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bunsen82

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Everything posted by bunsen82

  1. I don't have confidence in Tait because he is a young catching prospect. His name to fame is potential power which so far has been ok but nothing great, but its all based on projection. So with an ok hit tool currently, although extremely advanced, there is a ton of variability in his outcomes, thus I have zero confidence. Even if you don't want to believe what the GM says, believe his actions - he hasn't traded him. Period end of story. The #3 pick has nothing specifically to do with painter. Its additional compensation in effectively tanking the season so it has to be taken into consideration why we traded the all of our active relievers last year other than Sands and Topa.
  2. The GM said he was off limits. Several organizations have said their best prospects are off limits. You have to take the GM at face value. Until he trades him in another trade, you have to acknowledge they are/were not trading him. I am not going to disagree with you on didn't have to return him. I think Abel can be a #2, and I have 0 confidence in Tait. I think that trade will turn out pretty well overall, and we do have the #3 draft pick in the draft this year.
  3. We weren't getting Painter. As to Abel, if he has feel for the 4 seamer and starts to develop the sweeper. There is definitely something to unlock there. It does appear confidence appears to be something he needs to work on.
  4. And we replaced him internally with someone who either A will likely have the same philosophy, B. has 1 year of experience at this level of job. Sounds like a recipe for disaster. If you had it as an F should have gone to F-
  5. The issue is the majority of the work is done. Now, the Pablo injury did create a wrench, and there is a possibility that contract was insured so may have opened up other money to be used. Even still on the free agent market, Lucas Giolito, Zach Littell and Kopech are the only 3 names in my opinion still a free agent that could move the needle. Trades could happen, but they aren't major players generally this late in the preseason. There is in't much that is moving the needle. D+ in my book, C- if picked up Kopech.
  6. I would have added him as a bat. The decision comes down to me Clemens vs Lowe as both left handed. Clemens gives you a little roster flexibility, but its closer than you think. I can't call it malfeasance as 29 other teams didn't sign him to an mlb deal either. Outman and Larnach would be gone if I were running the team and then get a true back up shortstop that is a plus defender and can play utility as well. So why didn't Lowe get a deal. 1. Came into last season out of shape. 2. Was a bad teammate in Washington (confrontations with teammates and coaches and effectively quit on the team). For a rebuilding team this is likely a big reason. He yelled at Drew Millas 2 days before they dfa'd him. Then a yelling at coaches. Similar to Jax at the end with the Twins. 3. The defensive metrics declined immensely. he was -5 last year on defensive runs saved so he is not the defensive stalwart he was in 2023 where a lot of his value came from 4. His bat speed dropped from 83% to 63%. Not surprisingly he struggled with fastballs that he had made his hay with the years prior. So his defensive metrics went negative, he has never been a power hitter, and his bat speed is declining which significantly impacted his performance on fastballs and was a somewhat of a bad teammate last year. Thats not a good combination. I would be curious what kind of shape he is coming into this season. The biggest difference between Lowe and Bell is Bell's bat speed remains in the top 90% and he started to make some progress on getting the ball in the air more. Plus he is right handed which the Twins needed more. Bell has also always been known as a great teammate and has consistently played on rebuilding teams (good and bad thing) so tends to be a bit more even keeled even when a team is struggling. https://www.federalbaseball.com/2025/6/21/24453292/nationals-nathaniel-lowe-used-crush-fastballs-what-happened So thats the negative, as a minor league deal, you are hoping he comes in healthy and in better shape, tell him to just hit the ball don't go for homers, and hope the bat speed comes back, but thats a lot of hope.
  7. Let's be realistic about what this is. 1. It truly is disappointing to lose a season of Pablo - I still stand by this season is not dependent on Pablo. Yes he would have been a key cog for starting pitching, but this is the one year we have excess starting pitching, with pretty high ceilings. Ryan is now are de facto #1, Now will Ober or Bradley take the mantle of #2 pitcher. They stated yesterday, Bradley's stuff looked very very good. The only thing we are missing out on potentially is some trade value had we traded Pablo. 2. Buxton came out and said he was was upset the Twins did not squash the trade rumors more, even though if I recall the 1 quote was supposedly from Buxton saying he was open to be traded. I think we are going to stand by Buxton is with us long term. 3. We are still building for the future whether Tom is willing to admit it or not. The tradeable players are Ryan and potentially Jeffers. Jeffers was told though that he was going to be the primary catcher this year. The mixed signals is the difficult part.
