Berrios Dominates Again... Call Him Up!

Berrios felt really good about his Wednesday night start. A season-high 12 strikeouts in seven shutout innings will make a pitcher feel pretty good. Of the start, Berrios said, “Tonight, all three pitches were really nice. The best one was the curveball. I used it to strike them out.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrSWnGmdih8

Having watched several of Berrios’s starts, it appears that he’s had all three of his pitches working well most times out. He says that it is important and has been a focus for him. “You need to use all three pitches to get out big league hitters. The more I throw them, the more confident I am with all three pitches.”

Berrios is quick to credit others for his success. The first thing he said was “All Glory to God!”

He also says that he has received great advice from his coaches in Rochester too. “Yeah, here they want me to work with the curveball, and that’s what I’ve done. I’ve worked with that. I’ve thrown it pretty good.”

It is interesting that Terry Ryan is watching the Red Wings. Asked if he notices Terry Ryan or thinks about the fact that the Twins GM is in the stands watching, Berrios answered quickly. “I don’t think about him. I just do my work and try to get outs and pitch my game.”

However, we all know that Berrios works really hard. It was his goal before the season to make the big league club on Opening Day. He began at AA and dominated there.

He wanted to be in the big leagues before he turned 21 in early May. Instead, he started another Futures Game for the World Team. He moved up to AAA where after his first two starts, he has continued to dominate.

So, what would it mean for him to get that call in September? “It’s my dream from when I was young. It would be a blessing if they called me up in September. If they give me the opportunity to move up, I would try my best to help the team get to the playoffs.”

There is no question that he and his teammates are keeping close tabs on the Twins big league club and their strong success this season.

Asked if seeing Tyler Duffey’s success gives him confidence that he can succeed in the big leagues, Berrios replied quickly. “Yeah! They’ve got a lot of talent, a lot of very good pitchers. They have played very well.”

It is the youth that has been leading the way for the Twins. Miguel Sano has been crushing pitches since his call up on July 1. Byron Buxton returned to the Twins last week after his injury and has multiple hits in four of his last five games. Puerto Rican outfielder Eddie Rosario has been up since early May and proven that he can play in the big leagues. He has a lot of extra-base hits, and he’s played great defense, showing range and a strong, accurate arm. Duffey has been good in his last three starts.

Is He Ready?

There are many angles to the Twins decision to bring up JO Berrios or not. As I wrote earlier, the opinions on that have likely changed in the mind of Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan over the last few weeks. I know that it has changed a few times in the last few weeks.

First and foremost, JO Berrios is the top pitching prospect in the organization. He has done everything that he possibly can at each minor league level to have earned the right to pitch in the big leagues. In 15 starts at AA Chattanooga, he went 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA. In 90.2 innings, he walked 24 and struck out 92. After last night’s game, he is now 4-2 with a 2.78 ERA in ten starts with the Red Wings. In 64.2 innings, he has walked 13 and struck out 73. He has nothing more to prove.

That is a lot of success. That is also a lot of innings. Combined, he is 12-5 with a 2.95 ERA. In a career-high 155.1 innings, he has given up 129 hits, walked 37 and struck out 165 batters. His previous career-high innings was 140.1 innings in 2014.

Many teams subscribe to being concerned about a pitcher working more than a 20% innings increase from year to year. The Twins rarely mention the 20% number though they are aware of it. They monitor it, but they also tend to make those decisions based on how a pitcher is performing on the mound. Beyond numbers, is the pitcher starting to labor more on the mound. Well, based on last night’s performance, Berrios doesn’t appear to be laboring.

If he were called up to the big leagues and put into the starting rotation, he could make seven more starts in high-pressure situations. Let’s estimate that he averaged six innings per start and he could wind up just shy of 200 innings. Of course, the Twins could also bring him up and put him in the bullpen down the stretch, maybe getting him 15 to 20 more innings.

For what it’s worth, the Twins have not given Berrios any indication that he is on any innings limit at this time.

The Business Impact

As of Thursday morning, the Twins hold the second American League wild card spot. All season, Twins fans have tried to enjoy the ride, always wondering when they might falter. There have been a couple of times, including one week ago after the series in New York, when it was fair to wonder aloud if that time had come. This team has shown great resiliency. They have played themselves back into contention. They have added two quality bullpen options, helping the area of the team that needed it most. The idea that arguably the best pitcher in the organization would not be part of a playoff quest seems wrong.

To a fault, I admit that I tend to look at the business side of promotions too much. If the Twins were not contending, I would fully understand and agree with the idea that if they didn’t bring him up this year, it made sense.

Like Buxton, Berrios was a first-round pick in 2012 out of high school. That means that he doesn’t have to be added to the 40-man roster until after the 2016 season. My general belief is that if they are not promoted by early August, it makes little sense for them to call them up and take up a 40-man roster spot. Let him rest and come to spring training as a non-roster invitee in 2016 and come up in late April, gaining another season of his rights before he would hit free agency. It would also allow them to protect another player over the offseason.

That’s just smart. However, the Twins ARE in contention. They do have a real chance to make the playoffs. In my opinion, that means finding a way to get Berrios on the roster.

At that point, some of those intangibles have to come in to play. Can the player handle pitching in these types of pressure situations in a playoff push? How will he handle success or failure? How mature is he? How will he perform while pitching in innings that he has never pitched before? How will he handle the big league lifestyle?

Simply put, there is no way to know with 100% certainty. But they do know JO Berrios. They knew him and watched him before they drafted him in June of 2012. They’ve been able to get to know him better in the past three years. He only turned 21-years-old three months ago, but he is very mature. He is confident yet humble. He clearly has the right work ethic. Beyond that, we don’t know how he will handle it. No one does.

Tyler Duffey was pitching best for the Red Wings when he was called up. He was drafted the same year as Berrios, but he is three years older because he went to college. He is mature. He was ready for the big leagues. And, he was clearly nervous when he made his debut. It’s fair to say he’s calmed down well over his last three starts.

Summary

JO Berrios was great again on Wednesday night for the Red Wings. We talked to him after the game for his thoughts and what a September call up would mean to him. Will he get that call? We’ll find out within the next two weeks. On the mound, he has nothing left to prove, though it is very fair to worry about his innings. He has the makeup and maturity to handle the situation, as well as the confidence and, maybe more important, the pitches.

There are “business” reasons for the Twins to wait until about April 20, 2016, to call him up, but the fact that the Twins are in strong playoff contention in 2015 and the opinion that he may be the best pitcher in the organization right now, it seems pretty apparent (in my humble opinion) that JO Berrios should spend most of September with the Minnesota Twins.

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