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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    There are certainly doubts about Ohtani's ability to hit MLB pitching but Nishioka comparisons should be tossed out the window. Nishioka was a slap hitter who played in a league where artificial turf is common. Nishioka came to the US after his age 25 season. Nishioka never hit for power. Nishioka was coming off a season where he OPSed .080 higher than any previous season. I don't see a lot to compare between the two, any more than I'd judge Buxton's ceiling based on Ben Revere's career because they're both black and play centerfield.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I can't support trading Santana. He's the type of pitcher you can write 175+ IP in permanent ink on Opening Day. Sure, he's getting older and might regress but I don't care. $13m for 175 IP of 100 ERA+, I'll take it on this team every time. I don't care about 2019's salary right now, I want to see the Twins at least make the ALDS and Santana helps them reach that goal. If you need to trade Santana to convince the Pohlads to take on Darvish, it's time to fire up Excel and show how much money they'll make with an 88-90 win season and 5-7 postseason games, never mind how that sets them up for 2019 sans Mauer and a growing season ticket base. It's time to spend money on this team. Maybe not Darvish money but legit starting pitcher money.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    There are so many factors here - many of which we don't know - that I don't put the Twins above or below most teams (though I believe New York has an advantage over everyone else). The Twins have a lot going for them: 1. Lots of cap space to give him $3m+ 2. One of the youngest and most promising teams in baseball 3. Room to DH Ohtani and a pitching staff bad enough that he'll get plenty of opportunities 4. Great facilities 5. New front office with a forward-thinking mindset But, hey, it's still Minnesota. That in itself may be a deal-breaker to someone with aspirations of New York or Los Angeles.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Is there any timeline on a decision? I haven't seen anything.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    An interesting aspect of this deal is that if you're confident Darvish brings you Ohtani, it makes all the sense in the world to wildly overpay for Darvish, up to as much as $200m. Yu could see the market for his services go insanely out of proportion thanks to Ohtani. Dropping an extra $40m on Darvish is a no-brainer if it locks you into Ohtani at $500k for several seasons.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, this is good for everyone involved. That frees up Eduardo Escobar money (well, close to it) for the Twins next season.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    I mean, probably. My primary question is whether the organization is so down on him that they'll take anything for him just to move on.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Same here, but I put Stewart's chances of sticking on a 25-man roster for a full season very low. Like Which raises the next question: does the new front office like Stewart enough to take him back or would they work out a deal with the claiming team?
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I should slightly rephrase: I want to sell high and buy again somewhat low. I don't expect to necessarily get the stocks back for less than I sold them for, but that'd be nice. It's also probably unreasonable to expect it. I'd be thrilled to buy back a bunch of them at the same price or even a touch higher, allowing myself to do something else with the money for 3-5 years.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, I had zero expectation of timing this perfectly. My primary goal is to get out high and get back in lower. The degree in which that happens will determine the level of success but it's a pretty reasonable goal to pursue, IMO.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I definitely have a plan, I just needed some financial security while raising a child so I paid off the mortgage and dropped my stock portfolio. My wife is still contributing to her 401k and we'll raise her percentage in the next calendar year. Ultimately, I expect the market to sag in the coming years and I plan to have at least $10k to jump back in when it happens. Tech stocks (my forte) are so completely off the rails in P/E that they'll HAVE to stabilize at some point, probably even drop (most of them, anyway). That's when I plan to re-enter the market.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't entirely disagree with your point but there are a few differences: 1. Catchers tend to exist at a later age. There are few good catchers that have 40-man concerns at age 21 and those that do have concerns tend to get protected because of the positional scarcity (if they're not a good catcher, they can almost be put into the 1B category). 2. Diaz isn't going to be drafted because he'll help the team in 2018, he'll be drafted because some team out there might think he can help in 2020. If some team thinks they can stomach a useless roster spot for 162 games, Diaz isn't a bad route to go.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    On the stock front, I'm quite happy I sold my $50k and paid off my house. Almost all my stocks stayed somewhat flat for over two months so no worries there. But the one stock I debated holding on to, Square, has blown the **** up. I should have sold my wife's Medtronic instead of that but she has some kind of weird emotional bond with that stock and I didn't have the energy to fight over it. I mean, ****. Square is over 4x what I paid for it.