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bunsen82

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Everything posted by bunsen82

  1. bunsen82
    The market is always inefficient. My bread and butter is finding hated industries and companies and waiting for fundamentals and sentiment to improve. MBA in finance, thats impressive. I got my finance degree and accounting degree. Did a couple analysis reports way back in the day, Watson Pharmaceuticals and JNJ. More than anything, I try to create a fundamental valuation, and the risk/reward is worth it, I take a chance. I almost always get in about 20% early. My average return per a year dropped to around 60% over the last 5 years. Had some really good opportunities pop up over that time period.
  2. bunsen82
    UNH with a bit of a bounce above $250 today. Still a long way to go.
  3. bunsen82
    You do realize the Athletics thought Rooker was just roster fodder too right? Martin had 1 really nice day. Adams had 1 really nice outing, other than 1 pitch. No offense that is better than the alternative. Yes I am trying to find positives in this. You also may have someone finally start figuring it out at the MLB level. As to the pitchers, its not so much that its depth. Some of it is better quality than others, it either case its a lot to manage on 40 man even if I have stated there is a lot of wood to chop there. Maybe it becomes trade bait. Maybe you move some to relief pitchers, and what that post was all about is, most likely at least 1 more spot opens up for a starting pitcher. I very well could be wrong. However, I would say most still anticipate Ryan being traded in the offseason.
  4. bunsen82
    Nothing other than over exaggeration after getting a save for our single win so far since the trade deadline. We don't have a lot to cheer on in that bullpen right now.
  5. bunsen82
    Because if they want find if there is any useable parts in the scrap heap for next year and they want to lose. If they can find 1 usable piece maybe 2 that otherwise wouldn't have had an opportunity it is useful. You have Adams and Martin that have flashed a bit.
  6. bunsen82
    If we keep Ober, Lopez and Ryan - it means there is 2 spots open. With 40 man choices coming up You have to have SWR, Abel, Matthews, Festa and Priellip Raya that have to be on it and Adams and Ohl may force the twins to make a tough decision. Yes its great to have pitching depth but you can only have so much you are holding in AAA. You either need spots open at the MLB level or you need to move them to the bullpen. Yes the decisions on Lewis, Morris, and Culpepper can be made a year later, but we are definitely getting a glut of MLB ready level pitchers, and ultimately you need to create opportunities for them.
  7. bunsen82
    NM
  8. bunsen82
    As much as we can be upset with the firesale, its the unknown that is probably creating continued angst as this article addresses. Of our hitters, starting pitching and relievers, relievers is the easiest and cheapest thing to rebuild (even though it will be costly). MLB trade Values - Joe Ryan 68.3 , Lopez 16.6, Ober, 17.1. Lopez and Ober are the value of Varland. Ryan is the only one that makes sense to trade for value purposes to assist in rebuilding. Lopez and Ober at this point you are better off continuing to ride them and see if they can rebuild their value and or ride them out to the end of their contracts and see if you can get a compensation pick for them. Currently we have SWR, Matthews, Festa, Abel, and Bradley for 2 spots. You add in Priellip, Culpepper, Morris, and Lewis. That is almost too much depth. I still stand by Ryan is most likely traded in the offseason. The Twins thought they could get more value for him then than at the deadline. I have no idea what the return will be. Ultimately we need to continue to move forward and create the next team that will give us a chance in the playoffs. Ultimately the best way to do that is getting elite picks in the draft like Houston, and hitting on them. This current team will lead to a very high draft pick in what should be a good draft. Its just another piece to the puzzle.
  9. bunsen82
    The loyalty is impressive. I think the Twins were willing to work with players as they rebuilt the team. Jax was not being shopped after we traded Duran. It wasn't until he requested the trade. The Jays thinking we were in full fire sale mode went after Varland and offered a very good package even though Roden isn't showing much so far. That Varland trade was a true miscalculation on managements part. You can't completely go with young players you do need quality veterans to lead any rebuild. Buxton and Lopez look like the guys to me to lead the rebuild. I honestly think Ryan is pretty level headed. I think he would be fine in a rebuild, I just don't see how the Twins don't trade him since he is the most valuable piece we have unless they truly want to compete next year. In order to do that they will have to spend on some free agents and trade some prospects to achieve even a decent bullpen.
  10. bunsen82
    Mike, as a CPA and an investor as long as some fraud hasn't occurred there will be better days, its just going through it right now. My basis is 310. My hope is your basis is much lower which it should be if you worked there 10 years ago. Valuations wise health insurance and specifically UNH is beyond hated. The trend will change. It really appears the market wants to state it is giving it a PE of 15. $16 earnings expected. They threw the kitchen sink at that quarter and still ended with $4 of earning. They have lowballed the estimates to ensure they can beat them. My guess is $3.50 to $4 for the remainder 2 quarters, $19-$20 for year end earnings. The biggest thing as you know is insurance companies will just raise the premiums. The advantage plans are already getting a 5% increase approved by the government. My guess is revenues continue to increase from the increased prices, even if they lose some market share. Margins will increase and $26-$30 seems like a very achievable earnings. My valuation has it at $420 to $450. I was hoping for an easy 33% return. That hasn't occurred. I am also unwilling to throw in the towel. I expect as the new prices for plans come out this fall and we get the next quarters report the stock should be significantly higher.
