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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    I prefer the idea of dual closers or not using your best arm in the closer role most of the time. The best possible situation is to have a dominant lefty and a dominant righty and alternate them based on need. That will often give you really solid coverage of both the eighth and ninth innings, which significantly improves chance of victory. An acceptable alternative is to only use your best arms if the deficit is one run, relying more on your secondary bullpen pieces if the lead is two runs or greater. I don't believe in dedicating one guy to all save situations. It's too big of a waste of your most talented reliever, sending him into games with a 2+ run lead just because it's the ninth inning. Using this tool, it appears that if the road team is down two runs going into the ninth, they have a 12.5% chance of scoring 2+ runs and a 5.5% chance of scoring 3+ runs. https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#V.2.9.0.1.0.0 Maybe, depending on the team and the order of hitters coming to the plate, I'd consider using my best reliever with a two run lead. I'd almost never use that reliever with a three run lead. It's likely he'd be more valuable in the seventh inning tomorrow night than the ninth inning tonight.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I think it's pretty safe to say they did not do this.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, that's definitely possible but two years before the 139 ERA+ season, he had a 176 ERA+, the best in the league. People have this weird notion Clemens was falling off a cliff in Boston but that simply isn't the case. He had one mediocre season, one good season, and literally every other season he was 130 ERA+ or higher.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Clemens' final year in Boston he had a 139 ERA+, which was tenth best in MLB. Reports of his demise with the Red Sox may have been a little premature.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Absolutely. While I gave them a lot of slack due to covid and then mass injuries, 2022 is the year the farm needs to start producing arms. They’re out of excuses.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Right now I’m either middle ground or IDK. I’ve been super unimpressed with the past 8-10 months but will let the 2022 season play out before declaring an opinion. Maybe their pitching pipeline is about to explode and all of this will make sense. I don’t think that will happen but would be happy to be wrong.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really disagree with this but honestly, I don't know what to expect from the pitching staff, particularly in the second half of 2022. It could be an unmitigated disaster OR we could see the likes of Balazovic, Woods-Richardson, or any number of guys in the high minors come up and be league average or better. The inverse of that is Ryan and Ober were mirages in 2021 and the pitching staff spends most of the season with five Andrew Albers in it. The potential variance of this pitching staff is enormous due to the weird circumstances of the past 24 months. We simply haven't seen any of these guys long enough to have any kind of read on their potential going into 2022. A bunch of these young guys could be on the cusp of greatness or a bunch of them could be six weeks from flaming out of baseball. *shrugs*
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    The Mets make a lot of sense because it appears Cohen is playing with Monopoly money right now.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    The thing is that we have actual numbers to verify the accuracy of statements of this kind and by pretty much every metric you can dig up, Sano was a more valuable player than Simmons in 2021. Yeah, Simmons was a good defender but was 25 runs below replacement level with the bat. That's absurd. Accepting that Simmons was a really bad player in 2021 should be automatic to this discussion. The question is whether his bat will rebound in 2022, not whether he was terrible in 2021 (he was).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Dobnak isn't "at best" a AAAA pitcher but he does have somewhat limited upside and it's dangerous to start a season with him in the rotation. I didn't say I wanted him there, I said I think he'll be there. I'd be far more comfortable with Dobnak in the #6 spot until/if he shows 2019 wasn't an aberration.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Lewis will absolutely need time in the minors. His ability to stick at short was questionable *before* he destroyed his knee. And that's not even mentioning his offensive ability after not playing baseball much in the past 2+ years.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I have no idea who these people are but I have already formed many opinions about them being hired as coaches.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I think Dobnak will be in the opening day rotation. I'm not sure how I feel about that being the case, but I suspect it will happen (I'm not as down on Dobnak as many others here).
