bean5302

I agree. Gardy, Molitor and Ryan didn't like Vargas and were quick to kick him to the curb. The Twins were packed with 1B/DH's already so Vargas didn't have a clear role on the team.

I was about to argue Martin's floor being equal to Lewis, but even though I'm concerned about Lewis, I honestly still do think Lewis has a higher ceiling. The floor is definitely far higher for Martin, though. Martin will absolutely make MLB and he looks like a near guaranteed starter at least. My viewpoint on the Twins' system is pretty much the same as I've read from analysts. Very deep with a lot of middle value talent, but thin in regard to elite talent. One of the reasons it's so hard to rank the Twins' system is the difficulty in debating a clearly superior talent between numbers 14 and 30, for instance. I'd say the same is the case in 9-14 and 3-8.

If you really want to get fun with SS, Eduardo Escobar is a free agent. Sprint speed is still very good and virtually identical to what it was in 2016. His 5-25 foot speed is nearly identical to Byron Buxton this year (not joking) in statcast. Escobar is not elite in terms of 5 foot speed and quickness, but it's entirely possible he would be an adequate shortstop placed into the position.

Story may not be looking quite as good as the other elites, but if he's truly interested in signing a 1 year contract, he'd take the QO. Story is on pace for about 3.0 WAR this year. Sprint speed, K rate, BB rate, barrel rate, hard hit rate, exit velocity, launch angle, pull, center, opposite rates. They're all normal for him. His HR/FB rate and line drive rate are down a bit with his grounders up a bit, but honestly, it looks a lot like luck this year with his BABIP 40 points below his career average. His max and average home run distance is normal, but his average distance is down a bit, but it's still top 25%. Either Story has been really lucky for 3 years in a row or he's been unlucky this year. I suspect most teams are going to evaluate him as such. With 1.5 months left, there's still some time for Story to pad his stats as well. I don't see a way Story won't get at least 6-8 years and $150MM-200MM+

I should point out, I don't think there's anything to be mad about as Twins fans. The front office has made their call on the subject. They've seen all they need to of Nick Gordon and are seemingly preparing to move on after the season. Here's hoping they make the right call and another team isn't hugely rewarded with a legit starting shortstop for giving Gordon a better opportunity if the Twins do leave him off the 40 man.

Right. It's so they can put him in as a defensive replacement if Simmons gets pinch hit for or gets hurt. Gordon has been on the roster for 83 games so far this year by my count. He's played in 37 of those 83 games and started at shortstop 0 times while appearing at shortstop in 1 game for 5.0 innings. The Twins haven't even had Nick Gordon playing consistent SS in the minors since his last demotion to AAA. On his most recent assignment with the Saints, Gordon appeared at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, CF and as a pinch hitter starting in only 70% of Saints games. He's below Drew Maggi and JT Riddle on the SS depth chart as both of those guys had more time playing SS than Gordon in his most recent stint. This thread was about next year's potential starting shortstops. If you're implying the Twins have any remote interest in starting Nick Gordon at SS in 2022, I just don't see any evidence to suggest it's a possibility. In fact, I think it's plenty clear the Twins don't view Gordon as a 40 man roster candidate at this point.

I'm not sure I agree about Kennys Vargas getting too many chances and his numbers look surprisingly close to Sano's at the MLB level, but with way fewer games and opportunities. Vargas did have an awful age 24 season with 184 plate appearances, but he played better the next two seasons. The Twins cut bait on Vargas after a wRC+ 119 and 99 at ages 25 and 26 letting him spend an unimpressive year in Rochester at age 27 before he went to Japan. Ultimately, Vargas never really showed much potential after the MLB seasons with the Twins, but his raw power was absolutely on par with Rookers and better than Sano's IMHO. Interestingly enough, he's in the Mexican League this year .310/.418/.603 OPS 1.020, but while the Mexican League is listed as AAA level, I think most comparisons actually show it's A+ or something, I read somewhere... There's also another player in the Mexican League who may be a dark horse to get a MiLB contract as depth with the slight potential of returning to MLB. Addison Russell is hanging out down there. .319/.405/.494 OPS 900. Russell was never a good bat at SS, but he did play good defense.

...and he's on the bench for the game. Gordon is on the 40 man, he has options and he can provide bench utility.

