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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    UZR ignores all plays determined affected by a shift. Determined by a stringer but will include plays not determined to have been affected even if a shift is employed. (The stat itself, is attempting to ignore shifting in order to keep the zones and data of the past valid). His range will only be measured if he stands here. The Twins shift 36% of the time. The more you shift, the less data used, the less data used, the increased weight of individual plays. Weighting is already insanely high due to the routine-ness of most plays and the total chances each player gets over the course of the season. Arraez for example: Missed a month before being called up, He had 40% of his playing time somewhere besides 2B. the Twins shift 36% of the time. And... most plays are simply ground balls hit within easy reach of where he is standing... even more so because of the shift. So... how reliable is his 2B UZR rating that you quote? Just one play not made in a zone where a play is usually made is weighted HEAVILY and will take a lot of time to stabilize., if you don't play a lot of time at that position, or if you the data doesn't count because of the shift and your team shifts alot... the less chances to stabilize it. UZR is half baked.
  2. Riverbrian
    I agree the play wasn't routine. Probably a ball that you hope a MLB player catches but certainly not routine. I think you are spot on in your assessment of the play. Also... I have no idea what went into the front office decision making but I'm reasonably sure that with the presence of Schoop on the roster... the fact that Arraez was in the lineup makes an assumption pretty easy that his ankle was tested and came out OK. Putting an injured player in the lineup, is working way too hard to keep a decent player out of the lineup against a left-handed starter. I really don't think the Twins are that down on Schoop to do that type of thing.
  3. Riverbrian
    I worry this was some sort of script that they tried to follow. Kind of like the offensive coordinator scripting the first 20 plays or something. No idea the reasoning... but... it happened for some reason.
  4. Riverbrian
    First... Finding an exact match for the conditions will be really difficult. Second... It doesn't matter what happened in Game One or Game Two... They were both losses including a supposed soul destroying 9-0 (game two) loss with Madison Bumgarner (the future world series hero) getting tagged during the loss. Game three is going to be a fresh set of zeroes on the scoreboard no matter what happened in the previous two games. Third... What the Giants didn't do is throw the back end of the bullpen in game one with a one run deficit. They were staring at 3 run deficit and they turned to George Kontos who had a 2.47 ERA with 44 K's in 43.2 innings over 44 appearances in 2012. Sergio Romo was there in 2012 and he is probably wondering why we turned to Stashak.
  5. Riverbrian
    Not really... What really matters is that all margin of error is now gone. They can't suffer a bloop hit now. The Reds destroyed, dismantled and out everything'd the Giants in San Francisco in 2012. The Giants survived it... this can happen again. The odds are against it because all margin of error is now gone... but, It will be a fresh set of zeroes tonight on the scoreboard and what happened on Saturday was yesterday. Win tonight, You play again on Tuesday... Win Tuesday... You play on again on Friday. It's been done before.
  6. Riverbrian
    I am over the moon happy with Baldelli and I am over the moon happy with Falvey and Lavine BUT... IF ...after two games of do or die playoff baseball. No matter if those games produced wins or losses. IF... you have stats that look like this. Stashak 2 Games 1.2 innings Romo 1 game 0.2 innings May 1 Game 0.1 innings Rogers 0 games 0 innings You have a first time manager and a fairly young front office making a significant mistake. The Twins are the only team in the playoffs utilizing the back end of their bullpen before they utilize the front end of the bullpen. I'm not saying the results would have been different but when they turned to Stashak with a one run deficit in game one, and did so with all of Romo, May and Rogers available or even letting Duffey throw another inning. They didn't take into account the stark difference between Game one of the ALDS and Game 95 of the regular season. The only thing I can think of... is that they tried to keep the bullpen fresh in anticipation of game two with Dobnak starting. So they tried to wing and a prayer through game one. Which was still close! Just to focus on game two instead. Just a constructive criticism. THROW YOUR BEST ARMS... RIGHT NOW... Don't save them for tomorrow. There may not be a tomorrow as you just learned. Would you rather throw Romo and May with a 1 run deficit or a 7 run deficit. Your save them for tomorrow plan just plain disappeared on you. So you end up choosing Stashak in a one run deficit and Romo and May in a 7 run deficit.
  7. Riverbrian
    Nope... I get the Capital Letters. I've been RB in Twins Territory longer than he has.
