Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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Yeah, pretty much this. His plate appearances last night were brutal. -
He was moved to the IL a day or two ago.
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This is literally what I feared would happen when I saw he was still striking out a ton. To quote myself from June 4th in the "Need to take a hard look at Sano" thread: "We've seen this with Sano before; a hot start where pitchers underestimate him, then an adjustment period where Miguel's numbers start to decline as pitchers realize he'll swing and miss at a ton of borderline pitches. We'll see if that happens again this season soon enough. I hope it doesn't but given his miss rate, I don't have a lot of confidence."
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His K rate now stands at 39.2%.
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Ah, for some reason I thought the Yankees only took on $5m.
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I get it but the Yankees didn't even take on *all* the money and Encarnacion is one of the best hitters in baseball. Not sure what the hell Seattle was thinking, to be honest. If they were willing to pay money (which they did), it seems the Red Sox or Cleveland or Tampa would have been willing to give something to get the guy.
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I agree that pitching will cost more than Encarnacion but damn, his price was so low that I don't even know what to think.
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AFAIK, there's no reason he shouldn't be available today. He didn't pitch for eight days, after all.
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That's a really good point. Good teams will use that 26th to add productive depth to the roster but I suspect terrible teams like the Royals and Marlins will use that roster spot to store Rule V players. So yeah, I think the Rule V draft will be a lot more hectic and meaningful going forward. Here's a list of the rule changes, BTW. https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/03/14/mlb-new-rule-changes-roster-3-batter-minimum/3157226002/
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I really don't want to argue about it. All I'm saying is that if the Twins decide to target a starter this deadline, I hope they are able to do what the Astros did and target a veteran that isn't being tapped for 100% of his potential (because it's basically impossible to argue with Verlander's numbers since going to Houston; he's back into the debate of "best pitcher in baseball' and no longer only a "really good pitcher".
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Was editing my post to add this: Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade. Verlander's ERA leadup to the trade in Detroit (2014-2017): 4.54, 3.38, 3.04, 3.82 Verlander's ERA in Houston, a bandbox of a park (2017-present): 1.06, 2.52, 2.41
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Marcus Stroman isn't far off where Verlander was in Detroit two years ago. Let's not forget that Verlander was a 34 year old "good" pitcher back in 2017. He wasn't the dominant force he was in his prime or is today. The Astros worked some of their trademark magic on him after the trade.
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If there's an ace available, the Twins need to explore that opportunity but at the potential cost of Lewis+, I'm hesitant to throw in all the chips on a pitcher like that. Still, the conversation should happen. Thankfully, the Twins' biggest weakness is the bullpen, which also costs the least prospect capital to fix. If they get one very good reliever, I'll be satisfied... but the target should be a very good reliever and a good reliever, in my opinion.
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It was a close game and Rogers hadn't pitched in eight (!) days. It was a smart move to bring in Taylor. He needed game action to stay fresh and the game was close enough that bringing in your best reliever for the ninth made sense. The Twins are playing the Royals, not the Yankees. Odorizzi starts today. There's a good chance Rogers isn't even needed for the rest of the series and I'd much rather see Rogers pitch a meaningful ninth last night than to pitch the eighth in an 8-3 game tomorrow just because his arm needs to throw an inning.
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- kyle gibson
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Despite general board consternation over Gibson, probably because of his E.coli induced rough start, Kyle has quietly put up a better 2019 than 2018. His K% is up 3.1%. His BB% is down a whopping 4.1%. His FIP is down 0.28.
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- kyle gibson
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This is literally the exact article I’ve been waiting a month to see. Stellar work, Tom.
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It's not only the juiced ball. Anyone over 40 remembers what the back of lineups looked like in the 70s and 80s. They were pathetic. It was an era when Mario Mendoza received ~1500 PAs and hit for a 41 OPS+ because reasons. It's also part of the reason why pitchers no longer go eight innings a start. It was a lot easier to go through a lineup four times when 33% of the opposing lineup couldn't hit their way out of a paper bag. Just lob an 86mph fastball over the plate and let your defense do the work for you.
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In no way have I even implied such a thing.
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This is pretty much my opinion in a nutshell. Sano is a very good hitter but with that pitch recognition and contact ability, I suspect he's at or close to his ceiling. Tweak that pitch recognition just a little and he could become something really special while still striking out a ton (just not as much as today).
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Amazon Prime is streaming the Worricker trilogy and the cast is crazy-good: Bill Nighy Rachel Weisz Ralph Fiennes Christopher Walken Winona Ryder Helena Bonham Carter Felicity Jones Michael Gambon
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You keep using the word "magically" as if it's impossible for a player to improve his pitch recognition and ability to lay off breaking balls. A few years back, I said Eddie Rosario simply needs to lay off swinging at the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him and he'd be an above average player. I remember outright ridicule from some posters, saying that such a small change would barely make a dent in his numbers. Well... Outside Zone Swing Rate: 2016: 41.7% 2017: 37.6% OPS: 2016: .716 2017: .836 Small changes can reap huge rewards in this game, particularly when it comes to pitch selection and contact. Better selection means more pitches seen, which forces pitchers to throw more pitches in the zone. More pitches in the zone means more and better contact. It's a waterfall effect; small changes over thousands of pitches seen add up to more hits, more walks, and higher slugging. I'm not asking for Sano to "magically" become a different player, I'm saying he needs to work on a few small adjustments to become a better version of the player he is today, just as Rosario is not suddenly Joe Mauer just because he stopped swinging at pitches three feet out of the zone.
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Tell that to Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton, two guys that have trimmed their K rates by over 10% and seen their productivity shoot through the roof as a result (and I'm not even asking for that large of an improvement from Sano, just a mild improvement on those abysmal K and contact rates).
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I don't know why so many people have a hard time calling out Sano's atrocious contact rate while also accepting that he will strike out quite a bit. But the difference between a 38% K rate and a 32% K rate would go a looooooong way with the guy. No one should want him to turn into Astudillo but there's certainly room for improvement in his approach. Last night was a perfect example of how his approach nearly cost the team a victory. The pitcher didn't throw him a fastball because he didn't have to... thankfully, the pitcher lost control of a pitch and the winning run scored without Sano needing to do anything.
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Article: Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
While I agree the risk is being overblown a bit by some posters, there's always risk in putting more than 10% of your payroll into a single reliever. The opportunity cost of money going to one player and not another always carries risk with it. Perhaps the riskiest of all investments is relief pitching, which ups the stakes in this particular situation. But overall, again, I'm mildly disappointed that the Twins didn't get Kimbrel and time will tell us whether they were right to back off a third year.
