bunsen82

The Varland situation is 2 fold. @Trov, believes there is more going on behind the scene. I do think that is possible. However more than that, I think trading him was based on 2 specific reasons. They believe the trade was giving more than what they valued Varland for or see him as. I would have loved to see Varland continue to be giving the opportunity to become a backend bullpen arm. Even still, other than being a rubber arm for Toronto especially in the playoffs which has some value, he had a 4.94 ERA for Toronto and a 0 WAR. There is a very real possibility they don't view him as a back end arm, but more of a middle relief. So if you are able to then trade him for a player who has better stuff and could either be a starter or a backend reliever, that is a valuable trade. They also received a player who potentially could be a starting outfield. So the value was very good. I continue to stand by the bigger issue Varland and Stewart were traded, was to lose more games. They ended up with better lottery odds, and most likely a better draft pick - now revealed to be the #3 draft pick in what should be a very good draft. I think you can build a bullpen, I think it takes time and can be painful, or you need to spend some money and/or prospects to trade for players. I think many viewed Varland as more of Minnesota values and a smalltown kid that made it, so his public goodwill was more valuable than potentially the future value he brought to the team.

This is the MLB ranking system. They rate them on 2 processes, an individuals rank, and then their skills for a scouting grade. Connor Griffin and McGonigle are rated 65. After that you have a group of 60's, and then 55's. Yes there may be some variation slight in the difference between someone rated 20th and 100th, but in actuality the variability on those types of player is smaller. Their scouting grade has a better performance regression than stating they are a 50th rated prospect and a 2nd tier prospect. To be fair what is the difference between Culpepper - Franklin Arias, George Lombard and Jett Williams ranked 24th, 25th and 30th). Other than them being younger, I currently like Culpeppers profile and stats and performance last year better than all 3 of those players (I like Williams bat better - but he will not be a shortstop in the future). Thats a personal opinion, but there is not a significant variability from these prospects and Culpepper. So lets not minimize players just because you don't like Falvey. As to Winokur and Young - its the type of profile. The chances of them hitting are slim. Even still lets say the hit tool develops for Winokur or Young. With their athletic profile, strength and speed, they are suddenly top 20 prospects. Those type of individuals don't grow on trees. https://www.si.com/mlb/twins/onsi/minnesota-twins-news/twins-farm-system-ranked-second-best-all-of-baseball ESPN - said the Twins had the top 2 farm system last August. This is what I was referring to. We also have 3 young players who just came off prospect lists, in Abel, Keaschall and Matthews. Lee and Bradley are still considered young with upside but that isn't for this discussion. For myself I really like the 5 following hitters - Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper, Gonzalez, and Mendez. As to pitchers - We have high end players - Priellipp, Hill, Soto I am really interested in how Quick, Ellwanger, Barr, and Reitz and do this year.

No and No I had actually thought this was about Priellip. As to Quick there is no reason to fast track him. Move him as he is performing.

Walker Jenkins is currently ranked with a Scouting grade of 60. From prospect 21 through 100 they are all rated with a scouting grade of 55. Affectively they are all in the same bucket. For the Twins we have 3 in the bucket with seems pretty and is statically higher than we would have anticipate. We have 1 in the elite bucket. We then have 6 prospects with a grade of 50. Now, I do think they are criminally underrating Soto. Soto still has #1 pitching prospect ability and is rated as a 45. He had a 1.8 ERA at A+ last year in the limited games before being shut down for injury. He has a fastball rated as a 60, slider as a 55, Changeup 55 and control of 50. That is just stupidity. Every team in baseball does not have 10 Quentin Young or Brandon Winokurs. What Fedko and Rosario is excellent depth for MLB teams. They may never become MLB players or starters, but they could. There weren't high expectations for a player like Luis Arraez either or Brian Dozier. Its the overall depth. There is legit prospects 40 players deep.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46070464/2025-mlb-prospect-rankings-update-farm-systems-30-teams-mets-dodgers-mariners Here they are 5th

First off the article is weird as it seems to be more how the Twins have done with prospects or trades than the actual system. As to the current farm system it is viewed as anywhere from a #2 to #5 ranked farm system. We have more high end talent than we have ever had, but I guess if you want to knock it and say we only have 1 top 15 prospect, I guess maybe but there is very few teams or situations where they have multiple top 10 prospects. Jenkins and Culpepper both looked like very good prospects at premium positions. Now if you are saying the talent falls off, I extremely disagree. The depth of the organization is currently what is impressive. Rodriguez has an interesting profile but most likely is an above average major leaguer with upside. Tait is young for C - I am ok where he is ranked. But for hitters we have near term help in Gonzalez and Mendez whose bats are currently likely MLB level for contact. Power is still a work in progress. You have Winokur and Young who are potential unicorns. You have lots of arms with high end potential and throughout the minor leagues (a true pipeline). We have prospects all the way to around 30 or lower that likely have an above average shot at making the big leagues. For reference sake Fedko isn't ranked in our top 30 prospects and Rosario is 29. Every year there is variation in performance and the lists, but this is by far the strongest farm system has been since Falvey took over.

