DannySD

For years, Twins fans have unwrapped the same dull gifts: a tight payroll, bargain-bin free agents, and a roster that never quite felt ready to win it all. But this year? There’s a buzz in the air. What’s that under the Twins’ Christmas tree this year? Could it be new ownership, a higher payroll, and maybe even a shiny new ace pitcher? Let’s unwrap the possibilities.
With news of Justin Ishbia’s interest in buying the Twins, it’s hard not to get excited. For lifelong fans, this feels like more than the usual offseason buzz—it’s the real, tangible possibility of an organizational shift toward sustained success. Even if Ishbia doesn’t end up purchasing the team, the thought of an owner willing to invest in a winning culture gives hope to fans yearning for a brighter future.
 
A Twins Wishlist: What Could New Ownership Bring?
New ownership has the potential to deliver the gifts Twins fans have always wanted. Imagine a team that isn’t just competitive but built to dominate. Here’s what fans might hope to find under the tree:
Another Ace Pitcher
Like the shiny new bike every kid dreams about, an ace pitcher would transform the Twins’ rotation. Pairing Pablo López with another top-tier starter would make Minnesota a legitimate postseason threat. A Well-Stocked Bullpen
Reliable relievers are like the toolshed every house needs—sturdy, dependable, and ready to fix any mess. A dominant bullpen turns close games into wins and elevates playoff potential. Additions to compliment Jax and Duran, uh, yes please!! An Offensive and Defensive Catcher
Catchers are the Swiss Army knives of baseball: versatile, indispensable, and critical to success. A young, dynamic catcher would stabilize the Twins’ lineup and pitching staff for years to come. Jeffers is a free agent after 2026 and this should be kept in mind. A Power-Hitting First Baseman
This is the show-stealing gift under the tree: a slugger who can hit 30+ home runs and strike fear into opposing pitchers. With Alex Kirilloff retired, the Twins need a consistent bat at first base to round out the lineup.  
Why Now is the Perfect Time
The Twins aren’t starting from scratch. Many positions—2B, SS, 3B, LF, CF, and RF—are already locked in with young, promising talent. Players like Royce Lewis, Carlos Correa, Edouard Julien, Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner form a solid foundation.
With a strong farm system and a deep prospect pool, the Twins also have flexibility to trade for higher-ceiling players. Add financial freedom from new ownership, and the team could retain its stars, attract big-name free agents, and build a roster capable of contending deep into October.
 
What History Tells Us About New Ownership
If history is any guide, new ownership can transform a franchise. Take a look:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (Guggenheim Baseball Management, 2012)
When Guggenheim Baseball Management purchased the Dodgers in 2012, they immediately raised payroll and acquired stars like Adrian Gonzalez and Zack Greinke. Within three years, the Dodgers became perennial contenders, winning seven straight division titles starting in 2013.
2. San Diego Padres (Peter Seidler, 2012-2016)
Under Peter Seidler’s leadership, the Padres shifted from small-market mediocrity to big-market ambition. Signing Manny Machado, trading for Juan Soto, and revitalizing their minor league system set the stage for playoff runs in 2020 and 2022.
3. New York Mets (Steve Cohen, 2020)
The Mets’ sale to Steve Cohen brought immediate change. Cohen raised payroll dramatically, signing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, and revamped the team’s analytics and player development. Playoff contention followed within three years.
4. Chicago Cubs (Ricketts Family, 2009)
The Ricketts family focused on rebuilding through youth, hiring Theo Epstein to lead a long-term plan. By 2016, the Cubs had ended their World Series drought with a championship team built on smart spending and elite player development.
 
The Timeline for Twins Fans
What could Twins fans expect under new ownership? Based on historical precedent, here’s a realistic timeline:
Year 1: Laying the Groundwork
Ownership transitions take time, and the first year would likely focus on infrastructure. This could include investing in analytics, scouting, and player development while enhancing fan engagement. Year 2: Financial Flexibility and Big Moves
With the sale complete, new ownership could make splashy acquisitions in free agency and trades, signaling a clear commitment to winning. Year 3: A Perennial Contender
By year three, the Twins could become playoff regulars with a well-rounded roster, improved facilities, and a fan base re-energized by success.  
A Christmas to Remember
Twins fans, it’s time to dream big. After years of small-market limitations, the possibility of new ownership feels like unwrapping the gift you’ve always wanted. Imagine Target Field packed with fans cheering for a team built not just to compete but to win it all.
This Christmas, let’s hope for a brighter future. Whether it’s a shiny new ace, a power bat, or a lockdown bullpen, the possibilities are endless. After all, isn’t that what the holidays are all about?
What’s on your Twins Christmas wishlist? Which positions should the team prioritize if new ownership brings financial freedom? Share your thoughts in the comments below—let’s start dreaming together.

Zebby Matthews made his 2024 debut in front of 663 fans at Rise 2 Greatness Field. Though the name of the Cedar Rapids Kernels home stadium comes from a local foundation, it seems Matthews took it as an order.  On August 13th, he completed his meteoric rise, making his MLB debut in front of 25,000 fans at Target Field. The young right-hander looked ready for the moment as well, pitching 5 solid innings, striking out 5 and only allowing 2 ER against a Royals lineup full of tough outs.
Matthews answered a call that night that the Twins will be making many times throughout the last month and a half of the season. With Joe Ryan recently joining rotation mate Chris Paddack on the IL, the Twins will see an influx of youth in their rotation behind veterans Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Make no mistake, Matthews and fellow youngsters David Festa and Louie Varland are no lambs being sent to the slaughter. The Twins have high hopes for their respective futures, but the future has come sooner than most expected.
Twins fans will surely be wondering how viable this fresh-faced rotation can be as the team looks to finish the season strong and lock in another playoff appearance. Fears may be running especially high with the failure to bolster the rotation at the deadline still visible in the rearview mirror. Historical precedent paints a mixed picture of the success one can expect from a young starting rotation, adding to the uncertainty.
Twins fans of a certain age will of course remember the rotation full of 20-somethings that the club rode to its second World Series championship in 1991 (and knowing many of those fans personally, they will also be sure to let you know that Pablo Lopez is no Jack Morris). In particular, Kevin Tapani and Scott Erickson played massive roles despite having a combined 55 appearances in the majors entering the season. Those who’ve only watched those two play on grainy YouTube videos may instead point to recent Mariners teams or this year’s Pittsburgh Pirates as teams that leaned heavily on young pitchers and were rewarded well. Of course, someone more sadistic than I could likely name a laundry list of teams that placed their hopes in young starting pitchers and were routinely kicked in the teeth for it; I’ll choose optimism this time around.
With history being as muddled as it is, the best way to project the fortunes of the Twins rotation going forward is to take a clear-eyed look at its current state. Again, we’re left with reasons for both optimism and skepticism. The trio of Varland, Festa, and Matthews have all experienced success this season in the high minors, and Festa and Matthews are beginning to find places in the back end of national Top 100 Prospects lists. However, Varland and Festa have experienced significant ups and downs in their limited tastes of the majors, and Matthews is a complete unknown at the top level. Additionally, all three are late round draft picks that represent huge wins for the Twins’ player development, but also might leave nervous Twins fans wondering if an early push to the big leagues will abruptly halt their growth.
Even if all three pitchers beat the odds and find success down the stretch, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and Pitching Coach Pete Maki will soon be dealing with the headaches of managing the health of their young arms. For one, all three pitchers are still trying to build up to a Major League workload, and in the meantime starts of 4 or 5 innings will increasingly become the norm. Unfortunately, whether your starter is 25 years old or 45, your team still needs to pitch all 9 innings. As such the Twins bullpen will be experiencing extra strain at a time when arms are already worn out by a long season.
Should the Twins achieve their goal of making the postseason, a whole new set of challenges will present themselves. Though all three pitchers deserve credit for the poise they’ve shown so far on MLB mounds, a postseason atmosphere is an entirely different mental challenge (think: about 80 times the turnout Zebby Matthews saw at Rise 2 Greatness Field). Additionally, the trio of young pitchers would be gameplanned against to an extent far beyond what they’ve ever seen, and making in-game adjustments is a trait usually attributed to experience.
Whatever your personal level of optimism, it’s undeniable that the Twins' hand being forced in this way only makes a playoff run more difficult. Of course, this is no fault of Varland, Festa, or Matthews. The Twins front office had their chance to bolster their ranks at the trade deadline, and chose to place their bets on what they had. The fact that those bets have shifted to much less proven commodities is unfortunate, but not unpredictable. On the other hand, each of these young men had to come up and pitch at some point, and all three have momentum behind them that could propel them to a strong finish this season. Everyone within the organization has preached belief in this trio, but that’s easy to do when they’re honing their craft away from the spotlights and cameras. These young men have now been propelled into the fire of an MLB pennant chase. How they handle the heat will be a primary factor in determining the Twins’ ultimate fate.
This article was originally posted on my personal blog, Northern Platitudes.