  8. To be fair last year we had at minimum 2 relievers that fit that category - Coulombe and Stewart. Those type of pitchers can be useable especially when put in low pressure situations. We now have 8 relievers, 2 that had some leverage last year, Sands at the end of the year and Banda with the Dodgers. Rogers, Chafin and Hendriks. Rogers due to injuries ect appears to be to the end of his line. Chafin - seems like he has been pretty steady even though the peripherals are declining. Hendriks on the other hand may still have an elite year left in the tank. The velocity is coming back a bit. Having 3 of these arms vs 2 last year doesn't seem to be a major difference. The issue is clearly no Duran, and no one with as high of a ceiling as Jax or Varland.
  9. It's $5.5 million for this season. The buyout is 2027.
  10. He averaged a shade over 5 innings last year. Along with a 2.0 WAR and a 7-4 W/L record. Too bad we didn't have more SWR last season maybe we would have had a winning record.
  11. No he is another GM under a Tom's thumb. If Tom isn't going to pony up any significant money for even a an 8th inning reliever what are we talking about.
  12. Me and you disagree on almost everything. What I will say is it does appear we have 8 MLB level arms so this is the year we should be able to handle it. Festa, Mathews, Abel, Bradley and SWR for 2 spots. A slight tweak is likely nothing but its also how last years injuries happened for Pablo as well. The teres major strain became a much bigger deal than it seemed initially.
  13. The issue is what is the Twins anticipated value difference. In their calculation they may deep Bell as an additional .5 WAR which is worth 5 million dollars. Technically he is also just signed as 5.5 million. Andujar at 5-10 HR isn't going to cut it for a 1st baseman. Of those the only one who piques my interest is Lowe in my opinion. No one else offered him a big league contract. Then you look and see he is a left handed hitter. I am fine with the deal as said. Even still I would have rather had 1 higher leverage reliever.
  14. I think we will be pleasantly surprised with Bell. The issue as I see, the lineup does really well, and the bullpen is serviceable, unless Liam Hendriks is fully healthy and performs like the closer he was and another reliever becomes elite, we won't have the bullpen to compete unless we trade for significant assets In my opinion Bell signed at the amount we wanted to pay, and Bell knew it would get tough to find a landing location once Arraez signed as a 1st baseman. With the deals signed since it does appear that assessment was accurate. I do think that money would have been better suited to get a higher leverage reliever and then spend $2-$3 million on a replacement level 1st baseman. I think they see the potential in Bell in being a $2-$3 million WAR player.
  15. I think they are running with poor roster construction, because they think those are the best assets to trade. They are hoping beyond hoping Larnach has a good start and someone trades for him is my guess. There are 3 issues - 1. Excess corner outfielders. 2. 3 MLB level catchers 3. Bullpen is filled with competent but limited relievers. I really don't think we would have been on any reliever if they weren't willing to open the purse strings. There were only a handful that signed at that $6 million to $8 million range, and other than Maton, Phillips or even going a little lower Armstrong they are ok but nothing not a good 8th inning or closer level reliever. Domnguez, was your lowest leverage reliever with higher upside and he went for $10 million a year. Jansen pick Detroit - Fairbanks decided to stay in the warm climate and then we would have been priced out at getting close to $15 million a year. Maybe there are trades, and I could see a corner outfielder or backup catcher being traded, beyond that I don't see anyone else being added to the bullpen, even if Kopech would be a lottery ticket on trying to get a high upside closer.
  16. There used to be a statement saying the rest of this article is premium content, if you would wish to read the rest become a caretaker today for those who were not caretakers with a link to become a caretaker. Currently for non caretakers the article just ends and seems unfinished which has caused some confusion. Not sure if that option is still not available or just hasn't been added to the Bonnes articles. I still think would be better suited to have premium forum with premium articles for the group, but I do understand the issues and also that in order to have a viable business ect. you have to have money coming in, and ads come with their own issues. The one Caretaker article also had the caretaker blocked by the headline, and grayed in header.
