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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Rengifo is the only player I'd consider giving up talent to acquire. I'd love to see him in a Twins uniform. Add Ben Joyce. I'd love to see him in the Twins bullpen. I'd be real interested in those two. After those two. Not interested in anyone... not even the tiniest bit.
- 27 replies
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- jo adell
- taylor ward
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Margot, Kepler, Santana, Farmer and Thielbar will not be on the roster in 2025. That is 5 roster spots to fill and the money that comes off the books will be immediately spent by contract increases and arbitration raises. Back to my pet subject... back to it because it's important in consideration of future plans. Margot, Farmer and Santana are currently the right handed hitting platoon brigade. Are the Twins going to find three more of these types of players with almost no money to spend on them? Will they convert Castro, Miranda and Martin to those roles? Is there any reason to believe... that they will suddenly stop sheltering left handed hitters? I ask all of you to look at who is still under contract in 2025 and put them in the roles they have been utilized this year and then look at the holes. The current template is 5 every day players 6 Platoon Players (3 Left/3 Right) 2 Catchers Good luck to all of you with the courage to try making it function.
- 92 replies
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- pablo lopez
- chris paddack
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If a tree falls while the broadcasting rights are being held hostage. Does it make a sound?
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Miracles Performed by Royce Lewis
Riverbrian replied to RandBalls Stu's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Brilliant!!! -
3 Games post Lewis replacing Julien and all of Rocco's cards have been displayed. With Buxton and Lewis both getting maintenance days yesterday not only did we get to see the vs RH and vs LH lineup but we also got to see how the maintenance days will be handled. 1. Maintenance days will occur when right handers are on the mound. 2. Buxton and Lewis are going to get maintenance days and I believe Rocco has decided to rest them on the same day to compromise one single day as opposed to compromising two days with them having separate maintenance days. 3. Margot did not get the start in CF with Buxton getting a maintenance day. 4. Castro has added Julien's role as the 2B against RH pitchers while keeping his backup SS and CF jobs. This will increase Farmers playing time because Farmer has to play 2B when Castro is needed elsewhere. 5. The importance of Castro is off the charts
- 143 replies
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- edouard julien
- royce lewis
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Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The News is -- Cory Provus is the New Television Play by Play Announcer. Who would the media want to talk to about this? My guess is Cory Provus or Dick Bremer. -
Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
All you need is Google. Type in "Cory Provus Blackouts" and hit enter. A ton of hits follow. Cory didn't do one single off the cuff interview. He's getting the word out and he isn't getting the word out because he decided to become a rogue messenger the first day on the job. When people are hired for high profile positions like this one. They get the word out. They try to get people excited about the change. Strike while the iron is hot. Cool potential outrage over the replacement of a long time friend like Dick Bremer. This is standard formation directly out of the playbook marketing 101. When "No More Blackouts" appear over and over again... and they appear over and over again (Just do a Google search) they are shaping the message. It's more than a reasonable guess that both Cory Provus and the Minnesota Twins believed that "No More Blackouts" was going to be the result of whatever was about to happen. -
Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
From Do-Hyoung Park December 1st, 2023 11:48AM "Cory Provus said that accessibility of the Twins TV broadcast for more fans was a very important factor in making his decision to move to TV. He says he's been told there will be no blackouts of the broadcast moving forward". -
Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
If I had to guess. Corey Provus made those statements after he was announced as the replacement for Dick Bremer. That's called marketing. In with the new, out with the old. New broadcast team, new package, get ready to purchase this new exciting thing that will end the blackouts forever. If I had to guess. This was coordinated and something went wrong down the road. Corey was clearly told the plan when he left the radio booth. This was not the plan if I had to guess. -
Still can't watch the Twins - I can't let this go.
