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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I'll almost always take the intelligent monster over the idiot. At least the intelligent monster has self-preservation skills which will at least partially extend to those around them.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Listen here, clowns. You can either watch this team lose again or you can flip over to the LAD broadcast and hear Scully broadcast his last series. This isn't even a decision.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, that's an old clip... No, wait, that doesn't matter. It's still embarrassing. I think he may have been attempting to tell a joke but I'm not sure. If he was, he needs to cancel his tuition check to the Al Gore School of Comedy Delivery because holy ****, that was so out of touch and awkward it actually caused me Michael Scott level pain.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    The Cubs have the best record in baseball and they're -3 games in BaseRuns. The Red Sox have the second best recored in baseball and they're -8 games in BaseRuns. That's absurd.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    My appreciation of Jeb Bush just went from -1000 to -1.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Anyone feel like curling into the fetal position under your desk and crying? Watch this Gary Johnson video on climate change. It hurts. So much. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BxREh8vzoGo
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this is one of the few things that TD agrees on nearly 100% of the time.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Does he, though? In a seven man bullpen (much less an eight man), there's plenty of room for two guys at the bottom of the pen who specialize in throwing multiple innings. The 4-5 guys at the top can specialize in single inning appearances. That doesn't mean they never pitch more than one inning but in Tonkin's case, he's approaching 40% of his appearances being longer than a single inning.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    About Tonkin's extended use. It's an interesting thing to note but I'm not entirely convinced it means anything. Here are his combined MLB/MiLB numbers from 2013-2016. I've extracted the number of >1 IP appearances versus total appearances. 2016: 69.1 IP, 63 appearances, 23 appearances >1 IP, 37% of total appearances. 2015: 64.1 IP, 59 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 24% of total appearances. 2014: 64.0 IP, 64 appearances, 14 appearances >1 IP, 22% of total appearances. 2013: 68.1 IP, 61 appearances, 19 appearances >1 IP, 31% of total appearances. So, the number has trended upward from 2014-2016 but he also pitched nearly 1/3rd of his 2013 appearances in extended appearances (mostly in MiLB). Either way, this isn't a question we should be asking given the Twins' bullpen. If there's even a small doubt that Tonkin suffers from extended appearances, nothing would be lost by removing those appearances because, in case no one has noticed, this team is terrible at baseball and there were ample opportunities to let guys find their niche and be successful this season without overextending them into situations under which they don't/can't thrive.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a fair point but... 1. I'm not sold that Molitor will be the manager next season. That easily could have been a version of "we have utmost faith in our manager". 2. Molitor is only under contract for one more season. Nobody brings in a GM for a single season. An incoming person could say "I'll see what Molly has for a season and make a decision." It's unlikely he or she will feel the same about a GM.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I see your point - and I think a terrible FP% is usually a good indicator a player isn't polished/good at the position - but I believe it's a bit more complex than that. Some guys have a bad run of errors and it's hard to recover from a number that start abysmally low. Some guys are harshly judged or another player contributes to an error(s). Then there's the fact that if a player is super-athletic and gets to the play but fumbles it, that *could* be ruled an error, even though another guy doesn't even get leather on the ball. And that's the problem with fielding percentage. What's worse, a guy who occasionally kicks the ball but makes stellar plays at a 1:1 rate with his errors? Or the guy who almost never kicks the ball but doesn't ever get to those stellar plays? The net result could easily be zero between those two players but advanced metrics try to factor in those differences while FP% is "eh, whatever, it's the judge's call". And I'm not even bringing up how erratically errors are given/withheld in today's game. It's basically nonsensical. Some plays are required to give someone an error because a runner advanced on the play. What if no one is deserving of the error? Who gets saddled with that drop in FP%?
