the 9th and Betances for the 8th out of some hard pulling gravitational force of consistency or contract negotiations based upon saves... BUT... BUT... He no longer has to. The model has been shattered. If Kevin Cash had Boone's bullpen... He might let Chapman throw the 7th through 9th in a one run game against a left heavy lineup... knowing that Chapman can rest a day or two afterwards with Ottovino, Britton, Green, Kahnle available to throw the 9th or 8th tomorrow. Cash might bring Chapman into the game in the 5th innings with the bases loaded and one out. The extra roster spot that will be created? I haven't thought about it.Probably won't until it happens. I think teams will be going to 13 man pitching staff for the majority of the season out of necessary. They might not start with 13... but they will end up there and the 12 positions players are going to need extra gloves for the extra positions... but regardless if the pitching staffs need to be 13 or 12... I still believe that players should have extra gloves regardless. Flexibility is not only necessary... It's helpful as safety nets from injury and poor performance across the diamond.

i Agree with everything you typed. I believe the opener concept is just a change in sequencing... There are times to do it and times not to do it just like there are times to bunt and times that you shouldn't. The only nitpick I have is that I don't believe it guarantees the use of 4 or 5 pitchers... I believe it guarantees nothing. I look at it like a new type of sand wedge for getting out of a bunker. It just might help but in the wrong hands... there is still a possibility that you are going to be swinging again from the sand. When I look at Tampa Bay... the opener is just a distraction from what really happened last summer with them. They found a way to survive without traditional starters for the overwhelming majority of the season. They went a month with only Blake Snell as a traditional starter. They traded Chris Archer without missing a beat. They found a new (and exciting) way to get more innings out of relievers who were getting the job done and get less innings from those filler starters that were killing every other team in baseball. It no longer matters to me if Jose Berrios (or any of our pitchers) starts in the 1st inning or the 2nd inning. I've gone rogue. The only thing that matters to me is: How many innings did you throw? Were those innings effective? Give the innings to those who are effective. Don't care if they are starters or relievers. This is what Tampa did. The opener just became a distracted discussion point. The subject should be bull-penning. If Taylor Rogers is hanging zeroes... Get him more innings to hang those zeroes. I believe it is decades old nonsense to follow some prehistoric formula that Rogers can only throw an inning at a time. While the manager forces Odorizzi to throw as many as humanly possible regardless if he is consistently reduced to ashes after pitch 75. That is strict adherence to a decade old system and the decade old system is costing you wins. You are correct the best answer is to find starters 1-5 that are lights out. Because 5 guys like that will hang zeroes over and over again... but very few teams... if any... are finding 5 guys like that and the result is paying Ricky Nolasco 48 million. How do you accomplish what I'm asking... Lengthen out everyone who doesn't need to be reduced because they are terrible. The 6 out save is not an impossible ask. The 9 out save isn't either. Just stop trying to get 6 innings out of a guy with a 5 plus ERA and get bullpen serious. Romero can work out of the bullpen and he doesn't have to be reduced to 1 inning at a time unless he consistently gets beat up in his 2nd inning of work. He can throw 140 innings out of the bullpen and stay stretched out for a traditional starter role in the future. Great Post Jim... I agree with you... But I'm guessing I may have lost you a little with my extended comments.

Yes Take a look what is happening now. Rumors of Matt Davidson also pitching and rumors of Lorenzen also hitting for the Reds. I’ll contend to all comers that baseball specialization was wrong for decades and decades. Shohei was the first guy because Japan allowed him to. MLB would have never allowed it. They would force him into one or the other. We would have seen multiple players with this skill set by now if the option wasn’t removed as a possibility for decades. Same goes for the Bryant/Bellinger multiple positional talents.

The Rays didn’t use an opener for Snell. Despite unquestioned success with the concept they still acquired Charlie Morton. The Rays and every team will continue to look for traditional starters who can throw lots of quality innings. The problem is that very few teams can staff a 5 man rotation with 5 guys who can throw quality innings and down with that ship they go like a bad auto-pilot. The Rays just said enough of that. No more forcing a 5+ ERA in to a traditional starter role just to eat innings below par... and it worked and now others will follow. The opener was just a creative solution but a partial solution. The opener is just sequencing... not a big deal in itself but it is what everyone is latching on to. Take a look at the innings allocation of each pitcher on the Rays... that’s where the real story is. They blurred the lines between starter and reliever innings... and it worked. Just another example that the traditional model of roster composition breing clearly outdated. Free agent compensation, positional flexibility, players who can both pitch and hit. Cue Bob Dylan “The times they are a changin”. And it’s about time.

Cool... blogger rankings!

Use of an opener is just an adjustment in sequence. It is nothing to be afraid of.

I remember... It about Killed me.

During his 2nd go round with the Twins last year... the go round that he was allowed to play catcher. He appeared to be a decent enough defensive catcher. I'm not going to claim he's top of the pile elite but he certainly wasn't an issue behind the plate in my opinion. His position flexibility is a bonus that I love but... if he can hit with decent enough defensive skill behind the plate. He's then immediately ahead of almost every catcher in the league who typically can't hit much. I'd say primary position is catcher with the occasional starts elsewhere. Both Garver and Astudillo have options... One stays up... One in Rochester as the first call up. Choose Well Front Office... Choose Well.

