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This draft is a mess.
The plan was for this to be a draft board - one through ten, but with the spring playing out as it has, it would be plenty difficult to do that.
Instead there are 10 players listed in three different groups. Let's run through some of the facts and you can try to sort it out for yourself later.
Or we can just wait til the draft gets closer.
(But how much fun would that be?)
SS Brendan Rodgers of Lake Mary (Longwood HS) in Florida is as close to a consensus #1 as you’ll find in this year’s draft class. That’s on account of him starting at (or near) the very top and - despite having a solid but not great year - that he stayed healthy. His season ended earlier this week with a playoff loss, so he should remain healthy up until the draft. Rodgers has been in the mix to Arizona and since no one has been on the field consistently enough to wrestle it from him, that’s where he’ll remain… for now anyway.
P Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara, has been the biggest mover this season. The rapid ascension is due to Tate being moved from a reliever to a starter and having success doing it. With that, however, comes the durability question and, lo and behold, Tate missed his last start with a lat strain. While it’s not exactly a long-term concern, when durability was a question mark to start, it’s enough to make you wonder. Or is it? At this point, it won’t matter to the Twins. A relatively healthy Tate will be off the board in the top 5 picks.
SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt, has also jumped up the board. Successfully making the transition from second base to shortstop has helped his stock. Personally, I have a hard time ignoring the lack of superstar-level shortstops who come from a four-year college. And Swanson isn’t Tulo (and Tulowitzki went 7th in his draft). To be fair to Swanson, it’s not his fault the draft is not good. But Swanson doesn’t have the pop of Tulowitzki (or even Brian Dozier) and it’s not a slam-dunk he stays at shortstop. The debate, though, is moot because Swanson, who is putting up an 1.100 OPS in the top conference is college, isn’t dropping to the Twins.
Those three players are the closest to any consensus Top “pick-your-number” you’ll see and you can feel pretty confident that those three will be off the board before the Twins step to the podium. Of the three, I’d prefer Tate first, Rodgers second and Dansby third - if I were stacking a board - with the bigger gap between Rodgers and Dansby than between Tate and Rodgers.
This is where the murky gets murkier.
Kyle Tucker, a prep outfielder from Florida, has the prettiest looking swing in the draft and lots of raw power. His stock is quietly going up and it’s been suggested to me that he could be off the board by the time the Twins pick. I’d put him and Twins solidly as a potential match at #6 and that’s why he’s being mentioned only shortly after the “top 3”. He’s also the younger brother of Astro minor leaguer Preston Tucker and you know how the Twins love their bloodlines.
Kolby Allard, a prep lefty from California, also shows up in the second group. Allard is unlikely to pitch again until right before the draft, having been sidelined since mid-March with a stress reaction in his back. Allard offers low-to-mid-90 mph heat with a plus curveball, an improving change-up and command that the Twins will love. The knock on Allard is that he’s only going to measure taller than six feet if he stands on his tippy toes. I’d take Allard, cause he’d be signable, he’s young for his class, and his injury isn’t going to be a long-term concern… but he’s really a step below...
Brady Aiken. If I would have told you three weeks before last year’s draft that there is a good chance that the Twins would be able to take Aiken, you wouldn’t have believed me. Well, eleven months later, here we are…
As we all know, the Astros drafted the polished prep lefty first overall last year and agreed to sign him for $6.5m. An MRI showed some “abnormalities” and the Astros reduced their offer to $5m. Aiken, and his rep Casey Close, balked at that figure and he enrolled at IMG Academy this spring. And as you also know, his season their lasted 12 pitches before he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery last month. There have been other questions raised recently about Aiken, and at this time, there is no general consensus about where he should go.
I was told that the afore-linked article gives bloggers a “black-eye”. Basically, Aiken tore his UCL… what else could be wrong/worse? As the article mentions, eventually the truth will be revealed.
But for now, health is not my issue with Aiken. He’s an elite talent and you can’t pass on an elite talent because of an injury that many/some/most pitchers will eventually have. My hang-up with Aiken is, if he wouldn’t sign for $5m last year, why would he sign for 20% less than that this year. (The Twins have a sliver under $4m tied to their 6th overall pick.)
So, as of right now, those would be my Top 6.
Some other names to keep in mind: Louisville pitcher Kyle Funkhouser. Funkhouser has the chops to be a front-end starter, but his lack of command leaves him a step below. Prep righty Mike Nikorak from Pennsylvania is climbing the charts and, with his season just starting, has the most to gain. I’m not going to put him in the Top 6 yet. But I’m not ruling him out. LSU SS Alex Bregman is a player. Where and how he fits is a question, but you can’t simply ignore players like him.
Rounding out the Top 10 is Georgia prep OF Daz Cameron. As I mentioned on a draft thread, it doesn't appear the Twins are too heavy on Mike’s kid, but rumors persist that the Astros may pop the Boras client with the 5th pick in the draft.
As we wind through the last seven weeks heading to the draft things will change quickly and often, but here’s a good place to start.
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