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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I hope so. A year ago the consensus here seemed to be upper end of rotation guy. Seems kind of sudden that I find myself questioning when he’ll be ready for a relief role...any relief role. He’s 24 and counting.
  2. jkcarew
    There are a lot of living expenses that are covered by the team/organization (and hosts). It's not as bad as the salary number, in itself, would suggest. Having said that, the salaries are too low...lower than the value they drive for the organization...lower than what is fair/sustainable for players that are making personal sacrifices into their mid, even upper 20's. It's all a result of gross under-representation in the collective bargaining process.
  3. jkcarew
    Pérez being brought in meant valuable youngsters expecting their shot in the rotation were made to wait a bit longer. I’m talking about Adalberto Mejía and Fernando Romero... Really? This kind of mushes cause with effect. First, Romero was already headed to the pen with his challenges with secondary pitches and endurance. And, Perez wasn't signed because he's good or projects value to speak of. (See one year contract, team option). Perez was brought in because the young arms...especially the left-handed arms, either aren't ready (Gonsalves) or aren't trusted (Mejia)...and because the rotation is basically completely right-handed without Mejia (or someone). Perez is someone. Sometimes, an emergency stop-gap/place-holder proves to be more than that. So, we've got that going for us...
  4. jkcarew
    Generally, I don't want balls/strikes called by a machine. But, then I'll read an article on pitch-framing. If not for instant replay, I'd guess we'd have data and articles on tag-framing (2B/SS) and ball-in-glove-framing (1B) by now.
  5. jkcarew
    Look at the smile on Jacob Pearson's face! Fun.
  6. jkcarew
    I agree these rules should at least slow the extinction of the "bench bat" player. But at the cost of the LOOGY. I would have added the roster spot, capped pitchers at 13 (some challenges...consideration for two-way players, etc....but there would be ways to do it that would be fair). I didn't mind the managers having the option to deploy a LOOGY strategy...but the 3-batter requirement will impact that in a major way. I get that the idea is to reduce mid-inning pitching changes, but not sure it will reduce that many in practice. We'll see. Overall, the changes are fine, not great, IMO...but, better than no changes and letting current trends continue unabated.
  7. jkcarew
    Tyler Austin kind of having an interesting spring so far. Even before the HR yesterday...and SSS disclaimers aside...seems more balls have been put in play, (although still not getting BB's). See or hear anything indicating a demonstratively different approach? Or just showing some general signs of improvement?
  8. jkcarew
    I think of the offensive floor for a CF with elite defensive value as being Gary Pettis. (Sadly, only useful for those that remember Pettis. I'm old.) In his prime, Pettis was OPS+'ing 90-ish...or, if you prefer, was wRC+'ing mid 80's to low 90's. That's basically what Buxton was in 2016 and 2017 (Pettis more OBP/stolen bases, Buxton more SLG). Of course Pettis played 150 games/year in his prime, but a theoretical healthy Buxton doesn't have to be much better than that to add value to a contending team. I'm still reasonably confident he can be that good or better. The disappointing part of that is...if he doesn't develop offense significantly better than that, his career won't be very long. As soon as one loses the elite speed/range in CF, that level of offense is relatively easy to replace in CF, and it doesn't play in the corners.
  9. jkcarew
    The biggest problem here is that when folks shove a microphone in your face, you have to say something. And since the elephant in the room is his failure to hit, a ton of what comes out of his mouth will be easy to interpret as overly defensive (excuses) or overly offensive/aggressive (blaming others). So, you start from there...and then you mix in the fact that many (most) in the media need a story/angle...any story/angle. It's no-win. I just try to ignore as many words regarding Buxton (and Sano) as I possibly can...his words and the words of others....and pray to the gods of baseball that it will come to him.
  10. jkcarew
    Did they start throwing breaking balls to Buxton today?
  11. jkcarew
    Yeah...there's a very good chance the weather will be such that we'd rather not have Berrios (or anyone that figures prominently...or anyone, period) pitching. After the opening series, the Twins don't come back until the 12th. It's hard to figure how sneaking those 3 games in front of that in March benefits anyone.
  12. jkcarew
    I think a trade of Hicks for a catcher at the time made some sense. Personally, I don't blame that FO for trading Hicks at that time, but I do blame them for who they traded him for. Having said that, I absolutely recall those that hated the trade at the time. Hicks having too much potential to give up on at that time, or...the return was bad (to say those folds were right would be an understatement). But, I don't remember anyone worrying that we would be rushing Buxton. Buxton had already appeared with the big club during Hick's last year. Buxton was going into his age 22 year. EVERYONE wanted Buxton and they wanted Buxton right then. Everyone. Those that wanted Hick still, wanted him at a corner and/or as insurance.