If you believe in him... You believe in him. This contract isn't cripplin by any stretch of the imagination. If it goes bust... Oh Well... That's life. The contract isn't crippling. Now...The Super Two status... That's a little tough to swallow... .We wasted 16 days of service time in April 2016, The OF was falling apart, the team was falling apart and he got 12 AB's during this time on the bench in April. Those 16 days of bench time would have had him pretty close to the super two cutoff. I'd build a statue for Terry Ryan in his honor... but there are times like these where I would walk up to the statue and yell at it.

Flexibility is a natural by-product of depth. The Astros have depth and they strive to keep themselves deep. Lose Marwin... Make a trade for Diaz... Problem solved. As they stand right now... they have Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Brantley and even Bregman who can play OF plus this Tucker Kid who is knocking on the door. They have Gurriel, White and Brantley to play 1B. Altuve, Diaz and Kemp to play 2B. Bregman, Gurriel and Diaz to play 3B. Correa, Bregman and Diaz who can play SS. They have purchased insurance for everything. They are bulletproof. Michael Cuddyer was asked at the Winter Meltdown about his playing multiple positions and he said something along the lines of "I'm a Ball Player". Austin, Cron, Duda... sign as many as you like but in the end... They can't all play 1B. Someone will have to track some flyballs or we end up being a team that has extreme depth at 1B and lacking depth every place else.

Yep... that’s why the possibility can’t be dismissed. Players are deployed based on availability all the time. Nick Senzel is learning OF as we speak because the Reds have Suarez and Scooter at 3B and 2B. The list of these type of position shifts is lengthy. No idea if he can play OF but playing 1B with Yankees would not be a trustworthy indicator in my opinion. Do I trust Molitor usage with the Twins as an indicator. I absolutely do not. Austin should have received OF time in September. He did not. I’m not ready to blame Tyler Austin’s ability for that. Lucas Duda could certainly push Austin out the door if Austin isn’t capable at a different position. Casualties like that happen all the time.

Ever since he signed with us... I've had Camptown Races in my head on repeat. He certainly can do that for me.

My wish is this From your fingertips to the eyeballs of the front office.

After last year... I worry about everybody.

If my math is right. The Twins just purchased one year of free agency and potentially a 2nd year. He should be 32 when he becomes a free agent. I believe it's a good gamble and I'm happy for Max. I'm just going to continue my perpetual hope that the Front Office recognizes the gamble for what it is and understands that the money being paid is the cost of doing business and is therefore fully prepared to not go down with the ship... if the ship goes down. If Kepler is hitting below average and still playing all 162 games just to try and justify the extension by forcing it... It will be a bad move. If Kepler is hitting below average but they allow someone else to surpass him for playing time despite the millions owed. I will be OK with the extension because... they took a shot. They rolled the dice and they can try again next year and the money does not bankrupt them. Extensions are fine... as long as the organization doesn't allow an extension to kill your team if it doesn't work out. With that said... Go Get EM MAX!!!

Who knows but restoring trade value is a big part of any equation. It isn’t just what they can do for us. You have to consider what they could also bring us.

Starters are absolutely more valuable. Good starters that is. And of course I’m talking in the traditional sense. But... Bad starters will kill you completely and consistently and teams are rolling out bad starters just to fit a traditional model. Even with modern usage. The goal is still to get more innings out of your top performers. If Romero is hanging zeros in the majors. Give him more innings to hang those zero. This effectively stretches him out regardless if he starts or comes in later. If he isn’t hanging zeros. He should go to Rochester for that reason and throw innings down there to improve. What I don’t want to see is 60 good innings when he is capable of 140 good innings. It’s a waste of 80 good innings.

It's not just the immediate metro. Seattle also gets Portland. Minnesota has the Twins Cities and a lot of towns with Grain Elevators. That's why MLB has to force team relocation's or possible expansion cities. Every market has been claimed by the existing franchises as part of their territory. The Mariners are going to fight tooth and nail to keep Portland from getting a franchise just like the Orioles fought the Expos move to D.C. The commissioners office and the other owners had to basically cram it down the Orioles throat. The Giants were able to stop the A's from moving to San Jose. Atlanta has the South claimed. St. Louis has Memphis. We got Sioux Falls and Fargo and of course... Little Falls.

As of February 12, 2019... It is possible to throw 140 innings or more out of a (non-traditional) bullpen. It matters not... if the the pitcher gets those 140 plus innings by starting at the beginning of the game or if the pitcher comes into the game in a different inning down the line. Starters can throw less than 5 innings and relievers can throw more than 1 inning. The only question or concern I will have is this: Will he deserve to throw 140 innings based on his performance, as it happens? I will absolutely have both eyes and ears on utilization this year and every year in the future.

