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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. My quick and dirty rule is that if it’s still early enough for a player to have just one monster game (3-4, 2B, HR, BB) and normalize his stats overnight, it’s too damned early to worry about his early season performance.
  2. Yes, everyone plays in the same weather but not all guys play the same in cold weather. Just ask Dallas Keuchel. We're seeing crazy (mostly of the bad variety) performances on a near-nightly basis. Yeah, it's disappointing that Rosario isn't playing better... but lots of guys are all over the place. Some are getting away with it (Odorizzi), some are not. Wake me when the weather warms and these players shake off the rust. Then we'll be able to accurately evaluate where they're going as a player. Eleven months ago, there were posters on this forum who literally wanted to see Rosario waived from the team. How did those hot takes turn out after all the dust had settled?
  3. The Twins have played most of their games in temps below 40 degrees, we’re nine games into the season, and the team is 5-4. Pump the brakes. There’s a lot of season left to play and right now, it’s impossible to separate who struggles in the cold, who is just off to a slow start, and who we should be worried about.
  4. They’ve had it listed that way for ages and it’s wrong.
  5. Oh, I'm not saying anyone else needs to share my viewpoint. I'm only saying it's early in a season with some legendarily awful weather. I'm going to give pretty much everyone a pass for these first couple of weeks.
  6. Rosario sure had a couple of plays that looked ugly but in cold weather with wind (at least there was a fair amount at my house a few miles away), I'm not going to get too down on him. And in a 0-0 game where the runner scores with a hit, I'm not going to beat him up for going after that ball and then realizing he couldn't catch it and trying to defensively block it from going for extra bases (he failed, of course). All in all, Rosario didn't really change the game defensively. If the Twins don't score, they can't win. He had a pretty bad game but so did several of his teammates.
  7. Castro turns 31 in a few weeks. He's not going to get better offensively. But that doesn't diminish the value he brings to the team. The Twins badly needed a solution at catcher and he delivers. Castro isn't great with the bat but he's good enough... and his glove brings enough to the table that overall, he's a player you want starting for your team unless you have one of 2-3 elite catchers that exist in baseball at any given moment.
  8. Eh, China has a ton of leverage here. Their US exports are only a small percentage of their total GDP. Never mind that China is a large reason why the US debt isn't *really* an issue, and Trump (and frankly, his idiotic tax plan) doubled down on that this year. China, unlike the US, is monolithic. Their government can literally dictate anything that happens within their borders: whether workers are paid, how much they're paid, where their banks lend money and to whom, how pretty much anything is handled. That's a massive leverage point for them when it comes to negotiations. Trump is likely playing a losing hand here, one that may net mild rewards with China (simply out of irritation) but will lose considerable traction with the rest of the world.
  9. Just wait until you get to the second season. It’s amazing. So smart and creative.
  10. I do the same so it’s something I notice because it’s an oddity. The only player of note who throws left and hits right that I know of was Rickey Henderson.
  11. Jamie, you continue to impress with these pieces. Really nice work.
  12. Wait, what? Why!?!!? Let the players have their “thing”, particularly when it has personal significance.
  13. So what you're saying is that the ball approached the plate and things happened.
  14. How did Gibson *really* look today? I listened on the radio but won’t watch the game until tomorrow. It sounded like he was struggling a bit but mostly ran into a string of bad BABIP luck.
  15. Oh, I definitely believe that contract was ill-advised. I'd probably offer Dozier something along the lines of a 3/$60m contract but would hesitate to go longer than that unless he took less per season.
  16. The point is that everyone is a lot better in Coors, which makes the number misleading. If you adjust for park in any way, Blackmon's numbers are a lot closer to Dozier. Past three seasons: Dozier oWAR: 3.2, 6.0, 4.9 Blackmon oWAR: 3.2, 4.8, 6.5 Dozier OPS+: 104, 134, 126 Blackmon OPS+: 102, 130, 141 Those players don't look terribly different from one another, do they? Everyone here understands the Coors Field effect, right? Surely you don't all look at a +.450 OPS home/road split and say to yourselves "yeah, that's legit".
  17. This is why you never use basic rate stats for players who play in Colorado. Blackmon career home OPS: .972 Blackmon career road OPS: .750 Dozier career home OPS: .802 Dozier career road OPS: .765 Blackmon 2017 home OPS: 1.239 Blackmon 2017 road OPS: .784 Dozier 2017 home OPS: .916 Dozier 2017 road OPS: .800 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueZ6tvqhk8U
  18. Yeah, I think this contract has "mini Jacoby Ellsbury" written all over it. And I actually laughed out loud at that contract when it was given.
  19. I see this being said on the forums somewhat regularly but what on earth makes people think this would have been the case? When Dozier was just emerging as a star player, he turned down a lot of guaranteed money by refusing to sign off even one of his free agent seasons (probably $15m-ish a season for one or two seasons). And now people believe that after he established himself and came closer to huge guaranteed money in free agency, he was suddenly willing to sell off just two of his free agent seasons? It doesn't make sense at all. Sure, if the Twins approached Dozier two years ago and offered him $15-18m per season for four seasons of free agency, he probably signs at the dotted line... but that deal isn't much different than what he'll ask for this offseason so there isn't anything to be gained.
  20. Yeah... they're close to the same player (Dozier has ~600 more PAs, about 5 more fWAR). Oh, except Dozier is a year younger. Honestly, I don't get the Rockies making this deal but that's not unusual; I don't understand loads of things the Rockies do.
  21. If anyone out there actually believed Lynn was a 1 or 2... *blank stare*
  22. I've been saying this for awhile now (which I why I sold) but I think we're in for a bumpy ride. Trump isn't helping things with his persistent trade war talk but I think stocks, tech stocks in particular, are primed to retract in a big way the first time we see a flat quarter or two (which is inevitable after the ~8 years of growth we've seen). Way too many stocks out there are obscenely over-leveraged.
  23. Hughes may have control issues but his biggest problem is the loss of 2mph from his fastball after the injury (a drop from consistently 92mph to consistently 89-90mph). It's not really surprising if you see control issues after that point, as you have to pitch around almost every hitter you face and any hitter in MLB has no issues hitting a 90mph fastball. Lynn has sat 91-93mph every season of his career and that's where he sat yesterday as well. Given the guy's abbreviated spring and pitching in quite cold weather yesterday, it's too early to even suggest there's anything different about the guy that indicates he won't pitch somewhere near his career norms.
  24. Lynn has mentioned he likes the cold but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t having grip problems out there yesterday. Overall, a disappointing start in a really boring game but I’m not too worried about it yet.
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