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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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I would be shocked as well. I believe it was Dean Wormer who said to Flounder. "No Power and No Speed is no way to go through life". Polanco is currently the 2nd best power source on the current roster. That fact illustrates two things. We can't afford to lose any more power and we need to bring in power. Here are the 2022 HR totals from the current roster. (Disclaimer: I understand Injuries played a big role in these numbers) Buxton - 28 Polanco - 16 Miranda - 15 Farmer - 14 Kepler - 9 Gordon - 9 Garlick - 9 Arraez - 8 Jeffers - 7 Larnach - 5 Kirilloff - 3 Celestino - 2 Are Larnach and Kirilloff going to hit enough bombs to make it OK to trade away Polanco? Garlick (Short Side Platoon Specialist) - 162 Plate Appearances - 9 HR's Larnach and Kirilloff 336 PA 8 HR's (COMBINED). I agree with you. I'd be shocked by a Polanco trade. A Polanco trade would signify a massive retool via FA or the start of a rebuild. If you are young on the mound and at the plate. You are rebuilding.
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It's more like selling your garage so you can buy the Porsche. The elements are going to be rough on that fancy thing you just bought. ?
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I'd wish for different results than what transpired in September but if they are in games that matter... they have a chance of actually doing something in those games. Cleveland played well. They earned it. We didn't. We earned that as well. I'm not sure many teams could survive what we had in the OF that fateful month.
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Games in September that Matter is my barometer. We had games that mattered in September last year. We failed at those games but they mattered. I'm OK... And I have the same goal for next year. You have to find the door in order to knock on it. One of these years it will open.
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The Twins Have a Corner Outfield Conundrum
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Every single team can list 8 names on a corner OF depth chart and call it a conundrum by these standards. Not many teams CAN'T list at least one name in the corner with a recent track record of above average performance. We got Gordon... so we escape that "at least one name" thing. So trade off the excess... We got Gordon.- 33 replies
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How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
Riverbrian replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The bases will be bigger, opinions may be adjusting a little but how much of an increase is coming to make it "much more important"? We may see an increase but out management is probably going to outweigh everything under the sun. You get 3 outs per inning to do damage. If you lose an out on the base paths, you have lost 33% of your allotment. That lost 33% is huge when you consider that only 31% of batters on average don't make an out. Those numbers will calm teams down on the base paths.- 62 replies
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How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
Riverbrian replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree... putting the proper fingers down at the proper time is probably the most important skill a catcher possesses but I have no suggestions on how to quantify that since you don't know the outcome on the fingers not chosen. Passed balls per game is something you can tack on to add to the overall story but like CS%, the pitchers have influence over those results. How quickly the pitcher gets the ball to the plate, how many spiked breaking pitches. Either way... there are not a ton of passed balls or stolen bases per game. So, you have to wonder if your investment focus is better spent elsewhere.- 62 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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How Big is the Twins Catching Problem?
Riverbrian replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Texas Rangers led the league in stolen bases with 128. The Rangers also led the league in caught stealing with 41. The league leading Texas Rangers were caught stealing approximately 25% of the time. 128+41 = 169. That's 1 attempt per game. Plus 7 extras. League Average is 110 Stolen Base Attempts per team over 162 games. .67 Attempts per game Omar Narvaez has a career CS% of 22%. Yadier Molina had a career CS% of 40% How many bases will be stolen at will? How much do you invest to prevent this specific line item?- 62 replies
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- ryan jeffers
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If you have to trade Polanco in order to afford Correa. You could never afford Correa in the first place.
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I walked past the refrigerators at Best Buy by accident. One of the Blue people was wrapping up a sale with a couple buying a fridge for $8,000. OK not that much... it was $7,999.99. The fridge had Wi-Fi and you could see in the fridge without opening the door so it was a magic fridge or something. A couple of fridges over was one that could be purchased for $899.99. I asked one of the Blue People if that $900 fridge kept food cold. She assured me that it did. Some people want that $8,000 fridge. Some people want that early addition of the new thing and will pay $300 for it. My 2003 Kenmore is still working fine.
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Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?