Honestly, with all the logjammed talent, the potential the new CBA could change roster size, team control, universal DH's etc, trying to figure out how tight things are for the Twins before the rule 5 draft is kinda tough. I expect the Twins will move at least a couple players this offseason if the universal DH doesn't happen and maybe 3-4 if it does.

Buxton is more valuable than Sano. Between the two of them, Buxton is probably more productive at the plate, but Buxton also provides enormous defensive value when he plays. Sano is a boat anchor on the team in the field and should really be relegated to DH where his league average bat doesn't produce more than scrub value. Non relief pitcher players producing less 2.0 WAR hurt a team's chances at the playoffs and arguing Sano is a 2.0 WAR player as a DH at this point in his career is dubious. That said, I pointed out I have no "faith" in Sano. I didn't say Sano has no talent or that it's impossible for Sano to succeed. I just don't think he will. I believe Sano has the talent to be much better than he is, but the Twins are overloaded at 3B/1B/DH players as it is giving him few ironclad paths to production. If Sano were to drop to 225-230lbs, I fully expect he could still be an All Star caliber third baseman, but that is pure fantasy. At least I actually think Sano is trying hard right now to improve his game due to a wake up call when he essentially lost his starting spot, but the idea of Sano sustaining the effort just doesn't seem realistic to me.

Duffey's been throwing a ton of fastballs right in the middle of the zone this year instead of staying to the sides of the plate like he did in 2020. His curve has expanded up higher and into the middle of the strike zone this year as well.

Yes, I did cut off 2017. You cut off 2016 when he could actually play 3B and still only produced 1.2 WAR so I could accuse you of lying with statistics. Then you could argue I cut off 2015, when he looked like a future All Star 3B. It's called supporting an argument. There are endless ways I could choose to critque Sano which would be more damning of his play. WAR was just easy, low hanging fruit which compiles almost everything together. In regard to your SSS arguments, Sano has never played more than 116 games in a season. Considering how much flak Buxton gets, it probably sounds surprising to people Sano has never been a qualified hitter for a normal season in his career. If we doubled his 2020 season, he'd still only have 1.0 WAR across a typical Sano full season and a wRC+ of 99 who is now a DH. He had 299 (300) plate appearances in 2018. That's not really small sample size. Values have already become pretty stable at that point. For the record, I'm looking at the trend and Sano's trend has been obvious. I typically look at the last 3-4 years for players because it removes luck or a season of playing hurt (like Polanco), etc. I don't look further back than that because it's not relevant. Players change over time and looking at what they did 5 years ago isn't relevant to the player's expected value today.

To be honest, I thought it was more like a strawman wearing a jesters hat and a fat suit.

Obviously concerned about a potential Balazovic injury at this point. Even if Balazovic isn't hurt, the Twins need to shut him down for a couple weeks. I can't help but think he's got some dead arm going on at this point and throwing hard with a dead arm is a sure fire way to get him hurt. I think Canterino is ready for AA at this point. With a little over a month left to play, he can certainly slot into Balazovic's spot while Balazovic rests up.

I know you bring this up... but Saints games are more expensive than Twins games right now so by this logic, shouldn't the Saints be demanding the Twins demote players so the paying customers can get their money's worth?

I have no faith in Sano. It's awfully hard to ignore he's going to finish this year as the 3rd in the last 4 where he produced 0.5 WAR or less. He's a pure DH at this point with a -42.50 UZR/150 at 1B and it's just bizzare the Twins could keep trotting him out there. He might actually have 1.0 WAR this year if he wasn't in the field booting half the balls that come his way.

Just working purely off memory in the moment Sano will be back on the roster next year, no question, but some things are likely to move around.

I think opening day 2023 is very aggressive for Lewis. Unless a completely torn ACL and 2 years away from competitive baseball makes him better. Lewis is going to be very rusty going into next year. I don't understand the expectation he could be an opening day 2022 MLB or AAA player. He didn't even perform adequately at AA two years ago. If I were the Twins, I start him in A+ and give him a chance to get some confidence and his bearings with the hope he catches on to promote him to AA after 30 games or so. Then give him the rest of the year at AA unless he looks like Miranda has this year and then maybe a promotion to AAA after the trade deadline. To be on the opening day 2023 roster, Lewis would have to A ) Recover from a completely torn ACL and get back to full speed and look good before spring training games start. B ) Knock the cover off the ball while playing vastly improved defense at AA for at least 75 games. C ) Continue to shred and play great defense at AAA through the rest of July/August after his promotion D ) Look great on a September call up to the MLB team. If Lewis does all that, he'll be showing a high likelihood of fulfilling his potential ceiling as an MVP caliber shortstop. What an ask considering the situation!

