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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    If there's an ace available, the Twins need to explore that opportunity but at the potential cost of Lewis+, I'm hesitant to throw in all the chips on a pitcher like that. Still, the conversation should happen. Thankfully, the Twins' biggest weakness is the bullpen, which also costs the least prospect capital to fix. If they get one very good reliever, I'll be satisfied... but the target should be a very good reliever and a good reliever, in my opinion.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It was a close game and Rogers hadn't pitched in eight (!) days. It was a smart move to bring in Taylor. He needed game action to stay fresh and the game was close enough that bringing in your best reliever for the ninth made sense. The Twins are playing the Royals, not the Yankees. Odorizzi starts today. There's a good chance Rogers isn't even needed for the rest of the series and I'd much rather see Rogers pitch a meaningful ninth last night than to pitch the eighth in an 8-3 game tomorrow just because his arm needs to throw an inning.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Despite general board consternation over Gibson, probably because of his E.coli induced rough start, Kyle has quietly put up a better 2019 than 2018. His K% is up 3.1%. His BB% is down a whopping 4.1%. His FIP is down 0.28.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    This is literally the exact article I’ve been waiting a month to see. Stellar work, Tom.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not only the juiced ball. Anyone over 40 remembers what the back of lineups looked like in the 70s and 80s. They were pathetic. It was an era when Mario Mendoza received ~1500 PAs and hit for a 41 OPS+ because reasons. It's also part of the reason why pitchers no longer go eight innings a start. It was a lot easier to go through a lineup four times when 33% of the opposing lineup couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag. Just lob an 86mph fastball over the plate and let your defense do the work for you.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    In no way have I even implied such a thing.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    This is pretty much my opinion in a nutshell. Sano is a very good hitter but with that pitch recognition and contact ability, I suspect he's at or close to his ceiling. Tweak that pitch recognition just a little and he could become something really special while still striking out a ton (just not as much as today).
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Amazon Prime is streaming the Worricker trilogy and the cast is crazy-good: Bill Nighy Rachel Weisz Ralph Fiennes Christopher Walken Winona Ryder Helena Bonham Carter Felicity Jones Michael Gambon
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    You keep using the word "magically" as if it's impossible for a player to improve his pitch recognition and ability to lay off breaking balls. A few years back, I said Eddie Rosario simply needs to lay off swinging at the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him and he'd be an above average player. I remember outright ridicule from some posters, saying that such a small change would barely make a dent in his numbers. Well... Outside Zone Swing Rate: 2016: 41.7% 2017: 37.6% OPS: 2016: .716 2017: .836 Small changes can reap huge rewards in this game, particularly when it comes to pitch selection and contact. Better selection means more pitches seen, which forces pitchers to throw more pitches in the zone. More pitches in the zone means more and better contact. It's a waterfall effect; small changes over thousands of pitches seen add up to more hits, more walks, and higher slugging. I'm not asking for Sano to "magically" become a different player, I'm saying he needs to work on a few small adjustments to become a better version of the player he is today, just as Rosario is not suddenly Joe Mauer just because he stopped swinging at pitches three feet out of the zone.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Tell that to Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton, two guys that have trimmed their K rates by over 10% and seen their productivity shoot through the roof as a result (and I'm not even asking for that large of an improvement from Sano, just a mild improvement on those abysmal K and contact rates).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know why so many people have a hard time calling out Sano's atrocious contact rate while also accepting that he will strike out quite a bit. But the difference between a 38% K rate and a 32% K rate would go a looooooong way with the guy. No one should want him to turn into Astudillo but there's certainly room for improvement in his approach. Last night was a perfect example of how his approach nearly cost the team a victory. The pitcher didn't throw him a fastball because he didn't have to... thankfully, the pitcher lost control of a pitch and the winning run scored without Sano needing to do anything.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree the risk is being overblown a bit by some posters, there's always risk in putting more than 10% of your payroll into a single reliever. The opportunity cost of money going to one player and not another always carries risk with it. Perhaps the riskiest of all investments is relief pitching, which ups the stakes in this particular situation. But overall, again, I'm mildly disappointed that the Twins didn't get Kimbrel and time will tell us whether they were right to back off a third year.