Riverbrian replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I didn't know that... Interesting stat... Get that info to Lavine immediately. ? I agree that splits need a larger sample to stabilize. That's why I'm pointing out the potential consequences of the decision to limit his appearances against right handers at this point of his career. If you platoon Jeffers... or restrict his AB's against Right Handers. Further Development is no longer a consideration, The new plan will be getting the last drop of juice out of his carcass. He won't get better at hitting right handers if he is not allowed to get better against them. The club will be deciding the role Jeffers will play this year and the years to follow. I don't know how I feel about that. It's a big decision. Falvey's quote scares me a little. -
I wouldn't look so hard for that lefty masher. 1. Lefties pitch approximately 28% of the innings thrown in major league baseball. If you are looking to sign players for duty with actual money. Find the guys who can hit Right Handers since they will throw the majority of the innings and spend actual money on them. More bang for your buck. 2. Players who only hit lefties decently in those 28% of all MLB innings thrown should have much less value and shouldn't cost much to acquire if you want them. You can pick them up off the floor... Like Kyle Garlick for example. 3. Haniger hits right handers as well as left handers. I'd lose my mind if he was platooned. ? 4. Myers looks more like left-handed pitcher specialist and platoon worthy but... but... you don't want to invest in that. 5. If you are going to platoon someone on the short side. You have to have the left handed compliment that out performs the right handed dude platooning with him in order to justify it. 5. Here are numbers from the Twins last year vs. RH hitting. Look at the lefties piled up at the bottom. https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/min/split/32/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc When you see what the lefties were actually doing against right handed pitching... there were times we were forcing it. Bring me Haniger.
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I'll take any degree of upgrade. ? Even if I agree with you Kepler. OK, Buxton and Kepler Check... Check. We still have Buxton's health and the remaining collection of Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon, Garlick and Wallner. I'm still in that Really Really Really need some OF pop boat. ?
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Projection is what those big boys do in those offices. That ability separates the men from the boys. Kepler has been handed a job two years in a row and I believe missed those projections so a third year in a row has me concerned. I'm OK waiting to see how the shift rule changes benefit Max so I'm ok with a roster spot. However... If the new rules do indeed benefit him... I'd also have to imagine that he wouldn't be the only player who benefits from them... which means the bar gets raised. If I'm the GM... Kep gets a roster spot but he competes for playing time with Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, Garlick. If he can't out perform the guys he is competing with for playing time. He gets the Tyler Duffey treatment and is released before the deadline. I like Gordon, Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner as potential but not comfortable with any of those names for firm this is our guy declarations. I don't really want two outfield positions with two large question marks (3 question marks if you consider Buxton's Historical Health). So I really really really really really want a big OF offensive Top of the Order Bat. It's the top priority on my list. Big year for Kepler in my eyes. He sinks or swims this year.
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Why Haven't The Twins Signed Omar Narváez Yet?
Riverbrian replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Ryan Jeffers has been given opportunity to hit right handed pitching and hasn't done well with those chances. His splits suggest that he should indeed be platooned. This isn't the same as Garlick who was never really given the chance to hit righties. Jeffers has been given regular AB's against RH. Either way the long term prognosis is the same. The very second you hit that platoon button with him. You immediately go from development to strip mining whatever you can get out of Jeffers before eventually tossing him into the discard pile sometime during his upcoming arb years. If you limit (I understand Derek's "not saying exclusively") his AB's against right handers, he will never correct this deficiency and therefore never get the privilege back. He won't last long on the short side platoon shelf. If you limit his appearances against right handers. Your next order of business is to quickly find that next young catcher that could be developed into real value because Jeffers will not be that guy. With that said... I support the signing of Narvaez. -
I really appreciate this post. Hearing from someone who knows the people involved is much appreciated. I wish Joe the best. Everything I've read it sounds like he has been working toward this for awhile and it sure sounds like he has earned it. I hope he enjoys this adventure. I will be a long for the ride as a fan with full support.
