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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    After watching Duffey today, I'd definitely put him behind Pagan/Duran and probably behind Smith/Thielbar in a confidence ranking.
  2. twins_89
    It will be interesting to see how the first couple of times through the rotation plays out. I'm somewhat expecting Ryan, Ober, Gray, Bundy, Archer, Paddack, and Winder to each throw 4-5 innings a couple of times. My hope is that when the roster size goes back down, the team settles on the 5 guys who have pitched the best and don't give Bundy/Archer a starter slot by default.
  3. twins_89
    My guess is they will see how the team plays the first few months and if the young starters (plus Bundy/Archer) aren't getting the job done the team will make Correa, Rogers, and Gray available (plus any of Sanchez, Duffey, Archer, Bundy, Smith, Urshela, or Sano that have value). I think there's a real possibility that the Twins will have the best position player (Correa), best reliever (Rogers), and one of the top starters (Gray) available at the trade deadline.
  4. twins_89
    Trading Rogers would be a tough move. The Twins are already really thin on left handed relievers and guys you would be comfortable pitching in the 8th-9th inning.
  5. twins_89
    I think a big part of the concern about Bundy/Archer comes from the poor track record of the front office when making this type of signing. When signing veteran starters who are highly questionable due to age or injury the teams failure rate has been frustratingly high.
  6. twins_89
    I'm not particularly excited about the move, though at this point there really aren't any free agent options that would be clearly better. I just hope that Archer (and Bundy) have a fairly short leash and the team doesn't give them 10-20 starts if its clear they are cooked. Ideally, I'd only want one Archer/Bundy reclamation type of signing, but since the front office whiffed on signing a reliable starter this is what we get.
  7. twins_89
    It is really weird to have spring training starting and have no idea what direction the team is going this season. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins try to compete by signing Story and trading for another good starter. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the team go into the season with a sub $100M payroll and virtually no chance at the playoffs.
  8. twins_89
    I truly have no idea what the team is trying to do. Everything other than the Gray trade points to the team going into developmental mode with a low payroll. Maybe the Gray deal was just too good to pass up. I could see a scenario where Gray gets flipped for what the front office views as better package than Petty at the trade deadline.
  9. twins_89
    Overall this move makes sense if the team is trying to do a quick rebuild. Getting off Donaldson's contract gives the team more flexibility going forward. Adding up the money in the Twins recent trades shows that the team has actually cut the payroll slightly, meaning the team is currently sitting around $40M below the payroll from recent years. The question is whether the money will be spent or if this really is a tanking/developmental year.
  10. twins_89
    As of today I don't see the Twins having enough pitching to make the playoffs. About the only way I see the playoffs happening with the current roster is if Gray has a great year, Bundy pitches a full year at his 2020 level, Ryan/Ober both take a step forward, and at least one of Balazovic/Woods-Richardson/Duran have a huge breakout year. I am very skeptical that we'll see enough of those things to get the Twins into the top 6 teams in the American league. Maybe there will be additional signings/trades to bolster the pitching staff, but unless something fairly significant happens we are not a playoff team.
  11. twins_89
    I think the value is really good for the Twins, but I'm now very confused on the team's direction. Every move (or more accurately lack of moves) up to this point has been in the direction of the team not competing this year, so this is out of step with the rest of the off-season. By itself this doesn't get the starting rotation up to playoff caliber, so I'll be curious if there is a follow-up move to add another good starter.
  12. twins_89
    I am really starting to feel that the front office is going to treat this season as a developmental year. The complete failure up to this point in putting together a starting rotation (with a payroll under $100M) seems like an indication that we will see a lot of prospects getting significant time this season. I'm expecting to see a lot of the prospects who have already made their MLB debuts (Ryan, Ober, Jax, Moran, Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, and Gordon) make the opening day roster. I would also expect to see a significant number of the Lewis, Martin, Balazovic, Richardson, Duran, Miranda, Winder, Canterino, Sands, Henriquez, Vallimont, and Strotman group fairly early as well. This is the year where we really find out how good Falvey and Levine are at scouting and developing talent (with a strong emphasis on the development of starting pitching). I won't be surprised to see Donaldson, Sano, Rogers, Bundy, Duffey, and Thielbar getting moved for prospects by the trade deadline (or even before the season starts in some cases). I even wonder if Polanco and Kepler would be available for the right offer.