Very soon, you will be able to update your Top 20 Minnesota Twins prospect rankings again (so watch for that!). In thinking about it over the past week or two, I actually ended up ranking my top 203 Twins prospects. Again, I include only players who remain a "prospect." It's the same criteria used the MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and any other credible prospect ranking site. 
This won't be a real deep dive into these prospects. In fact, I will attempt to keep the Top 10 prospect summaries to 3-4 sentences. The goal will be to keep the reports on prospects 11-20 to 2-3 sentences. For prospects 21-30, I'll limit myself to just 1-2 sentences. My hope is that you will use this as the starting ground and ask me a ton of questions. Ask questions on these 30 players, or ask about other players that don't appear on the list. (My hope is that I didn't miss anyone, but that is possible too.) Update - I didn't keep anywhere near my goals of keeping it short!
What do I consider in my rankings? In my opinion, the biggest factor is upside and ceiling. Just how good can this player be? But also, what is the players' floor? How likely is that player to get to the big leagues. Have they been hurt? For pitchers, I consider their velocity, stuff, reports on spin, etc. For position players, I consider athleticism, speed, defense, arm, ability to hit and the potential to turn doubles into home runs down the line. What level is the player at? How old is the player relative to level of competition? Was the player drafted out of high school or college (because that will effect age-to-level)? What types of decisions are being made regarding the player in terms of promotions, timing, place in batting order, how the teams take care of the players, etc.? And then ultimately it comes down to comparing a player versus another player and which I would have higher. 
Let's get started! When you get to the end, let's discuss the rankings, the players, who was snubbed, who's too high or too low? 
#1: Walker Jenkins - 19 - OF
It was just over a year ago that the Twins used the #5 overall pick in the 2023 draft. When he has been on the field, he has hit very well. Hurt in the Mussels first game of the season, he is hitting .265/.402/.398 (.800) with five doubles, a triple, and two homers in 27 games. Most impressive has been his patience. He has 23 walks to just 15 strikeouts. The sky is the limit. Jenkins has all five tools. 
#2: Brooks Lee - 23 - IF 
After impressing throughout spring training, Lee missed the first two months of the season with a back injury. He was brought back slowly with five rehab games in the FCL and five more in Fort Myers. He played 20 games for St. Paul and hit .329/.394/.635 (1.029) with five doubles and seven homers. He got off to a fast start, with eight hits in his first four big-league games. Since then, he has three hits over his past six games. A solid contact hitter, line drives from gap-to-gap, with potential for more power, Lee can also play solid defense across three infield positions. 
#3: Emmanuel Rodriguez - 21 - OF
In the offseason, E-Rod was added to the Twins 40-man roster. In 37 games at Double-A, he has hit .298/.479/.621 (1.100) with 12 doubles, two triples, and eight home runs. He has 42 walks in 166 plate appearances. His on-base skills are incredible for his age. His power is legit. He has great speed and does a very nice job in center field. You may have noticed... Twins prospects get hurt, and Rodriguez has not been able to avoid that. He has missed time two or three times due to a hand/wrist injury that keeps coming back. When he can play, he's as talented as anyone. 
#4: Luke Keaschall - 21 - 2B 
One of the biggest risers among Twins prospects this season, Keaschall represented the Twins in the Futures Game recently. He began the season with 44 games in Cedar Rapids where he hit .335/.457/.644 (1.001). In 42 games at Wichita since, he is hitting .315/.415/.457 (.872). Combined, he has 21 doubles, a triple, and 11 home runs. He has 53 walks already. he is also 20-for-25 in stolen base attempts. After seeing him hit early in the season, I compared his approach, set up and swing to that of Mike Trout. He's big, strong, and he's got a ton of potential. 
#5: Andrew Morris - 22 - RHP  
The next guy on the list is getting all the headlines, but Morris is putting up very similar numbers. Sure, a few more walks, but some impressive overall numbers. He was the Twins fourth-round pick in 2022 from Texas Tech. He began the 2024 season in Cedar Rapids. In seven starts, he went 3-1 with a 2.15 ERA. He moved up to Wichita. He has pitched nine times and has gone 5-2 with a 1.19 ERA. In 83 combined innings, he has 87 strikeouts and just 16 walks. He's got the numbers, but he also has the stuff. He's got a mid-90s fastball. He also has a really good slider and a slower, 12-6 curveball. 
#6: Zebby Matthews - 24 - RHP
Matthews was the Twins eighth round pick in 2022 from Western Carolina. Like Morris, Matthews started in Cedar Rapids. After four starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He moved up to Wichita and has pitched in 10 Double-A games. He has gone 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA. In a combined 78 innings, he had 91 strikeouts and just six walks. Morris fills the strike zone. Matthews just picks the spot within the zone and throws it there. And it's worked because he now has the stuff to get whiffs in the strike zone. His mid-90s fastball also touches 98 mph now. He's also really, really worked to improve his secondary pitches. He has four strong pitches. 
#7: Austin Martin - 25 - UT 
After struggling in his transition to professional baseball and fighting some injuries the last couple of seasons, Martin has shown exactly what type of player he can be in the big leagues. He may not hit a huge number of home runs, but he hits a lot of line drives from foul line to foul line. He can run well, and run the bases well. And, defensively, he is at least adequate at second base, left, and center field. He will soon lose prospect eligibility, but the on-base machine has shown that he can be a productive big leaguer. 
#8: Charlee Soto - 18 - RHP 
A year ago, the Twins made him the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft out of Reborn Christian Academy in Florida. He made his pro debut in 2024. A look at his overall numbers is fair, but not necessarily indicative of what he's done. In 15 starts, he is 0-3 with a 5.73 ERA. In 48 2/3 innings, he has struck out 60 and walked 22 batters. Soto is all about projection. First, he is huge; tall and very strong. He throws hard, touching 98 and 99 at times. He's also working on his secondary pitches, but each of them have shown some potential. Despite the lack of numbers, he's worked and improved and his most recent start was the best of the season.  
#9: Kaelen Culpepper - 21 - SS/3B
The Twins selected "KC" with the 21st overall pick this month in the 2024 MLB draft. The Memphis native was not recruited heavily out of high school, but he went to Kansas State and got the opportunity to play right away. In 2023, he hit .325/.423/.576 (.999) with eight doubles and 10 homers. He had the opportunity to play for Team USA last summer, playing for Larry Lee. This season, he played 61 games and hit .328/.419/.574 (.993) with 15 doubles, six triples, and 11 home runs. Culpepper is a contact, line-drive hitter who puts the ball in play and makes things happen. He played third base his first two years before moving to shortstop this season. I personally think that Culpepper is a great example of a prospect with a high floor but also has the tools to become a high-ceiling performer too. 
#10: Yasser Mercedes - 19 - OF 
A top international signing in 2022, he put up a great stat line in the DSL that summer. Last year, he moved up to the FCL, but a shoulder injury cost him performance before finally being shut down. Now healthy again, Mercedes is back. In 49 games, he has hit .337/.426/.577 (1.003) with 17 doubles, two triples, and six homers. He also has 18 stolen bases already. Mercedes can hit for average and doubles, but he'll get bigger and stronger and could add significant power. He's got really good speed, and he has the ability to play strong defense in center field. 
#11: David Festa - 24 - RHP 
A bit of a drop for Festa since the most recent prospect rankings, but honestly, for me at least, it's a lot more about the players that made big jumps in the season's first half. Sure, he had a couple of rough starts in the big leagues. He went 1-1 with an ERA over 10. I don't care about that at all. He gave up too many homers, but what did I see? I saw a fastball between 95 and 99. I saw a slider that was sharp and got some swing-and-misses. He also had some really good changeups. He's got three potentially big-league pitches. He just needs to get to St. Paul and keep working on the consistency and command of each of his pitches in and outside the zone. The stuff is definitely good enough. 
#12: Gabriel Gonzalez - 20 - OF
Did we place Gonzalez too high before the season started? Maybe. But what did we know? All we saw were his numbers, stats, and other information available online. Now he has been in the organization for a little over half of a season. Unfortunately, He missed nearly two months with a back injury which cost him valuable development time. Should he have been a Top 100 prospect as some in the industry had him? Maybe. He struggled a bit early in the season with his new organization and then got hurt. Overall, he is hitting .267/.303/.437 (.740) with 10 doubles, two triples and three home runs. So yes, he drops for now, but he is very young for the level. He is incredibly strong with a quick bat. He likes to swing. He's got things to work on, as does everyone on this list, but he's got a ton of talent and power potential.
#13: Marco Raya 21 - RHP 
It's just really hard right now to rank Raya. His "stuff" is as good as anyone's in the system, and I don't have a big problem with how he's been used. The other day when he threw 78 pitches in a game and it was the most he's thrown since 2022, it definitely gives pause. He has fought injury early in his career. He is not a big guy. He needs to continue gaining strength. I have no problem if his "future big league" roll is seen more as a 3-4 inning reliever where he just throws his big fastball and sharp breaking pitches and changeup at max effort. That can be an immensely valuable pitcher. But how do we rank that type of pitcher? Not as high as a full-time starter, but ahead of relievers. The stuff is good. The numbers haven't matched this year. 
#14: Rayne Doncon - 20 - IF 
Doncon came to the Twins this offseason with Manuel Margot from the Dodgers in exchange for SS Noah Miller. Doncon was a big international signing in 2021. He hit in the DSL, and then in the ACL. However, in 2023 at Low A, he hit just .215/.283/.368 (.651), and while those numbers aren't great, he hit 21 doubles and 14 homers. He began this season with 38 games and hit .283/.374/.464 (.838). He moved up to Cedar Rapids and in 43 games, he has hit .253/.333/.446 (.779). Combined, he already has 21 doubles and 10 home runs. Doncon is a really great athlete, very strong and quick. He's got a solid approach at the plate and does a decent job defensively around the infield. 
#15: Brandon Winokur - 19 - IF/OF
Winokur was the Twins third-round pick just a year ago out of high school in California. Winokur just might be the most athletic player in the Twins system. He stands 6-6 and is lean. Right now, he's able to play shortstop and third base as well as center field and right field. He's got a ton of power potential on his frame. Right now, he's got really good speed as well. In 56 games this season, he has hit .252/.347/.393 (.740) with 13 doubles and five homers. He has 23 walks, but he's also struck out a lot. He also have 14 stolen bases. 2024 is about getting him games and at-bats and time at each of the defensive positions. He'll have an offseason to work on things, so I believe 2025 will be a bigger year for him. 
#16: Dasan Hill - 18 - LHP 
Hill was the Twins fourth pick in last week's draft, a competitive balance pick following the second round. The lanky lefty had committed to Dallas Baptist. At 6-4 and 175 has plenty of room to add some weight and mature. He's already throwing 95 mph at times. He also has the makings of really good slider in the low-80s and high-70s slower curveball. He also has a changeup. He's all about upside. 
#17: Kala’i Rosario  - 22 - OF
Rosario was the Twins' fifth and final pick from the 2020 draft. The Hawaiian-born slugger was the High-A Midwest League's home run and RBI champ and the league's MVP. He went to the Arizona Fall League and tied for the league lead in home runs. Rosario only recently turned 22, so he is very young for the Double-A level. In 52 games, he hit .241/.342/.417 (.759) with 15 doubles and six homers. Unfortunately, his season came to an end due to injury. 
#18: Cory Lewis - 23 - RHP
Lewis was the Twins ninth-round pick in 2022 out of UC-Santa Barbara. He made his professional debut in 2023. He made nine starts in Fort Myers and 13 starts in Cedar Rapids. He went a combined 9-4 with a 2.49 ERA. In 101 1/3 innings, he had 118 strikeouts and 33 walks. He was named the Twins minor-league pitcher of the year and the Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. Unfortunately, he missed the first two months of this season with injury. He is now back and with the Wichita Wind Surge where he has made five starts. 
#19: Ricardo Olivar - 22 - C 
The Twins signed Olivar in July of 2019 which meant that his professional career really didn't get underway until the 2021 season. He had a breakout season in the FCL in 2022. In 40 games, he hit .349 (1.046) with 12 doubles, three triples and five homers. He validated that season by hitting .285 (.855) with 28 doubles and 10 homers in Fort Myers. He has played in 75 games for Cedar Rapids .He is hitting .294/.403/.489 (.892) with 15 doubles, three triples, and 11 home runs. He's a good athlete for a catcher and can play some left field. He's got a strong arm. He takes very good plate appearances and is willing to walk. He also has the talent to be a solid all-around hitter. 
#20: Danny De Andrade - 20 - SS 
De Andrade was a top international signing for the Twins in January of 2021 from Venezuela. He has generally held his own offensively while playing very strong defense at shortstop. In 2023 in Fort Myers, he hit .244/.354/.396 (.750) with 21 doubles, three triples and 11 home runs. He was also 20-for-24 in stolen base attempts. In 29 games with Cedar Rapids this year, he hit .243/.333/.359 (.693) with six doubles, two homers and five steals. Unfortunately, his season came to an end after a high-ankle injury. 
#21: Kyle DeBarge - 21 - SS 
Barely recruited out of high school, the Louisiana native stayed in-state and played for the Ragin' Cajuns at Louisiana-Lafayette. He played in 60 games that first season and hit .293 (.750), a solid freshman season. In 2023, he hit .371 (.994) with 15 doubles and seven home runs. He spent last summer in the Cape Cod League. This spring, DeBarge was the Sun Belt Conference player of the year after hitting .356/.418/.699 (1.117) with 19 doubles, three triples and 21 homers. At the same time, few question his ability to stay at shortstop defensively. He's just 5-9, but it's fair to call him a "ballplayer." 
#22: Jose Rodriguez - 19 - OF
Rodriguez is a big, strong youngster with a ton of power potential. He's shown it at various times. As a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2022, he hit .290 (.966) with 15 homers, three triples, and 13 home runs. In 2023, he came to the FCL and really had to adjust but by season's end, he had. He hit .262 (.737) with 10 doubles and six homers. This year, he played 33 games with the Mussels and hit just .186 (.569) and struck out about 33.3% of the time. But few in the organization have as much power potential as Rodriguez. Unfortunately, his season came to an early end as well which is costing him valuable development opportunities. 
#23: Jair Camargo - 25 - C 
Camargo signed with the Dodgers out of Colombia in January of 2015. In February of 2020, he was traded with Kenta Maeda to the Twins. It's been a slow progression through the Twins system ever since. Last year in St. Paul, he hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 homers. This year, he's been injured a couple of times and was called up for a little while. The burly backstop is a good athlete, and he's quite strong. He has improved his plate discipline and contact rate the past couple of years. 
#24: Yunior Severino - 24 - IF 
It's been an interesting career for Severino, going back to signing with the Braves, being deemed a free agent, and signing with the Twins to a second seven-digit signing bonus. He could always hit, and he's made himself playable at the corners. In 2023, he played 84 games for Wichita and 36 games at St. Paul. Combined, he hit .272/.352/.546 (.898) with 17 doubles and a minor-league-leading 35 home runs. His 2024 started out very slowly. That makes his .253/.362/.451 (.813) stat line look better. He's got nine doubles and 16 home runs. Tons of swing and miss, but a lot of pop in his bat too. 
#25: Dameury Pena - 18 - 2B 
A right-handed Luis Arraez? Probably not fair, but Pena is a really good hitter as a very young player. Signed in January 2023, he hit .382/.453/.496 (.949) with eight doubles and three triples. This year, as an 18-year-old in the FCL, he has hit .294/.400/.431 (.831) with four doubles, a triple, and three home runs in 33 games. Over the two years, he has 32 walks to go with just 18 strikeouts. Hard contact, uses the whole field, lots of singles and doubles. Pena is a very intriguing prospect. 
#26: Rubel Cespedes - 23 - 3B/1B 
Cespedes has been in the organization for a long time, but I would bet most people really didn't know his name before this season. He signed with the Twins out of the Dominican Republic back in April of 2019. He made his pro debut in the DSL that summer. In 2021, he hit just .158 in the FCL. However, in 2022, he was doing well in Extended Spring and got an opportunity with Fort Myers. He stuck, hitting over 74 games. He remained with the Mussels in 2023. In 115 games, he hit .233/.313/.398 (.711) with 26 doubles and 13 homers. He played some winter ball this offseason which he said really helped him prepare for this year. In 71 games with the Kernels, he is hitting .289/.361/.459 (.820) with 12 doubles and 10 home runs. Cespedes has really cut his K-Rate. He's got a fairly smooth but strong left-handed swing that can generate a lot of power around the field. Defensively, he's solid at both corner infield spots and possesses a tremendously strong arm. 
#27: C.J. Culpepper - 22 - RHP
Culpepper was the Twins 13th round pick in 2022 out of Cal-Baptist. He split 2023 between Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids. In 21 starts, he went 6-5 with a 3.56 ERA. He had 89 strikeouts per inning. This offseason, he found himself featured in national publication's Top 10 Twins prospect rankings? He isn't a flame-thrower, though he sits 92-94. What makes him so intriguing is that he has six pitches, and he's been encouraged to continue working with all of them. This season, he's been limited to just seven starts. He's been fine, posting a 3.26 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning. However, he has been on the IL when forearm/elbow issues. 
#28: Billy Amick - 21 - 3B 
A South Carolina native, Amick stayed in-state out of high school and went to Clemson. His first season, he had just 19 plate appearances over nine games (and had 11 strikeouts). However, as a sophomore, he played in 46 games and hit .413/.464/.773 (1.236) with 17 doubles and 13 home runs. After spending time in The Cape, he took advantage of the transfer portal and went to Tennessee and the SEC. In 65 games, he hit .306/.387/.639 (1.026) with 14 doubles and 23 home runs. He helped lead the Volunteers to the College World Series championship. The Twins used their second-round pick on the slugger, and he could move swiftly once he gets acclimated. 
#29: Spencer Bengard - 22 - RHP
This is the Cal-Baptist section of my prospect rankings. Bengard was the Twins 15th round pick in 2023 from the same school as CJ Culpepper. (No, I couldn't quite fit FCL right-hander and 2023 Undrafted Free Agent signing into this range.) Bengard, to some degree has become this year's Day 3 Find. He began the season working out of the Fort Myers bullpen. He's made six starts and six relief appearances, but even coming out of the bullpen he works 3-5 innings at a time. He is 6-2 with a 1.79 ERA. In 55 1/3 innings, he has 57 strikeouts to just 10 walks. Bengard throws a low-90s fastball (90-91, touch 94), a low-to-mid-80s changeup, a mid-80s slider, and some upper-70s curveballs. 
#30: Eduardo Beltre - 17 - IF 
At the 30th spot, it's always fun to consider the youngest players in the organization. In January, the Twins signed Beltre out of the Dominican Republic with a bonus just shy of $1.5 million. Only Daiber De Los Santos received a larger bonus this year ($1.9M). His DSL season got going a little bit late due to a wrist injury, but once he got in the lineup, he's been unreal. In 22 games, he is hitting .339/.500/.554 (1.054) with two doubles and four homers. He's also got 18 walks to go with just 14 strikeouts, something I sure like to see. He's got huge power potential, but he is also a very good athlete. He likely has the speed to stay in center, but he's been getting a lot of time in right field too. 
The Next 20 (in alphabetical order)
Adrian Bohorquez - RHP 
Darren Bowen - RHP
Matt Canterino - RHP 
Noah Cardenas - C 
Byron Chourio - OF 
Miguel Cordero - RHP 
Khadim Diaw - C
Daiber De Los Santos - SS 
Jaime Ferrer - OF
Tanner Hall - RHP 
Ronny Henriquez - RH RP 
Kyle Jones - RHP 
DaShawn Keirsey - OF
Cesar Lares - LHP 
Jeferson Morales - OF 
Jaylen Nowlin - LHP 
Pierson Ohl - RHP 
Connor Prielipp - LHP 
Tanner Schobel - IF
Patrick Winkel - C
 