Riverbrian replied to Riverbrian's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I can't speak for everyone... only for myself. I was prepared for the new thing to be rolled out this off-season. I spoke with my wife about the possibility of dropping cable because I thought there was a very good possibility that the Twins would not be available on cable. I was waiting on the Twins... when the decision was made to go back to Bally for another year. The discussion was tabled in our house and honestly... my wife was relieved that it was over for the time being. I understand why exclusivity is necessary in such deals but I never thought that the Twins would end up in the position of selling exclusive rights to a company that can't provide the broadcast. While not intended... In the end it simply means that they bought exclusive rights to prevent the broadcast. People can spin this anyway they want to spin it. If the Twins had it to do over again... I am 100% positive they wouldn't do this again. Signing a deal with a company in bankruptcy proceedings had this potential. Would I pay $180 a year like the D-backs are charging. Yes I would but cable would be gone because I'm not going to add significantly to my entertainment package just so I can be manipulated by whatever version of slanted news programming or watch people try to decide what home they want to buy in the Bahamas. I understand that I can pay $80 bucks a month for Fubo and get my Twins back. I'm not going to do it... mainly out of principle because I didn't ask to be put in this position and I'm not going to make a major entertainment redesign only to have Comcast and Diamond come to an agreement or have the Twins make another off-season announcement that they are back on cable for 2025. I don't blame Diamond and I don't blame Comcast. I blame the Twins because it's their product and they sold it under the terms that allowed this. Diamond - Comcast... they have just taught me to not take anything for granted when it comes to them. I am more than ready to cut the cord as a result. I'm waiting for the Twins to pull their head out of their ass before I determine where I'm going to insert mine. Until then... I'm just getting used to not watching the Twins. -
Certainly the Yankees have enough money to afford a Margot type so Verdugo doesn't have to face that lefthander. 😉
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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Game Thread: Twins vs Yanks 6/5/24 6:05 PM
Riverbrian replied to Dave The Dastardly's topic in Archived Game Threads
Looking at the lineup... I'm not seeking applause... but I nailed it. Rocco is pretty steady and therefore predictable with his lineups. Here's how he will deploy going forward Right/Left - Multi Position Every Day DH - Larnach/Miranda C - Jeffers and Vazquez (Split Duties) 1B - Miranda/Santana 2B - Castro/Farmer 3B - Lewis SS - Correa LF - Kirilloff/Castro CF - Buxton RF - Kepler/Margot -
It's interesting to note that the Yankees do not platoon. I'm not suggesting any sort of winning causation. Granted... they have a pretty talented group of starters but I find it interesting that they are not platooning. Soto, Rizzo and Verdugo are their left handed hitters... they face lefties. Verdugo has a career OPS of .666 against lefties. .777 against righties. Verdugo is facing left handers.
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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It just shows the commitment to this platoon system. Along with a larger commitment to shielding the left handed guys against left handed guys more so than shielding the right handed guys against the right handed guys. If you spend 15 million dollars combined on Farmer, Margot and Santana in an attempt to be tougher on left handers and shelter the young left handed hitters... they need to play against left handers. That means the 3 left handed hitters are coming out and replaced by the 3 guys rostered at 15 million dollars who specialize in facing left handed pitchers. I think the Twins would have been better off spending that 15 million on a single player who could strengthen that group of 5 who play every day instead. Someone with better stats against right handed pitching but... it is what it is. With Julien down in the minors... it's one less left handed hitter available to come out of the lineup when Rodon hits the stage. So... if Margot is to play against Rodon who else are you going to take out. It's the lefty... Kepler is the guy who has to come out. Farmer will play tonight... Santana will play tonight. Larnach and Kirilloff should be joining Kepler on the bench. Unless they rest, Lewis or Buxton tonight. Then Kepler will have to play. But... Rocco will grit his teeth making that decision.
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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Agree with you. With 6 spots committed to left/right splits and 2 catchers. We have room for 5 everyday players. If they are currently middle of the order quality is a question. We will find out tonight for sure but right now those 5 appear to be: Correa, Lewis, Buxton, Castro and Miranda. You nail it... This is where upgrading would have the most bang for the buck. Swapping Margot for a different right handed guy doesn't provide a bunch of bang for the buck.
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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I admit that I am making no attempts to factor in defense but .656 career for Margot and Kepler is a pretty clean comparison over thousands of AB's. Weather Kepler should or shouldn't be platooned is a whole other debate. However, Kepler hasn't started the last 10 games against a left hander so he is being platooned at least at the moment. We will see what happens tonight since the roster was just adjusted with Julien replaced by Lewis but my assumption is that he will not start against Rodon tonight and the platoon will continue. Basically... All the math that I did wasn't to support what I think they should do but an elementary attempt to show the result of what the Twins are doing.