  8. Riverbrian
    First off... This ain't over yet. If they win Monday... they play Tuesday... If they win Tuesday... They play Thursday. 13 separate times the Twins have won three games in a row this year. Lots of talk about a difference in talent. The Yankees won 103 games, the Twins won 101 games. Whatever difference in talent you are all talking about, it amounted to 2 extra wins over the course of 162 games. Coming back from an 0-2 deficit in a DS has happened before. The Yankees came back against the Indians from 0-2 in 2017. 2015... The Jays came back from 0-2 against the Rangers... That was the Bautista Bat Flip series. 2012... The Giants almost didn't win one of their World Series because the Reds had them pinned 0-2. 2nd loss of that series for the Giants was a blow out, bigger than what we just experienced. The Reds made a big statement in game two and they made that statement in San Francisco. The Giants had to win 3 in a row in Cincinnati and they did. Losing the first two games sucks... It eliminates all margin of error and puts our backs firmly against the wall and it decreases our odds of advancing to horrible levels but... what happened yesterday was yesterday. You put the uniform on and make some plays.
  9. Riverbrian
    I agree but they have to take my phone calls and listen.
  10. Riverbrian
    If I were to guess. I'm not in the room so it is a guess. My theory... I believe the front office and Rocco put together a plan to start Dobnak. But, since they don't totally trust Dobnak... (they shouldn't after only 28 innings and rising out of nowhere from Low A). They probably had a condition that Dobnak would require full support from the bullpen in order to start game 2. In other words... plan for a short Dobnak start. Meaning the plan to start Dobnak Game two is intact if he doesn't have to burn the bullpen Game One. If they were to burn the bullpen out in Game One... They would have to then name Odorizzi the Game Two starter. With a hope that Odorizzi can go more innings than they will allow Dobnak to throw. This desire to stick with this plan, led to using the very back end of the bullpen with a one run deficit instead of getting another inning out of Duffey, then turning to Rogers, Romo or May. Stashak has been decent this year but he has no high leverage appearances. He's Mike Morin... decent numbers... not trusted in high leverage. And here he is with the ball in hand... making his first high leverage appearance because they want to save the bullpen for Dobnak... who they don't trust. They go they someone they don't trust during the regular season (Stashak)... to protect against their concerns about going with a guy that they didn't trust during the regular season(Dobnak). IT'S OCTOBER!!! You go with your guys now. The ones you trust and have rewarded that trust. The Nats are going to use their starters and toe dip into the bullpen. Now... Everybody can rest when the playoffs are over. You don't save arms for tomorrow because there may not be a tomorrow. A 1 run deficit is not impossible to make up, you don't throw the back end of the bullpen. This team hit 307 home runs... they can find the fence. But if you allow that lead to stretch in the middle innings... You need someone to hang zeroes. Good luck getting 3 runs back against Chapman, Britton, Ottovino and Crew. You were choosy all year on who you threw. during the regular season. It's the playoffs... now is the time to be choosy... Not back then. You shouldn't be choosy during the regular season so you can choose better right now. The got it backwards.
  11. Riverbrian
    Maybe we are... Maybe we aren't. WIth the Yankees... What you want to avoid is the Yankees grabbing the lead in the middle innings. They have the pen to make coming from behind no fun at all. , So, in my opinion... we need to use our pen (our best pitchers) earlier and longer. I don't want to save either Duffey or Rogers for 9th inning closing duties in case we happen to have a lead worth closing in the ninth. By saving a closer, you limit that guy to maybe 3 innings in a 5 game series. That would severely limit their use. I'd rather see Duffey and Rogers get us through those middle innings... or when needed to hang zeroes instead of hoping that Berrios and Odorizzi don't float hangers for a 3 run Yankee bomb in the 6th after the lineup has turned over a couple of times just because that is what is typically done with a starting pitcher in July. I don't believe this series with be won with either starting rotations winning it. The bullpens are where both teams best pitchers reside. It'll be what team coughs up the early lead and what bullpen can hold it in the face of a couple of clubs that hit 307 and 306 home runs respectively. . There is the Astro's model... 3 Hall fo Fame starters with a little bullpen support. There is the Brewers model... Questionable starters with a ton of bullpen support to fill out the innings. Both the Yankees and Twins should be somewhere in between these. We certainly don't have the starters to do what the Astros will do and we shouldn't even try. I have no idea how Baldelli will manage it... but, I am excited to see whatever happens and can't wait for it to happen.