Now that spring training is quickly coming upon us. I'd like to ask the question, will the Twins get their promised postseason SP? There hasn't been any inkling that they were focusing on anyone. Jesus Luzardo was my favorite but looks like that's he's out of the question, if ever FO was willing to make the necessary sacrifice. The rentals Glasnow & Burns are gone if FO was ever willing to pay the price (I wouldn't either). Do we have a shot at Cease (CWS)? Interdivisional trade will up the already high ante for us, I doubt it. So we're shot, right?  
I'd like to throw out a last year's suggestion. Everyone needs a 2nd chance, Trevor Bauer. He was cleared of any wrongdoing, He has made peace with Rob Manfred, he has been humbled & has matured. Now IMO isn't a great clubhouse person, but IMO he's not a clubhouse wrecker. & he has shown a willingness to work with young pitchers & he's motivated.
The best part of this is his price tag. He's asking minimal salary with incentives. Something that we can afford. IMO MN is a great place for him to start a comeback. Or would you rather wing it with what we have?

It's that time of year, and the Minnesota Twins will soon be fully engaged with spring training activities down in Sunny Fort Myers, Florida. Before the season kicks off though, and with prospect positioning set to move, I needed to put out my updated top 15 prospects for the 2024 Major League Baseball season.
The highest ranked player on the 2023 list, Royce Lewis, has since graduated and he took a couple of players with him. Both Matt Wallner and Louie Varland are no longer prospect eligible, and Edouard Julien joined them in becoming a regular for Rocco Baldelli's squad. It should be expected that a few of these names will move on by the time the dust settles on 2024, and that would be a good outcome in terms of development.
I have been posting my top 15 prospect lists here since 2016, and you can find each of them below:
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
2021 Top 15 Prospects
2022 Top 15 Propsects
2023 Top 15 Prospects
Now to get into the 2024 list:
15. Yunior Severino INF
Signed when the Atlanta Braves were made to forfeit players from an international signing class that they cheated to acquired, Severino has become the darling of that group. He emerged to the highest level of the farm for Minnesota last year and showed thump that could have him as a valuable first base type. There's a lot of swing and miss, but he's now on the 40-man roster and has a clear path to a debut.
14. Matt Canterino RHP
No one has bounced around more on these prospect lists for me over the years than Canterino. Drafted out of Rice, he underwent Tommy John surgery and has dealt with arm issues as many of their pitchers do. Fully healthy, he could be an absolute weapon for Minnesota in relief this year. His stuff is impressive, and should play up even more as a reliever.
13. C.J. Culpepper RHP
A 13th round pick in 2022, Culpepper reached High-A Cedar Rapids in his first full professional season. The 3.56 ERA across 86 innings was impressive, and he owned a 9.3 K/9. There's still plenty of development to take place here, but a late round arm that works in the vein of Bailey Ober or Louie Varland is something to dream on.
12. Kala'i Rosario OF
Sent to the Arizona Fall League after the season, Rosario got in extra reps and showed out with the power. He flashed some exciting potential during big league spring training action prior to the 2023 season, and his solid year at High-A should have him ready for the Double-A challenge this season at just 21 years old.
11. Luke Keaschall INF
Minnesota took Keaschall in the second round of the 2023 Major League Baseball draft out of Arizona State and he immediately took to pro ball. He posted an .892 OPS in 31 games, and helped the Cedar Rapids Kernels secure a championship at the end of the season. He probably starts in Iowa, but could make his way to Double-A Wichita quickly.
10. Tanner Schobel INF
The Virginia Tech product tore up High-A Cedar Rapids in 2023 and earned a promotion to Double-A. He struggled out of the gate for Wichita, but did bat .294 over his final 14 games. He'll need to tap back into some of the power potential that was left in Cedar Rapids, but there's the makings of a big league regular here.
9. Charlee Soto RHP
The Twins took Soto with the 34th overall pick in the 2023 draft and he didn't pitch at all last season. Looking to build up his body and prepare for pro ball, 2024 should be a fun debut season. There is an upper-90's fastball in the arsenal, and while he's a high school arm, there is a lot to work with here.
8. Brandon Winokur OF
A tools'd out high school kid taken in the third round of the 2023 draft, Winokur impressed in limited action last year. He posted an .884 OPS across 17 games at the rookie ball level, and he showed off the power and speed combination. The plate discipline is something to watch as he develops, but the ceiling for him is immense.
7. Cory Lewis RHP
Drafted just inside of the first ten rounds during 2022, Lewis has emerged as one of Minnesota's best pitching prospects. He throws a knuckle ball but isn't a knuckleballer. With dominant stuff that led to a 10.5 K/9 in his first pro season, Lewis could start at Double-A in 2024 and may be a late season option for the Twins to consider.
6. Austin Martin INF/OF
Similar to Canterino, Martin has bounced around on my prospect lists. He got back to a workable swing last year, and while the power potential isn't there, he has solid bat to ball skills and has a good contact ability. Speed is the play here, and while exit velocities could limit his overall production, he already profiles as a plus defender in center field.
5. David Festa RHP
Taken in the 13th round of the 2021 draft, Festa represented the Twins at the 2023 Futures Game. He made his way to Triple-A St. Paul and is right there among the best pitching prospects in the organization. Festa can push velocity while also showing a strong command of his pitches. He had 119 strikeouts in 92 1/3 innings last season. Expect to see him at Target Field in 2024.
4. Marco Raya RHP
If Festa isn't the best pitching prospect in the organization, then it is Raya. Just 20 years old and a former prep arm, the Twins already have him at Double-A. He took his lumps for Wichita, but was incredibly young for the level and should be expected to use that experience for significant offseason development. He'll begin 2024 with the Wind Surge again, but getting to Triple-A St. Paul at 21 would be eye-opening.
3. Emmanuel Rodriguez OF
One of the most exciting prospects across baseball, Rodriguez has significant power potential and his ceiling is that of a slugging corner outfielder with all-star aspirations. He posted a ridiculous .400 OBP for Cedar Rapids last year despite batting just .240, and he doesn't sacrifice plate discipline for power. A meteoric rise could happen this year at 21, but Rodriguez's future is still one to be excited about even if it takes a bit more time.
2. Brooks Lee INF
Maybe the safest bet to be a big league regular for a long time across all organizations in baseball, Lee is near major league ready at this point. He's going to hit for more average than power, and can play shortstop but doesn't necessarily need to. He does everything well, and if any of the tools take another step forward, he'll end his career with more than a few all-star selections under his belt.
1. Walker Jenkins OF
The fifth overall pick from the 2023 Major League Baseball Draft, Jenkins is a superstar in every sense of the word. He may outgrow centerfield as his body develops, but he should hit for average and power while remaining a strong defender and runner. The maturity here is off the charts, and the abilities could push him into future MVP discussions. A 2024 debut isn't going to happen, but all bets should be off in 2025.
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Go ahead, give me your hokey analytics about "Joey Gallo only hits .200," "There are now 5 lefty corner outfielders on this team," and "Joey Gallo has the highest K rate of all time." Well guess what nerds, I care about the stallion in the Italian, not what his "box score" may look like.
Jokes aside, although not a world-moving acquisition, I think that it makes some sense, though it broke at an unfortunate time--two days after Correa signed with San Francisco and one day after Carlos Rodón signed with New York. Certainly, if the Twins' biggest signing this offseason is Joey Gallo, fans have reason to be upset. I do follow the offseason move-to-move and react to each move, but I am not one to put the label OFFSEASON FAILED on a team until the season begins and the Opening Day roster is finalized.
First, though, let's cover the negatives. Gallo had a horrendous season last year, with a slash line of .160/.280/.357. If he performs like that again in 2023, he will likely be out of the league. He strikes out way too much and has a laughably low batting average, and that can only be expected to continue without an approach change. Players' bat-to-ball skills do not improve with age, and Gallo will enter 2023 as a 29-year-old. Furthermore, Gallo enters a crowded space of left-handed corner outfielders alongside Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Nick Gordon, and Matt Wallner. Of all the player types the Twins could have pursued, they got a guy who plays at their arguably deepest position.
With those strikes against him, why don't I mind the signing? There are a few reasons:
The corner depth is hypothetical
Yes, there is a glut of corner outfield depth on this roster, and they are all lefties (with the exception of Gilberto Celestino, who is a corner guy in name only, given his poor stick). However, let's go through those options. Even before the Gallo signing, Kepler was going to be moved. Even if he didn't already have one foot out the door, it's debatable that Kepler would be better than Gallo. Both have high floors, given their defensive ability, but Kepler, outside of 2019, has not shown the chops to be anything better than a league average hitter. Gallo, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit at an all-star level as recently as 2021.
After Kepler, the top two guys are Kirilloff and Larnach, neither of which have proven much of anything between 2021 and 2022. Both have shown flashes of potential to be high-level hitters, and I still believe in them, but both have also been bogged down by significant injuries. Gordon was on the shortlist to be DFAed during the 2022 season prior to his development as a top hitter in the depleted Twins lineup in 2022, but his performance was bolstered by a high BAPIP and he is more suited as a utility player than an everyday left fielder or the strong side of a platoon. Wallner impressed last season at both AA and AAA and had a solid run after his late season callup, but that's all the major league experience that he has.
Between the four of them, they have 1,584 MLB plate appearances combined, the equivalent of about three seasons as an everyday player. If the Twins started the season without Kepler or another corner outfield acquisition, they would start with Kirilloff in left and Larnach in right, and if either of them got injured, which is likely given their history, Gordon would be pushed into an everyday role, and Wallner would probably be up as a fourth outfielder. I think that they can all ball, but that's a thin group to enter the season with.
I do believe that there is another righty bat coming the Twins way (Jurickson Profar is the guy I want to see now), and I can be convinced that it's not the end of the world for either Larnach or Kirilloff to start the season in AAA, given that neither is a sure thing.
Joey Gallo can reasonably become Joey Gallo again
In terms of buy-low hitters, Gallo probably has the highest ceiling outside of Cody Bellinger and his 17.5MM contract with a 12MM mutant option for 2024. When Gallo is playing at the form he's capable of, he can get on-base 35% of the time despite his astronomical strikeout rate and low batting average because of his astronomical walk rate (13% for his career). He can bop 30+ homers, with two 40 home run seasons to his name. He can play Gold Glove defense in right field.
Obviously, there's a lot of ifs in this conversation, but it's better to take a shot at a guy like Gallo than to fill a spot with a low-ceiling Trey Mancini, AJ Pollack, or Adam Frazier type of player for the same money. If you're going to give out a one-year contract to a veteran, give it to someone who is one year removed from an All Star season and is still under 30.
If the Twins and Gallo are fortunate and he makes good on his prove-it deal, he will likely be up for a big payday prior to the 2024 season. The Twins would love to watch him go. It would mean that he turned in a good year for the team, helping them contend for an AL Central title. However, there is an added bonus that only schmucks like me care about. Because he performed poorly in his final arbitration year (and was traded in-season), he did not receive a qualifying offer and is eligible for one in 2024. If he puts up a Gallo-esque season with a 125 OPS+, 35 homers, and great right field defense, he would likely decline the offer, giving the Twins an extra draft pick for 2024. I for one would like to see that happen.
Positional flexibility
Gallo is a great right fielder, due to his solid range and great arm. He also has experience at all three outfield positions, first base, and third base. I don't see Gallo ever returning to the hot corner.

gallo.mp4  
 
However, we all know that the Twins love themselves some position flexibility. The only alignment that would make sense to put Gallo at first base would be three of Byron Buxton, Gordon, Larnach, and Celestino being in the game alongside Gallo, as they would likely prefer Kirilloff and Wallner at first over him. Still, the option is there.
More importantly is his ability to fill in in centerfield. He has not played there much since 2019, partially due to the personnel of the teams he was on. He didn't look bad in his work in center, though it has been 4 years since he had significant time out there. That being said, he would provide an extra layer of security for centerfield, which is important given Buxton's injury history.
Is he a long-term replacement candidate if Buxton misses extended time with injury? Probably not, but I would bet that he will end up playing more centerfield this year than Max Kepler, another top defensive right fielder with the ability to play center, did last year (9 innings across 3 games). I wrote about the importance of having a third centerfielder and keeping Celestino down in AAA for the sake of the team and the player a couple weeks ago. Gallo fits the bill there.
It's only 11 million for one year
The cat was out of the bag by the time Gallo signed: the Twins do not plan on devoting 25MM+ to any one player this offseason. With 50MM to spend to reach last year's payroll, it's not a terrible use of 11MM. If he hits .160 through May and Wallner is killing it at AAA, I don't think the Twins will sweat the lost pay. He can easily be cut at that level.
All of this is incumbent on him hitting at least .200, but that's a given.