  11. bunsen82
    Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I understand the sentiment but the roster has been pretty set since 2023, it was clear they weren’t going to win. Trading the impending free agents was expected. Trading Correa was prudent. The other relievers was messy. Stewart for peanuts and trading Varland are the 2 trades causing the most angst. I am ok with a rebuild and starting over. Depleting the relievers will be difficult and timely process. This appears to be a 2 year rebuild at best. As to Buxton, say what you will the Twins have stood by him through his multitude of injuries. There have been years where Buxton had shut it down, this year the Twins have shut it down. The Twins haven’t failed Buxton nor has Buxton failed the Twins. Both have put forward a good effort but both have imperfections. This is a painful process but we will be better off for it. We will have a new wave coming up and new hope. Hopefully new ownership as well. If the goal is to get Buxton a ring, this was probably the best move.
  12. bunsen82
    1-3, Pittsburg picked up a game today. Atlanta, A’s Orioles and Pirates are all within 4.5 games. The White Sox are 10 games back. They seem to be playing better but I’m still not sure they can catch us in the win totals in 50 games. I do think Washington and Colorado will be in the bottom 3 records. If the Twins were to have a bottom 3 records they would have a 26% chance at the first pick and 70% chance at one of the first 3 picks.
  13. bunsen82
    Adam’s took full advantage of the opportunity. He was pounding the strike zone and seemed to be on cruise control until the home run. Other than Martins 3 for 5 night, maybe the best performance so far by the minor players auditioning for the big leagues. Whose chances at the show are done- Julien Gasper not ready for the show - Davis and Kiersey Not trending well- Roden All of a sudden nothing to play for and Larnach, Wallner and Jeffer start hitting.
  14. bunsen82
    Well he started because illness and has done well in AAA. Honestly he pitched really well today. That home run pitch wasn’t even a mistake, the hitter just went down and got it. Got flustered a bit but got out of the inning. That was an extremely solid start. He did his job today.
  15. bunsen82
    Yep that was new information. It appears the initial plan may have been to keep Jax and Varland. Things escalated as the day went on.
  16. bunsen82
    Personally I feel Jax has been frustrated for a while. Between the game and then requesting to be traded, it was clear his emotions had boiled over and it wouldn’t have been good to keep him in a clubhouse that was clearly rebuilding. At the very least it make this trade much more reasonable. I still do not understand the Varland trade.
  17. bunsen82
    I would not be surprised at all if we end with a top 3 pick if we have new ownership,
  18. bunsen82
    Yes knoblach was gone over 20 years ago.
  19. bunsen82
    He just is not mentally in the game. He makes more bone headed mistakes.
  20. bunsen82
    Rockies and Nationals aren’t eligible for the lottery this year. Nor the Angels or Cardinals. There may be more than 30% odds eliminated this year. The odds for the top picks is 20.62% last I checked. White Sox odds are 25% currently.
  21. bunsen82
    I would definitely rather the Twins win. This was a competitive game until Davis came in. Even still our draft position can and will improve our draft chances and likely draft pick. Clemens with a hit. Let’s see the bottom of the lineup get some runs back. I have watched more games since the deadline. Yuck double play and Lewis just came up limping.
  22. bunsen82
    I would say we got our answer on Pressley. We claimed Hatch off waivers. I expect to see a lot of this in the next 2 months.
  23. bunsen82
    Could we see movement on a Pressly reunion. Its been mentioned they have reached out. Sign with us, Houston or retire appear to be his options. https://sports.yahoo.com/article/former-astros-reliever-ryan-pressly-163612727.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMEf04yAU3yOQso7hjZpbqoh7lzrz_P-yo6H_gePof0Ij_qXgfEt_e6AJ0XGPtTlUsky3ais_RVhGFhnHt-IMiH9RfgXr4nyrXuljBI8uIFWpnhWLu_kYsbijaAT0fnqp_w3WIBQUrnnQ5H1yJZfCHzhudSYRnwkI0cg3qxy_D3-
  24. bunsen82
    I could argue this offensive team never figured out to hit as a team. This team is going to have to rely on small ball to try to win in the next 2 months. Skills like bunting, moving runners, and having productive outs is going to be key to getting any win. We start thinking about how I can help my team win like Clemens did yesterday, rather than trying to swing as hard as I can at an outside pitch like Lewis is doing every at bat, we can start to make progress and actually start to become legitimate hitters rather than free swingers. If I have an issue with the batting philosophy it pretty much sums up to this. We take too many strikeouts when all we needed to do was put the ball in play to move the runners or have a good pop fly to score a run. We had 12 strikeouts yesterday to cleveland pitchers. That is just way too many empty outs. Make them make a play, you put a ball in play you make get a triple like Wallner did. Can prospects be burdens, sure. Can they also take off because they have superior talent, absolutely.
  25. bunsen82
    Rooker took 4 teams before things clicked. We have as low of stress environment right now for these players to try to figure it out. We are expected to lose and they are going to be allowed to make mistakes like Martin being out of position. This is a really good opportunity for Lee, Lewis, Roden, Martin, Clemens and possibly Outman to improve and show they are viable for next year. For all those complaining we have never improved a player, what the heck happened to Castro? Magic fairy dust?
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