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FORT MYERS--Reality delivered a slap in the face to Twins Territory yesterday, and followed it up with an eye-gouge for good measure. First, fans hoping for some late-offseason roster additions were told in no uncertain terms by ownership that the Twins will not sign one of the remaining big free agents. But the bad news didn’t end there.
“But without a question, the television situation is having an impact on our business,” Joe Pohlad explained to Jason DeRusha on WCCO radio. “But beyond that, we’re also just trying to right-size our business.”
Those last three words are chilling to anyone who has followed the Twins' growth into a contender, because that growth has included spending money. Over the last two years, they've invested additional dollars into big contracts for players like Byron Buxton, Pablo López, and Carlos Correa.
"Right-size" means this dormant offseason isn’t a one-year blip. It means the team is, as Pohlad said later in the show, “going to live pretty much where we’re at right now.”
Right now, the Twins payroll, per our Back-of-the-Napkin calculations below, sits at about $122M. There is some thought that the Twins could add another player to bring the payroll closer to $130M, though that is less likely as faith grows in internal outfield options. As things sit right now, that figure breaks down as follows:
The roster picture gets a little murkier as we look forward a year to 2025. Still, thanks to guaranteed contracts, arbitration estimates, and a few reasonable assumptions like “free agents tend to leave,” as Peter Labuza wrote for us yesterday, the picture is clearer than one might expect.
That doesn’t mean it’s pretty.
If the Twins want to retain the core of their team for 2025, payroll will need to climb to around $139M next year. That projection already assumes some significant departures and replacements by cheaper options. For instance, Max Kepler, who is in the last year of a $10-million contract, leaves and is replaced by Trevor Larnach. It makes similar assumptions about Kyle Farmer ($6.3 million), Carlos Santana ($5.25 million), and Anthony DeSclafani ($4 million). But payroll still climbs $17 million over this year’s level, even if they don’t bring any free agents in.
Why? Because many of the Twins’ core players will likely get mandated raises next year through arbitration. These include Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Jhoan Duran, and Griffin Jax. Here are the projections:
A “right-sized” payroll means that not only did the Twins have almost nothing to spend this past offseason, but they could have absolutely nothing to spend next year--or, worse, less than nothing, meaning they would need to trade away a player to free up payroll, as they did with Jorge Polanco this offseason.
It’s also worth noting that this all represents, in most cases, a best-case scenario. It assumes Matt Wallner, Edouard Julien, and Royce Lewis continue to thrive; that Brooks Lee and Louis Varland can earn MLB spots despite likely starting in Triple A; and that Ober, Ryan, and Chris Paddack all stay healthy and productive enough to become fixtures in the rotation.
In short, it violates Minnesota sports fans’ implicit knowledge that “what can go wrong will go wrong.” It is implicit knowledge that was verified yesterday when ownership made clear that they were kneecapping - er, right-sizing - a team who made it to the ALDS last year.
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