Us under 30-year-olds want one thing from Minnesota sports. A championship. We want the stories handed down by our parents of how crazy the State was in 87 and 91. We want I94 closed. We want to be nationally relevant. Much has been made of the 0-18 playoff record and many hot takes and debates have raged over social media. It seems like anything the Twins do at this point will be met with unnecessary cruel criticism and unwarranted unwavering support. So here is my useless take to add to the mix, and I am afraid it is not going to be popular among the Twins Haters and Twins Supporters. But maybe a small minority will support me.
Twins need to reset and rebuild.
No more chasing the offseason whales of Donaldson and Correa, no more trading prospects for mediocre talent that is oft injured and fails to make any sort of impact. We should start trading aging players no matter how beloved and rebuild our prospect pool. We need to analyze what has gone wrong in the scouting, drafting, and developing of pitching prospects and change our approach there. If the Twins and Pohlads really want to have an impact playoff run, then they need to strip it down for the next 2-3 years and then rebuild it back up.
Many of you will argue otherwise. But I ask a simple question. Do they have a competitive roster right now? The obvious answer is no. So as an organization you have 3 choices:
Add players to it through Free Agency or Trade to make a playoff run. Maintain course and hope you have the most luck any baseball team has ever had. Tear it down and rebuild. Option 1. Adding would be a gigantic mistake. You already missed out on impact free agents. Throwing money and more importantly years at non-impact free agents is never a good idea for any market, much less a mid-market team. Trading prospects to add talent is also not wise. You already have a depleted farm system due to poor drafting and trades for non-impact players. What available trade is there to make that could lift this roster to make an impact trade? The answer of course is no. You would need 4-5 trades to do so, and you do not have the prospects to do that.
Option 2. Staying on the course seems like a non-option. I get it, the division is bad, maybe we can luck our ways into the playoffs and then who knows. But given the vitriol on Twitter and other social media sites this also seems like a non-option. This front office/coaching staff is most likely fired if they have another 70–80-win season and fail to make the playoffs. Even if they do the roster is incomparable to other playoff teams and increasing 0-18 to 0-20 is only going to enrage an already volatile fanbase.
Option 3. Tear it down. This is the only logical course of action. It will be painful. Trade Arraez, Trade Buxton, Trade Kepler, Trade Polanco, Trade Mahle, Trade Gray, even Trade Kiriloff who is oft injured. Trading any player with value but has a huge flaw that limits them from being an impact playoff performer. Get prospects in return, use good fortune in the draft to start rebuilding this thing. Start drafting and developing impact pitching.
 
It may not work in the end; it may turn out to be another period like 2011-2016. But it is the only course this organization can take if they want to win a championship. This front office/coaching staff won’t do it because they want to save their jobs. But if the ownership has a real long-term vision this would be the only clear path of action.
 
 

Who will win the AL Central in 2021? Since the White Sox traded for Lance Lynn, added Adam Eaton to address a need in the OF and then spent big to add Liam Hendriks to their bullpen, the White Sox have been the favorite to win the division. ESPN recently posted their projected All-Stars for 2021. Let's just say it was much kinder to the White Sox:
 
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/30833382/let-predict-2021-mlb-all-star-rosters-al-nl
 
They projected 6 White Sox and didn't include Abreu. The Twins had a few mentions (Garver, Donaldson and Buxton) but mostly because of injury questions. Cruz was the only Twin on the list. While it does appear that the Sox may have more star power, let's analyze how the teams stack up.
 
Let's start with the rotations, where the top 5 for the Twins are likely Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ and Dobnak. The White Sox projected top 5 are Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Dylan Cease and Carlos Rodon/Reynaldo Lopez. The Twins had a team ERA of 3.58 and the White Sox were at 3.81. I would agree that adding Lynn (as much as it pains me) improves the Sox slightly more that Happ does the Twins. Keuchel is due for some significant regression, but Giolito should make up for some of that. Maeda isn't likely to repeat a #2 in the Cy young race season, but some continued improvement by Berrios and a full year of Pineda can make up for some of his regression. While the starters can be slotted in multiple orders, I feel confident in saying the Twins win two of the matchups and the White Sox 2 with the #5 spot being a push. Overall, I think these rotations are very comparable.
 
The Hendriks signing for the White Sox clearly helps their bullpen, but the subtraction of Colome should not be dismissed. The White Sox rely on a younger group of relievers behind Hendriks that do have promise. Whether the Twins will have an improved bullpen this year is up for debate. Adding Colome, Robles and Anderson while removing May, Romo and Clippard would suggest a downgrade. The Twins front office and coaching staff have shown the ability to build a very solid bullpen with what sometimes looks like questionable parts. I do like the upside of Jorge Alcala and hope he can fill a role similar to Trevor May from last season. I like the top three of the Twins (Colome, Rogers and Duffey) over the Sox, but I think I would give the Sox a slight edge at this point. It does still feel like the Twins might have a Clippard-like signing to finish off their offseason.
 
Thus far, I would give the White Sox an ever so slight advantage. Now let's analyze each position. At catcher, the White Sox may have the more complete player in Grandal, but if Garver can find some of his 2019 form I feel like the Twins have a slight edge due to their depth with Jeffers. At first it's Abreu vs Sano. It's hard to argue against last year's AL MVP, but the White Sox edge at 1B may not be as great as it appears. The 34 year old definitely benefited from the short season as he put up an OPS 150 pts higher than either of the previous two seasons. It was encouraging to see Sano play 53/60 games for the Twins this past year and it's not unreasonable to think Sano could match Abreu's output this season, although I still give Abreu the edge. The Simmons signing for the Twins helps them in multiple ways. Moving Jorge Polanco to 2B gives the Twins the edge at 2B over Nick Madrigal, although Arraez may have already had that edge. Polanco provides much more pop than Madrigal. Moving Arraez to Util also give the Twins an edge over fielding-first Danny Mendick. The White Sox have the edge at SS with the back-to-back .300 seasons from Tim Anderson over Andrelton Simmons. To round out the infield, we have the interesting case of Josh Donaldson versus Yoan Moncada. We have a pretty good idea of what Donaldson brings when healthy, but of course that is the kicker. Can he play 140 games? Moncada had a breakout season in 2019 with a .915 OPS, but struggled mightily last season, possibly due to the lingering effects of contracting coronavirus prior to the season. I'd give the edge to Moncada, but this could easily go either way. The scorecard in the infield goes 3-2 for the Sox if you include Util, but this is a close race.
 
The outfield has some intriguing comparisons as well. Eloy Jimenez gets the edge in LF over whoever the Twins put out there. He has an all-star level bat but by all accounts should probably be a DH. Max Kepler struggled a bit in 2020 but should be able to out-produce Adam Eaton. At CF we get to compare two former #1 overall prospects in baseball. Luis Robert was on a tear to start 2020 but struggled the second half. Byron Buxton has two years in a row with a .800+ OPS, but continues to have difficulty staying on the field. Robert probably gets the edge here until Buxton proves he can stay on the field, but Robert does need to show that he can make adjustments to what the league did to him in the second half. Jake Cave is better than anything the White Sox currently have for a fourth outfielder. Let's call the OF a push leaning the Twins' way.
 
What else is left to discuss? Don't worry, I didn't forget the Twins' biggest advantage, which is at DH. The Twins do have a significant advantage with Nelson Cruz over whoever the Sox put at DH, at least until Father Time finally catches up to Cruz. The Twins have a solid backup who will need AB, in Brent Rooker, that they can use to spell Cruz and keep him fresh. The last debate comes with team defense. This is where the Simmons signing really makes a difference. In looking at several metrics on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs, the White Sox had the edge in 2019, although the Twins were closer than you think. As a composite, it appears as though both teams were in the top 10 in MLB with the Sox being a few spots ahead of the Twins. The Twins have definitely closed that gap and possible passed up the Sox.
 
The fact that 6 players given All-Star nods for the White Sox in the ESPN article (Giolito, Hendriks, Grandal, Anderson, Jimenez and Robert), tends to make one feel they are way ahead of the Twins. One could argue that the Twins have a near comparable player to each one of those and greater team depth. I completely understand where the national pundits are coming from, but I think the race will be neck and neck all season. If the Twins get 140 games out of Donaldson, Sano and Buxton I feel like they win the AL Central, possibly quite comfortably. Clearly the issue will be if that is possible. We will all find out in October.

#8 - Matt Wallner OF (1st Round 2019, Southern Miss)
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Another bat-first prospect, Wallner has some serious power behind his bat after hitting 58 HRs at Southern Mississippi (in just 872 PAs!). He did alright at Elizabethton, and his main concern as a hitter will be limiting the strikeouts. Defensively he's a subpar runner and will be limited to corner OF, if not 1B. He also pitched part-time in college, which means he's got the arm to throw out runners.
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#7 - Brent Rooker 1B (1st Round 2017, Miss State)
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Rooker's very similar to Sabato and Wallner, but unlike them, he's ready to play in the majors. He did well in his first week of games in the majors before fracturing his wrist on a pitch, and we saw a glimpse into his upside. He's got the power to hit 25+ HRs a season and his batting average did not suffer much in the minors. Strikeouts will be a concern, as he had a dangerously high 33.8% strikeout rate at AAA. Despite that he still hit .928 OPS with a super strong .399 OBP. Defensively, he really shouldn't be playing in the outfield. He hasn't played a ton of 1B, but hopefully he's given plenty of practice there because that would be an ideal place to end up. Otherwise he'll be a DH his whole career.
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#6 - Jordan Balazovic RHP (5th Round 2016, HS)
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The Twins have gone through a drought of starting pitcher prospects for at least 10 years, and have been desperate to get a guy like Balazovic up and going. He mowed through Fort Myers A+ in 2019 with a strong 2.84 ERA, a phenomenal K/9 rate (11.8) without a bad BB/9 rate (2.6). He uses a strong mix of a 94-95 MPH fastball that acts a sinker, and sprinkles in similar-looking curveballs and sliders. He needs to get more innings under his belt and I don't think he profiles as a #1 or #2 starter, but he has a clean injury history and he'll likely be starting in AA at the young age of 21. Balazovic has a bright future in the big leagues if he continues down the path he's headed.
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#5 - Jhoan Duran RHP (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)
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The top pitching prospect, Duran turned his career around once arriving in the Twins organization, going from a #20-30 prospect in Arizona to top-tier prospect. Duran's fastball has sped up the past couple season, sitting in the upper 90s and he'll hit 100 every once in a while. His secondary pitch is a splitter that can hit 94, and consistently fool hitters with its fastball-speed. His command can be a bit shaky at times, but that's even been a huge problem for him. Duran does have the toolset to be a dynamite reliever, but he's successfully pitched a starter's workload in the minors and should land in the rotation. Perhaps he pitches in the Twins' bullpen down the stretch in 2021 as his first dip into the MLB pool.
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#4 - Royce Lewis SS (1st Round 2017, HS)
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Most prospect rankers won't agree with this, but I'm not as high on Lewis as most are. The first overall draft pick in 2017, Lewis had very strong 2017 and 2018 seasons, but he hit poorly in 2019 at A+ and AA. He was promoted to AA despite hitting .665 OPS, and proceeded to hit .649 OPS there. Critics have pointed out that Lewis' swing does not look good and his approach at the plate needs heavy refinement, and his pitch recognition is currently poor. He's still young, turning 22 this summer, but I don't think he's particularly close to being MLB-ready. There has also been debate about whether he will end up at SS or CF, as he has the raw speed to handle both. This ranking has mostly been negative, but Royce has the potential to become a talented hitter with 60-65 power potential and has the highest ceiling of any prospect on this team. I just get the sense that Lewis will become a hitter whose approach at the plate won't click until Year 4 or 5 of his career.
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#3 - Alex Kiriloff OF (1st Round 2016, HS)
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The Twins are poised to make Kiriloff their starting LF in 2021, and it's not hard to see why. He has a career .317 batting average in the minors, and that's no fluke. Scouts rave about his ability to make consistent contact on tough pitches, he has has some serious power behind his swing, with the potential for 20+ HRs a year. Kiriloff's focus on contact has kept the number of walks low, but that's not a big concern if he hits > .300. He's had a couple of wrist injuries and missed the entire 2017 season. Defensively Kiriloff is one of the lower prospects on this list, and while he has a good glove and a great arm, he may end up at 1B. Hopefully his bat will end up somehwere in the #2-4 spot in the lineup one day.
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#2 - Ryan Jeffers C (2nd Round 2018, UNC Wilmington)
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This is probably the highest you've ever seen Jeffers on a prospect ranking, but I am comfortable putting him this high. Good catching prospects are rare, and Jeffers is the entire package. He was yet another 'questionable draft pick' in the 2nd round, but the Twins organization sculpted him into one of the best defensive backstops in the minor leagues after initial scouting reports claimed he wouldn't be able to stay at catcher. He ranked as a top-notch pitch framer, and showed as much in his 26 game debut in 2020. His bat was always his calling card, and it didn't disappoint in the minors with a very strong (.296/.383/.453 .836 OPS). He'll take a lot of walks and has the potential for more power. Jeffers is ready to graduate off this list and will push for the starting role as the Twins' catcher.
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#1 - Trevor Larnach OF (1st Round 2018, Oregon State)
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I conclude with another bat-first position player, of whom has the best minor league track record to this point. Larnach covered 4 levels of the minor leagues through only two years (2018-19) and held his own at every level, never dipping below a .295 batting average or .840 OPS. In total he's recorded a (.307/.385/.468) triple slash, and that's even with only 18 HRs in that stretch. He's got more power in that bat, no doubt. Larnach will take plenty of walks too, as his K/BB ratio was very healthy too. Defensively he's a bit on the slower side, but I think he will work as a RF with a decent glove and strong arm. Once he figures out the big leagues, Larnach is a hitter whose name should be penned into the #3 spot in the lineup and be let loose to rake to his heart's content.
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I will add one more blog post soon going over my formula of how these rankings were calculated. Until then, let me know what you think!