  12. Riverbrian
    If Baldelli feels that way... I wouldn't argue with him. Duffey has been good. I think of Rogers because he has been good for longer. Bottom Line: The Bullpen is going to be needed to cover some innings... This won't be like a game in July. We will need Rogers, Duffey, May, Romo... all of them for more innings than we are accustomed.
  13. Riverbrian
    He's our best pitcher. I wouldn't save him for the closing of games exclusively. He goes into the game whenever you need your best. I'm using him for as long and often as needed. He can rest in the off season. You don't hold anyone back now.
  14. Riverbrian
    To avoid derailing this topic. I've created another discussion on this subject in the "Other Baseball" forum. Feel free to take this debate over there.
  15. Riverbrian
    Agree with your overall sentiment. It’s baseball and weird things happen. Everyone is expecting a slugfest between the Yankees and Twins and we may end up with pitching duels and if that happens I won’t be shocked because the baseball gods love that sort of thing. The game isn’t played on paper and this is small sample size on steroids. The Nats Brewers last night was exhibit 20,689 of the baseball gods at work. I won’t have time to list the other 20,688 examples. When it comes to this article... Roles no longer matter... it’s all hands on deck. Do we have enough pitching? Do the Yankees? I don’t know. Let’s find out. P.S. I disagree with the misplay characterization on the rookie in RF. That was crazy spin on a ball in a situation that any RF would charge full speed to make a throw home to nail the tying run if possible. I think nearly every RF would be in danger of a similar result. Bad hip provided by the baseball gods. Much like the broken bat bloop hit from Zimmerman.
  16. Riverbrian
    Whatever the path it takes I guess. The end result is what I'm mostly interested in. If Lewis can play multiple positions... I'd like to see him utilized at multiple positions. If I have to wait until he reaches the majors to actually create that type of player. I'll have to wait until he reaches the majors.
  17. Riverbrian
    As usual, I'm talking in broad strokes. I have no idea what Royce Lewis is defensively. I've read reports but I typically don't take a ton of stock in those reports when I'm not sure who is writing them. However, with him playing other positions in Arizona (which I'm all for) it suggests that there are better defensive shortstops available. If that's the case (not saying it is). I only see benefit to both Royce and the organization if he can play multiple positions in Rochester. Develop a super utility player like Marwin, Like Bellinger, Like Bryant. A guy who can play every day and play at whatever position the team needs him to play each day. Personally, I believe the Twins will have similar depth next year to what they had this year. We need Marwin, Arraez, Astudillo and Adrianza just to get through the season. I agree that Baldelli was fearless when it came to moving Arraez around to get him AB's (he had to) and I love it because I love depth and the required flexibility that comes with depth. However... despite my happiness for this willingness... I'm wondering why they wouldn't prepare in advance for it at the minor league level... instead of cold at the MLB level, even if I'm not afraid of cold. Bellinger is an amazing player and it's hard to lower his value at all... but he is indeed less valuable to the Dodgers if he was limited to only playing 1B because Muncy would have to play less as a result once you lock him into 1B throwing away Bellinger's flexibility. When Lewis knocks the door down with his bat... We don't know what position we will need him to play. We don't know who will get hurt to open a roster spot. If Lewis was Tatis like defensively at SS... Never mind... let him stay at SS. Then you start prepping Polanco to play other positions because Lewis is going to take his spot at SS. If Lewis is average at SS and he can make catches with the range he showed in the video above. He's is more valuable than Bellinger is defensively. I'd start making him a Bellinger at the minor league level and then wait for that bat to finish cooking. And I say this... not knowing what Lewis is capable of as a defensive player. I really have no idea. Just a fundamental discussion.
  18. Riverbrian
    I absolutely understand your logic and I don't disagree that players can be moved to different positions quickly. As a matter of fact.. players are moved to different positions quickly all the time. I'm not afraid of that type of abrupt defensive adjustment. However, the one thing that I am reasonably sure of it this: When Royce Lewis makes his MLB Debut... It most likely won't be out of spring training with a static starting job to himself. It will most likely come after an injury that requires a replacement and you don't know where the injury is going to occur. Lewis may be ready for call up with his bat and playing everyday at SS in Rochester when the MLB 2B gets hurt. Welcome to the majors Royce... You are in the lineup tonight at a position you have never played before. Again, I'm not afraid of that specific need based move... Just wondering if a little preparation before hand at the minor league level increases options for both the club and player.