Fitzgerald is not staying on the roster. Even still I don't see this as a big loss. We claimed a 1st baseman who can actually be a starting 1st baseman. Fitzgerald at best is a back up. We still need someone to back up SS and I don't see Kriedler or Arcia being the answer.

Nobody knows what he was asking. So I may have been a little glib earlier, all the information so far is stating team A has checked on him. Essentially he has a higher ask than any team has been willing to go to. Red Sox are also involved, who have had a worse offseason than the Twins. The Bregman interaction doesn't sound good. Bregman said he had higher offers, they said we don't believe you do. He then informed he was going to sign, they increased deal to $165 million but had deferrals and were not willing to go to the contract language that Chicago was willing to do. So effectively by bringing in Bregman they pissed off Devers because they essentially left him without a position, they were forced to trade him and now Bregman spurred them. Ouch. We need 2 arms. Dominguez appears to be the best arm left on the market. Can the Twins get a deal done. They can say we will allow you to show you can be a closer or high leverage reliever. Give him a 1 year deal to get a better long term deal next year or do a 2 year deal. We are now down to around 12 useful arms, and Dominguez having the highest upside of the relievers remaining.

He has the most upside. Even still, where we are at is that they "briefly inquired." Sounds like they told him they were interested in going on a date and he said no LOL.

Honestly, if we are spending 14.5 million, I don't see us spending more than $6 million on 2 relievers unless we sign Dominguez or Robertson. This also doesn't consider the implications of trading Larnach. I would be fine with Castro as the backup utility.

The 17-18 class no. There wasn't a 2020 class. The issue with international classes is it can take 5-6 years to get something. Now this isn't strictly a Twins issue. Rodriguez is a top 5 prospect and from 2019. So we cant say he has had no success. He is just a level away from the MLB level and will likely get his chance this year. As a whole though we haven't kept up with the averages. So its something that needs to be fixed. Now they did make an adjustment we will see if it results in better outcomes.

They have we just haven't gotten much out of them recently. Brusdar Graterol 2014. Most recently Jose Olivares in 2021 for 100k, and Bohorquez for 10k in 2023 as an 18 year old. Regarding Bohorquez who we signed as an 18 year old, I think him being more physically ready has allowed him progress through the system better. Its why I am intrigued with Angel Ozuna. Scandal or not.

I personally don't want anything to do with Gasper. If he is in AAA fine. He showed absolutely nothing last year to show he deserves a shot at the MLB level.

The Phillies wouldn't include Painter for 2 1/2 years of Duran but they would include him for 1 year of Jeffers. LOL Lets be realistic. Even so I think this is incredibly flimsy reporting across the board. You would need a decent catcher. Would we really run a Jackson/Pereda tandem? If they are considering trading Jeffers, I would have rather kept Susec with Jackson and Pereda as depth. Not a strong situation but one I could more readily get behind.

Generally in baseball, the elite talents are worth the extra money. In the international world and dealing with 15 and 16 year olds there has been much more variability. With extra money though we should be able to take at least 1 stab at a top 20 player for the 1.5 to 2 million range. Then spread the rest out. Just my personal opinion.

Emmanuel Rodriguez signed in 2019. It can take a long time to get international prospects to the MLB level. So your concerns stem from 2010 to 2018 time frame after the Polanco Kepler and Sano class. In 2013 you had Arraez. not much else.

To be fair, starting in 2016 is when things got pretty wonky in the international draft. Remember 2016 is the year that the Braves started paying additional money under the table (an extra $11 million). Even still the Twins had a very rough stretch on the international draft side there. Add in some of the teams have built expansive complexes, which has allowed them to have better scouting, better resources to train the prospects. Currently 4. Rodriguez 23 Adrian Bohorquez 24. Jose Olivarez 26. Ricardo Olivar 30 Danny De Andrade Its not terrible, but it is weak compared to other organizations. Now they had had an extremely strong performance in the early 2010's.

He had a solid hit tool. I like him better than Shai Robinson. Glad he is taking care of his health. Most of these are lottery picks after the 5th round, even still, 1 less draft pick from 2025 draft that can hit from the later rounds.

I am more concerned if he is the headliner as what is stated in the article. If he is the best, that means we are spreading the money going for a quantity over quality approach.

So we have used approximately $2 million of our allotment of $7.35 million. We have #34 Enmanuel Marlo - $1.5 million approximate Angel Ozuna - $500k It says he is the headliner of the Twins signing. Usually we get at least 1 top 20 prospect. Would be odd with a top 8 international pool amount we end up with the #34 prospect as our headliner. Even still these are all lottery tickets at this point. You don't know which one will hit.