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    One can feel it's a missed opportunity while not feeling it's a "huge" missed opportunity because of the risk. I'm disappointed by the Twins' failure to get Kimbrel but I'm far from heartbroken over it. As for "40 games" until a trade is made, two questions: 1. When do you expect Kimbrel to throw his first pitch for the Cubs? 2. When do you expect Kimbrel to throw his first effective pitch for the Cubs? The difference between "40 days to make a trade" and the answer to #2 may not be terribly different in the best case scenario and the answer could pretty easily swing heavily in favor of the trade solution without squinting too much. We're talking about a very good reliever, for sure, but one that will not have thrown a competitive pitch in 8-9 months when he takes the mound for the Cubs.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    For starters, because Kimbrel is a moderate risk himself, particularly for 2019, which is what I really care about right now. Who do you trust more, a pitcher having a solid 2019 season (fill in your tradable reliever of choice here) or Craig Kimbrel? I lean away from Kimbrel in that situation because I think he's something of a wild card for the 2019 season. What bothers me about last offseason is that it appears they didn't even really try hard to find a reliever. They shored up the offense, spent a considerable about of money, but still came in under the previous season's payroll threshold while failing to pick up a solid relief arm. That really irks me. Other arms will be available. When it comes to trading players or signing free agents, I generally try to avoid clinging to a specific name. What I care about is acquiring a good player, not the player I've chosen using my limited knowledge and data resources.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, it can be both about the money and a sound decision. Whether we want to admit it or not, this is (mostly) a zero sum game. Time will tell who is right about Kimbrel (though if he fails, it's entirely possible the Cubs also expected it and simply do not care... that's the luxury they have of carrying a payroll well north of $200m).
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, and 93 and 98. I figured "and other years" was good enough to make the point.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    Lawton was traded in 2001 and proceeded to be pretty bad for the Mets.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    MLB integrated in 1947, which changed the level of competition, rendering old stats largely outdated. MLB expanded in 1961 (and other years), which lowered the level of competition, rendering old stats largely outdated. MLB lowered the mound in 1969, which gave hitters an advantage, rendering old stats largely outdated. The AL added the DH in 1973, completely skewering old team stats, rendering them largely outdated. Through the 80s and 90s, an influx of Latin players invaded the league, rendering old stats largely outdated. I could go on but you probably get my point by now.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    It's most definitely not "totally" due to the ball. Teams have figured out that a certain type of swing generates flyballs and that flyballs are more productive than groundballs. As a result, teams are drafting and developing players to use a swing that facilitates lots of flyballs/line drives. Add in improved conditioning and stronger players and you get more home runs. The ball likely has a role but it's far from the only factor in play here.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think that's the case at all. The 2019 squad started the season with Sano, possibly their best slugger (though everyone's so good right now it's almost a moot point), on the IL. Later, they had their two best overall hitters (Cruz and Garver) go down for a few weeks each. The team played some of its best baseball during that stretch of play. If a pitcher goes down, things could get ugly, but thus far the team has weathered some really good players spending extended time away from the field and no one missed a beat.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't really buy into the 2001 comps. They were similar at a glance, but the 2001 squad had more glaring weaknesses and their competition was much better (Cleveland was never more than 5 GB). That team went from a peak of 24 games over .500 to ending the season just 8 games over .500. Even when that team was rolling (the first half of the season), their run differential was only +63. They only have two months (April and May) where they outscored their opponents. The 2019 squad has a run differential of +112 in fewer games.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It will be quite some time before I truly trust Tyler Duffey.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It has been almost impossible to complain about player management this season. Baldelli is doing an outstanding job of making sure these players are in a position to succeed with the rest needed to get through a long season.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    He's been doing it for about a month now. He hit his low water mark on May 12th with a .433 OPS. It has been climbing steadily since.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes. He's professional ballplayer and if you actually watched the pregame show, they had a really good bit on how Kyle prepares between games. He's obviously ready, as his regimen appears to be solid and his results show as such. I sometimes oversleep by 15 minutes, skip a full breakfast, and still manage to perform at a high level. It's weird, how humans sometimes don't do the exact same thing every day.
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