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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    It's entirely possible, for sure. The Twins also have a handful of September games against teams who are likely playing AAAA chaff or prospects in September. They close out the season against the Royals, who will almost surely be on full-blown autopilot by that point, resting their best players in preparation for the postseason.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's the best part of the WC format. A WC winner shouldn't be on equal footing to a division champion. If they wanted an advantage, they should have won the division. Baseball is a far more level playing field than any other sport. Home field advantage in the playoffs isn't as significant as it is in other sports, as the best teams in baseball only win 60% of their games, maybe 70% of their home games. Giving those better teams a leg up for winning the division helps the best teams advance in the postseason. I think that's a good thing.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree making the division more important relative to the WC is a good goal but I disagree with the solution.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    It's my opinion the Twins really need 2 of 3 in this series. Teams receive limited opportunities against WC teams outside the division. The Twins need to do all they can with those limited opportunities... And they've done a pretty good job of it lately, at least against the teams they have a chance of catching. Two of three against the Rangers. Four of four against the Orioles. The Twins were never going to catch the Yankees or Jays so I find those series less important, though it would have been nice to accumulate at least one win against those clubs. Argh.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    There's not even a little bit of doubt about that. It's far easier to sneak a single win against a superior team than it is to beat them three out of five times. That's why I kinda hate the current WC format.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I understand and appreciate that, but everybody else in the bullpen seems to do fine without having a dedicated role. I don't see why the closer would be any different. I wouldn't use the "closer" in any inning before the eighth on a regular basis but the closer role should be more flexible than it is today. Sometimes, that eighth inning is more crucial than the ninth and the best guy should be out there to handle that situation.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    It'd be better if Molitor had the gumption to remove the closer title from the bullpen entirely and use the pitcher best suited to get a guy out at a crucial time, no matter the inning.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    A good reliever pitches 70 innings. A good starter pitches 210 innings. That's why starters have more inherent value. They spend more time on the field. If May's ceiling was middle of the rotation starter - and let's not diminish that role, it's really valuable to a team - I'd have fewer issues moving him to the pen... but May has looked better than that this season. He could be a fringe #2, very good #3 for several years. A good #2/3 is going to bring 2-4 wins to the team per season... Only a handful of relievers can match that in 70 innings and Trevor May isn't one of them.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    That's why I don't like fWAR for pitchers, particularly ones like Nolasco, whose real-world results underperform his FIP/xFIP every. frickin'. year. Nolasco has pitched 1500 MLB innings and his FIP/xFIP are .7 runs under his career ERA. At that point, it's not statistical noise... FIP/xFIP are not properly evaluating Nolasco's talent level.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, while we were all gnashing our teeth over the pen, it's possible it turned into an acceptable pitching unit... Though obviously, it would have been nice to see this happen in mid-July when the Twins were well over .500. I don't have many concerns about the pen any more. I think it'll be good enough to get the job done, though I don't have a lot of faith in it becoming above average any time soon.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    100% agreed. It makes no sense for Sano to take a ten year deal. If he hits FA, he'll want to do it at 29/30, not 32/33.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, exactly. Maybe it's not too late but the Twins are fighting to catch the remaining playoff spot (the second WC spot). A month ago, they owned the first WC spot.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. It's a fine move but it irritates me Ryan didn't start patching the pen in early July.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I hear stuff like this about Vielma but is he really that much better than Gordon? I'm not arguing, it's an honest question.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Last night was a perfect opportunity to ignore a stat line and test a young pitcher's mettle by sending him into the eighth in a blowout game. Duffey scuffled a bit and that's okay. Hopefully he learned from the experience.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Reply hazy, try again later. That's my take on Duffey right now. His MiLB numbers were decent but far from eye-popping. He was drafted out of college but never thrived at missing bats. He has shown to be very good at preventing the walk, which is necessary from a college guy who doesn't have overpowering stuff. In short, it's hard to say. Right now, his only plus pitch is that nasty curve. The rest of his stuff is pretty pedestrian (but under the tutelage of Allen, one can hope that change will improve). Will hitters adjust and spot the curve coming out of his hand as film is compiled on Tyler? Only time will tell, I suppose.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    A fair point. I know I kick myself for sitting on money for too long and investing later than I should have invested.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    It's only two starts but Duffey has already exceeded my admittedly low expectations by a wide margin. I hope he continues to prove me wrong(ish). I was never really down on Duffey, I simply didn't care and didn't expect much from him.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    True. I suppose there is a possibility of that, though I think it's unlikely. Given Sano's young age, he can take the financial security today and still hit the free agent market as a 29/30 year old. That's kind of the best of both worlds for him.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy ****. I just logged into MLB.tv. LOL.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Ultimately, I don't think it matters. After the absolute steal the Rays got with Longoria, I don't see players giving huge discounts to sign super-early. If Sano signs today, I don't think it's a huge savings over signing him 14 months from now. Maybe $5-10m. Spread out over 5+ years, that's not enough to get worked up about. But I'll be disappointed if the Twins haven't approached Sano by November of 2016 if he continues to produce the way he has thus far.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    True, but I'd like to see the Twins make a showing by staying ahead of Baltimore and Tampa, two equally flawed teams.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Rainy days always get me down. (and Mondays)
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    The problem with your analysis is that you're not taking into account three things, all revolving around A-Rod: 1. He was 25 years old when he became a free agent, which is absurdly young. 2. He was nearly a shoe-in for the HoF at age 25. He was that good. Free agents of his ability come around maybe once a decade and almost never at his age. 3. The Rangers went absolutely insane and bid against themselves during negotiations. They had the top two or three offers on the table IIRC. As Markos pointed out, remove A-Rod's special circumstances and you have a much more linear upward graph for the elite players in baseball. To imagine the 2000 A-Rod situation and compare it to a theoretical situation, pretend it's 2017 and Mike Trout is a free agent. He's 25 years old and is coming off yet another 8-9 WAR season. Can you imagine a situation where he doesn't get a 10 year, $350m+ deal in that situation? Stanton got $325m and he's not even close to Trout in ability. Kershaw has a contract that bought out his free agency years at roughly $35m AAV and he's a friggin' pitcher. That was the A-Rod situation in 2000. A-Rod was an outlier that should be removed entirely because he screws up the entire curve, just as this hypothetical Trout would in 2017.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's because elite position players stopped hitting the market, not due to any reluctance in offering a $30m a year contract. It's hard to offer Mike Trout a $300m deal when the Mike Trouts of the world get locked up for 8+ years the moment they hit the show. A-Rod was 25 when he signed that monster deal with the Rangers. We simply do not see players of his calibre hit the free agent market at age 25 anymore. Hell, we rarely see them hit the market at age 28 anymore. Who's the best player to switch teams in a monster deal in the past few years? Cano? Sure, he's an elite player but he was 32 years old and he's elite, not legendary... A-Rod was a legendary-type player and was worth ~20 WAR over Cano during their first ten seasons in MLB.
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