  13. twins_89
    Having a 3-year stretch of 1st round picks that resulted in Stewart, Gordon, and Jay was a really painful stretch for the organization. Nobody expects every 1st round pick to work out, but whiffing on 3 consecutive top 6 picks was a disaster. The Gordon year I was high on Aaron Nola and was hoping he'd be the pick (which would have been a homerun). The Stewart/Jay years I didn't have a strong preference, so I probably can't complain too much. I guess if I had to pick one year as being the worst it would be the Gordon pick since I thought Nola was by far the best choice.
  14. twins_89
    Finding a trade for a 38 year old pitcher that has been truly terrible for 3 straight months is amazing.
  15. twins_89
    Twins up with Ty Madden still sitting there.
  16. twins_89
    It's tough to be competitive when the pitching staff gives up 28 runs in 3 games. Any remaining hope that the Twins could turn things around has to be completely gone now.
  17. twins_89
    I think they expected this to be the season that the minor league pitching pipeline started to show results, unfortunately most of the near major league ready pitching prospects have been injured. Duran, Canterino, Enlow, and Sands are currently on the IL and Balazovic started so late that he was not a realistic option up to this point. The best case scenario for the rest of the season is that 4 or 5 out of Duran, Canterino, Balazovic, Winder, Sands, and Vallimont make their debut later this year. Once we start seeing these guys in the majors we will have a better idea of how well the front office has done at identifying and developing pitching talent.
  18. twins_89
    My impression of the Twins plan coming into the season was that Happ and Shoemaker were placeholders until the Twins top pitching prospects were ready. Unfortunately Happ/Shoemaker were both terrible and the next level of mediocre depth fell apart (Dobnak, Thorpe, and Smeltzer). To make matters worse, Maeda and Pineda have had injury issues that have limited their effective innings. Adding insult to injury, the top pitching prospects have been injured (Duran and Canterino) or had a very late start with inconsistent results (Balazovic). Basically every facet of the starting pitching has collapsed this season leaving no way to salvage the rotation. I don't know that anyone could have predicted the complete meltdown on every level, but some of the issues were not surprising (Happ/Shoemaker disaster). The front office needs to put a much better plan in place for 2022 if they hope to be competitive.
  19. twins_89
    The twins front office has made a number of mistakes on the edges of the 40 man roster (Zack Littell is another example), but I'm not sure they are worse than the majority of teams in the league. The mistakes that frustrate me the most are the trades of Luis Gil and Huscar Ynoa. Trading them for Jake Cave and 1 game of Jaime Garcia were blunders that are looking pretty bad today.
  20. twins_89
    I doubt the Twins pitching staff is the worst in team history, but they are definitely in the running for having the biggest gap between expectations and results. The most frustrating part is that even though Happ, Shoemaker, Dobnak, and Colome have all been brutally bad they are still making appearances.
  21. twins_89
    It never made sense to have two left handed hitting fourth outfielders in Wade and Cave, so getting a guy who might be useful is likely a worthwhile move.
  22. twins_89
    I would definitely give Blankenhorn/Gordon the first shot at the second utility player. Even if they don't work out, it is fairly easy to find guys who can fill the role on the waiver wire. Even if Gonzalez only costs $1-2M that is still money that could be better spent elsewhere.
  23. twins_89
    I can see a 1-year deal being a good thing. Simmons age and health would make him a bit risky on a multi-year deal, plus Royce Lewis is likely going to be ready at some point this season.
  24. twins_89
    Coming into the off-season Simmons was about the only realistic position player upgrade I thought would be worthwhile, so I am extremely happy with the signing (this is infinitely better than bringing back Marwin). Now if the Twins can just add one good playoff caliber starting pitcher, the off-season will be a big success. I'm also hopeful that this is finally the year where the front offices supposed skill at drafting and developing starting pitchers results in at least one rookie starter forcing their way into the rotation.
  25. twins_89
    I find it extremely hard to believe that the Twins can't find an upgrade to Marwin. My guess is there are at least half a dozen players who could fill the same role with significantly better production while not costing all that much.
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