Walker Jenkins and the Path to the Twins Opening Day Roster

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say.

So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

I am ok with what you are suggesting chpettit.  We will see if they plan to bring up at the start of the season, otherwise we will be on Walker Jenkins watch the rest of the year.    If they do bring him up for a cup of coffee at the end of the season it does increase the probabilities they are willing to bring him up at the start of the season.   

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The point is that you aren't guaranteed that extra year. The Pirates didn't get an extra year with Skenes. They didn't call him up until well after the service time cutoff date, but he was still awarded a full year of service time for winning rookie of the year. The Pirates could've gained an extra first round draft pick from that extra time with Skenes in the majors. But instead, they gained nothing at all. That's a very bad value proposition, I'd say.

So, if you're going to manipulate service time with the elite prospects of the world, you better manipulate it hard. Better hold him out half the season. And if you're going to hold him out for half the season in 2026, why not just hold him out the whole thing and see what happens in 2027 with a potential lockout and maybe you don't have to start his clock until he's 23 or 24 and you get his whole prime without ever having to pay him.

Your "what if" is a valid consideration but what would you estimate the odds are Jenkins wins ROY?  My guess is less than 20% so I am not making decisions based on that assumption.  

The pick should not be a factor. By the time the draft gets into the 30s there is a pretty small chance of a significant major league career. Of the players drafted and signed at pick 31 you will find Greg Maddux and then Jarrod Washburn. No one else has surpassed 10 career WAR.

I have no idea if Jenkins will give them the better chance of winning games next April. The Twins need him though. This organization needs hope. He ought to have a chance to win the job in spring training. I wouldn’t worry about the year of service time either though I think it has more potential value than a pick in the 30s.

They shouldn’t make the decision based on a pick or service time. They need to get this man in a major league uniform when they determine he can help them win games. I hope it is opening day next year. They need to send a massage that winning is top priority from day one next year.

49 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

I'm not saying it automatically overrides the potential of an extra year of his prime (which is not a certainty if his service time gets manipulated like you suggest - that assumes he has no setbacks in his development that would require a future stay in the minors; it also assumes no material change to service time rules in a CBA that looks like it's prime for several material changes), but you have to at least acknowledge the chance bringing him up to start the year results in an additional first round pick - and the slot dollars that come along with it.  Does that override an extra prime year if service time rules don't change and he sticks immediately? I don't know, probably not.  But it is an element in the equation.

Also, you run the risk of a Kris Bryant-esque grievance if his service time gets manipulated that blatantly.  In fact, doesn't he get credited with a full year of service time anyway if he finishes top 2 in rookie of the year balloting?

Jenkins is going to play a max of 21 games at AAA,  He would have to have video game numbers at AA and AAA to warrant calling holding him down manipulation.  His number at AA were good but nowhere near what Bryant accomplished.  Bryant had an OPS of 1160 at AA the year before he made the big-league club. in 2014.  He was promoted to AAA and had an OPS of 1057 over 70 games.  J It will not be a blatant manipulation even if he has an 1100 OPS.   

The new CBA will be agreed upon after Jenkins debuts unless things go terribly wrong.  There is not going to be retroactive application of service time.  

On 8/24/2025 at 6:35 AM, The Mad King said:

Seems like that rule could also work the opposite way. Keeping a player down an extra season to get that extra pick...

Let's say he doesn't break camp and he's sent to St Paul. Why bring him up in June or July instead of just wait till the next season? Especially if you're not in contention. 

Because that would be management malfeasance to hold a top young prospect back who could help the team now, just to reduce his service time and hold out for another draft pick the next year. That’s why MLB has the new program, to incentivize promotion to the big leagues instead stashing minor leaguers to delay free agency. And it’s not like the NFL OR NBA, where draft choices are easier to scout and project than in baseball, where deciding who to draft can be a bit of a crapshoot. 

On 8/28/2025 at 1:43 PM, LA VIkes Fan said:

I didn't see that next year is Rodriguez's last option year. If that's the case, he's got to be the 4th/5th OF next year behind Buxton, Jenkins, and Wallner, and it's a fight between Martin, Outman, and Fedko for the other backup OF job with Martin probably winning that job.  

On the catching side, I'm influenced by the change in Ryan's performance after losing Vasquez who kind of became his personal catcher. My point is we need a backup, can't be Micky Gasar (shudder), and Vasquez has the history and rapport with these pitchers. You're right that Genesis Cabrera and Blake Kriske at the very least should not be gracing a big league mound and that's the root problem. Still, I want a good catcher to team with Jeffers next year like Vasquez or Austin Hedges, not a good bat who also catches like Danny Jansen.I wh ishwe had someone ready at AAA but I just think we don't.  

Rodriguez who has been ranked in the top 3 prospect for many years has to be the starter in RF. 

The concept of "isn't ready" isn't  the proper way of evaluating the decision.  Of course he will not "be ready" for major league baseball.   Very few young players are when they reach that level.  There is a developmental curve for almost every player at the major league level.  When you rebuild you expect the young players you put into the lineup to "not be ready".  You expect to LOSE games.

But those losses are an investment in the future of the team.  Long time Minnesota Twins fans know that the 1982 team wasn't ready and they put 22 year old Frank Viola out on the mound despite his 5.21 ERA and 4-10 record (followed up by a 5.49 ERA in 1983) knowing he "wasn't ready".

And, as the 1982 team knew the other aspect of rebuilding is who the hell else are you going to throw there?  Mickey Gasper (29 yo, .479 OPS), DaShawn Keirsey (28, .324 OPS), Jonah Bride (29, .511 OPS), James Outman (28, .456 OPS), Ryan Fitzgeral (31, .551 OPS).  Throw Genesis Cabrera and Noah Davis out on the mound to "eat up innings" and a bunch of 30+ pitchers like Jose Urena, Erasmo Ramirez, Brooks Kriske, Joey Wents (not 30+ but hey), Anthony Misiewics?

IF Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodrigquez, Kaelen Culpepper cannot hit better than the guys I listed above then we have overrated them so badly that the scouts should be ashamed.   And if we do not have pitchers in the system who cannot pitch better than these below replacement level players then that should make the entire organization ashamed.

The last point, and I know I dragged on, is another factor of the 1982 rebuild that should make it a model is that basically the entire roster was in the "same phase".   They came up together.  They lost together.  They got better together.  They won together.  Half way measures give half way results.  I don't think the Twins management will do this because I think they believe they can at least contend for a wild card spot by filling in low level replacement players around Lewis, Buxton, Lee, Wallner Lopez, Ryan, and Ober, finding a cheap but somewhat mediocre closer and set up guy.  I don't think it is possible but I don't run the team.