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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Good point on Masterson. I imagine a well-reputed pitching coach would have an impact on the signing of a struggling arm looking to rebound.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    BTW, part of the software upgrade I completed on Saturday was supposed to resolve some of these issues. Please let me know if you still have issues, particularly in Internet Explorer.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, it tells us that the Save statistic is garbage.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I doubt it matters much, as the likelihood of the free agent knowing a new team's pitching coach well enough to form an opinion is small.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Incorrectly, yes, but not necessarily inaccurate (or at least "not useless"). Defensively, most good/decent players seem to fall into the .5-1.5 win spectrum over the course of a season, well under what a good player will deliver in oWAR, which I think we can all agree is relatively accurate. That means, on average, that a player's dWAR swing will be something less than one win a season while their oWAR can easily swing from 0 to 6.0 or better. A small highlight that should be pointed out about dWAR is that the "replacement player" on defense is much better than the "replacement player" on offense so dWAR's ability to screw up WAR as a whole is limited in most cases while it still delivers a single "catch-all" stat to quickly measure a player's value. In 2014, the NL dWAR leader was Simmons at 3.9 (which I think we can all agree is absurdly high, though Simmons is an incredible defender). The AL leader in dWAR was Kinsler at 2.9. Compare that to offense where McCutchen led the NL with a 7.8 oWAR and Trout led the AL with an 8.7 oWAR. And that's why I'm skeptical of the outliers in dWAR, both good and bad. If the player slots into a dWAR around 1.0 over the course of a season, the inaccuracies of dWAR are marginalized. If that player slots into a dWAR around 3.0 while his oWAR is 2.5, then alarm bells should ring. WAR is a flawed stat but not necessarily a bad stat, especially considering the other stats we (don't) have at our disposal that are obviously better.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The same applies to Buxton though his circumstances are much different in that he lost a season to injury and hardly played at all.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    The latter, IMO. I'm sure there are very valuable guys defensively, I just don't really trust WAR to quantify those numbers. I think WAR is generally accurate, particularly in the aggregate but I don't really trust dWAR on a player-by-player basis. It's a decent guideline to estimate the defensive acumen of a player but I don't trust that it can accurately calculate a player's defense at, say, 1.2 wins a season.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much summed up my thoughts. I use WAR quite a bit but try to do so loosely... For example, a 3.0 WAR player is not necessarily worth "exactly" one win more than a 2.0 WAR player. The 3 WAR player is *probably* a better player but that's not always the case because of the influence of dWAR. I'm also extremely skeptical of the defensive outliers like Kinsler (roughly three wins with the glove). Basically, the higher percentage of a player's "worth" that comes from his dWAR, the more skeptical I am of the stat as a whole. I think it done a fine job on the offensive side of the spectrum and tries to value defensive worth with mixed results. It's not completely off-base most of the time but dWAR should be used with a grain of salt, especially for guys who derive 50%+ of their value from defense.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    That's a bad precedent to use for decision-making. Santana is an outlier and should be viewed as such (which Ryan does, as evidenced by his comments in the handbook). Vargas had recent success, though not in the weeks preceding his promotion. His 2014 MiLB OPS was .832. Rosario is an entirely different situation. He hasn't hit since the middle of 2013. That's an eon ago in prospect terms. Let him get his feet under him in the minors before promoting a guy who hasn't been able to shake off the rust since his suspension. Rosario's numbers since his 2013 promotion to AA: 2013 AA: .742 2014: A+: .682 2014 AA: .672 2014 AFL: .755 Is that a guy you really want to promote right now?
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    When he was originally promoted, Aaron Hicks had more recent success in MiLB than Rosario has had in MiLB in the past 18 months. Let's not repeat the Aaron Hicks situation.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Too much money for too many inconsistent seasons. Plus, he'd cost a prospect to acquire and the more money the Orioles eat, the better the prospect they'll demand. No thanks, pass.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Rosario is not ready for MLB. He needs to prove he can hit AA, AAA, or even AFL pitching first. He hasn't posted an OPS significantly north of .750 since the first half of 2013.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd rather see a competitive team year in and year out and watch the same players for more than two seasons.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, I think he does enough right and showed enough potential last season that he deserves to be kept around for at least the beginning of 2015. And given the continued collapse of Hicks, it's not as if he's blocking anyone at this point.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd wait until either team breaks .500 before declaring either one "better-run". The Marlins haven't made the postseason since 2003. Yeah, they won the WS that year but that's still 12 seasons ago.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    And the Marlins expect to pay at least $25m of that $325m contract before trading Stanton.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Mauer would get a one year deal for $10-12m because Mauer would only want a one-year deal after having the worst year of his career in 2014.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    As a fourth outfielder, Scafer is just fine. The problem is when you rely on someone of his ilk for more than a platoon/bench role. He has the tools to do what you need from a bench guy: he runs fast, plays acceptable defense, and can fill several roles late in the game.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, Microsoft added something to IE11 (I think the problem sprung up with 11, anyway) that buggers the RTE. It's on my list of things to fix.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    No big deal, Coors and Citi are pretty much the same thing... right?
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I get the reasoning (hence the "no full-blown panic mode" comment) but the K rate is something to watch as a potential issue going forward. Whether he's using his best pitch or not, is new to baseball, or whatever, it's something to watch.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Doing some work on the site(s) that day so usage may be spotty for a few hours.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem is that if you're the Mets, the future quickly becomes the present and you persistently find yourself lacking in decent prospects because you continually look at today's results instead of considering tomorrow's potential you're giving away. The Mets have been "in the present" for about a decade now and it has gotten them absolutely nowhere. Since 2006, the Mets have not won more than 88 games and not lost less than 70. They've been perpetually stuck in mediocrity and a lot of that is due to the fact they keep handing away picks and prospects.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Ah yeah, my mistake for propagating that error. That's why the draft pick thing didn't make sense to me. So the Mets lose their first round pick, not a second round pick. That makes it worse, not better. Giving up a 15th overall pick and $21m for two years of Cuddyer? Uh, no thank you.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not a bargain if you have to give up a pick for Cuddyer and you're a 66 win team. The Mets should be hoarding prospects and picks right now, not giving them away for stop-gap players in the twilight of their career. Sure, there's a chance Cuddy plays $21m worth of baseball over the next two years... But that shouldn't really matter to the Mets. They should care about prospects and draft picks right now.
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