  17. 1st off does he have a spot in the bullpen? Thats not a strawman argument - its a simple question and you know the answer. He hasn't been promised a spot yet hence why it is a minor league contract now if he makes the team it is a higher contract that what we are paying Rogers. You do realize he's played for Detroit, Texas , Milwaukee and Arizona in 2023 and 2024. All pretty successful and forward thinking organizations.
  18. We get it, you don't think any reliever that doesn't have elite stuff or metrics is worth it. The end game is the amount of runs. If a player is able to achieve that I could care less how they baked the cake. This contract only becomes active if he makes the team, hence it has no downside.
  19. At this point it appears they are going with the quantity approach. See who is performing well and healthy this year. Most of these guys have some experience. Those with lots of experience, Hendriks, Chafin, Rogers - Those still younger and improving Of the arms - to me it appears they are hoping Hendriks is healthy and the velocity is back to 95 mph by the end of the Spring Training and at this point has the closer experience. Right now it appears to me we will be running with 4 lefties- inevitably 1 will get injured or underperform. Chafin, Rogers, Banda Funderburk, Topa, Sands, Orze, Hendriks. You have the younger pitchers to develop at AAA along with what is an assortment of AAA invites. With a bunch of old relievers and some untested relievers, there will be ample opportunities in my opinion.
  20. If not a caretaker its not there stringer.
  21. Its a caretakers exclusive (only marked with gold lettering in the picture when you open the article - no other forewarning as it is covered by the gray backdrop for the Headline - should have had a better thumbnail) - meaning if not paying you only get teased with the 2 and you have no idea there is actually more article to be read. Its something I've disliked immensely and have voiced my frustrations with in the past. If you have exclusive content have it all be exclusive. Not give partial information and this one is not clear at all at the bottom of the article that you need to be a caretaker to read the rest.
  22. Edwin Diaz - $23 million Phillips - $6.5 million to pitch 6 weeks in 2026 Treinen - $11 million Scott - $18 million Graterol $2.8 million Dreyer $820k Klein 820k Vesia $3.5 million $66.4 million for their entire bullpen - them letting go of Banda isn't because looking for a sucker, its because they got an embarrassment of riches due to a $400 million budget. Lets not start on stupid tangets when the Dodgers are playing on a completely different playing field than everyone else.
  23. Tom appears to want to improve the product and have a good team, but doesn't seem to be walking the talk that he has proceeded with. He stated they were going to be willing to spend to get 2 more relievers. In reality - we did neither. we traded for a low cost reliever and have signed an abundance of bullpen AAA roster invitees. I have been as critical as many on the bullpen. I have also said you get to a point, where the best strategy for the bullpen is to find enough suitable arms then load up roster invitees because its clear this team will have opportunities. As of now I am expecting a slightly below average bullpen - but it won't be the dearth of a bullpen we ran with at the end of last year. It appears we will have multiple competent arms, but as of now if we are ahead by a run, no one that I feel confident in that can close it out. I liked Falvey more than most here. I am left with 2 major question marks. Is Tom that unrealistic that his vision just is unachievable to any solid baseball GM (Falvey) - or did he come in to clean house and Falvey was unwilling to be his fall boy. This issue is if thats the case, then if the Twins fall on their face, its all on Toms shoulders. The next is we have 2 individuals in charge of the team that have minimal experience. I expected to make a trade for Banda - and the $500k likely wasn't going to make a difference for the Twins - but that is still quite a bit to give away. I still think we win this trade, but the 1 thing with Falvey was, I always felt we would win Trades, I have no confidence currently. I am more concerned that it appears we have cut our scouting department and possibly cut some in the analytics department. I liked last years draft for now. To me it looks very promising - but if we are cutting costs and it is not going to result in continue to build up the prospects the organization needs - getting the 3rd pick this year may not matter. The only advantage is - we may have an elite talent fall in our laps and it may not matter for a singular year. However for the long term it is still not a good situation.
  24. Bringing an unopened can into the dugout to prove a point . . . ballsy deserved to be punished a game. Similar to Jax blowup and tantrum with Baldelli. The difference with the Phillies is they were a good team. Front office and managers don't tend to put up with it. I would be fine with signing him to a minor league deal. We have so many dh type players though.
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