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    There's a slight difference between letting someone walk away for nothing versus trading a player for a high-end prospect at a position of need.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Dunno. Is it worse to airmail an IBB pitch or have it hit for an RBI single? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6YzVvtxoaY
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Huh. SSS abounds and all that but here is Buxton's isoD by month: April: 49 PAs, .052 isoD May: 4 PAs, too SSS June: 93 PAs, .030 isoD July: 66 PAs, .092 isoD August: 6 PAs, too SSS September: 77 PAs, .055 isoD Not a huge split there but Buxton has quietly put together a .070 isoD over his past 149 PAs since the beginning of July. Compare that to his 2015 season, which was 139 PAs and an .041 isoD. Hard to get a real read on those numbers but it's possible Buxton is starting to identify pitches a bit more frequently and lays off them on occasion. The strikeouts haven't changed noticeably, unfortunately.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I just don't see it. If the Twins are going to hire one of the four finalists (sans Antony), I don't see any of those people taking the job and saying "but I'll let you decide who my GM will be on day one". All four of those guys are highly respected and will likely have other POBO/GM interviews in the near future. Why would they accept a job where the owners meddle so much as to dictate their subordinates? If they just wait one more year, they will probably get another round of interviews with a different team (especially McLeod, who is one of the most sought-after front office guys in the sport). These four guys are interviewing the Twins nearly as much as the Twins are interviewing them. This isn't a typical "I'll take the job because I need it" scenario where the business has most (all) of the power. These candidates can afford to pick and choose their roles.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I am completely, unequivocally, 100% on board with this idea.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm comfortable stating that May is an upgrade over this year's mess. Whether he'll be any good is another question. The bar is ridiculously low.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Baseball fans.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm so frickin' bored at work today so I'm browsing stats and just kinda screwing around. I noticed that Brian Dozier has two pinch hit plate appearances this season. His slash line is: - / 1.000 / - / 1.000
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Too early to say. I haven't dug into how/where his singles/walks came into play but just over half of Buxton's hits have gone for extra bases since his return to Minnesota. Guys aren't going to steal a ton of bases if they're starting out on second, third, or trotting around the bases after a home run.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think this team is better in 2017 without Dozier, provided they acquire an MLB-ready piece in return. Dozier has been a 6 WAR player this season. Great. But the Twins have five starters with a negative rWAR on the season: Gibson, Duffey, Berrios, Milone, Dean. Five guys, the worst of which is Berrios at -1.8 rWAR. Yeesh. The yuck of those numbers cannot be overstated. But we're not getting rid of Berrios so let's target the next guy on the list, Tyler Duffey, at -1.5 rWAR for the season. Pick up a middling league average-ish guy for 2017 who will accumulate 2 rWAR in a season. Right there, we're +3.5 rWAR, over halfway to Dozier's 6 rWAR total (which he's unlikely to repeat anyway). Replace Dozier with Polanco and find an acceptable shortstop. Either Escobar or a glove-first guy who can scrape together 2 rWAR over a season. Now we're at 5.5 rWAR, which is probably higher than Dozier's expected 2017 WAR. I realize WAR doesn't translate directly to wins, especially when comparing pitchers and hitters. This is only an example of how easy it could be to replace Dozier and not actually get worse as a team because the pitching staff has been that bad. (and none of this includes potential improvement from a team full of under-25 players, or the added benefit of Duffey potentially turning from a disaster to an asset with a move to the bullpen)
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins need to make up ~115 runs allowed just to move to 14th place in the AL. That's .75 runs per game. It's not going to take a catcher, it's going to take four decent rotation pieces (currently have one) and at least two strong bullpen pieces (currently have zero). Five pitchers needed and even then, success is far from guaranteed. That's just to move from "omg legendarily horrible" to "eh, still pretty bad, near the bottom of the league". To be considered even average, the Twins pitching staff needs to allow one full run fewer per game. Think about that for a moment. One run fewer. Per game.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't believe the offense will be just as good without Dozier but the real question is "what leads to more wins?" 1. Dozier/Polanco + Pitching Scrub X 2. Escobar/Polanco + League Average Pitcher with Upside And that's not even bringing into the discussion where Dozier is only here for two more seasons and it's unlikely the Twins will be competitive in at least one of those seasons. The idea is that whatever pitcher is acquired doesn't leave after the 2018 season and will be under team control through at least the 2020 season. If the Twins needed only one or two pieces to scratch their way into even being a pretender, keeping Dozier might be an okay move... But the Twins don't need a piece or two. They need an entire rotation, most of a bullpen, and a damned catcher, to boot.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Only because they traded Myers while he was amidst an injury streak. And Odorizzi has worked out very well for them. Since the trade, Odorizzi has been worth close to 8 rWAR and Myers has been worth a little over 5 rWAR, despite the injuries. Myers hasn't been a star but he's been a solid regular when he isn't injured (worth a bit more than 3 rWAR in 2016, his first full non-injury season). Combined, the two have been paid roughly $3.5m during that time.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    The greatest sports announcer of all time and, in my opinion, it's not a close contest.
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