The day the Padres officially announced their status as contenders by officially landing Blake Snell and Yu Darvish, the Twins countered with their own power move for, *squints at notes*, Hansel Robles. Jokes aside, Twins fans should be encouraged that an initial move has been made to deepen a bullpen losing several key 2020 cornerstones. What should we make of Robles, his stuff, his profile, and his fit?
 
Robles had a dire 2020 that should be largely thrown out as his 317 recorded pitches amounted to less than one third of any of his other five MLB seasons besides his debut year.
 
Robles is a mostly 3 pitch righty, with a hard fastball with some decent ride that sits 95-97mph. Robles fastball was his undoing in 2020, with opposing hitters lighting it up to the tune of a .667 SLG, with a bloated BaBIP that should normalize with a 900ish pitch sample in 2021.
 
Robles' other two pitches are likely what the Twins hope to capitalize on. He throws a changeup around 35% of the time (often to lefties) and a slider around 12% of the time, mostly to righties. While the Twins are becoming known as a slider loving organization, it's Robles’ changeup which has been his most effective pitch, holding opposing hitters to a wRC+ of 11 on the pitch in 2019, by far his best year, and 86 in a very poor 2020. Expect the Twins to tinker with his pitch mix significantly, as they have with other bullpen additions in recent years.
 
While Robles isn’t someone to write to your momma about, he’s not a scrapheap guy either. He’s a solid MLB pitcher with a 5 year track record. He essentially offered a 1st percentile season in 2020 and a 99th percentile season in 2019. In 2021 he should be good for 50ish innings (season length dependent) of work in low to mid leverage spots. While perhaps underwhelming given some of the other moves made around MLB yesterday, Robles pitch mix gives him the versatility to throw to just about anyone, and he offers solid upside in a bullpen severely lacking in depth. Over to you Wes Johnson.

We’re about to close the book on one of the craziest years in my lifetime. At 30 years old, I’ve hardly seen as much as the next person, but to say this calendar was filled with unprecedented events would be putting it lightly. Through it all though, we had baseball, and that was a distraction I know that I needed.
 
I remember many months ago now, waking up from a nap and looking at my phone. There was an alert from ESPN noting that Kobe Bryant had died in a helicopter accident. As I processed that, it didn’t hit me as to what the magnitude I’d feel from that event would be. Kobe was a cultural icon, more than just a basketball player, and despite being a Jordan guy he was an athlete I respected. From there, things got worse.
 
I’ll never forget sitting in Pott’s Sports Café in Fort Myers, Florida on March 13. The night before Rudy Gobert had tested positive for Coronavirus and the NBA effectively closed its doors. Covering the Twins Spring Training, things seemed ominous that morning as teams had already gone to distancing fans from players with roped off areas. By noon, Major League Baseball had put a halt on all operations. I hopped a flight and headed home.
 
Since that day, I have not returned to the office for my day job. We’ve dealt with closings of restaurants, public spaces, wearing masks, and plenty of other new versions of normal. Minneapolis experienced extreme racial unrest as the city turned into a warzone. There’s been political and social unrest, and countless other prominent figures that have now left us. For a brief four-month period though, there was baseball.
 
Leading up to the regular season we watched as the commissioner and ownership groups publicly tore down their players in an effort to squeeze profits through what would be a different year. There was uncertainty as to whether a season would be played at all and writing about the sport took a different turn. There was no minor league action to cover, and in months there typically would have been action, an ability to get creative was necessary.
 
As the dust settled though, we had the resumption of a game. Teams were diligent in their efforts to avoid Covid-19 outbreaks, the play on the field checked in at a high level, and the Los Angeles Dodgers won a World Series. Back in early summer, none of that seemed remotely possible.
 
More than any other year, I needed this out. I lost my grandpa to cancer in August, and the day following his funeral my 59-year-old father died in a car accident. I’ve spent more time in a cemetery over the past three months than I have during the entire duration of my life. I know that my challenges in 2020 are not alone, and that this year has been trying on so many. Financial distress, learning to cope with new working situations, understanding how to handle a certain level of social isolation, the totality of it all is not lost on anyone.
 
At the end of the day though, it was this, a child’s game, that provided a reprieve. We’ll have baseball again, the world will heal, and we can all be better and stronger people for what we have overcome. It will forever be a passion to break down the effectiveness of Jorge Polanco at shortstop, or whether Jose Berrios will round into a bonafide ace. Even if you take away that type of consumption though, the purity of a game, the crack of the bat, and the smell of fresh cut grass will always be an inviting escape.
 
Thank you for venturing on this journey with me, and I look forward to a more consistent level of normalcy in the months ahead. Below you’ll also find some of my favorite pieces from this season.
Women in Baseball Series
Kobe Was So Much More than Basketball
Byron Buxton's Next Great Act
Art Proving Unexpected Outlet to Fill the Baseball Void
What's Happening at the Alternate Site?

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This offseason was always going to be incredibly weird. Coming off a pandemic shortened season, with no fans, and an unprecedented amount of uncertainty still ahead, how teams would tackle preparations for 2021 is a mystery. The Twins are good though, and despite a few holes they want to get better. What if they go all in?
 
This morning at ESPN Jeff Passan penned a piece regarding some rumblings he’s heard around the league. One of them was a note on the Minnesota Twins circling like a shark in the water. Executives had apparently suggested that Minnesota is “lurking” and appears “ready to strike with a big move as they did last season.” That big move alluded to was the signing of Josh Donaldson to a $100 million deal. How could something like that be replicated?
 
On the free agent market there’s only a couple of splashes that would fall into that category in and of themselves. Signing Trevor Bauer, George Springer, or J.T. Realmuto would push dollar signs into that realm. Bauer is arguably the most natural fit of the group, and his next deal could be the most interesting. He’s previously said he’d like to by an assassin for hire and string together lucrative one-year deals. Agent Rachel Luba has commented that they’re open to whatever the best fit is. Bauer makes sense in Minnesota, but I’d imagine there’s other more desirable markets.
 
Looking at the latter two options, the Twins would be in a bit of a weird spot even though both are clear upgrades. Springer plays corner outfield, and despite the departure of Eddie Rosario, the assumption is that top prospect Alex Kirilloff will take over in short order. Mitch Garver had a down and injury plagued year in 2020, but Ryan Jeffers looked the part of a starting quality option. Realmuto would push both to the bench, although he could make the DH spot less of a pressing Nelson Cruz matter.
 
I don’t think anything else on the free agency front would qualify as Donaldson-esque. Maybe signing Didi Gregorious, Marcus Semien, or Andrelton Simmons to be the starting shortstop creates ripples, but none of those guys should break the bank. If it’s not going to happen on the open market, swinging a deal is something Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done well with.
 
Although the system isn’t as loaded as it once was, the Twins minor league depth right now is in a great place. Royce Lewis probably remains off the table, but he’s less untouchable than I assumed even a year ago. Beyond that, everyone should be under consideration. Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran headline the pitching while Trevor Larnach, Aaron Sabato, and Keoni Cavaco are the offensive gems.
 
Without reading too much into what Passan has reported, there’s certainly a feeling of a silent killer right now. Chicago is looking to load up as the White Sox have their most competitive team in years. The Twins are the clear cream of the crop right now though and remaining there will take legitimate additions. After hearing about payroll decreases and scaled back financial efforts after decreased revenues in 2020, there should have been legitimate fear regarding Minnesota’s opportunity to capitalize.
 
If this is just the beginning of smoke, and we don’t have fire for some time, the hope should be that this is an inkling of the Twins keeping their foot on the gas. The front office and development staff have pushed a largely home-grown roster to the point of opportunity. The window is wide open and continuing to jump through it as long as they can, should be the goal. One Postseason win, or a series victory is where it starts, but this organization has all the makings of a legitimate contender.
 
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This will be my 6th annual top 15 Twins prospect update. As was the case with the midseason edition back in June, we’re dealing with an unprecedented scenario here. Having not played any minor league baseball action in 2020, movement is based more on what I heard out of the alternate site and what took place from prospects appearing at Target Field.
 
The hope would be that a level of normalcy is restored in 2021. While I’m optimistic we see something closer to what we’ve come accustomed to, changes are still in store. Major League Baseball booted just over 40 affiliates, and the regular season is still looking like there may be a delay in getting things underway. I’m hopeful that the yearly trip to Fort Myers happens, but that all remains in flux currently.
 
Here’s where players checked in during previous seasons:
 
2016 Top 15 Prospects
2017 Top 15 Prospects
2018 Top 15 Prospects
2019 Top 15 Prospects
2020 Top 15 Prospects
 
Now, let’s get to it!
 
15. Akil Baddoo OF
 
Taking over this spot from Wander Javier, Baddoo has had somewhat of a similar professional trajectory. He’s been hurt plenty and there’s still much more projection than actual results. However, he’ll play 2021 at 22-years-old and has already reached High-A. Growing into his body more and increasing muscle mass, there’s an exciting combination of strength and speed. He needs to begin producing on the field, but the ceiling is one to get excited about.
 
14. Gilberto Celestino OF
 
Celestino is on the 40-man roster and could play in the big leagues right now from a defensive standpoint. It was good for him to be at CHS Field in 2020 and get additional coaching in what could’ve been a lost year. The Twins are still looking for the additional come-up on the Ryan Pressly trade, and it’s this kid that could end up providing it.
 
13. Matt Wallner OF
 
The Minnesota native will be 23 when he gets back into a professional game having lost his age-22 season. However, Wallner is an advanced bat that has a plus arm. He’s probably more Trevor Larnach than he is Brent Rooker when it comes to athleticism, and that’s a good thing. Reaching Cedar Rapids in his first pro season was a nice showing, and he could be pushed through the system quickly if everything continues to go according to plan.
12. Matt Canterino RHP
 
On the outside of my top 10 but looking in, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Canterino as a top-5 Twins prospect a year from now. He’s got a great arm and was nothing short of dominant in his first seven professional outings. He’ll be 23 in 2021 and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Twins look to get him extended time at Double-A Wichita. He could be a part of the next wave behind the likes of Balazovic and Duran.
 
11. Lewis Thorpe LHP
 
Seeing somewhat of a slip for the Aussie in 2020 was a disappointing reality. Thorpe has always looked like the lefty to bet on in the Twins system, and I really thought he was in for a breakout. Initially dealing with some personal issues during Spring Training, and then fighting ineffectiveness when he was out there, 2020 was as forgettable for Lewis as it was anyone. The talent is all there, and so is the stuff, but it’ll be on him to close the gap between the ears.
 
10. Aaron Sabato 1B
 
I struggled with where to put Sabato as I think what happens and what could go wrong are both pretty straightforward. The former Tar Heel’s bat is beyond legit, but so too is his limit when it comes to impact. He’s never going to move off first base and may ultimately be a designated hitter. There’s less swing and miss than Rooker here, and the floor is probably a bit safer. Without him having played a professional game though, this feels right.
 
9. Keoni Cavaco SS
 
Entirely projection is what you’ve got to go off on Cavaco. He was an extreme helium pick and only got in 20 games before his professional career was put on hold. He’s 19-years-old and will start 2021 at that age. Likely destined to play for the newly designated Low-A Mighty Mussels, Cavaco will have to prove he can stick at shortstop. Playing third base during his prep career, the hope is that the bat develops power, and his 35/4 K/BB was just part of the acclimation process.
 
8. Brent Rooker OF/1B
 
If you were waiting on Brent Rooker’s bat to play in the big leagues before believing, the seven-game sample size certainly didn’t do anything to calm your excitement. It was a short debut, but he crushed the baseball, posted a .960 OPS, and launched his first Major League home run. A fractured forearm ended his season, but he’s all systems go and should be looking at an Opening Day roster spot in 2021.
 
7. Blayne Enlow RHP
 
I might be a bit higher on Enlow than most, but I think this is the next Twins pitching prospect to take a big leap. The front office prioritized him in a draft a couple of years ago, and he’s flashed great stuff since. Enlow will be 22 in 2021, but he’s already reached High-A. The strikeouts need to keep rising, but he’s got some electricity to his arm and has done a good job of avoiding substantial damage. Another step forwards and he’ll make another leap on this list.
 
6. Ryan Jeffers C
 
Like Rooker, Jeffers made his Major League debut in 2020. With Mitch Garver fighting both injury and ineffectiveness the Twins needed to turn to their rising prospect. In 26 games he posted a .791 OPS and did a fine job behind the plate. When drafted the narrative was that the bat would play but uncertainty remained about whether he could hack it behind the plate. Minnesota believed he could, and while that remains a work in progress, a pairing with Garver should give Rocco Baldelli two solid options.
 
5. Jhoan Duran RHP
 
There were a couple of different points that a Duran promotion seemed like a good bet during 2020, but the Twins ultimately never went that direction. He’s got a near triple-digit fastball and I heard plenty of great reports from the people I checked on him with. He probably has a higher ceiling than the pitching prospect ranked higher than him on this list, but the floor is more volatile as well.
 