And effectively shows you just really don't think much of him or the front office strategy. That seems to be where this ends at which I am fine with. As I have stated I am more curious how well this strategy works and whether it completely falls apart. I do think there is a plausible chance it works out - but I am not holding my breathe. It was more than I was seeing an actual trend or strategy that up to this point I don't believe has been fully brought up - other than single stippets in article. That it appears all 3 players have similarities (Wagaman, Jackson and Josh Bell) seems statistically interesting on my front. All 3 performed better at the end of the season whether SSS, managers putting them in better situations ect. All 3 also have struggled with high ground balls rates yet they all tend hit the ball relatively hard or were seeing increase in swing velocity. Alas we will see during the season.

To be fair you cherry picked most of my prior statement. I do agree relying on several players to have significantly better seasons is generally not a recipe for success. For short term advantage if they have figured out something that works it can be an advantage for a year or two. No different than moneyball, or Kansas City putting a lot of resources into relievers during their run. Sooner or later other teams will pick up on this and you will no longer be able to get these type of players on the cheap. There will be an additional premium. As to statistical fluke - how is swinging the bat harder or hitting the ball at a higher velocity a statistical fluke? Seems to be a fundamental change. How is inducing more fly balls that result in more home runs a statistical fluke due to swing path changes (ie Jimenez)? My comment on the marlins, actually comes from Marlins fans on a couple of the reddit sites. Here is my analogy, They didn't have someone significantly better last year that they could have swapped out so they continued to run with him all season long (ie Vasquez). Both teams had effectively removed the players from the long term plans but they continued to run them out for the remainder of the year. He was let go for subpar defense - which the Twins seem to have a strategy on - and supbar hitting but most of that was attributed to the 1st half. Now its not to say that I see Wagaman suddenly becoming an All Star. I could I see Wagaman locking down the 1st base position and becoming a 1-2 WAR player. A success story similar to a Castro. The Marlins let him go because they are going to use Morel for 1st base and they picked up Esteury Ruiz who they view as having a higher ceiling. They actually seem to be doing a better job at roster construction also adding Pete Fairbanks, which was a good addition even if slightly expensive as he could only go to warm climate teams. Look I am not stating this is going to work out. To me its the only rational thing I see with the marginal players they have acquired so far. If they are going to have success, this is the likely strategy they are employing. I think you are better off getting higher quality players, in this case its just not going to happen so if the Twins are going to have success this year it will have to occur from a different method.

So lets call it what it is, how much money do we have to work with. We had $20 million and Bell is $5.75 million for this year. The option is next years money. At this point I think Larnach is traded. There just isn't enough at bats unless someone gets injured. If we trade that removes $4.7 million off the books, so we are back to $19 million. 2 relievers - 1 a closer and 1 a set up man still appears to be the goal. I hope beyond hope we stay away from Robertson. It just feels like he will be the one we pick up with offering him to be our closer. Robertson, Dominguez, LeClerc, Johnson, Loaisiga, Suter, Swearld, Coulombe, Chafin, Stanik, Junis, Rogers King Kinley Barlow, Neris, Desclafani. Thats whats left. I think we have to sign 2. 1 of Coulumbe or Rogers. Who will be your closer and who will be your set up man and how much will we pay. I know we have tons of young arms, but we need to stabilize the bullpen. You need 2 more veteran arms. I still think through trade or otherwise we get another utility player.

His numbers improved - even with no home runs in Sept he put the ball in play a lot and got on base. So what are we left with - what are the Twins trying to do with players like Gonzalez, Mendez, Jimenez in the minors and now Jackson, Bell, Clemens and Wagaman at the MLB level. They are focusing on players who have hit the ball hard including an increase in swing velocity, have decent hit tool - but hit too many grounders. They are looking for players that are having increasing bat speed, and they are not afraid to buy into small sample sizes if a change in the fundamentals is causing the change in production. Now the Twins had some positive results with Clemens at the MLB level last year Clemens increased his homeruns to 19, Gonzalez increased to 15, Mendez just increased a bit of everything with his OPS jumping to .900, and Jimenez drastically increased his power production (OPS of .983). So I do think the Twins think they do have something to help unlock Bell, Wagaman and Jackson. The question is will it work. If 1 becomes an above average player it will be worth it. If 2 do it, it will be a resounding success. Remember how many chances it took for Rooker to figure it out. Wagaman 1st and 2nd half were much different in my opinion. However he was a player that was effectively cut for his 1st half production. Wagaman has the potential to be a 1st base option which we haven't really had. If he produces he will be a nice option for the short term.

Unless they were claiming someone else wanted him willing to trade, or one of the other 3 teams above might make a claim. They wanted him and didn't want to risk not getting him. So he slightly upgrades the bottom of the roster. To be fair if the goal is to move to more contact oriented players he does seem like a move in the right direction. August .258/.338/.530 split - Sept .328/.344/.410 The sept split seems a bit Luis Arraez like. I think there is something there, especially more than a Bragg would ever provide you.