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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Agreed in the case of Margot and I agree that platoons always make sense on paper. There is no denying the platoon advantage has proven itself over decades of data. For comparison sake. Let's forget about the young developing players who need to establish a track record to avoid being Joc Pederson at best. Let's just use players with a little bit of a track record. Career OPS Kepler vs LH: .656 Career OPS Margot vs LH: .758 Career OPS Kepler vs RH: .788 Career OPS Margot vs RH: .656 OPS isn't the be all end all but using OPS... It's pretty clear as a down and dirty stat. The numbers suggest that Kepler should face RH and Margot should face LH the platoon makes sense on paper and we have a partnership to handcuff based on the numbers. The 26 man roster commitment to it... is where the "On Paper" falls apart. In 2024 - Margot's equal 61 PA's against Right Handers and Left Handers thus far in the season is the Twins trying real hard to stay committed to it but the right handers keep stepping on the mound and become impossible to avoid. It's easy math - 50% of his AB's are against Right Handers. In 2024 - Kepler has 113 PA's against Right Handers and 24 PA's against left handers this year. 82% against Right Handers and 18% of his AB's are against left handers. In 2024 - There are 4 players who are tied for the plate appearance lead in 2024. Altuve, Arraez, Semien and Mikael Garcia all have 251 plate appearances. Because they lead all of baseball in plate appearances I'm going to assume that they are not being platooned and that's why I'm using those 4 players. Those 4 players combine to: 748 PA's vs RH 317 PA's vs LH That's 70% vs RH and 30% vs LH for the 4 every day guys not being platooned. In order to drop Kepler a total of 12% against left handers (30% to 18%) and play the platoon advantage. You give the platoon advantage right back and more by batting Margot 50% of the time against Right Handers. You give 20% in order to gain 12% and that's just the percentage which actually calms the optics a little because it doesn't reflect the imbalance of righties and lefties on the mound of the other 29 teams. Ideally... You'd like Kepler to have zero AB's against lefties and Margot zero AB's against right handers but the disparity isn't going to let that happen. However... let's use the zero AB model (which will never happen because of the disparity). Using 137 PA's that Kepler has taken this year. 30% against left handers would be 41 AB's. In order to shield Kepler from taking all of those 41 plate appearances against left handers you have to give Margot 61 AB's against right handers because Margot has 61 AB's against Right handers this year. That's plus 20 more AB's of .656 OPS on the bad side. It cost you 61 AB's of .656 to prevent 41 AB's of .656. Again... Career OPS for Kepler against left is .656 and Career OPS for Margot against right is .656 so they make perfect comparisons. Not to mention that it takes two roster spots in order to platoon in this fashion. Now times it by 3 because Farmer, Margot and Santana are all left handed pitcher specialists. With 13 spots... that's your entire extra player inventory used up to shield Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner and Julien from left handers. Here's the team total... Kirilloff, Julien, Larnach(Wallner) add up to 504 plate appearances combined this season. 30% of that would be 151 PA's against left handers if they were not platooned. Santana, Margot and Farmer combined add up to 269 PA's against Right Handers so far this year. That's 118 extra AB's on the bad side just to try and prevent the 30%. They are giving up more than they get. Even the Lefty Specialist Poster Boy Kyle Garlick faced right handers 44% of the time. Which is of course 14% more than the 30% you are trying to protect. Not to mention... the atrophying taking place with our young left handed hitters which means that they will always have to protect them and therefore always need to roster Margot types year after year after year after year. Anyway... I agree with Margot being the wrong choice but I'm not sure more extreme splits will cover the imbalance. The Twins have simply over cooked this thing and are playing the split the wrong way.
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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2024 Margot: 61 Plate Appearances vs RH 61 Plate Appearances vs LH Career Margot .656 OPS vs RH This is what happens when you roster short siders. They may be left hander specialists but they face more right handers. In this case with the current numbers of 61 PA's against each hand. The team has to absorb 50% struggling performance in order to get a slight platoon advantage against 25% of the pitchers. Hard to justify
- 51 replies
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- matt wallner
- trevor larnach
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Maybe... Could be. However... He does appear to skip some when passing that message along.
- 143 replies
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- edouard julien
- royce lewis
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Maybe Jeffers has a minor ouch. Just a random guess, rationalization.
- 143 replies
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- edouard julien
- royce lewis
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Rocco has been pretty consistent with a 50-50 behind the plate and it is Vazquez's turn but Jeffers was getting extra AB's by DH'ing against the lefties. I just fully expect that Jeffers would not DH against left handers going forward with Miranda taking over those duties against left handers. And if that's the case... I'd expect the catching rotation to go 67-33 in favor of Jeffers. Vazquez starting tonight could mean that the 50-50 still lives. You make a good point. They may want to ease Lewis back in and DH him tomorrow. Tomorrow's lineup will be interesting and should provide lots of clues.
- 143 replies
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- edouard julien
- royce lewis
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