4. Trevor Larnach OF
 
For the duration they’ve been in the system together it’s been hard to separate Larnach and Kirilloff. They are virtually the same player with the former having had some college seasoning and the latter having a bit of youth on his side. I’d give Larnach the edge when it comes to athleticism, but both should be seen as advanced bats with unmatched upside especially at the plate.
 
3. Jordan Balazovic RHP
 
Hailing from Canada, Balazovic has entrenched himself as the Twins top pitching prospect. He has the right mix of high ceiling ability with a very projectable and safe floor. I’d be pretty shocked if he ends up flaming out and working as a reliever. There may not be ace potential here but expecting him to be a two or three is hardly a lofty expectation.
 
2. Royce Lewis SS
 
Minnesota’s top prospect for the past two years drops a spot for me, but only because I think the year without game action leaves some uncertainty. I’ve been bullish on Lewis, and even if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, I think he’s an All-Star caliber talent. While his ceiling is unquestionably higher than Kirilloff’s, there’s also a more volatile floor here. I really wanted to see how Royce would bounce back in 2020, and despite glowing reports from the alternate site, we didn’t get actual evaluation opportunity. I’m not betting against him by any means.
 
1. Alex Kirilloff OF/1B
 
Talk about being thrown into the fire as Kirilloff was asked to make his Major League debut during an elimination game in the Postseason. He could be ticketed for the starting left field role on Opening Day in 2021, and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be expected to at least match Eddie Rosario’s production level. Kirilloff’s bat is the real deal, and while his arm won’t play quite as high, there’s no reason not to get excited about his prognosis as a regular.
 
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MLB and the MLBPA agreed yesterday to accommodations for a shortened 2020 major league schedule. Many things are to be determined, especially since there is no firm date for the season to begin. I choose to be optimistic that there will be baseball this summer, perhaps without crowds in the stands. One thing agreed to unofficially was an expanded roster. The number that has been published is 29. I am going with that information and will now name the 29 players I expect will be on the roster for Opening Day 2020 whenever that happens.
 
Pitchers--(15) Berríos, Maeda, Odorizzi, Bailey, Chacín, Dobnak, Wisler, May, Clippard, Stashak, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Thielbar, Rogers
 
Catchers--(3) Garver,Avila, Astudillo
 
Infielders--(6) Sanó, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Adrianza, Gonzalez
 
Outfielders--(4) Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave
 
Designated Hitter--(1) Cruz
 
This would take the current roster, subtract Rich Hill and add both Thielbar and Chacín. My reasoning for this roster includes that the schedule will probably have doubleheaders and perhaps will fill some off days with games, meaning that a larger pitching staff in today's environment would be essential. I have included both Dobnak and Chacín, who have been competing for a starting spot and assume that either the Twins will go with a six-man rotation or that one of Dobnak or Chacín will be a "long man" in the bullpen. I assumed that if the staff were expanded by three that the Twins would add a lefty, even though specialists will be minimized by the three-batter rule. Having an occasional different look could be helpful.
 
The fight for the 13th position player is over--they both win. I had thought Astudillo's ability to make contact and play many positions would win out over Cave's general competency, but with an additional position player spot available, both make the team.
 
As for the pitching staff, it is murkier. First of all, Rich Hill has stated he could be ready to pitch in June. Suddenly, he might miss only a couple weeks or perhaps no time at all. Michael Pineda has two-thirds of his sixty game suspension to serve. I would expect that his suspension is prorated, much as service time will be prorated. If the season is 100 games, his suspension would be 25 games. There is nothing official, but that is what I will go with. I am assuming that Hill won't quite be ready when the season starts and that Pineda will have at least three weeks of suspension to serve.
 
I think the Twins have seen enough of Chacín to want to see a bit more. He may not survive the return of Pineda and debut of Hill, but I don't think the Twins want to give up on him quite yet. Dobnak has pitched the best in exhibition games of those competing for a spot and he was outstanding last year in his brief time with the Twins. Wisler and Stashak both make the bullpen and there still is room for a lefty. I picked Thielbar over the others--Barnes, Clay and Coulumbe all had some moments, but I think Thielbar has pitched better. Hardy just had TJ surgery so he is out for 2020.
 
I think a 29-man roster demonstrates the depth that the Twins possess. In other years, all of the players mentioned would easily make the Opening Day roster and more would have a chance. I have not added Devin Smeltzer to the 29, but believe he could be an option to pitch several doubleheader games if that happens. I don't really see him as a reliever and he has an option to use, so if he were called on to pitch as a long man, he could be shuttled to Rochester this year.

Like many diehard fans, it is easy to get immersed in the potential of young prospects. It can be more intoxicating when those prospects are taken first overall in the draft. Royce Lewis is a fantastic prospect with the potential to be one of the best players in the game. The speed, the power, the makeup; it is easy to see why he is viewed as one of the top prospects in the game. However, I have always thought that Royce Lewis is the second-best prospect in the Twins system.
 
Recently, Keith Law had Alex Kirilloff as the Minnesota Twins top prospect and the #9 prospect in all of baseball. I have always been of this opinion as well and it is nice to have someone with as much notoriety as Law agree with me on this aspect. It means even more coming from Law, who tends to value players who play premium positions and are plus athletes over other prospects. Royce Lewis fits that mold to a tee, so the fact that Law has Kirilloff as a top ten prospect tells me how much be believes in his hit tool.
 
The hit tool is the crux of the entire argument of Kirilloff over Lewis. In 2018, Kirilloff hit .333 in in Cedar Rapids with a .391 OBP and a .601 slugging percentage. Once he was promoted to Fort Myers, his average was .362 with a .393 OBP and a .550 slugging. He was 20 years old and hit 20 homers. The fact that Kirilloff had that high of a slugging percentage in the pitcher friendly Florida State League is remarkable. Everyone was expecting Kirilloff to continue to rake in 2019.
 
However, Kirilloff dealt with a wrist injury that sidelined him for a good portion of the first half of the season and zapped his power when he could play. He hit .283 with a .343 OBP and a .413 slugging, which is still decent considering his age in Double-A. However, it is what Kirilloff did in the second half of the season, specifically the playoffs, that leads me to believe it was mostly the injury to blame for the lack of power. Kirilloff had a huge power spike in the second half and finished the year hitting 4 homers in 5 playoff games. Wrist injuries are a killer for hitters, especially for hitters who generate power via leverage and twitch rather than brute strength. Kirilloff would be described as the former, so it would make sense that his power would return as he gets further removed from the injury.
 
While Kirilloff will most likely have above average to plus power as a big leaguer, it is his overall hit tool that will be his calling card. Kirilloff has a sweet swing and has fantastic hand-eye coordination. He also does not strike out at rates that are becoming more common place for hitters selling out for power. While Kirilloff’s walk rates are not high, he does take his fair share of walks which will allow him to continue to get to his power and hit tools by not being a free swinger. It is not out of the question that Kirilloff ends up a .310/.370/.500 type of guy with a plenty of doubles and 25-30 homers. That is a player you want, regardless of the position he plays.
 
This leads us to the main argument of Lewis over Kirilloff as the top prospect, which is positional value. Kirilloff is a guy who ends up as an average right fielder under the best projections. He is an average athlete (compared to other major league baseball players, not people who sit on their couch and write Twins blogs where he would be considered an amazing athlete) with an average to slightly above average arm. He has also spent a fair amount of time at first base already, which is a possibility for Kirilloff as he gets older and fills out more. If Kirilloff ends up a first basemen, the 25-30 homerun power will be something that will deflate his value as a prospect. Lewis on the other hand will either end up a shortstop or, worst case, a premium defender in CF. As we have seen with players like Buxton, getting a premium defender at a premium position has quite a bit of value even if the hitter is average.
 
This is where you must compare the two players and decide. In my opinion, Kirilloff is a player that has a floor as a hitter that is higher than the ceiling of Lewis as a hitter. On his current trajectory, Kirilloff is a guy who will compete for some batting titles, draw some walks, and hit for plenty of extra bases, even if only 20-30 go over the fence. That is a tremendously valuable player at either first or a corner outfield spot. However, Kirilloff is still growing into his body and could grow into some more power as he gets older. Lewis has a higher overall ceiling when you include the defense, but his floor with the bat is not ideal at this point. Lewis is still young for his competition, and I still believe he will be a great player, but the fact that Lewis hit so poorly in Fort Myers and Pensacola and showed very little plate discipline does concern me.
 
Ultimately, I do not believe you can go wrong choosing one of these two guys as your Twins top prospect. The Twins are lucky to have both guys in their system and both could make some noise in the majors within the next year or so. That being said, if I had to choose one prospect to keep, Kirilloff is my guy all the way.

Over the past few seasons there have been more than a few guys signed that have drawn a groan from Twins Territory. What the initial analysis doesn’t take into account is that the Twins have generated a juggernaut in terms of infrastructure, and it's paid dividends in recent seasons. This time around, it’s Matt Wisler looking to generate a return.
 
Early on this winter the front office tabbed former Top 100 prospect Matt Wisler as being worthy of a major league deal. He combined to throw just over 50 innings in the majors last season, and the results generated a 5.61 ERA. Giving up nearly two homers per nine innings, the counting stats were hardly enticing. But then you take a look under the hood.
 
Wisler posted a 4.23 FIP and an even better 3.83 xFIP. His 14.9% whiff rate and 37% chase rate were career highs, and his 11.0 K/9 wasn’t far off from doubling his career averages. The longball has been an issue for a while, but it’s certainly plausible to see what the Twins like.
 
A season ago Wisler had his slider averaging nearly 84 mph (you guessed it, a career high) while flipping it a whopping 70% of the time. He’s abandoned the sinker, went to a four-seam, and became a two-pitch pitcher. In targeting Sergio Romo again for 2020, as well as bringing in Jhoulys Chacin, it seems pitching coach Wes Johnson is looking to tinker with slider-dominant arms.
 
Minnesota is not some sort of a magic cure for the average pitcher, but the infrastructure now in place has produced. Ryne Harper was a 30-year-old rookie when he put up a 3.81 ERA a year ago, and he may be on the outside looking in because of the overall strength shown by the current relief corps. Matt Magill turned sporadic Show time into two consistent years of big-league run. Although he fizzled down the stretch for the Twins, Magill is now in line to be the Seattle Mariners closer after a strong finish.
 
Things don’t always work out the way you plan. Anibal Sanchez was jettisoned after Lance Lynn was signed, and he went on to have a career year with the Atlanta Braves in 2018. Nick Anderson was never given a shot internally and now is one of the best relievers in baseball. The process being in place does not guarantee a no-fault result. What is true though, is that Minnesota can now be seen as a destination for arms to thrive.
 
Maybe Matt Wisler will be a slider-fastball pitcher that can’t keep the pill in the yard and the next step won’t be taken. In a bullpen that should be expected to be among the better units in baseball though, it’s worth finding out if he can’t be a dominant middle relief option and venture down that path under the tutelage of Johnson.
 
We’ve reached the point that assessment of acquisitions shouldn’t be based around what a player was before coming to the Twins organization, but instead what they will become after getting here.
 
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Not all developmental paths are the same, and not all prospects move on a linear path to the major leagues. After being signed as a teenager and briefly generating buzz throughout the system things came to a halt in 2015. Now ready to kick down the door at the major league level, he may be the biggest breakout candidate in 2020.
 
If you don’t know the story, it’s one of stunted development. Tommy John surgery followed by a crazy case of mononucleosis robbed Thorpe of two full seasons. After pitching on August 31, 2014, he was not back in a professional game until May 19, 2017. A lot of growth and maturation took place during that stretch, and since returning to the mound he’s done nothing but impress.
 
His first year back, Thorpe posted a 2.93 ERA and 9.9 K/9 across 83 innings. He followed that up with a 3.54 ERA and 10.9 K/9 at Double and Triple-A during the 2018 campaign. Last year he saw the K/9 jump to a career high 11.1 at Triple-A Rochester, and with the 2.3 BB/9 representing a career low, it was time for big league exposure.
 
Although there were some tough outings in 2019, and the final ERA sat at 6.18 through 27.2 IP, it’s what the rest of the results tell us that remains enticing. Thorpe posted a strong 3.47 FIP and kept up his strikeout rate in the bigs tallying 10.1 K/9. Averaging 91.5 mph on his fastball, this isn’t just a traditional soft tossing lefty with an ability to spin it. He’s predominantly a fastball/slider guy but worked in both a changeup and curveball.
 
With Minnesota having brought in Jhoulys Chacin on a minor league deal, the assumption would be that he has the inside track to crack the 26-man roster as the 5th pitcher. Randy Dobnak, Lewis Thorpe, and Devin Smeltzer will all be in the mix, but I’d imagine their early Triple-A results will line up who gets what opportunity and when. For Thorpe, he has a very strong chance to separate himself from the pack.
 
A former Top-100 prospect, Thorpe’s track record is one that presents a very comforting floor. The ceiling of an ace isn’t there but a guy that can miss bats 12% of the time, expand the zone one-third of the time, and do a good job of limiting hard contact is something any rotation would plug right in the middle. If he’s able to work his way into an opportunity of extended run expecting something like the career results of Michael Pineda, and pop up stretches of Jake Odorizzi, is more than a doable ask.
 
The Twins traded away Brusdar Graterol in part because of their long-term view regarding where his innings would come from. Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic are the pitchers represented on the prospect lists, and both remain starting candidates. Thorpe is the forgotten man in all of this though, and if the steps forward continue with the developmental infrastructure Minnesota has set up, he is primed to make the earliest impact.
 
I won’t put a timeline on where, when, or how long the opportunity will present itself, but when the Southpaw from Down Under dazzles don’t say I didn’t tell you so.
 
