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Whammy

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Everything posted by Whammy

  1. They don't project Buxton to have a DRC+ over 100 until around his 85th percentile projection.
  2. Anyone know how PECOTA deals with pitchers batting stats? There are no columns in the "pitching" spreadsheet for batting statistics and there are no pitchers listed in the "batting" spreadsheet (except for Brendan McCay)
  3. PECOTA has Houston at a pretty middle of the road 63 HBP. I'd say that's low
  4. 50th percentile team homeruns = 284 ETA: which would be 2nd to Houston (288)
  5. While the spreadsheet still has Maeda on the Dodgers, they have him as a far more valuable player (WARP) than Berrios. 50th percentile results: Maeda - 3.6 WARP Berrios - 1.6 WARP (Basically the same as Pineda and Odorizzi) So obviously PECOTA is pretty down on Jose.
  6. After about 2 minutes of looking at it, this spreadsheet alone is worth the annual subscription.
  7. I found the answer to my player projections question. Since I have the annual subscription, I am able to download the excel file.
  8. PECOTA has the Twins projected for 93.4 which is 4th highest (LA, NYY, and HOU ahead of us) and has us handily winning the division, beating out Cleveland by 7.3 games and Chicago by 10.9 games. I have two main questions. First to other Baseball Prospectus subscribees. When do individual projections get released. I've just been subscribed for 8 months or so, so this is my first PECOTA day. I assume all the projection stuff is behind the paywall, or is some of it public access (side question: do different BP Subscription levels get you access to different amounts of projection data?) And this leads me to my second question, which is for the moderators.... Is the stuff I've shared so far acceptable? I made sure to only share stuff that's super findable on social media. I assume it's a nuanced discussion about sharing enough to have discussions about the info, but not so much that the paywall gets compromised.
  9. I think we've learned one uncontroverted fact in this thread. No matter what happens, about half of us will be happy and half unhappy.
  10. While I agree with this assessment, we've already said that a couple times this offseason and each of the previous two offseasons had deals done in spring training. So......Off season not over?
  11. The answer is the simple and obvious one... it depends. The reality of the situation is that the Front Office DOES have a maximum budget. It's silly of us to say "there's no salary cap. They can spend whatever they want" They are already at their highest payroll ever and that's not even counting some of the incentives Maeda will almost certainly reach and some incentives we are all hoping that Rich Hill meets. Maybe the FO already feels tapped out and maybe they don't. But if the $10M allows them to make one last move that might put us over the top, then the comp B pick is a small price to pay.
  12. Quite simply.... Everyone moves up a spot! Nick, who’s the new #20?
  13. It never ceases to amaze me when people speak with such certainty about a situation that they either are only guessing at (Maeda’s ERA) or that they can’t possibly know about (Graterol could’ve gotten so much more than Maeda). Oh really? You really think that the Twins FO just got a call last night from Boston about Graterol and they accepted the deal on the spot? You don’t think they have been getting an idea of Graterol’s trade value for the last 18 months? Do people like this a) just think they are so much smarter than everyone else, or b.) have a crippling distrust of anyone in a position of authority. I feel like it’s always one of these two things that make them talk the way they do.
  14. This feels like a move the Rays would have made, which makes me feel even better about it.
  15. Updated payroll number? 142 + 2 former Dodgers pitchers incentives
  16. Well, heck, if Chris on the TD forum is confident there were better options for Graterol, then it surely must be true
  17. Maybe this has been mentioned already. Maybe is hasn’t... I’m a little surprised the Twins weren’t also in on Joc Peterson, with the cost being Eddie (to the Sox) and a prospect (to the Dodgers)
  18. He was way better in 2019. Albeit because the Twins HR/FB rate jumped from 15.5% in 2018 to 26.5% in 2019 You're welcome, Bremer.
  19. They ranked each team on 5 categories. Here are the categories and how they ranked the Twins on each: Contact: 19 | Patience: 8 | Power: 10 | Speed: 23 | Balance: 10 Power 10th?!?!?! OMG. You can't make this up.
  20. They have the Twins with the 12th best lineup TWELFTH! AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA (paywall) https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/28595190/way-too-early-2020-mlb-starting-lineup-rankings
  21. Makes me think there must have been several teams who wanted Harper, which allowed the Twins to ask for a little bit more than a "normal" DFA trade.
  22. Based on the Winter Meltdown, I'd much rather have Plouffe in the booth than Hrbek
  23. I like the variety. But if you're going to have that much variety you need a stabilizing force and that's Bremer. Morneau very much feels like he's been learning on the job and we've all been watching his growth/struggles. I think the criticisms of him are fair, but how many games has he actually done before this year? 30? I think giving him twice as many games this year as he's done to this point is leadership saying, ok, here it is Justin, let's see what you've learned. Most of the rest of them, even the ones I dislike, are just fine in small doses. I feel like if Jim Kaat did 140 games a year he'd seem like Bert to us. Conversely, if Bert just did 10 games a year, we'd like his shtick a lot more. I'm good if let's say Bert does 20 games, that leaves about half the games left and I'd be fine with a relatively even split between Torii, LaTroy, and Smalley, with a dash of Kaat and Morris when we are in "their cities" Edited to add: Maybe a few series with Perkins also
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