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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Locking this thread. Please continue the conversation here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/16336-article-twins-extend-phil-hughes/
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy crap. Personally, I thought the prudent move was to wait one more year to extend but I'm certainly not going to complain at that price.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much this. It paid off but had it not, Moore would look extremely foolish right now. My biggest concern with Shields was never 2014, it was the attempt to gain 20+ wins in a single season and wasting 1/2 of Shields' service time. But no need to rehash that debate for the fortieth time. This is an interesting situation. It's possible that Myers is a problem player and this doesn't bode well for his future. Traded twice already and now stuck in PETCO, a park that can kill the power numbers of even elite players. Classifying him as a corner OF who hits like a CF is patently unfair. The guy slugged .478 his rookie season and .522 in the minors. In his MiLB career, his lowest SLG was .393. Is he a powerhouse? No, but given his walk rate and gap power, he's more than a CF who can't play CF.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a game of whack-a-mole. We kill five ads, autoplay ads go away for a few weeks. Then, another advertiser's autoplay ad appears on the site and the process starts over. Rinse, repeat.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Interesting. In that case, looks like nobody had a shot once the Cubs got involved. Not many players take less money to go to a team that isn't their current team, a former team, or their hometown.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. If Santana reaches those milestones, he's almost surely worth the paycheck so the option is entirely irrelevant IMO.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    While I applaud the Sox front office for going big this offseason, it is literally their only option if they want to field a competitive team. That's in stark contrast to the Twins, who have 5-6 top 100 prospects. Those prospects need roster space in the near future. Different strategies for different teams in different situations.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It should be noted. For sure. Look at CC Sabathia.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I doubt that. The Twins and Cubs aren't in terribly different positions. Bad records, a few good young players, stacked farm systems. Unless Lester has some attachment to Epstein (unlikely), he'd probably go where the money took him.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Fair enough. For some reason, I thought Hamels had five years left on his deal... Must have counted the option year.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I understand impatience. It has been a long four years. Had Buxton and Sano spent time in Minnesota this season, I'd feel somewhat differently about it... But this team isn't quite a contender yet (unless everything - and I mean everything - breaks right for them in 2015). Next offseason could be a very different story but either way, Berrios and Meyer are part of the Twins' future. Trading them away would be folly. Sure, either of them could fail but if you have both of them, chances are one of them turns into something more than a mediocre pitcher and you get six years of service for ~$20m, not $20m for a single season. Pursuing Jon Lester made more sense than trading for Cole Hamels. The price, years, and age are all pretty similar and then you get to keep all your prospects, especially the ones close to the majors who can impact the MLB team as soon as 2015.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Eh, Gibson is a pretty terrible comp to Meyer. Higher floor, lower ceiling. Gibson was a solid prospect; Meyer has the potential to be dominant. Or implode spectacularly.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Why? There isn't a single aspect of this team that is significantly better than mediocre. The rotation was horrendous again. The defense is middling; good infield, bad outfield. The offense was fifth in runs scored (easily the biggest "strength" right now). The bullpen is meh. What would lead one to believe that now is the time to go for it? It's not as if the Twins have an excellent defense and Murderer's Row jacking #dingers every third at-bat. They have several nice pieces that need to simmer for awhile and some pretty ugly holes in the roster. They're nothing close to being a dominant team in any facet of the game.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    My problem has nothing to do with the money spent on a reliever... Not directly, anyway. My issue is with the year-to-year volatility of the average reliever and elite relievers are too bloody expensive for the performance they deliver.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty much nailed my thoughts on the signing.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm just not a fan of spending money on outside bullpen help. I think the Twins can rustle up enough arms to field a competent bullpen in 2015. If Ryan wants to pursue one of his classic scrapheap moves to shore up the pen, that'd be fine with me.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd also take the Cubs. It's a tough decision that can be argued for either side if you're only looking at players but if you add in manager, market size, and payroll ceiling, it's the Cubs by a longshot.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Nick Burdi. I'm not a fan of spending money on bullpen assets, particularly when the Twins will need to find a place for May/Meyer, Milone, and later, Nick Burdi.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It's really not. I wouldn't have signed Hunter but a one year deal is rarely a "bad" deal, particularly to a guy who continues to swing a pretty potent bat. Questionable? Yeah. Not the move I'd make? Absolutely. Bad? Nah. If Hunter had been the only move this offseason, I'd be a lot more upset but it's now apparent that Ryan had his eye on adding more pitching and put his resources there instead of the outfield. I don't entirely agree with that decision but the reasoning behind it is sound.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I ignore projections because they cast players toward the mean. If you're good, Steamer projects you to decline. If you're really bad, Steamer projects you to improve (unless you're ancient and in massive decline). That's not analysis, that's hedging a bet. Yes, more good players will decline than improve and some good players will get injured and have an off year. So, technically, Steamer is "right" because in the aggregate, it technically gets more things "right" than it does "wrong" but that's a long way from "accurate".
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    My point is that people deride WAR and defensive metrics and those things actually happened. It's an attempt to quantify things that actually occurred on planet earth and were witnessed by human beings. Projections for individual players? There are hundreds of variables that cannot be accounted for and applying such an algorithm to individuals is going to miss far more often than it hits. In the aggregate, Steamer is useful because a large data set is going to somewhat balance out the quirks of individual human beings. Some will overperform, some will underperform. Based in past performance, you can probably get something resembling an approximation of useful information if applied to a group of people. But individuals? Nah. It's pointless. If your algorithm relies on a human being and their foibles as a constant, you're gonna be sorely disappointed on a regular basis.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I said Steamer projections were crap last offseason and I still think they're full of crap. Just because they got a couple of things right doesn't mean we should ignore the legion of things they got wrong. They didn't even really get Mauer right... They overestimated his injury-riddled campaign. Same for Nolasco. They drastically underestimated Hughes. Attempting to predict individual performance to the decimal point is absurd. It's akin to looking at the sky and predicting next month's weather to a tenth of a degree based on the fact that it's Tuesday and you like popsicles.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It's hard for me to do anything but roll my eyes whenever I see (Cleveland) Steamer projections for individual players.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm a bit disappointed that no one has made a joke that the Twins just paid $55m to Johan Santana.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    http://www4.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Nick+Blackburn+Minnesota+Twins+Photo+Day+Gv18Ygc6tQzl.jpg
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