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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    That’s what I mean by “service clock”. Adding a player to the 40-man certainly isn’t as critical as running up service time in the majors, but it’s also important to how a player’s control is managed going forward. For example, Rooker’s trade value drops a bit if he’s on the 40-man roster. Anyway, my main point is that teams don’t make unnecessary moves that cannot be reversed. Once a guy is on the 40-man, he’s there for good and your options going forward are therefore somewhat limited.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Teams don’t add players like Rooker to the 40-man roster as a depth piece. Rooker isn’t a great prospect but he’s good enough that the team can and will control how his service clock is managed.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m pretty sure this was the first home stand or road trip the Twins lost all season.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    When you hit a lot of dingers and blow out a lot of games, some metrics tend to get out of whack. See examples Twins, Yankees.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins continue to post 3-3 "down weeks", sign me up.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Very good points, though I think the change is likely the result of the Boston series and the change had not be implemented at that point. Sano was just too vulnerable to high fastballs in that series for me to believe he was already working on fixing it. Anyway, great to hear the team is working on it (of course they are, still good to hear it, though).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Seeing Sano rip a bunch of homers is great, but I want to see him do it over a prolonged period of time against a team with both good pitching and an analytic approach. As we saw against Boston, I'm pretty worried about an analytic-forward team dismantling Sano in the postseason without even trying very hard. He needs to make more contact, particularly on fastballs high in the zone. He doesn't even need to hit them fair, just foul them off often enough to stay alive in the plate appearance. I never expect the guy to strike out less than 30% of the time and that's okay, but he needs to make more contact.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    "A run" as in "singular run, not runs". In case the way I phrased that wasn't clear. Bunting with two on and no outs increases the chance of scoring a single run and decreases the chance of scoring multiple runs, hence my "a run" comment. For the record, I'm actually quite a fan of bunting for hits. I think guys like Buxton and Polanco should do it more often to keep the defense honest (unless they can't bunt for a good batting average, then quit it). I'm not a fan of putting a plodding quasi-slugger with no bunting skills in a situation to sacrifice bunt, though. Schoop is unreasonably slow for his athleticism and, as we all witnessed, cannot bunt for ****.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    This entire thread is aging like fine wine.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Pretty sure he meant no outs, in which case a strikeout is definitely the worst kind of out. Either way, it doesn't really matter because forest > tree.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    First, I don't think you want LIttell out that one batter longer than you absolutely have to pitch him. Second, the Rays had two lefties coming up the following inning. My guess is that it was a little of both of those factors.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Correction: not worried about anything other than the pitching. GIbson had to go out there and throw bullpen innings in a loss. Not awesome.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, the strikeouts are an effect of the problem. The problem is contact and how easy it has become to pitch around the holes in Sano's swing. Which is why I've been concerned about Sano since his MiLB rehab. The contact was never there, as evidenced by the strikeouts. When he got to MLB, he had a bit of a grace period but was still missing the ball way too often. It was bound to catch up to him sooner or later; I only hoped it wouldn't get this bad.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    One of the three greatest second basemen of the modern era? Sure, that's reasonable.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugly game, would have been nice to pull out the win. Gonna be a rough series in Chicago after that one.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    First paragraph: I don't think these numbers are correct but that's a little nit-picking. My (somewhat vague) recollection is that hitters generally only bunt a ball fair 50% of the time. Success is well under 50%. Anyway, that's not my real point. Second paragraph: Yes, and this is the exact point. The chance of scoring a single run increases slightly but the chance of scoring multiple runs decreases slightly. Those are literally the numbers. It was the seventh inning and the Twins' chances to score more than one run were diminished. If it was a tie game and the Twins needed just one run to win, it's a more defensible move. It's an easily defensible move if the same situation arises in the ninth inning, at which point it becomes the numbers move. The Rays' bullpen is kinda irrelevant in the argument because it's not as if the Twins get to face the Orioles bullpen after the eighth inning if they tie the game. They still have to go out and hack away against one of the better bullpens in baseball, only they do it with nobody on base.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I have not seen definitive information one way or the other but people are indicating that he did so I'm going from that limited information.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    On top of the numbers being against the move, this is what really made me go WTF. Best offense in baseball. Possibly the worst bullpen amongst contenders. What could possibly go wrong with playing for one run in the seventh inning?
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    So you care more about specific situations that pop up once every so often in literally one-half of a player's game than you care about the player's entire game? Besides, even if you buy into that weird viewpoint, Schoop's 2019 OPS (.781) is barely different than his 2019 RISP OPS (.761). And if you want to drill down into microscopic splits, he's crushing the ball with men on first and second with a .878 OPS. His OPS with men on base is .827. *shrugs shoulders and wanders off*
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Schoop is playing at roughly a 2 WAR level over a full season. That’s a perfectly adequate staring player in MLB.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Read the article. The run expectancy actually drops and that’s if you SUCCESSFULLY execute the bunt. Which Schoop did not. I don’t care if I change your mind or not, the numbers are clear. Bunting in that situation is a bad idea. Feel free to go with your gut, I’ll go with the numbers every time.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Not some magical moment, just the moment it makes sense to bunt when you want to win a baseball game. https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/ “Sac Bunt, 1st & 2nd to 2nd & 3rd This one is probably the biggest mistake of the three in youth baseball, because it reduces the team’s chances of having a BIG inning, and big innings often single-handedly win games. The reduction in run expectancy (RE) is only 0.06 runs, and so it basically wastes an out without improving the odds of scoring.”
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Here, let me google that for you. https://www.google.com/search?q=fangraphs.com+bunting&oq=fangraphs.com+bunting&aqs=chrome..69i64j69i60l2j69i57.8190j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Most/all MLB players should be competent bunters. On that, I agree. Where I disagree wildly is that it was a smart strategy last night because the numbers said it wasn't and I hope Baldelli goes back to his policy of playing the numbers. Bunting is useful on the rare occasion the numbers say it's a good idea to use (and that situation is more likely to pop up in the postseason where dropping a game unnecessarily can be devastating). Therefore, MLB players (outside of the best hitters in the lineup) should be at least marginally competent at laying down a bunt. But, again, being competent at bunting isn't the point most of us are arguing. We're saying it was a bad idea last night because it was a bad idea last night.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    No, based on math. That's why it was a bad decision. Baldelli plays the numbers the vast majority of the time, as he should. Because playing the numbers wins the most games over the course of a 162 game season. For some reason, he didn't play the numbers here and the strategy failed.
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