I think a lot of this boils down to young teams either break out or they don't. The Cubs and Twins are rated as the youngest teams, though the Cubs are quite a bit further along in the process. Teams like the Twins tend to be rated *really* lowly until a bunch of young players break out in the same season... If it happens at all. The Twins are poised to go big at any moment but they also have a decent chance of stumbling badly because prospect development is a fickle beast. There's as good a chance the Twins win 75 games this year as they win 85, IMO. There are just too many variables on this team right now to make an accurate prediction (Gibson, May, Vargas, Santana... and that's not even throwing Buxton, Meyer, or Sano into the ring). If two of those guys suddenly turn into All-Stars, the Twins are a pretty good team in 2015... But, again, one can't bank on that happening in any particular year so until things gel, the Twins are considered far from contention going into every season.