bunsen82

There went Martinez. A 2.9ERA as a reliever for $13 million to Tampa Bay. Edit: Paddack just went for $4 million to Marlins. There are 3 remaining arms I like and 1 of them Latroy Hawkins once called the worst teammate he ever had. So much for rebuilding a bullpen.

Go find me some certifiable relievers with a 4.5 ERA on the waiver wire now. There weren't any at the end of the year last year when we needed bullpen arms. 5 to 6+ ERA yes. Give me a 4.3 to 4.4 ERA reliever for $1.6 million. you still didn't fill our bullpen yet Bean - ignoring the issue we have 3 spots available and not much left to acquire.

Brooks Lee is a stopgap. Its what we should have done in the 1st year we signed Correa. You run with it until he can become the utility player which he best suited to be. Personally I felt he got too thick last year, whether in the pursuit of power or thinking more muscles is better - I felt it limited his flexibility and range some. I hope to see a more trimmed up Lee coming into this season. The arm strength likely isn't improving. As to the bat - I have actually become pretty optimistic that his bat will be plus. He had some extreme funky stats this year. His 1st at bat on a starting pitcher - second worst batter - 2nd at bat top 15%. He was better against elite and better pitchers and teams above .500 than the worst pitchers. Effectively those with lower velocity he struggled with. This is an area I feel he can drastically improve. I think we will be pleasantly surprised with his bat this year compared to last year. Kaelen Culpepper is the medium and long term option at Shortstop. His defensive chops were drastically better than anticipated. Between the bat and the defense, thats why I jumped drastically into the top 100 prospects.

Noah Miller could have been picked up for a rule 5 pick and could be traded for a flyer if we truly ran into a dilemma.

I think he can have solid bat. The defense doesn't look great. The issue is we have 3 prospects coming up. So maybe as a bench power bat he has some value.

The Dodgers held onto him all season. The Dodgers have Vesia, Dreyer and Scott as left handed relievers. Plus another left handed prospect that may be in the bullpen this year. Lets not forget the Dodgers also signed Edwin Diaz to a 3 year $60 million contract. Comparing the Dodgers decision making and finances to build a bullpen are slightly different than the Twins. We just signed Rogers to a $2 million contract and he is expected to have around a 4.2 ERA. You can think he isn't good enough for what the Twins need. They used Banda last year more as a leverage guy. So I am not surprised some of the stats were a little worse. even still he is working with an arsenal he is trying to maximize effectiveness to maintain in the big leagues. He is not a strikeout pitcher so I do agree we have to anticipate with our defense the stats will go up some. The Twins have historically been able to get a little more velocity and refinement on the slider, so I could see his stuff getting slightly better. Twins bullpen - Sands, Rogers Topa, Funderburk, Orze @bean5302- Thats all we have currently. Adams and Raya are the 2 arms they have stated have fully transitioned to the bullpen. They stated someone else could but they would prefer keeping them lengthened out for now. So I don't see a situation where Festa is coming in to be our closer. So as of right now we have 5 spots filled, 2 pitchers with options that should be in AAA refining their stuff and 3 holes. Go look whats remaining for free agents. Its not much. Banda is a real live bullpen arm, that maybe the Twins can get some more out of. In either case he is better than what we threw at the end of the year last year. Its a no brainer to add him to the team.

WAR - and additional players - it doesn't violate my math. Even so on a WAR basis (as of today) its close to a breakeven. If this is the hill you are dying on you got problems.

Dang for an arm that feels like a must get, I think I am going to be impatient waiting to hear if the Twins can pull this off.

Other than Martinez and maybe Kahnle, he is the best reliever arm at $1.6 million. Someone is going to get a good reliever for cheap.

I really think we are going be pretty dominant across all 4 levels. Really strong arms in Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. The bats should be strong throughout but especially Wichita and St. Paul, and the Pitching in St. Paul should be pretty strong as well due to several decent prospects playing down. Just dependent on when the prospects hitters and pitchers start getting called up.

