The Twins Have Been Great at Replacing Stars They Trade

You have to give to get, and that reality makes high-profile trades in MLB a dangerous dance for front offices. Giving up high-caliber talent is a risky play, leading to heavy criticism and scrutiny when it goes wrong. Traded players going on to have success elsewhere is especially tough to stomach when they are filling roles and delivering value in a way that the Twins could sorely use.

The loss of David Ortiz is notorious for this reason, although it wasn't a trade (even worse, a DFA). Watching Ortiz emerge as an elite slugger and postseason hero in Boston was all the more gutting for Twins fans as their own team struggled to generate power, find a competent DH, or break through in the postseason following his departure. 

I also think back to moves like the Johan Santana and Matt Garza trades, which took place before the 2008 season. It's not just that these deals sent out coveted, premier talent and brought back (ultimately) underwhelming returns; it's that the Twins had no replacements for what Santana and Garza brought to the table. Their incomplete rotation held them back in 2008 (they missed the playoffs by one game, with Nick Blackburn as their No. 1 starter) and pitching would soon morph from a unique strength of the early Gardenhire-Era winners into a franchise-derailing deficiency. When trades contribute to turning an area of strength into one of dire weakness, that's some bad business.

That brings me to this front office and some of their boldest, most ambitious moves. The Twins have not been shy about trading distinguished, well-liked players and prospects under Derek Falvey's regime. Some of those players have gone on to have considerable success elsewhere. But what's striking to me, in looking back at some of their most notable trades, is how those talent losses have been offset by players who emerged to distinctly fill the holes left behind.

Allow me to cite a few examples of how we've seen this dynamic play out:

Luis Arráez was replaced by Edouard Julien.
Their belief in Julien, who was then an emerging prospect on the brink of big-league readiness, undoubtedly played a large role in the front office's willingness to part with Arráez in the Pablo López trade. It's almost astonishing how neatly and seamlessly that transition has taken place.

It'd be a stretch to say Arráez and Julien are the same player–they are stylistically very different–but in terms of value and function, they are essentially the same. Both are premier left-handed hitters and on-base threats atop the lineup. Both are fringy defensive second basemen who are arguably best suited for first base or DH long-term. While Arráez enjoyed a career year with his new team in 2023 (133 OPS+, .369 wOBA, 3.4 fWAR in 147 games), Julien damn near replicated that production as a rookie (130 OPS+, .366 wOBA, 2.8 fWAR in 109 games). 

Meanwhile, the player Minnesota received back in exchange for Arráez was, himself, a replacement for a key piece they'd traded two years earlier.

José Berríos was replaced by Pablo López.
This replacement, unlike Julien for Arráez, was not immediate. When the Twins opportunistically traded Berríos to Toronto at the 2021 deadline, they had no readily apparent replacement for him as a rotation-fronting workhorse starter. They felt that pain in 2022, trying to make do with a patchwork rotation held together by Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy, before executing their signature move the following offseason: Arráez for López.

Shortly after acquiring him, the Twins gave López what they were never inclined to give Berríos: a long-term contract extension. The former Marlin followed up with a first season arguably better than any in Berríos's career, including a pair of dominant playoff wins. It remains to be seen what the Twins will get out of the package they received from Toronto, but they have succeeded in their mission to replace Berríos with the pitcher we always wanted him to be: a legitimate ace who can go toe-to-toe with any opponent.

Mitch Garver was replaced by Ryan Jeffers.
Here's a fun fact: Among catchers who made at least 300 plate appearances last year, Garver ranked first in wOBA (.374). Right behind him at No. 2, with a .369 wOBA? Jeffers, of course. The Twins traded away the best-hitting catcher in baseball, and fell back on the second-best hitting catcher in baseball as their new starter.

We use the term "catcher" somewhat loosely there, because Garver made only 27 starts behind the plate last year, as injuries and defensive decline have moved him into more of a designated hitter role. Really, there was no better offensive catcher than Jeffers in 2023, and at age 26, he's only settling into his prime. 

Power-hitting catchers are extraordinarily difficult to find, but as a Twins fan, you wouldn't know it. They traded one of the best in the league and barely missed a beat.

Brusdar Graterol was replaced by Jhoan Durán.
In order to acquire Kenta Maeda ahead of the 2020 season, the Twins were forced to part with a special talent in Graterol, whose triple-digit heater ensorceled fans during a late-season debut in 2019. The young righthander was viewed as a potential flame-throwing, shutdown force in the late innings, and he has indeed become that for the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Twins have developed their own (superior?) version.

Durán, who'd been acquired two years earlier in a deadline sell-off, has amazingly become all that we hoped Graterol would be: a healthy, dominant closer with overpowering heat who thrives in high leverage. The Twins franchise went six decades without ever having guys who throw like this, and suddenly they get two in rapid succession. It's almost inconceivable. Graterol set the Twins record for fastest pitch ever, and then a few years later, we've got Duran casually pacing the major leagues in velocity.

Losing great players is never easy, but Minnesota's front office has managed to consistently soften the blow by ushering in replacements for these star talents who are at least as good, and in most these cases, I'd argue they've found something even better. From my view, it's been the defining strength that fuels their success and inspires confidence.

Why does it matter now? Because the Twins are likely deep in trade conversations as we speak. If they're aiming high in their pursuit of a viable facsimile of the 2023 version of Sonny Gray, that will mean putting some quality names on the table–maybe players or prospects whom fans hold in a similar esteem to Arráez, Berríos, Garver and Graterol. But if their history is any indication, we can feel confident that the Twins will have another star player lined up to fill the void they leave behind.

What's your level of confidence that this is a repeatable skill the Minnesota front office possesses? Does that color your opinions about their offseason options? Let's discuss it.