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Let's Worry About the Lineup This Winter
Riverbrian replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
All 12 teams that made the playoffs were 3.87 or better for ERA (Toronto was the last team in at 3.87) This is true... The Twins team ERA was 3.98. The Guardians, Padres, Mariners were mid-pack in most offensive cats and the Rays were well below average offensively. The top 8 hitting teams in 2022 all made the playoffs The Phillies were a terrible defensive team according to the metrics.- 27 replies
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Analyze This: Jose Abreu Is the Bat Minnesota Needs
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Look at our current roster. Make up a batting order with the current guys on the roster. Stare at the lineup a while. If you still don't see it. Add 2022 stats to each name in the order. Look at the lineup awhile. If you still don't see it. Just quit trying. Below is how Roster Resource has our offense currently ordered. Kepler is currently slated to bat 4th. We NEED at least two bats that can join the Arraez, Buxton and Polanco group at the top of the order. Abreu is the type of hitter who can join that group. Sharpen the top of the lineup, lengthen the rest of batting order, deepen the overall hitting talent. ORIGINAL SIGNING INFO Prospect Rank Power Rank 2022 STATS more_vert ORDER POS # PLAYER BATS AGE HOW ACQUIRED Options MLB Service Time Year Team Rd Pick Ovr Rank ('22) Org Rank ('22) Org Rank ('21) Ovr PA HR SB AVG OBP SLG 1 1B 2 Luis Arraez L 25.6 Amateur FA (VEN) Nov'13 2 3.121 NOV 2013 MIN 52 603 8 4 .316 .375 .420 2 CF 25 Byron Buxton R 28.9 Drafted 1st Rd (2) '12 n/a 6.160 2012 MIN 1 2 144 382 28 6 .224 .306 .526 3 SS 11 Jorge Polanco S 29.4 Amateur FA (DOM) Jul'09 n/a 6.024 JUL 2009 MIN 134 445 16 3 .235 .346 .405 4 RF 26 Max Kepler L 29.8 Amateur FA (GER) Jul'09 n/a 6.152 JUL 2009 MIN 164 446 9 3 .227 .318 .348 5 3B 64 Jose Miranda R 24.4 Drafted 2nd Rd (73) '16 2 0.157 2016 MIN 2 73 14 129 483 15 1 .268 .325 .426 6 2B 1 Nick Gordon L 27.1 Drafted 1st Rd (5) '14 0 1.136 2014 MIN 1 5 166 443 9 6 .272 .316 .427 7 LF 13 Trevor Larnach L 25.7 Drafted 1st Rd (20) '18 2 1.101 2018 MIN 1 20 357 180 5 0 .231 .306 .406 8 DH 19 Alex Kirilloff L 25.0 Drafted 1st Rd (15) '16 1 1.141 2016 MIN 1 15 399 156 3 0 .250 .290 .361 9 C 27 Ryan Jeffers R 25.5 Drafted 2nd Rd (59) '18 2 2.089 2018 MIN 2 59 323 236 7 0 .208 .285 .363 -
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Twins Showing Interest in OF Mitch Haniger
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
They saved 5 million and got (in my opinion)a better player and healthier. Id hate to penalize Haniger for Teoscar being in town. I do agree though... the medicals should be a concern. -
Can the Twins Count On Starter’s Health?
Riverbrian replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree Currently 15 spots on the 40 man roster are occupied by starting pitchers. There are only so many spots on the 40 man roster that can be allocated to starting pitchers before you don't have anybody playing C. Teams need 7 to 10 staring pitchers (maybe more) to get through any season so the 40 man SP allocation will have to remain high because it's a numbers game on the mound. Let the young arms develop into the pitchers we need them to be. We should be Bundy or Archer or Shoemaker or Happ type free this year.- 21 replies
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- sonny gray
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Twins Showing Interest in OF Mitch Haniger
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I'm not going down this rabbit hole any further. Teams do have the right to re-sign players and they have the right to extend players so they don't reach free agency. They can also make a qualifying offer to complicate the players free agency. Players also have the right become free agents and negotiate with other teams. I understand the process. Let's refocus -- You said I disagree and I posted the actual offensive stats of both. You replied I personally think the Mariners did better with Teoscar. That isn't a slam on Haniger by saying Teoscar is better. However, it doesn't matter what I think about the Mariners though. I think Haniger is a big offensive upgrade over Kepler for the TWINS. I think the Twins desperately need a couple of top of the order bats to make sure that Kepler is NOT a top of the order bat. -
Twins Showing Interest in OF Mitch Haniger
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
After 6 years of service. Players are eligible for free agency. It says so in the CBA. -
The Trade Target that Fixes The Twins Outfield
Riverbrian replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The Angels maybe finally addressing the issue that has plaqued them for a long time. Depth If they keep this up. Having Trout and Ohtani might matter in 2023.- 29 replies
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- max kepler
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Twins Showing Interest in OF Mitch Haniger
Riverbrian replied to Vanimal46's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Agreed. As hard as I've been on Kepler. I think the thing to do is roster him since you are paying the 8 million anyway and see if Kepler can improve and help the team out. We will need that Buxton replacement. However... what you don't do is say we have Kepler so we don't need anybody else. In the case of Haniger being that guy. Health is exactly why you don't do it. Everything else is why you absolutely do it. If the club can build sufficient depth. If Larnach and Kirilloff and Gordon and Kepler can show they can help us win games. A Haniger injury won't matter as much and if Hanger is healthy... that would be awesome to have Haniger, Larnach, Kirilloff, Gordon and Kepler all getting it done. I like Haniger but I'm ok with anyone they bring in... As long as that guy that is a top of the order bat. And in bring in another one along with Haniger, Correa or Drury or anyone that will OPS over .750 for the top of the order. The team will look a lot better if Gordon or Miranda is hitting 5 or 6 of 7 in the order. It's the off-season... Load up