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The last stab I took at this was on January 20th. There haven’t been many moves since then, but the ones that have been made are absolutely monumental. While I felt good about where that version of the Twins was, it’s undeniable they are much better off now. Putting out one final projection prior to Spring Training getting underway, here’s where I see things as of today.
 
Projection 1.0
 
Catchers (2) – Mitch Garver, Alex Avila
 
No change here. These two are locked in and ready to go. Garver will need to stave off some expected regression, but he’ll also be dealing with an expanded workload. If Willians Astudillo pushes his was onto the roster, I don’t see the playing time coming behind the plate.
 
Infield (5) – Miguel Sano, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Josh Donaldson. Ehire Adrianza
 
Another position group with no change. Donaldson punctuated the offseason when Minnesota signed him to the 4th biggest deal handed out this winter. This group will need to take a step forwards defensively, and I’m confident that they should be able to.
 
Outfield (5) – Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Marwin Gonzalez, Jake Cave
 
More status quo here. The final position spot comes down to Jake Cave or Willians Astudillo for me, and I don’t see the utility of Astudillo being a net positive. He’s below average everywhere, while Cave can handle the bat and play all three outfield positions. The infield is more stable this season, and although Marwin should spend most of his time in a corner outfield spot, he’s the utility guy you feel comfortable about moving around.
 
Designated Hitter (1) – Nelson Cruz
 
Yes, still here to hit bombas.
 
Rotation (5) – Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kenta Maeda, Homer Bailey, Jhoulys Chacin
 
This is the group that has seen the most change. Chacin was signed to a minor league deal, and while 2019 was awful, he was great in 2018. If the Twins see signs of that at all during the spring, they’ll have picked up a very solid 5th starter. I like the long-term ability of Lewis Thorpe, and both Randy Dobnak and Devin Smeltzer have looked strong, but they all have options remaining. Now adding a bonafide stud in Kenta Maeda, this is a group that should be plenty capable of racing out to a second straight division title.
 
Bullpen (8) – Taylor Rogers. Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Duffey, Tyler Clippard, Zack Littell, Matt Wisler, Cody Stashak
 
This group stays the same as I had it in round one, but that was prior to Minnesota designating Brusdar Graterol a reliever. He absolutely would have been on the roster, but instead was used to swing the deal for Maeda. Coming off a 2019 that saw this group finish as the third best unit in baseball, they’ve added some very quality pieces to make another run at the top.
 
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In a bizarre and frustrating twist, the Red Sox are staunchly refusing to get anything less than Graterol (and more) from the Twins. It just ain’t gonna work with Boston, Falvine.
 
Kenta Maeda, with his underrated toolbox, would look great in Minnesota. Since his rookie season in 2016, Maeda ranks second to Max Scherzer among all pitchers with at least 1,000 at-bats against right-handed hitters (.199). In a right-handed heavy league and division, his prowess is welcomed with open arms.
 
A large pull to Madison Bumgarner was his ability to pitch at an extremely high level in October. On a much lesser but comparably impressive scale, Maeda has a 3.31 ERA in 24 postseason games. Most of his appearances came out of the bullpen, but I foresee Maeda pitching the first four or five innings against the Yankees or Astros this October.
 
Brusdar Graterol is an immense talent. His ability and upside have been tarnished in recent days by both the industry and Twins fans convincing themselves that he really isn’t that great. He is special. I wasn’t against this Graterol-for-Maeda swap, but I don’t want to see Brusdar go. Keep him as an overpowering gun in the 2020 bullpen if you can. He is an asset on and off the field for Minnesota.
 
The Twins farm system is so incredibly deep with MLB-ready arms and bats. I am of the belief that they could put together a package for the Dodgers to acquire Maeda. I think he’s going to be traded regardless, so why not cut out the Red Sox, shift the focus away from Graterol, and group two or three top 20 prospects for Maeda?
 
The Dodgers can work separately for Mookie Betts and David Price, and the Twins can exit this circus with Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox. Stash Graterol in an already great bullpen, pencil in Maeda as your number three starter, and let’s go to battle starting March 26th in Oakland.
 
Would the Dodgers push to grab Graterol for their own World Series caliber roster? Probably. Say no. Flex your muscles of depth in the farm system and work a little magic to keep arguably your best pitching prospect while obtaining Maeda, who makes this Twins team that much better. This has been a wild ride, but the Twins can come out on top, and in a big way.
 
What do you think? Comment below!

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine just put an absolute bow on the 2020 Minnesota Twins offseason. After acquiring Josh Donaldson in January, the refrain was whether or not he could pitch. Now nabbing Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers, the answer is yes he can.
 
Across Twins Territory there should be some absolute shock with this one. Not only was the impact-pitching arm acquired, but it absolutely cost an impact prospect. Brusdar Graterol showed up on the Major League scene last summer and brandished his triple-digit fastball. Showing off the bazooka arm, it was hard not to dream on him as a starting prospect.
 
It was apparent that there have been concerns about what Graterol profiles at in the bigs however. He’s never pitched more than 102 innings in a season, and he never worked exclusively as a starter in 2019. The talk going into the year was that Minnesota would unleash him in the pen, and the feeling was he had not yet developed the necessary secondary stuff to make it multiple times through the order.
 
Any time you see a big name prospect like this moved, it’s going to be hard to sift through the feelings. The message from Minnesota here is clear however. The window is open and the front office has kicked down the door. They see Graterol as a reliever long term, and conversely viewed him as the third best option in the up and coming trio including Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran.
 
In Maeda the Twins get their coveted impact arm. He’s soon-to-be 32-years-old and is not a free agent until 2024. He will be paid just $3.125 million per year the rest of his deal, and he’s a strikeout threat pumping double-digits per nine innings. I'm not sure Minnesota viewed the tradeoff like this when the offseason started, but they passed on signing a 30-year-old Madison Bumgarner (with nearly identical numbers) to a five-year deal paying $17 million per season. In comparison, their decision looks pretty good.
 

 
Although Maeda’s ERA’s haven’t always been glowing, he’s posted a FIP north of 4.00 just once in his four year MLB career. Walks have crept up in recent years, but he generally does a good job avoiding danger. Slotting in behind both Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi, there’s zero reason why he can’t elevate and assume an even large role in the rotation.
 
This move pushes Minnesota’s payroll up above $140 million landing somewhere around $145 million. That’s a nice expansion on the previous record of $128.4 million in 2018, and gives them plenty of flexibility now and in the future.
Buckle up Twins fans; we’ve got a contender here.
 
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I’m going to dive into blogging here and see where it goes. Sometimes, as a writer, the hardest thing is to come up with an idea that’s worth writing about and that people will actually be interested to read. I expect that to be my struggle, but I’ve got what I think will be an interesting series to kick things off, and maybe that will be the extent of my contributions. Time will tell.
 
In any case, nobody wants to read about me. You want to see what information you can glean about our Twins. Given the rampant discussions on Twitter and on various blogs regarding the state of the Twins’ pitching staff, I thought it would be interesting to do a series on the numbers underlying the starters currently projected to be in the mix for the Twins.
 
While I’m sure others will make starts this season, here are the guys I’m hoping to work my way through for this series:
Jose Berrios
Jake Odorizzi
Michael Pineda
Rich Hill
Homer Bailey
Devin Smeltzer
Lewis Thorpe
Randy Dobnak
 
By way of framing the series, I think there are pretty clearly three different groups. The known (but in some cases misunderstood) quantities, the new veterans, and the prospects.
 
When the season starts, we know Pineda and Hill will not be in the rotation, and we know Berrios, Odorizzi, and Bailey will be (barring injury, of course). That being the case, I decided to start off by diving into the three prospects (a term I’m using loosely, given the MLB experience they got last year), starting with Dobnak.
 
A common question we hear, read, and think to ourselves as we are trying to fall asleep: “Can Randy Dobnak be a key piece of a successful playoff run?” I can cut to the chase and just say the answer is yes, but if you want to know why, go ahead and keep reading the words.
 
Let’s start by looking at Dobnak’s surface-level stats:
28.1 IP – lots and lots of caveats about the small sample
7.31 K/9 – not inspiring, but we will need to take a look at his swinging strike rates
1.59 BB/9 – elite, but let’s see how often he’s really in the strike zone
1.59 ERA – wow, but a lot of this depends on the above
2.90 FIP – also wow
3.77 xFIP – still wow, but we will need to look into his batted ball tendencies because 0.32 HR/9 is the reason for the jump from his FIP to his xFIP.

Okay, so we have a few things to dive into:
Swinging Strike Rates, which are generally highly correlated to K/9
Zone Percentage, which is highly correlated to BB/9
Batted Ball Tendencies, which are going to be a bit more difficult to use to extrapolate, given the small sample.

Getting hitters to swing and miss, and throwing strikes are generally skills the pitcher possesses (or does not), while the results – K/9, BB/9, HR/9, etc. Fluctuate due to randomness, umpire tendencies, opponents’ skill, etc. (esp in small samples).
 
Here’s what we see for Dobnak on those plate discipline skills:
43.8% of his pitches were in the strike zone
12.9% of his pitches resulted in a swinging strike

Putting those numbers into context, 61 pitchers qualified for the ERA title last season, so the median pitcher would be the one whose result was 31st among qualified starters. For swinging strike, it turns out that is a couple of familiar names: Jose Berrios and Homer Bailey at 10.8 percent. Looking at zone percentage, there is a three way tie among Jeff Smardzija, Mike Soroka, and Bailey again at 42.6 percent (a bit of a preview of the Bailey post. Hmm). By now you’ve surely noticed that Dobnak’s numbers were markedly above the median.
 
In fact, his zone percentage of 43.8% would have tied him with Zach Eflin for 20th among all qualified starting pitchers, just a tick below Noah Syndergaard at 43.9 percent. His swinging strike rate of 12.9% puts him in a three way tie with Charlie Morton and Clayton Kershaw, who were tied for 14th among qualified starters. Obviously good company.
 
It gets better. If you look at qualified starters who posted at least a 12.9% swinging strike rate combined with a 43.9% zone percentage – that rare combination of being in the zone and missing bats – here is the list you get for 2019:
Gerrit Cole – 16.8%/45.2%
Max Scherzer – 16.4%/45.6%
Justin Verlander – 16.1%/45.2%
Lucas Giolito – 15%/47.2%
Yu Darvish – 13.4%/44.5%
Charlie Morton – 12.9%/45.1%

Just missed:
Clayton Kershaw
German Marquez
Lance Lynn
Noah Syndergaard
Trevor Bauer
Walker Buehler

Does this mean Dobnak is in the company of these elite aces? Of course not. What it does suggest, though, is that his success was not a fluke. He displayed an elite combination of skills in missing bats (which generates strikeouts) and living in the strike zone (which prevents walks). This suggests that he has considerable upside. He also threw essentially a major league innings load last year – compiling more than 160 innings across 4 levels from High A to the majors. This suggests he’s capable of providing the Twins with volume as well as quality, something that is not always the case for prospect pitchers.
 
There are reasons to be worried, though. The difference between Dobnak’s FIP and his xFIP was driven by an unsustainably low 5.3% HR/FB rate. The lowest HR/FB rate among qualified starters was 9.3%, and given Dobnak’s 42.5% hard hit rate, it’s safe to assume more of those fly balls will reach the seats going forward. That said, if he regresses to the mean in HR/9 and posts 150 innings with a sub-4.00 ERA, that’s obviously a serviceable starting pitcher. And, given that FIP and xFIP were driven by his 7.31 K/9, if those swinging strikes turn that into a 9.00+ K/9, he has considerable upside to deliver a lower ERA.

2020 Offseason Plan
 
My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team
 
NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.
 
COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29
 
POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B
 
OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.
 
LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.
 
STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)
 
BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)
 
POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol
 
THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options
 
REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)
 
PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells
 
also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.
 
PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.

2020 Offseason Plan
 
My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team
 
NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.
 
COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29
 
POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B
 
OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.
 
LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.
 
STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)
 
BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)
 
POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol
 
THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options
 
REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)
 
PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells
 
also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.
 
PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.

Overall, it's not hard to be excited about the Twins in 2020 given a 101 win season in 2019. The ending certainly wasn't ideal, but 2019 showed us that our window is open and it should be for a few years. Cleveland remains the only real competition in the central. Chicago is up and coming, but they are likely another year or two away before they can have a realistic shot of competing. KC and Detroit are dumpster fires right now. So with that in mind, it's up to Falvey and Levine to construct a roster that can not only win the central but advance deep into the post season.
 
There's no question that starting pitching is our biggest need, and if I were running the team, this is where I would focus if I were them, but we need to start by trimming and expanding the roster in advance of the Rule V draft. The Twins already made the easiest of moves by picking up Nelson Cruz's option, but it gets a bit tougher from here: This is our current 40 man roster. The following players are free agents: Gibson, Odorizzi, Schoop, Romo, and Castro. That leaves us at 36 before changes are made. I'd DFA/nontender/trade if someone wants to give up something for the following as well: Sam Dyson, Kohl Stewart, Ronald Torreyes, Ryan Lamarre, Trevor Hildenberger, and Ian Miller. I would also not pick up Perez's option. That brings us down to 28 guys on the roster going into winter meetings. Buxton and Poppen will most definitely return, so that moves us up to 30. CJ Cron is a bit of a wild card here. His play may not be worth the money spent on tendering him, but there's no replacement waiting in the wings just yet (more on him in a bit, but I haven't removed his spot). So as it stands right now, we need the following (several starting pitchers, a backup catcher, an 2B (though there's a replacement in house), possibly a 1B, and if possible another shut down reliever). Other than starting pitching help, this team is in pretty good shape...
 