  19. Riverbrian
    There is only one way to find them. You hand them the ball.
  20. Riverbrian
    Include the front office in that. Based on his usage... they didn't know. Congrats on a great year. I've enjoyed this season immensely and it isn't over yet.
  21. Riverbrian
    You may be right. However... the only thing that we can agree on is that Perez isn’t good enough. We got that data. Now we got people who want to reach into the Dobnak raffle drum as an alternative to Perez based on either his 20 innings or lack of faith in Perez and Gibson. And if you think 20 innings is sufficient to count him among the 30 pitchers they tried. Then Dobnak should be our number one starter with his under 2.00 ERA. He won!!!
  22. Riverbrian
    The front office obviously had opinions that led to how things transpired. I think they liked Martin Perez's stuff and I'm sure they liked what Perez was doing in April and May and were working like mad to get him back to where he was then. I won't pretend to know who they should have tried. But, the front office needs to find someone to try. That is their job. Nobody gets through the season with just 5 starters... nobody. I made the same argument last year with Logan Morrison playing every day and I make the same argument this year with Martin Perez. Martin Perez is not producing at an acceptable level... Logan Morrison wasn't producing at an acceptable level. They are both producing very low bars to clear. Don't let sub par play stop you from seeing if someone can clear that very low bar. I don't care if the player is a top ranked prospect, unranked prospect or a AAAA Waiver claim. You have to go to the next man up. Because if anyone can clear that very low bar. You have improved your baseball team even if it is incremental. I don't blame the front office for not requiring a starter at the deadline. The prices must have been too high and they have a long term plan in place to consider... However, the very second that they didn't overpay to acquire a starter. They were committed to having enough to get the job done in house. This has been a playoff team since April. 5 starters with Perez on a 11 start bad streak at the deadline was not going to be enough... Once a starter wasn't acquired, this is when they got to find whoever the in-house option is... instead of waiting for the wheels to come off on the eve of the playoffs to take a guess on Dobnak. But, I'll say again... I am over the moon happy with the front office. We've made significant strides forward and I'm just asking them to take the same approach with the pitching staff as they are with the offense this year. The same approach that allowed Arraez to continue his good play and get a real chance to beat out an 8 million dollar free agent in Schoop who really isn't performing that badly. Dobnak wasn't given a chance to be better than Perez... Now Perez is our 3rd starter and we are sitting here saying we'd rather use Dobnak in game two. I know I don't want Perez, we have enough information to make that call... Meanwhile, the club has gone out of its way to tell me through usage that it doesn't totally trust Dobnak.
  23. Riverbrian
    You say that there wasn't anybody down in Rochester saying "Try Me" instead of Perez. I assume you mean... they weren't producing decently enough to earn the right to be tried and I get that. I disagree with Dobnak... His numbers were quite strong but I get what you are saying. However... I look at it from the completely opposite direction. I'm not looking at Rochester for someone to earn it. I'm saying it was the production from Perez saying "We should try" somebody else. Perez wasn't earning it and Perez had to be addressed somehow, someway because the offense was going to bring this team to the playoffs.
  24. Riverbrian
    That’s the point that Jorgenswest was making. The team is tracking spin rates and a variety of different things that suggest that Perez is better. I get this and believe that data is important but as we can all see... The data can be wrong. It has been wrong before and in the case of Perez it was wrong in the timeframe it needed to be right in. The pursuit of the expected result to match that data has led us to no options but a raffle drum pull in late September.
  25. Riverbrian
    Agreed... You can’t prepare to lose your best pitcher but you can prepare to try and replace your worst pitcher and that replacement improves a roster spot makes the team better and makes the drop from losing your best pitcher less of a drop. As for Dobnak in your reversal of the Arraez scenario. If Dobnak gets the ball and fails. You now know and that is good information that is needed right now for playoff selection. If Dobnak fails... he is off the list of choices for a playoff spot. You are no longer picking blind because you know. Then you choose Smeltzer or Graterol instead. Our option now is Perez who we know is bad or a raffle drum selection who we pray is better but don’t know. This could have been planned for by not settling for substandard Perez production. They bet on the wrong horse and kept betting on it.
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