I don't know how they get that high unless with trades. If bullpen is what you are looking at what is available? Kopech?? Nick Martinez? I assume Martinez was outside our Market so hadn't even considered him as I thought he would sign as a Starter somewhere, specifically the Yankees. Who could use someone to start out as a starter early in the season then switch the bullpen as Rodon and Cole come back. If Martinez is in play he would be a very nice fireman type pitcher. Would he sign for $8-$10 million. Is he better than Dominguez?? I don't see Paddack wanting to come back unless we are clearly his best offer to convert to bullpen full time. He had flashes in the bullpen, but I don't trust him. I just am not seeing how they plan put it together. I still think Banda is a no brainer.

For me we have around 5 players that could be ranked in that 75-150 range. 1. Gonzalez should be ranked in the top 100. That season he just put up was crazy good. Last year Keaschall was a top 100 prospect and our 2024 minor league hitter of the year with a .303/.382/.445 slash line in A+ and AA. In A+, AA and AAA Gabby was .329/.395/.513. 2. Soto - I don't think he was included because he was on 1 list - in my opinion he has a higher ceiling than Hill. He did have an injury, that sideline, but the stuff looked great. I actually anticipate him to be quite the workhorse. I've said it before. If you are in Fort Myers you are in for a treat - Soto Hill and Quick wowsers. About as good as the 1 week in Wichita where we had Gonzalez, Jenkins, Culpepper and Mendez in the lineup together. They put up back to back 16 runs, then they moved Gonzalez up and later Jenkins. There was no place to hide in that lineup for a pitcher. 3. Dasan Hill - He had a really solid 1st season. I like the overall arsenal. He kept healthy and kept refining his pitches. 4. Mendez - I'm calling it now - he will be the Minor league hitter of the year. .300+/.375+/.430+. He is going to get more line drives, more balls in the air and utilize his elite bat skills and 90+% exit velocity. 5-8 Quick, Reitz, Ellwanger, Barr - I feel fairly safe saying one of these pitchers will likely be a top 100 prospect on 1 or more lists by the end of the Year. Quick has the best overall profile, Ellwanger's ceiling is incredibly high. Reitz is a unicorn. 6'11". If he fills out at all - the guys a toothpick - watch out. Then you have Barr at 6'6". Mid 90's fastball with excellent spin on all 3 pitches. I take any of these players over Houston who I see as a slightly better hitting Noah Miller.

This seems like a slam dunk addition. By all standards and what they stated they wanted, 2 bullpen arms was the minimum in addition to Rogers. Now I would take Banda in stead of Rogers if that was the question. He has a bit more stuff remaining, both fastballs are not getting the movement or miss and swings needed. In either case, he was a 7th, 8th pitcher for the Dodgers last year and was coming in leverage situations with runners on. Now they stated he did let a lot of inherited runs score, even if his ERA was lower. In either case its a real live bullpen arm. That would likely slot in somewhere between #2 and #5 arms in the current bullpen. Now we will see who gets him, and whether, waiver wire, cash considerations, or a prospect flyer. $20 million was the allotted budget that was stated. Caratini - $7 million Bell - $5.5 million Rogers - $2 million Remaining - By my count still have around $5.5 million and with a contract like Banda it is only $800k over minimum salary. I see no problems with running 3 lefties either. So this would leave approximately $4 million. By my count the Twins have picked up around $200 - $250k in cash considerations in trades and waiver wires. As Doc says, other than a flyer in Kopech, Kahnle who is a likely no go, or a starter conversion - there is nothing else left that I would have any confidence in. I am honestly surprised a trade didn't materialize for him before, unless the Dodgers are trying to sneak these players through waivers. So far none of the players have - and they had to drop Banda to bring Rortvedt back.

Other than Arraez one blow out year with the Marlins the Twins players have had higher WAR players acquired on a yearly basis. As to the Pablo deal, no its not a net loss, on a WAR basis maybe, but you signed to an extension, had you not you would have gotten an additional player as a comp pick like we will now. Arraez netted nothing. So in my math I utilize WAR - I ignored additional years of control, but then add in prospects traded for or acquired via compensation picks. You are arguing a losing position. Just stop.

