Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Article: Twins To Sign DH Logan Morrison
Brock Beauchamp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Huh, didn't see this coming but it's a good deal, for sure. I don't know that I would have targeted a LHB DH type but at that price, it's hard to say anything negative. -
Article: Lance Lynn to the Twins?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Andrew Thares's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think the Twins managed to swipe Odorizzi for the price they did because no one would agree to the Rays' price for Archer. I think that deal is as good as dead unless a team ponies up a king's ransom for the guy. And I hope that isn't the Twins. I like Archer - I like him a lot - but the Twins gave the Rays quite a bit of salary relief with Odorizzi and I think that only solidifies Tampa's position to hold on to Archer if they can't get the right deal (in other words, a massive prospect haul). The Twins walked away with something of a steal in the Odorizzi trade. Consider yourself lucky and move on.- 110 replies
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- lance lynn
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Article: Backstop Battery Becoming an Asset
Brock Beauchamp replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Probably not anymore but he had 2-3 good seasons left in him when he was concussed and probably another 1-2 partial seasons afterward.- 9 replies
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- minnesota twins
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I wasn't that high on him at the draft but after listening to him speak and hearing about his work ethic, I'm getting a Berrios feel from him.
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It’s just differing pitcher definitions, I think. I tend to believe a #3 should be solidly above league average whereas a #4 is somewhere around average.
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I'm not a huge believer in Mejia either but the guy approached a league average ERA and FIP in his rookie season while fighting a couple of minor injuries. He has modest upside, enough to make me want to see him get another shot at a starting role. I don't think he settles any higher than a #4 or a kinda bad #3 but that's valuable on this team.
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Yeah, I agree, my point is more that guys tend to perform better and more consistently when they're healthy. Given that Mejia was pretty close to the line between "kinda bad and mediocre" last season, a healthier season could be what puts him into the 2-2.5 WAR range in 2018 and cements him as a rotation staple, albeit closer to the back than the front.
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Yeah... the Twins have a lot riding on Gibson stabilizing and Mejia taking a step forward. Thankfully, in the case of Mejia, the step forward can be rather small and he's suddenly a decent pitcher. Just keeping him on the field for 25+ starts would be a big step in the right direction.
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I'm not saying Lewis should be off the table, I'm only saying he should be off the table right now. Because I strongly feel that while he's a 25-ish prospect right now, he'll be a top ten guy by season's end. Which means he can centerpiece a deal for basically any pitcher on the market and other teams can't beat the offer. Right now, that's not the case. You'll be tossing in other quality prospects to match other teams, likely good prospects with real upside like Thorpe or Gonsalves.
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Oh, I'm not saying you are, only that it's close to impossible to get a very good starting pitcher without him being included in the deal. Here's hoping the Twins have a couple of prospects step forward in the coming years so that holes can be filled with legitimately above average players in trade.
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Yes, and I hope the Twins do the same at some point in the next 2-3 seasons. I'm not against trading prospects at all, I'm just not willing to give up on Lewis right this moment, as I think his stock is going to skyrocket in the near future. If you're bullish on a prospect, you don't trade him in the present. You either wait for his value to rise and get more in return for him or you keep him and reap the rewards of having a good player.
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I'll also let it drop but it's not that it's impossible to get good players, it's just a lot harder when you don't have a "gimme" pick at the top and then the ability to draft intelligently down the board. You only have the option to draft intelligently down the board and the hit rate between good and bad teams on those picks is a pretty small gap (but that gap makes all the difference in the world when you nail the pick on a guy down the board every other draft or so).
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Personally, I'm not terribly concerned about Odorizzi's BABIP. Will it raise this season? Almost certainly. But we're talking about a guy who fought injury issues most of the season and saw his home run rate spike... but his walk rate also spiked. That tells me there's a good chance he lost his feel for the zone due to nagging injury, a guy who might be having trouble finishing his delivery and therefore leaving an extreme number of balls up in the zone. Even if the BABIP jumps back up, as it probably will, a healthy Odorizzi should be able to counter that with a normalized walk and home run rate.
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Like all other teams, the Twins almost certainly had a BPA on their board. You trust your scouts and analytics and take the guy they tell you to take. Look at Houston. Their highest-drafted starting pitcher was taken in the supplemental round. If you draft well, you draft well. And I think a big part of that is always taking the BPA. After all, Houston was pretty widely criticized for their Correa pick, yet they managed to nail a pretty good starter in the supplemental round as well. That seemed to turn out okay because the Houston front office was smarter than a bunch of analysts and forum dweebs.
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I'm not sure what you're getting at here... doesn't pretty much every MLB front office agree that drafting for need is a terrible idea? Some practice it better than others, but I've never heard a front office stray from that line of thinking publicly. If the Twins liked Lewis best, they should have drafted Lewis. It's that simple, really. Worry about filling other positions further down the draft because, chances are, you'll think a pitcher is the BPA somewhere in your first 2-3 picks. And the Twins did just that.
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I'm also expecting a four, will be very happy if he bounces back to being a decent three.
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Except the original post made no clarification if ERA or FIP was being used to say "the same". So let's say both are the same. That means Odorizzi will again post a low 4s ERA, making him much better than everyone except Berrios and Santana.
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Ah, I see, you're saying that his FIP will be the same. Got it. I disagree on that front but under that definition, Odorizzi is not much of an upgrade.
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Considering the drop off after Santana and Berrios, it should be.
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I see your point and I don't think it's a big issue. I guess you could summarize my point more succinctly this way: With three better shortstop prospects in the system, two "chasing" Palacios, it makes sense to move him and clear the way for guys you more regard more highly. On that note, how weird is it to talk about shortstop as a position of strength? I've been a Twins fan a little over 30 years and it hasn't happened during that time.
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Izzy Odo Jackey, esquire.
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Also, we should note that it's going to become increasingly difficult to keep all those SS prospects at the correct level for their development while also staying at short. Palacios finished the season in Ft Myers but needs more time there. Lewis, if all goes according to plan, will likely end 2018 in Ft Myers. Javier is a wild card, as he has hit well and is now at the age where promotions can come fast and furious. In front of all of them, you have Gordon in Rochester and Polanco in Minnesota. And you don't want to move a guy off short if at all possible. It made sense to give up a guy like Palacios who appears to be on an upward trajectory because you don't want to run into the issue of deciding to move either move Palacios to second or stunt Lewis' advancement through the system.
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Yeah, any gains from the Twins OF will be minimal. He might gain a little from improved corner play but given Rosario's bizarre defensive regression, hard to say. On the upside, Odorizzi had injury issues last season and he starting pitching up in the zone to an even more extreme degree. Minus back problems and adding a refinement of his approach by a new coaching staff and front office, it's not hard to see a potential rebound in there. That doesn't mean it will happen, though. It's not as if the Rays org is full of morons, but it's easy for one guy to lose his approach and mess up in a season before the problem gets fixed.
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Interesting. BP has him as a plus defender.
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Ditto. I’ve always read the question is his bat, not his glove.