So on that note, I'm going to start by tendering Odorizzi a QO, with the clear desire to sign him to a 3 year deal. I'm going to guestimate that at 3/45 to make it work, as the 17M QO is probably the starting point to a negotiation. Jake was very good for us this year, but I'm not sure he's good enough for teams to surrender a pick and pay him 50+M on a multi-year deal. That brings the roster to 31. With Odorizzi at 17M, our current payroll sits at 48M. I'm going to tender the following candidates with a note that I'd be willing to extend any extension candidate willing to sign a reasonable deal. Some players won't sign them (Buxton for sure as his value is low due to health), but I suspect a couple guys likely sign a longer term contract.
Ehire Adrianza – $1.9MM
Trevor May – $2.1MM (extension candidate)
Eddie Rosario – $8.9MM (I'd stay year to year here, I could see trading him if a better FA option was available, but I'm most likely tendering him)
Miguel Sano – $5.9MM (extension candidate)
Byron Buxton – $2.9MM (extension candidate)
Taylor Rogers – $3.9MM (extension candidate)
Tyler Duffey – $1.1MM (extension candidate)
Jose Berrios – $5.4MM (extension candidate)

That's an additional 32.1M. Add Garver in there as he's not going anywhere, but his total is about .5M. That leaves payroll at roughly 81M without Cron. Cron's arb estimate is around 7.7M, which isn't terrible for a .780 OPS. He's roughly an average bat at 1B. The problem with him though is that there aren't ML ready options to take his place... not now at least. Rooker, Raley and Weil could use more seasoning, and Kirilloff is also questionable at this point. Next year at this time, one of those guys will hopefully be knocking at the door or perhaps even had some success at the major league level, but I'm not sure there should be a plan to count on a rookie to perform. Surveying the FA market, you have a couple options available. Josh Donaldson would likely be my primary target, as he could also play 3B giving Baldelli some flexibility with Sano/Garver at 1B on occasion as well. I doubt he comes cheap, and certainly not cheaper than Cron. He's likely going to get something similar to his salary last season and quite possibly a multi-year deal, so I'd guess around 20M. Zimmerman, Rizzo, and Thames all have club options available, and to be honest there really isn't much in terms of sure fire help out there. I don't think trading for a 1B makes any sense at all unless there's someone who is essentially on the last year of his deal and performing. In all, I think tendering Cron is the right answer here unless they know they can get Donaldson... and I doubt that. So I tender him at 7.7M bringing our payroll up to roughly 89M.
 
I'm not quite sure who all needs protecting and exposing. I'm using roster resource and protecting anyone that has R5 or Dec 19 as their status if their play warrants it. That said, I know this tool isn't completely accurate, so hopefully I haven't missed anyone. I see 10 names that warrant discussion. Let's start with the easy ones:
 
Candidates:
Griffin Jax (protect)
Luke Raley (protect)
Jake Reed (expose. He was not good last year)
Zander Wiel (expose. He was not good last year)

It gets a bit more difficult from here.
Travis Blankenhorn - He will likely get a crack at AAA in his age 23 season. He had a .785 OPS in AA, and really does seem to be turning a corner. Those numbers are nothing special, but question at hand is can he stick on a ML roster. I don't think it's worth the risk. I protect him.
Jhoan Duran - Duran likely starts in AA in his age 22 season, though he could also be promoted as he did spent some time there. He does a fantastic job keeping the ball in the park. His walk rate is acceptable and he doesn't give a lot of hits. He's kept his K rate around 10/9 IP for the last 2 seasons. I protect him.
Dakota Chalmers - Chalmers is a sleeper. I could see a bad team poaching him and stashing him with their extra spot as he will be 23 next season. The MLB roster size expands to 26 in 2020, and I think bad teams will use that to grab players like Chalmers with upside who may be exposed. The Twins have a few of them and ultimately I think someone gets left off. Chalmers is posting some sexy strike out numbers striking out 48 in 34 innings of relief work. He's also very stingy with the long ball. His walk rate though is scary as he gave 23 free passes. Bottom line for Chalmers is that right now, he won't do well on a major league roster. His AFL performance to date has not changed my view of this. I'm going to expose him.
Tom Hackimer - Hackimer pitched pretty well in his age 25 season in AA. He's one that could possibly stick in a mop up role in MLB. I lean towards not protecting him as well given his age. He got the strikeouts this season, his walk rate was a bit high at just over 4 per 9 innings but overall had a pretty good season between high A and AA. He likely starts in AA or AAA, but I'm going to expose him.
Jovani Moran - Moran is a similar pitcher to Chalmers if you look at the numbers. He gets lots of strikeouts and gives up too many free passes though he tends to be prone to the long ball. He will also be 23 next season. He's another one risking losing, but I think I expose him.
Tyler Wells - Wells is the hardest one. He was absolutely money in the minors but TJS derailed his 2019 season before it started. He will be rehabbing and should be able to pitch most of the year. I think the upside is too good to risk this, so I keep him.

That leaves us with 5 additions. Our roster now sits at 36. We need to figure out at least 2 starting pitchers, a backup C, and ideally a shutdown RP. We're also sitting on a couple individuals (Harper, Poppen, and Gonsalves) that I'd like to keep but could be set free in the event a better opportunity comes along through cost cutting or trade.
 
Falvey and Levine stated they weren't afraid to blow up the payroll when the windows is open, so now it's time to see if they will put the Pohlad's money to the test. They need pitching help badly, and having someone that can sit in front of Odorizzi and Berrios is a must in my opinion. Sign Gerrit Cole or Steven Strassburg (if he opts out) to a 5 or 6 year deal at 30M/season. That's probably what it will take to get either one of them. Feasibly, they could get them both and still have payroll sitting south of 150M, but I'm guessing that won't happen as much as I'd like and there are other needs I'd rather address... But they have to go big here, even if that means out bidding the competition by a significant margin. That moves payroll to $119M and gives us a pretty nice starting trio in Cole, Berrios, and Odorizzi. I'm guessing there's a QO attached here too for Cole at least, and I sacrifice the pick.
 
They still need 2 more pitchers. I'm fine letting Dobnak, Thorpe, Gonsalves, and Smeltzer compete for one of the spots. Most of these guys did well enough that I'm not losing sleep over the role. It's Dobnak's to lose at this point, but he earned it in limited looks. The reality is that unless there's a trade in the works that involves sending one or two of these guys off as part of a deal for a more established option such as say Mike Minor, I think this spot is going to go to pre-arb guys. That's another 500k on the payroll. Note that I didn't mention Graterol. I'm assuming he's going to remain as a starter, but that also means he's capped at about 120 innings. He could be this guy as well, but I think he could pair well with Michael Pineda if they bring him back... which brings me to my next FA target:
 
There are a few names I'd probably target here, they will have varying costs/years attached to them: Bumgardner, Wheeler, and Pineda would likely be my top 3. I'm personally not sold on Ryu from the Dodgers, but if my analytics guys liked him, then perhaps he's an option as well. Pineda actually pairs well with Graterol in that he can be stretched out and be the 5th starter in April/May and switch more to long relief/spot starting as the season wears on and Pineda returns from his suspension. That would keep Graterol's innings around 120 for the year (baring injury of course, which with Graterol is not low risk). Pineda would have been a QO option had he not been suspended. With roughly 40 days left on his suspension and of course the risk that he gets suspended again for longer, he's likely going to sign for much less than that. I'd offer him a 1/7 make good deal unless of course there's an unexpected price drop for the other guys on this list. That also means Graterol is on the 26 man, so that's another 500k to add to the payroll. If one of these other big names sign, I'm likely going to give Graterol a late start to his season in AAA and stretch him out to be the spot starter for the inevitable pitching injury. Once he gets closer to his 120, I'd shift him to the MLB pen during the stretch run.
 
If you're keeping track at this point, I've added another 8M here and now I'm sitting at roughly 127M.
 
Next up, I target a catcher. I'm not liking the idea of going with Astrudillo as my backup C. Rortvedt and Jeffers may be knocking at the door next year at this time, but counting on either in 2020 would not be wise. Astrudillo, while a fan favorite, still has options and is extremely valuable to the team earning frequent flier miles between Rochester and Minneapolis when someone gets hurt, so I'm going to sign someone. Retaining Castro is fine in my opinion if he's OK with a backup role. I'm looking though for no more than a two year deal. Castro works fine here, but I'd also target Austin Romine, Brian McCann, or Steven Voght. I'd be fine sacrificing a few home runs for some OBP. These guys are not young, so they won't be getting a huge deal. I'm going to guess it will be somewhere around 2/10-15, giving you a 5-8M cost in payroll. I'm going to assume this is 6M for now, bringing payroll up to 133.
 
Last, I'm targeting a RP. I didn't learn my lesson about free agent relievers (and hopefully I'll update that blog at some point later this month), and there's 1 FA reliever that I want on this team and think that Falvey should pay for. I'm targeting Will Smith and spending what it takes to get him. I'm guessing he's signing for a 3-4 year deal at 10M+. He signed a 3/24 deal with SF in his last go around, and I have to think he's going to get at least that. I'm going to assume 3/30, but I'd be willing to pay more.
 
That brings payroll up to 143.
 
My 26 man roster is now as follows:
C - Garver
1B - Cron
2B - Arraez or Gordon
3B - Sano
SS - Polanco
CF - Buxton
RF/LF - Rosario/Kepler
DH - Cruz
 
SP
Cole/Strassburg, Berrios, Odorizzi, Graterol/Pineda or other pitching FA, Dobnak
 
RP
Smith, May, Duffey, Rodgers, Littell, Graterol, Harper (I'd have some open competition, but these are who I've penciled in).
 
Bench
Adrianza, Cave, Castro or other FA, Gonzalez
 
I didn't count the salaries of Littell, Harper, and Cave or whomever internally would beat them out which comes out to another 1.5M. That puts my total payroll at roughly 144.5. I would hope this could go up a bit if my estimates were a bit low, but there's room there in my opinion.
 
So there you have it. We can add a top shelf starter and relief pitcher and keep our payroll under 150M. I'm not sure what the front office will target, but this seems like a very reasonable option to field a very competitive team in 2020 and one with a good shot of advancing deep in the post season.

2019 has been an exhilarating ride. This is easily the best Twins team since 2010(and arguably, since 2006). While success is by no means assured this year, suffice it to say that 2019 has brought us to the cusp of serious playoff contention. While recent erratic play, particularly in the rotation and in the field, has tempered our chances for advancement , most of us still feel pretty comfortable about seeing playoff games in Target Field this year. We have a whole month to go, but as of today, I believe our chances of making the playoffs are better than 50%.
 
With that said, my concerns are for the future. Is this success sustainable? Right now, I have my doubts, for several reasons:
 
1. In a way 2019 is a fluke in the AL Central. The Indians have been beset by horrific injuries: Kluber, Carrasco, Lindos, now Ramirez. They traded away Bauer, easily their #1 or 2 starter this year, and yet still have enough minor league pitching depth to take 3 of 4 from the Twins in Minnesota and are hanging in there despite 7 straight games against the NY teams. They lost Brantley to FA and yet they have managed to have one of the major's top offenses post All Star. Kudos to Francona and the Indians' player development staff for surviving such hits and still be a solid contender for the playoffs. Next year, with better health, this is still a formidable team!
 
2. The remainder of the AL Central is woeful, but this is not likely next year. The Sox, with some great young hitters(Roberts could be the best of them all), some solid holdovers(Abreu, Anderson, McCann), and an emerging rotation with a bonafide ace in Giolito, a rapidly improving Lopez, a solid veteran in Nova and two potential stars in Kopech and Cease, are bound to be more competitive next year. They are no longer pushovers and will be a contender at least for a WC in 2020. You heard it here first.
 
3. The Twins historic offense year is just not sustainable. Too many players are having career years. Is it likely this will reoccur next year? Sure, the Twins have rising stars in Buxton, Sano and Kepler, but who else do we consider future stars? Is Garver really this good? Is Polanco's first half as good as it's going to get. Nelson Cruz will be 40 next year, etc., etc. Yes, we will likely have a solid lineup next year, but hardly the overpowering one that showed up in 2019. This type of home run surge is just unsustainable. I would feel much better if we had more consistent hitting rather than an all or nothing attack. Arraez has been a great new addition, but he's already sliding a bit. Has the league started figuring him out? Are there any other minor leaguers who figure to have the same impact next year as Arraez has?
 
4. As most TD readers have noted, the Twins' rotation looks very shaky for 2020. Berrios is showing his true colors as a good but inconsistent starter. He is nowhere near an ace, which is why I and others pleaded with the FO to pull out all the stops to acquire a top starter at the trade deadline. Does anyone expect the Twins rotation to hold up to the Yankees or Astros' lineups in October? Next year is far shakier without Odorizzi and Pineda, arguably our two best starters now. Heaven help us if the FO decides not to re-sign both these guys. Gibson doesn't deserve an extension and the jury is still out on Perez. Has anyone stood out in the upper minors this year? The Ryan regime was a colossal failure in developing pitching and while Falvine hasn't been around long enough, their decision to sacrifice a #1 pitcher for Lewis was a real leap of faith to an organization with a lack of big-time pitching prospects. Sure we have some promising position-player prospects in the minors now but pitching wins championships - a fact proven over and over again. This organization's lack of success in developing either rotation stalwarts or lights-out stoppers must give even the most optimistic doubt they can do it in the future. Too bad spending money on a free agent or two is just not in this franchise's DNA!
 
All this is not to say that the Twins will not be competitive next year, but do you really think their chances will be better than the present? The window was wide open this year, but Falvey decided to be cautious at the trade deadline despite having sizable payroll space and a nice surplus of prospects to trade. You don't have many chances in this game for the brass ring - a fact that Falvey and company might rue in future years.