?????? I really don't understand your point at all. How else do you measure than effectively WAR. As to the Berrios trade, he has been solid, but I think dollar to donuts for the contract being paid 27 out of 30 GM's take SWR over Berrios straight up. Martin - may have the same value as a Castro did for us, and maybe he finds a new level - effectively what he was expected to do. 1-2 WAR from Martin a Year and 2+ War from SWR each year is a significant trade win for the Twins. If you are basing this on a handful of losses by Pagan and an extra roster spot currently, for 2 pretty effective MLB players in SWR and Martin - this really isn't a viable argument anymore. We have found the best player in multiple trades that have moved the needle in (Ryan, Lopez, Odorizzi, Gray) (We have some significant prospects that will be effecting the roster as well). As I stated initially - there are many things that one can dislike how Falvey ran a team - some were of his own doing, some were by restrictions by owners. Trading by any metric was not 1 area that I think you can really critique him on. We still haven't seen a significant addition to the bullpen for no half measures Tom. If he wants to win you have to invest.

Pitching is rather simple. Yes certain pitches can cause deception, but more than anything its movement on the pitch, whether that movement is predictable and then the speed. If you can get a pitch that effectively has 3 variables, speed drop and sideways movement, it is more difficult to hit. The slider is becoming more of a neutral pitch, dependent on the quality of the pitch. If it can be paired with other pitches it is still extremely effective. I still go by how does a pitcher perform. My son for example throws about 44-46 tops with quite a few pitches in the 38 to 40 mph and a weird change that is about 32. He is no where near the speed of most pitchers at AA for 12 U travelball. But every single one of his pitches has a drop of about 12 inches that occurs right in front of the plate. It ends up with a lot of balls pounded into the ground. Average pitcher is likely in the 55-60 range - with some likely up to 65 and maybe 1 or 2 70mph pitchers. As it stands he won't pitch a lot but when he does he is fairly effective. Lots of weak contact with the 2nd or 3rd lowest ERA and he probably plays some of the best defense at pitching so is able to get a lot of cheap easy outs. But there are a few teams who have crowded towards the front of the box, and his deceptive drop that occurs right in front of the plate no longer is effective. So other than a slow pitch, if they can begin to time it up it can become a bit of BP practice. Hitters can learn to adjust, to something different, in small samples it can be effective, but the more mainstream it becomes the effectiveness goes down.

He had started practicing prior to the end of the season. After the season they stated their intent was to move him to 1st base. They sent him to fall ball to work on 1st base and get some games in, he played in the outfield 5 times before leaving for family reasons. He has had all offseason to work at it and will have this season to work on it. I'm not saying there is nothing to the transition, look at players bumble their defense all the time, Julien in particular. However he is 22 years old, and it may take a year or two to get a pretty good feeling at 1st base. Look how much we have moved around Lewis, Lee, Martin.

Odorizzi 5.1 WAR Duran 7.4 WAR (traded with 2.4 yrs of control) Ryan 8.3 WAR (2 yrs of control) Lopez 6 WAR (extension was for 25-27) Gray 8 WAR Topa .6 Pagan 1 WAR Maeda 3.1 SWR 4 (4 years remaining) Jorge Lopez -.1 Prospects - Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait, Abel, Martin (not really prospect but remaining years) Total - 43.6 WAR Gil 5.1 WAR Berrios 1.5 (signed extension for future years) Rogers -.6 Arraez 6.8 Steer 5.1 Graterol 3.5 Polanco 1.3 (1 year) Cruz .4 Pressley 3.0 (signed extension) Ynoa 1.1 Cano 2.5 WAR (remaining years) Total - 29.7 WAR Traded prospects - Miller (could have been picked up rule 5), Petty, Povich In summary the Twins are plus 13.9 surplus value on the trades that have been completed. The tree that continues is 2 yrs of Ryan remaining and 4 years of SWR and Martin and then the prospects of Gonzalez, Bowen, Debarge, Tait and Abel. There is 4 high upside prospects. Petty and Povich and remaining years on Steer and CES are really the only players of note remaining in other systems. Nothing is coloring my bias, trades were a significant boon for the Twins from the Falvey era and will continue to be an asset moving forward.