Yeah, they combined to basically throw a Maddux!

I think versatility is great. This front office lacks understanding versatility is supposed to include competence. I think Falvey jumped forward through the part where Hatteberg had to learn how to play 1B and thought Wash was joking when he said it was incredibly hard to play first base while his hero Billy Beane said its not that hard. Just moving guys around doesn't make them "versatile" it makes them bad defenders and the Twins have the 3rd worst defense in the game.

It's well established you're angry about the Twins' performance. The members of this site have certainly picked up on it.

The Twins have moved on from Gordon. He's not even playing SS in AAA anymore, he's being used as an IF/OF utility guy. He's not going to get a 40 man roster spot. 0% Austin Martin couldn't supplant Palacios at SS. 0% Jose Miranda hasn't played any significant time at SS since 2016. 0% Jorge Polanco. Yeah, I could see the Twins shifting him back over to SS despite being the worst fielding shortstop in the game in the past 20 years. 40% Royce Lewis. It would be totally bonkers to make him opening day shortstop. Lewis is a prospect who wasn't even treading water at AA at the plate while being absolutely a nightmare in the field in his last full competition experience 2 years ago and is now rehabbing a full tear of his ACL. 0% JT Riddle. Yeah. MiLB roster filler entering his second year or arbitration eligibility isn't happening. 0%. Drew Maggi? He's arbitration eligible next year so he'll be non-tendered. 0% Jermaine Palacios. I have no idea on this one. He's one of the best SS at AA this year and certainly top 3 who is still sitting in AA despite the fact the Twins have nothing blocking him or on the roster. I really expect the Twins to leave him off the roster. 5% Andrelton Simmons. LOL all you want, everything seems to point to Simmons being back next year IMHO. He's still playing every day and the Twins haven't even bothered to look at Palacios despite a stellar performance in AA. It's ridiculous, but I can't see why the Twins would be playing Simmons every day at this point if they hadn't decided this year is a fluke and they'll be ohhhhhhh so smart when they sign him for peanuts and they fix him to return him to top form next year... puke. 50%

There isn't a need to apologize for an opinion, it's just not what a lot of fans were really hoping for the Twins to do. Honestly, I could see a 100% in house roster: C - Garver/Jeffers 1B - Kirilloff 2B - Polanco 3B - Miranda / Donaldson SS - Palacios UI - Arraez: LF - Refsnyder CF - Buxton RF - Kepler UO - Celestino DH - Donaldson/Larnach SP1 - Maeda SP2 - Balazovic SP3 - Ryan SP4 - Ober SP5 - Winder BP1 - Rogers BP2 - Duffey BP3 - Moran BP4 - Duran BP5 - Thielbar BP6 - Gant BP7 - Dobnak BP8 - Stashak The roster construction above would be totally reasonable for the Twins if they weren't intending on competing for the division title next year. Could it still happen? If people stayed healthy and about 5 of the 8 "iffy" folks in that roster played well or up to their absolute ceilings (like Balazovic) the roster would be potentially competitive during the regular season. That rotation would almost certainly be doomed in the playoffs though. Worst case scenario for that roster? Probably not terrible. Maybe 90 losses.

I'm also of the opinion Lewis is overrated right now. Poor pitch recognition led to a poor walk rate. Awkward, slow and huge leg kick contributed to the poor strikeout rate. Miserable defense at SS in 2019. To top it off, a complete tear of his ACL which has a risk of robbing Lewis of some of his elite speed and quickness needed for shortstop/center field. By all accounts Lewis has elite athleticism and a fantastic work ethic and attitude, but all the issues plus 2 years of no regular competitive play is a lot to overcome. Lewis isn't going to have much time to get to work next year to start the season and if he's not significantly improved by mid season at AA, he could fall out of the top 10. Martin Woods-Richardson Balazovic - 3 pitches limits his ceiling Lewis Duran - Until Duran gets some control and is able to prove his curve and change work, he's likely a pullpen arm. I'd consider him a less talented version of Graterol right now.

I was kinda wondering the same thing. Saw "Ryan" used a couple times and was thinking... does he mean "John Gant"? or was he thinking "Gant Ryan" confusing Joe Ryan with Gant? I didn't think he meant Ryan Jeffers, haha