Exactly... Waiting on the core to show something is just plain bad strategy. If they show something this year... you'll want the proper support to augment the improved performance. If they don't show something this year... You'll want the proper support to try and remain competitive. Our 2019 level of breakouts and bounce backs or lack thereof... isn't just worse case scenario or best case scenario... the possibilities are everywhere in between worst and best case scenarios. No matter what... proper support is necessary because we are not the Orioles in need of a complete tear down. If we are in need of a complete tear down... the organization is broken.

The players simply didn't see it coming. They were fine with the structure as long as Ricky Nolasco got 48 million and Ricky Nolasco got 48 million for years upon years. Then the number guys came along and noticed that the league minimum guys were just as productive as the Ricky Nolasco types being paid 48 million and they just stopped doing it and they stopped collectively as a group and this activated the trap door in the CBA that was always there. Now that number guys are consistently refusing to pay longer term contracts to players in their 30's... the players are going to be forced to fight back by demanding that they reach free agency earlier. It will be a battle between the owners and players for control of the 27 year old. I side with my front office within the framework of the current agreement because it was agreed upon... but I side with the players for a much better future agreement on their behalf. If I were the commissioner... I'd tell the owners to throw some free agent bones out there to keep the peace. That isn't happening... the owners are squeezing on the front end and now the back end. Therefore the players have no choice but to band together and fight back. It will be ugly.

Yep There are no victims here. Besides you and me drinking that 10 buck beer.

you forgot to include the entire San Francisco Giants roster.

I think having money allows you to absorb bad contracts. Teams with less money to spend may not end up crippled with a bad contract but They will at least limp as a result. Big money teams just carry on. In my opinion... it is possible that when you just look at the production... everybody is playing by the same arb rules so it evens out a little.

Not quite. I can't stress this enough. I don't believe in a "25th man spot" and refuse to designate someone in that sense. I only see roster spots. Tyler Austin would have a roster spot and the right to compete for as much playing time as he earns in comparison with his teammates. I believe that as soon as you designate someone for a 25th roster spot role, or designate anyone for reduced playing time and then subsequently give them one of the 25 man roster spot. You've blown it before the season even starts. The reason is real simple... we can count on someone (usually multiple players) from the "projected starting 9" to either get hurt or struggle. I have probably the same concerns with Adrianaza as you do by my concerns will manifest themselves differently. I'm saying that Adrianaza BETTER GET 300 AB's if you give him a roster spot or you have wasted that roster spot. With Adrianaza... I don't know if he is the guy I would have chose for a roster spot but if the front office has chosen him.... they must believe in him... now they must provide ample opportunity for him to justify the selection. They could have traded for someone like Profar or signed someone like Lowrie or Tulo but they didn't... instead they offered a contract to Adrianaza early. I will wait until the off-season is complete to see how the roster shapes up... I will also wait past that... right into the season before I make any judgements What I don't ever want to see again... Is struggling players playing every day like they are Mike Trout. And I especially don't want to ever hear again... "we have to play the struggling player every day because all we have is Ryan Lamarre. I got beat up last year by posters... I was accused of being a Ryan Lamarre bobo. My point about Ryan Lamarre was consistent... You gave him a roster spot with whatever methodology that I don't have access to... He's gathering dust on the bench and we have players who suck right now playing every day. Play him or cut him. Quit wasting precious 25 man roster space with players that you don't want to play. And rostering a player with the intention of playing in a diminished role is a player that you don't want to play. I've looked at playing time allocation and roster management for the Twins over the past decade. I studied it and I looked at again... 3 4 5 times and came to the same conclusion each time. The Twins consistently reward Average to Below Average to Bad Players with everyday playing time when they should be competing for that playing time. This fundamental issue has slowed our rebuild to a crawl. The reason it's crawling is because nobody is increasing in value. Just look and see what we got back for the limited trades we made. It's a laundry list of names who became nothing. Look at what our departing free agents got for contracts and how soon they were out of baseball after being everyday players for us. We got nothing of value to trade... we have no room for rookies to play and increase in value because we have been blocked up with 9 starting AVERAGE baseball players. I'm saying that if you are going to take this approach with the average baseball player. You need more of them... Don't go average one at a time with a starting 9... You need to flood it and reward the best performer. That's how you find Astudillo and Cave. That's how you find Chris Taylor, Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, JD Martinez, David Ortiz. That's how you stop Logan Morrison from playing every day... that's how you become bullet proof and how you stop yourself from going down with the ship. Speaking of Astudillo... Yep... we agree 100%. He has options... players with options remaining allows you to keep the player close by while you give a player without options a chance. Players with options remaining should blow the doors down before you waste that potential depth. Because either Castro or Garver is going to get hurt and someone needs to show up from Rochester and it better not be Bobby Wilson. One last thing... I'm still thinking of Ash's word "Appreciably" from an earlier post. We all seem to imagine in our head the starting 9 playing "Appreciably" better than the others. In the past decade... how often have we had starting players performing "Appreciably" better. There's been a few but not that many. Certainly miles from close enough to ever think we have this "STARTING 9" thing down to a science". Alright... i feel better. Til next time. I'll be back with this again I'm sure.