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    You lost me in relevant roster conversation at "Padres". But in all seriousness, that extra non-DH roster spot allows NL teams to have a flexibility that AL teams simply cannot afford over the course of a season.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, you have a few different situations there: 1. Maddon coaches in the NL, which doesn't have a DH occupying a roster spot. It makes more sense to use a third catcher in that league, particularly if you have a catcher (or two) who can hit (even in a split situation). Pinch-hitting is such a big thing in the National League game and your best catcher (who probably isn't inept with the stick) sits 33% of the time, leaving him open for pinch-hitting duties in the right situation. But you don't want to pinch-hit your primary catcher (or backup catcher) on a roster with two catchers. 2. Girardi is talking about a rule change to allow him to carry a third catcher on the (kinda sorta inactive) roster. That's quite a bit different, isn't it? 3. The postseason is an entirely different beast, one that plays more by NL rules than AL rules in that "every position can be replaced at any moment if the need is there". When you only need to carry nine pitchers on the roster, carrying a third catcher is a pretty easy decision because if it's the eighth inning and your catcher is due up with a runner on base, you're sure as hell gonna pinch-hit for that dude unless he's Joe Mauer or someone of his ilk.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Both can be true. He can be a good prospect but also offer so little defensively and has such little experience that no team can afford to keep him on a roster for 162 games. With that said, Diaz isn't a great prospect but he is an intriguing one; a guy that needs to cook a little longer to see how he grows into being a hitter. IIRC, the guy just turned 21 a few weeks ago.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought it was for book-keeping purposes, not actual payout. Again, really hazy memory here. I could easily be wrong.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I thought I read somewhere the Twins deferred the posting fee over the length of the contract but my memory is pretty dodgy nowadays.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm fascinated by the Diaz decision. I get it, and I like the moxie of it, but it's a dangerous move. On the other hand, I can't imagine there's a team out there so willing to tank the season that they'll use a 25-man spot on a guy with no positional flexibility and hasn't hit above A ball. I suspect someone will try to pick him up but I don't think he'll make it an entire season on a 25-man roster.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it has everything to do with proximity to the MLB team and virtually nothing to do with future ceiling. You keep the likes of Slegers and Boshers around because your commitment to them is low. If something better comes along, you let them go and pick up a better player. In short, there's nothing to be lost by keeping them around for awhile longer but if you're committing to someone like Rosario, you're planning to let him occupy 40-man roster space for a couple of seasons before he even pitches a game in Minnesota. As for guys like Burdi, I suspect the organization either has no faith in their ability to pitch and/or stay healthy or they're rolling the dice, expecting teams to pass on an oft-injured arm (or to pick him up and then return him to the Twins later in 2018). Either result allows the Twins to kick the can down the road on the player for another season and add them to the 40-man when he looks ready to pitch in Minnesota.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That's not an underestimation, that's a front office trying to do what's best for a player and the coaching staff stepping in to say "hold up, we're working on something, let it play out". Isn't that how things are supposed to work?
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I absolutely agree with the bolded. It would have made the latter unnecessary, too. At least it would have made a "soft add" unnecessary. The Twins would likely have been in the driver's seat for the second Wild Card (maybe even the first Wild Card) had they picked up a quality reliever, which would only have set them back $8m a season for 2-3 seasons.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, there was a ton of concern and discussion about Nishioka's ability to play in MLB at all, much less at short. You can look at the year preceding his move to MLB and say he was a great player but you're ignoring how much better he was in that single season than he was previously in his career.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. Most of the changes they’ve made are either hard to quantify (coaching changes/additions) or won’t impact the MLB team for years (the draft).
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm sure they have final yay/nay input but I haven't seen any evidence they really get involved with contractual matters. They better not if they want to field a winning baseball team. Leave the roster decisions to the people who know how to build rosters. Of course, if there's a PR conflict of some kind, then maybe you get involved but that's not the case here. Anyway, I'd put the Twins chances of signing Darvish very low but I don't think the Pohlads will be the people making that decision. It'll likely come from Falvey and Levine, as it should. But, for all we know, they have zero interest in actually signing Darvish. We really have no baseline for how those two plan to operate a baseball franchise. We can evaluate their Cleveland/Texas moves but even then, we don't know which decisions were theirs and which came from their bosses.
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