1st off Mendez has the size. 6ft 3 but 175lb soaking wet - 22 years old. He was an average defender in the outfield. The contact rates are absolutely off the charts. The hit tool is excellent. I have much more confidence in him hitting than Tait. The value for Bader was crazy good. he had a 54% groundball rate though coming to the Twins. He was hitting 54% groundballs. He has to get more balls in the air which will result in a higher average, higher OBP and OPS. .324/.461/.439. He made improvement. There was a couple games in Wichita when you had Jenkins, Gonzalez, Culpepper and Mendez - they put up 16 runs in back to back games. You had 4 hitters hitting over .300. If you can continue that as you move up you will do really well. He has 90% exit velocity, his contact % was 86.1% which is considered elite, and he increased his line drive % increased by 6.4% to 23.8% and did this all while decreasing his K % to 12.8%. If he is going to be a 1st baseman, we have to see 15-20 home runs. You just need that power, and if he can pair that with a .300+ BA and a .350+ OBP, you have something that will obviously work. Now he has to get comfortable on the defensive side. However, from my viewpoint this is a slamdunk as I didn't see where he would get the opportunity in the future. We have Buxton, Jenkins, Rodriguez and Gonzalez ahead of him. I am really really excited about him as a prospect. I think Gonzalez has the best bat, followed by Mendez, Jenkins, Culpepper and Rodriguez thrown in there somewhere. The Twins future will be highly dependent on the success of those 5 prospects along with Keaschall and Lee. https://www.theskippersview.com/p/hendry-mendez-has-the-potential-to?utm_source=publication-search FYI though, his move to 1st has been talked about for months. Put me down as the guy who has been touting Mendez since he came over LOL.

The Twins went the Bell option and have already semi doubled down on Wagaman. I would highly doubt they would sign Lowe when they need to utilize their remaining funds into 1-2 decent relievers. The only high leverage potential reliever left is Kopech. Suter appears to be off the board as well.

I merely was showing the facts. There can always be valid arguments 1 ways or another. 1 of them should not be the trades that Falvey did. Now part of that is because he generally until this past deadline, had very high expectations for trades, effectively he wanted to win each trade. If you disagree or forgot that Falvey traded for Lopez, Ryan, Duran, Gabriel Gonzalez and Sonny Gray I guess thats one thing. Say what you will, He needed Lewis to become an all-star or a star, he took a big swing on him and so far has missed. His 22-25 drafts look extremely strong. They have gotten effectively zero from the international market for several years. For me there are 2 issues, 1 is international drafts. 2 is needed a bit more from the drafts 2017-2019, Some of the issue is we continued to supplement the teams early on through trades from a relatively week minor league system. Overall though most of those trades have worked out. I still think we should have continued the rebuild, sold of Ryan. See if Lopez can show health and #1 pitcher form this spring, then trade him as well. I am fine holding onto Jeffers to manage the bullpen.

At this point Rock Cholowsky as a #1 or #2 pick seems like a lock. Beyond that 1. Emerson 2. Lebron 3. Lombard 4. Flukey 5. Rojas

1. Sonny Gray 8 WAR and Debarge - Traded away Petty 2. Lopez 8.1 WAR - Traded Arraez 6.8 WAR - Lopez is a much more valuable asset currently 3. Joe Ryan 8.3 War - Traded Cruz .4 WAR 4. Duran 7.4 WAR, Tait and Abel - Escobar (Enough said) 5. Topa and Gonzalez for Polanco 1.3 WAR . (This trade is definitely trending towards the twins) The only real negative trade I can think of is the Pressly trade. But most of that value came in additional signed contracts. The other 2 would be Cano for Lopez, and then Mahle for Steer and CES. I honestly think of all the things Falvey did, trading was by far his strong suit.

No one at that price level is going to move the needle. Guess who set the amount he could spend? Tom and the family. I can admit Falvey has had some missteps. As a manager and a steward of the Twins hes done a decent job. For Assets you have Ryan, Lopez and Buxton. You have Lewis and Keaschall on the big league club that have soe pretty decent upside. Lee I think will surprise, but the real value is in the prospects he has accumulated.

You just took a flyer on someone who if you can get right can be a nice 8th inning guy. You do realize how many people we have let go of from the bullpen that have suddenly figured it out. Ronny Henriquez, you mean we let him go and he did that, Emilio Pagan, Tyler Kinley ect. I like it as a flyer, we still need 1 to 2 more stable arms.