Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Brock Beauchamp

Site Manager
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    32,302

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    328

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, the strikeouts are an effect of the problem. The problem is contact and how easy it has become to pitch around the holes in Sano's swing. Which is why I've been concerned about Sano since his MiLB rehab. The contact was never there, as evidenced by the strikeouts. When he got to MLB, he had a bit of a grace period but was still missing the ball way too often. It was bound to catch up to him sooner or later; I only hoped it wouldn't get this bad.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    One of the three greatest second basemen of the modern era? Sure, that's reasonable.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugly game, would have been nice to pull out the win. Gonna be a rough series in Chicago after that one.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    First paragraph: I don't think these numbers are correct but that's a little nit-picking. My (somewhat vague) recollection is that hitters generally only bunt a ball fair 50% of the time. Success is well under 50%. Anyway, that's not my real point. Second paragraph: Yes, and this is the exact point. The chance of scoring a single run increases slightly but the chance of scoring multiple runs decreases slightly. Those are literally the numbers. It was the seventh inning and the Twins' chances to score more than one run were diminished. If it was a tie game and the Twins needed just one run to win, it's a more defensible move. It's an easily defensible move if the same situation arises in the ninth inning, at which point it becomes the numbers move. The Rays' bullpen is kinda irrelevant in the argument because it's not as if the Twins get to face the Orioles bullpen after the eighth inning if they tie the game. They still have to go out and hack away against one of the better bullpens in baseball, only they do it with nobody on base.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I have not seen definitive information one way or the other but people are indicating that he did so I'm going from that limited information.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    On top of the numbers being against the move, this is what really made me go WTF. Best offense in baseball. Possibly the worst bullpen amongst contenders. What could possibly go wrong with playing for one run in the seventh inning?
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    So you care more about specific situations that pop up once every so often in literally one-half of a player's game than you care about the player's entire game? Besides, even if you buy into that weird viewpoint, Schoop's 2019 OPS (.781) is barely different than his 2019 RISP OPS (.761). And if you want to drill down into microscopic splits, he's crushing the ball with men on first and second with a .878 OPS. His OPS with men on base is .827. *shrugs shoulders and wanders off*
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Schoop is playing at roughly a 2 WAR level over a full season. That’s a perfectly adequate staring player in MLB.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Read the article. The run expectancy actually drops and that’s if you SUCCESSFULLY execute the bunt. Which Schoop did not. I don’t care if I change your mind or not, the numbers are clear. Bunting in that situation is a bad idea. Feel free to go with your gut, I’ll go with the numbers every time.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Not some magical moment, just the moment it makes sense to bunt when you want to win a baseball game. https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/ “Sac Bunt, 1st & 2nd to 2nd & 3rd This one is probably the biggest mistake of the three in youth baseball, because it reduces the team’s chances of having a BIG inning, and big innings often single-handedly win games. The reduction in run expectancy (RE) is only 0.06 runs, and so it basically wastes an out without improving the odds of scoring.”
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Here, let me google that for you. https://www.google.com/search?q=fangraphs.com+bunting&oq=fangraphs.com+bunting&aqs=chrome..69i64j69i60l2j69i57.8190j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Most/all MLB players should be competent bunters. On that, I agree. Where I disagree wildly is that it was a smart strategy last night because the numbers said it wasn't and I hope Baldelli goes back to his policy of playing the numbers. Bunting is useful on the rare occasion the numbers say it's a good idea to use (and that situation is more likely to pop up in the postseason where dropping a game unnecessarily can be devastating). Therefore, MLB players (outside of the best hitters in the lineup) should be at least marginally competent at laying down a bunt. But, again, being competent at bunting isn't the point most of us are arguing. We're saying it was a bad idea last night because it was a bad idea last night.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    No, based on math. That's why it was a bad decision. Baldelli plays the numbers the vast majority of the time, as he should. Because playing the numbers wins the most games over the course of a 162 game season. For some reason, he didn't play the numbers here and the strategy failed.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not "resting my laurels" on anything. The Twins had a rough series against the Royals and came away with the split. It happens over a 162 game season. The Astros are probably the best team in the league and they just got swept by the Cincinnati-freakin-Reds last week. It happens. Overall, the Twins are doing just fine against the Royals and that's what really matters.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    The Twins are 6-3 against the Royals this season.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    It was the seventh inning and the Twins have the highest-scoring offense in baseball. You don't play for a run in that situation. You try to take the lead, not tie the game. It's not the ninth inning. And despite giving away an out, what did the Twins do in that situation? They took the lead because Cruz hammering the effing ball, just like the rest of this lineup does on a near-nightly basis. Play for one run when you need one run to keep the game alive. Outside of that specific situation, you play for as many runs as possible.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    LOL, no.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Any team can knock out another team once the postseason begins. In the past four seasons, a Division Series has been played 16 times. The lower-seeded team has won six times (37.5% of the time), including the Wild Card winner three times (also 37.5% of the time). People really underestimate how unpredictable baseball is over five or seven games.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Last I saw, Astudillo graded roughly average as a catcher and marginally sub-par in the field outside playing catcher. If that guy hits, he's a useful player. I'm saying this as a person who is NOT an Astudillo fan, just a person who wants the Twins to field the best team they can.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    He looks good... but it's 50 PAs. Again, if Arraez had more positional flexibility, I'd keep him around but he plays second base, which is a dead-end position. You can put him at third or short but you'll regret the decision if it happens too frequently. Between Astudillo and Arraez, I keep the catcher because catchers are super-useful, especially one that can man several other positions (albeit kinda badly). It gives a lot of flexibility to make moves in-game.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    He’ll likely be sent back down and that’s fine, really. Having a great ~50 intro PAs is great but it’s not enough to displace a starter yet. Arraez is under control for a long time and while I don’t want to see him traded, I’m not ready to move other roster spots to make space for him quite yet. I may feel differently if he had more positional flexibility.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    There can never be enough things written about the greatness of Mike Trout.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Numbers are fine but they don’t tell why something happened. Look at what Boston did to Sano during that series; they threw him breaking balls down and then went high fastball and Sano could not come close to making contact with the ball. Rinse, repeat. As a result, he struck out around 75% of the time in that series. That is not a problem that will go away, especially once teams have a little time to soak in that film and adapt to what Boston did with frightening success.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugh. Whatever. If you bothered to understand my posting history, I *never* predict numbers because it’s a guessing game based on a myriad of factors that are largely unpredictable (health being a key factor). If you want to shout numbers back and forth at a person, you barked up the wrong tree and it has nothing to do with me wanting to have it both ways. Also, stop trying to define on your terms how I get to have a conversation on this forum.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Because I’m not concerned about the performance numbers, I’m concerned about the approach that is leading to diminished performance numbers. I care about the disease, not the symptoms. Fix the disease and the symptoms follow. This isn’t a contest where we guess how many jelly beans are in the jar and the closest guess gets a stuffed bear.
×
×
  • Create New...