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    And let's not forget that it was the OWNERS who kept offering the *same deal* over and over again in 2020 and it was the owners that could have started the season 6-8 weeks earlier than they did and it was the owners that created the abomination of a 2020 season for no reason other than it cost them less money to literally stop baseball from happening for as long as possible. The players had no control over what the owners did in 2020, they could only say "no" to proposals that changed the CBA. Glorifying the owners in any way, shape, or form baffles me.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Agreed 100%. I'm not excusing them of anything, just outlining a possible reason why this happened the way it did.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the problem was two-fold: 1. This front office, for good or bad, are loathe to hand out $100m+ contracts to free agents unless the stars align in a way they find perfect, or at least very favorable to them. 2. While sorting out the Buxton extension - which in fairness, was quite complicated - they were caught with their pants down as the rest of baseball suddenly kicked into overdrive on a level I've never seen in an offseason before. That doesn't make their failure to sign a player okay and they absolutely should have read the tea leaves more accurately but I think that's part of the reason they clamored to pick up the scraps of Bundy just moments before the lockout went into place. They expected the market to fall to them after the lockout and instead the market packed its bags and left for Dallas before the lockout even happened.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    The first priority HAS to be the acquisition of an acceptable, if not good, starting pitcher. At minimum, Pineda or better The second priority is a live human being capable of playing shortstop.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Anyone in this topic is free to state they believe Simmons should be retained due to his stance on vaccinations, which is the opposite of what has been said. I honestly don't understand what you're getting at here, as people are stating their opinions for ditching/retaining Simmons' services for a variety of reasons. If the conversation becomes a debate about the politicization of vaccinations and an argument about whether they're good or bad, then yes, the conversation will be closed. Because then the conversation is about vaccines, not Andrelton Simmons. I'm not sure why this is unclear. No one has even said anything that bad about Simmons other than they don't like his opinion on something. I mean, this is a discussion forum. That's well within the bounds of a topic about a player to politely state one's opinion about things that player has said and done publicly.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    This is all I'm going to say on the subject and we all need to move on afterward: No one has mentioned politics here except you. Two people gave their opinion on bringing back a player who was quite outspoken about vaccinations (not politics), a guy who put the on-field product of the team in jeopardy early in the season and did some damage to the Twins' ability to compete at a crucial point in the season. Maybe that doesn't matter to you and that's fine. That's your opinion. Others may feel differently based on the actions and opinions of the player in question, actions and opinions he has publicly stated on multiple occasions.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins themselves have suggested their payroll will be similar to previous seasons and we're talking $45m here. That's a boatload of money and plenty of room for a high profile signing and still coming under that $45m number by a large margin. They gave Donaldson $95m two offseasons ago and Buxton $100m like five minutes ago. To suggest they're in some dire straights when they themselves have not given the slightest indication that is the case is building a narrative to fit the argument. Again, I see plenty of reasons why a $150m contract is not in the team's best interests right now, but that's a vastly different conversation than whether they can afford a $150m contract. They can obviously afford it, they're choosing not to do it.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    The Padres say ? Also, tone down the condescension... again. Strictly going by the numbers, the Twins are down roughly $45m over previous payrolls. They CAN afford to sign a $150m deal should they choose to do so. We can argue the merits of signing a contract that large but this franchise is certainly capable of affording a contract of that size. They took on a nearly $200m contract over ten years ago, they can certainly do the same today.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Hahahah, exactly my thoughts. Literally everything I've read about Simmons is that he's a great clubhouse guy with extraordinary baseball IQ (which we saw on display regularly in 2021). Unfortunately, I'm less convinced of the rest of his IQ (for pretty obvious reasons) given how April 2021 played out.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins should have so much money available that $5m to Simmons shouldn't change their pitching plans, though. After Polanco's monstrous 2021 campaign at second, I think it's foolish to even consider him at short in 2022, especially considering how bad he is at playing the position now. The Twins need a shortstop. I'm not sure Simmons is the guy but they need a shortstop and they don't have one. Neither Gordon nor Polanco are really legitimate options as MLB shortstops, or at least the Twins are convinced of that being the case.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    First, I *hate* the idea of bringing him back but after missing out on a bunch of shortstops (to be fair, at not-great prices compared to the starting pitchers they also missed out on), would you consider Simmons an acceptable fall-back candidate? Frankly, out of the remaining options (excluding Story, which I'm now convinced the Twins have a zero percent chance to sign because they appear averse to any long-term free agent deal this offseason), he may be the best remaining option on a bang-for-buck basis. I don't like Simmons and would prefer him not to return to the Twins but frankly, he's a pretty solid bounce back candidate given his ridiculous offensive underperformance in 2021.
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