What Twins Free Agent Starter Do the Twins Bring Back?

After seeing Rocco Baldelli hamstrung with bad pitching performances and exhausting his options over the past few seasons, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine built a strong stable for the starting rotation. That led to Bailey Ober and Louie Varland beginning the year with Triple-A St. Paul, and Toby Gardenhire’s group had plenty of mouths to feed.

Beyond the big-league rotation, Minnesota still has Varland at Triple-A. Dallas Keuchel has now made two starts for the Twins. Simeon Woods Richardson has shown flashes, and Brent Headrick is a prospect in limbo. Marco Raya and David Festa could also be options to debut next season.

Looking forward to 2024, the Twins will have open spots in the rotation as Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and the currently-injured Tyler Mahle all head out into free agency. The question is, do any of them come back, and what would that look like?

Least Likely - Sonny Gray
Minnesota never seriously wanted to consider dealing Gray during the season but  was approached  by the Tigers about a three-way opportunity with them landing Eduardo Rodriguez. Either way, they would likely pitch him into the postseason and hand him a qualifying offer when the dust settled.

Gray has floated the idea of retiring, but it was likely positioning more than reality. The Twins would love to have him back at $20 million on a one-year deal, but it makes much more sense for him to target multiple years. A month ago, I outlined what that may look like, and the rich price tag there would take Minnesota out of competition for his services.

Somewhat Unlikely - Kenta Maeda
Brought to Major League Baseball by the Los Angeles Dodgers way back in 2016, Maeda’s contract was immediately weird in how it was structured. Just a $25 million deal through 2023, he had plenty of incentives to take things higher while protecting an organization against his potential arm issues.

Minnesota flipped Brusdar Graterol for Maeda, and he provided the Twins with a Cy Young-caliber performance in 2020. His arm blew out, and the Tommy John surgery, always thought possible, reared its head. Across eight starts since returning from the IL, Maeda owns a shiny 2.47 ERA and is allowing just a .597 OPS against.

Maeda’s market is unknown, but the Twins could be interested in sticking with a veteran they know. He’s 35 years old and unlikely to find a mega deal. A one or two-year agreement could make sense, and Maeda has shown well within the Twins organization. Familiarity could be something he values; even with the strong performance of late, his valuation shouldn’t be absurd.

Most Likely - Tyler Mahle
This move may irk fans who still hate the trade that sent Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to the Cincinnati Reds. At the time, although aggressive, the move was very good, and blew up solely with Mahle blowing out his elbow. Minnesota should not bring him back exclusively to save face and pull something out of the deal, but this is a path they have taken before.

Mahle will undoubtedly be unavailable to pitch in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will be eased back into action. There was some shoulder soreness briefly with the Reds, and regardless of where he rehabs, Mahle will look to get everything built back to competition level.

This front office offered Michael Pineda an opportunity to work through surgery under the organization’s direction, and he rewarded them with some solid output. Chris Paddack was acquired as the focal point of a trade that included Emilio Pagan, and the controllable starter was available because of his injury concerns. The Twins also extended him, and he seems to be trending toward an Opening Day roster spot next year.

If the Twins still believe in the upside they saw in Mahle when he was acquired, bringing him back on a team-friendly deal makes a lot of sense. He noted that Minnesota felt like a good place to be, and pitching depth with strong upside while avoiding substantial cost is a good way to build.

Is there a starter that you want the Twins to bring back for 2024? How far do you want them to go to make that happen?