Twins Daily Draft Preview: Zack Collins

If he could sniff an 800 OPS, how awful would he have to be behind the plate for the bat to not offset the glove?

It won't let me edit on mobile. So to add to my comment above, our current catcher throws out runners at a 15 to 20 percent clip. And has an OPS between 550 and 600. So how bad would the guy be?

It's probably not a fair comparison, but I was considering the first post that asked how bad the D could be if you're posting an 800 OPS. 

As I recall, Perkins complained about his receiving skills more than his arm.

 

Even if he's Kyle Schwarber, I still don't think the Twins would stick him behind the plate. So that leads to another post - play him at a corner spot... sure, but athletically he's almost certainly limited to first base. There are very few first basemen I would ever draft in the top 15.

I am going to attempt to compare the two players, using Kurt Suzuki as our baseline. He is the starting catcher right now and as I look into our system, I don’t see anyone who will likely be meaningfully better than him.

Last year Suzuki had 470 AB with an OPS of .610 (which is actually better than his 2016 thus far). He had 136 total bases and 29 BB’s, so I am using a number of 165. He hit .240.

I will use an offensive comp of Christian Yelich. He had 476 AB with an OPS of .782 in 2015. 198 TB and 47 BB’s (245 total). He hit .300 and was on base 36.6% of the time.

So the offensive edge would be 80 additional bases a year. 25% more hits, i.e. increase in times advancing or driving in runners as well as being knocked in himself. Yelich did score 27 more runs (although I get that is dependent upon other people). The 63 he put up actually seems pretty low given his offensive numbers. He scored 93 times in 2014 with a lower OPS albeit 90 more AB’s.

That seems like a really huge increase in offense. An edge in pitch framing, “managing the pitchers”, throwing out runners, and passed balls would seem very difficult to prove out an offset to the offensive numbers. Especially when the incumbent is not particularly good at a few of these things to begin with.

All I would simply ask out of the Twins is running some similar and obviously more detailed analysis. For all I know Goin’s team has, but then I would ask that the FO actually read and consider it. The A's likely figured that out with Vogt, he had an OPS of .783 last year and over 440 AB's was worth 3.1 wins offensively.

Will NCAA ever just move to using wood bats?  It seems logical from the standpoint that guys who have a chance to get drafted and have a career in professional baseball will be able to show their true hitting ability.  I understand 90% of the players will not sniff pros, and will struggle but from a safety standpoint as well as projection standpoint it seems like this would be a logical step.

Hey if he can hit, draft him. if the Twins still don't like him at catcher, then trade him later. Not that difficult of a concept to grasp. Just requires an ounce of creative planning and forethought to pull off. But the Twins can't afford to just be business as usual if they want to turn things around.

Hey if he can hit, draft him. if the Twins still don't like him at catcher, then trade him later. Not that difficult of a concept to grasp. Just requires an ounce of creative planning and forethought to pull off. But the Twins can't afford to just be business as usual if they want to turn things around.

Yeah. Grab potentially the best hitter at 15th overall sounds like a win.