  13. jkcarew
    Yep. I'd always rather win the division. But that's not the point. The point is, it means (almost) nothing to win a division crown while being a slightly above average team in a terrible division. The goal is to be a very good team...not win a division. If we played the 2018 AL post-season over 10 times, we'd see Cleveland win the pennant zero times. How many times would we see either of the wild-card teams...the Yankees or the A's win it? More than zero. That's why it would not shock me if Cleveland is considering strategies that attempt to legitimately get them to a Bos/Hou/NY level...even if some of those potential strategies present short-term risks...like losing the 2019 central division crown. Cleveland, I'm guessing, has a very good handle on the value of a central division crown in the AL as it, and their club, currently exist.
  14. jkcarew
    As of this moment in ST games... Tyler Austin 6 K's in 18 PA (33%) Nick Gordon 5 K's in 13 PA (38%) Luke Raley 8K's in 15 PA (53%) Brent Rooker 8 K's in 15 PA (53%) If he doesn't make the club, looks like Austin is a strong candidate to hit in the 2 hole at Rochester.
  15. jkcarew
    A 14th round draft pick with zero power. Career minor league OPS barely over 700. His value as a prospect was predicated on one year where nothing in his profile really changed except his BABiP spiked dramatically. Still, probably would have gotten more...but I doubt much more.
  16. jkcarew
    Division championships are meaningless. Especially in an era of 2 playoff rounds to get to the WS. More so yet in the next couple of years where you can count on 3 elite teams in the AL. Of course, you need to win one to remember how meaningless they are. Granted, you need to get good before you can get great...so, for the Twins...by all means, let's win the division. But for Cleveland, I could understand them having slightly different objectives in the short term (depending on how they evaluate themselves).
  17. jkcarew
    Three pages on Zack Granite? Looks like the TD community is rounding into shape and should be ready for the opener later this month.
  18. jkcarew
    Must have really wanted that headline to best the $300 number Machado got. (Or, more likely, the $325 that Stanton got.) Those extra three years aren't great...relatively speaking (assuming the no opt out is fact). He'll be getting $22 million in years 11, 12, and 13 of the contract. Discounting over 11 years...(just at a reasonable rate of inflation, while salaries could continue to grow faster than that)...that $22 million would be in the neighborhood of what Nelson Cruz got this year from the Twins. Meanwhile, at year 11, Harper would be two years younger than Cruz is today. Harper could sit out two years with an injury, turn in to a DH only...and still conceivably sign for more than $22 million in 2029. Not that it's every bad or wrong to go for the guarantee. But, I'm slightly surprised...this is more favorable for the team than I anticipated.
  19. jkcarew
    Jump: Jose Miranda, 2B/3B (2018: 28 | 2019: 14) -- Bat took big step forward in 2018; chance to be a plus hitter. Seth had glowing things to say about Miranda in his rankings as well. Maybe I'm imagining it, but seems to be a "Miranda's coming on" theme. But it's not in his numbers. His 2018 numbers say 'solid', or 'on-track'..not 'big step forward'. Maybe, as a 2nd-round pick with power potential people like Mayo had him ranked too low heading into last year? Obviously, numbers don't tell the entire story with a 20/21 prospect...maybe his swing is just particularly sound/consistent. I'll want to watch him more this year.
  20. jkcarew
    If you could remove 3 on the 40 man roster Do we have to stop at 3?
  21. jkcarew
    Thanks to the Yankees, we effectively bought two prospects (if you want to call Tyler Austin a prospect) for $12 million. Not good, but was looking way worse until July 30.
  22. jkcarew
    You get worse in LF so you can get better starting pitching? It would have to be a great opportunity...the kind you don’t think will come around again when Kirilloff is established. Rosario is better than Gonzalez overall as an everyday left-fielder. Gonzalez’s value is in the fact that he can be a solid league-average (Maybe abit more) offensive player as a utility guy. He’s better offensively than most utility player...players that can function defensively beyond corner OF and 1B. Which is more valuable in the era of 3-man benches.
  23. jkcarew
    There's a school of thought that would say this is 'good' for Gordon...potentially. In a scenario where Adrianza is now NOT part of a 3-man bench...you may lose him. And the long-term (injury) replacement at shortstop in 2019 becomes Gordon.
  24. jkcarew
    Rest? Match-ups? Coming off 3 consecutive years with more than 500 PA for the Astros. Their starters were decent.
  25. jkcarew
    Gonzales is a huge upgrade as a player available on a daily basis as a bench/swing player who might play one game a week at shortstop. An Adrinanza type (or Gordon) is what you'll use if a long-term injury occurs at shortstop.
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