Twins Say Now Is Not The Time For Trevor May

While I don't disagree with the comments above, there are differences between last year and this. First and foremost, there is a new manager and pitching coach. Secondly, beyond Pelfrey, the young pitchers most of us are calling for are in line. I can't even remember the names of the guys who got starts, but they are all out of the way now. Will it make a difference? Time will tell.

Some of us thought May and Meyer were in line last year. Then along came Yohan Pino.  Kris Johnson.  Logan Darnell, etc. and the mainstay is the GM, who decides these things.

Apparently plenty of people care.  Some feel that when enduring lost and supposedly rebuilding seasons (such as last year and this year), that with having such a highly touted farm system, now is the perfect time to give some younger (and in Meyer's and May's cases, not so young) players time to see what they have.

OK,   We  can talk Meyer and May endlessly but I believe if May has a good month he will be back up.   Probably take two good months for Meyer.   Who else should be given time with the Twins?    Polanco?  in place of who?   Sano and Buxton?  After missing 2014 for all practical purposes I would not bring up either at this point and I don't think you would either.   Rosario?   Low average and zero walks this spring doesn't scream promotion to me but yes I would prefer him to what we have in center now.     Fans act like the Twins never promote anyone but Gibson, Santana, Vargas, HIcks and Arcia were hardly slow tracked.   I said all along that if they just included May in the rotation I would be happy and if they platooned Hicks and Schaefer I would be even happier.      So essentially I am not happy but that is just one move.   Not an all encompassing lack of moves.  

How many years in the minors constitutes fast tracking? Slow tracking?  Normal tracking?

Before getting promoted to MLB: 

Vargas 6 years in the minors.

Hicks 5.

Danny Santana 7.

Arcia 5.

Rosario 5 years and still not promoted (though there's been some suspensions).

Are we going to call this fast-tracking?

Study came out a couple years ago that stated the Twins were the slowest to promote their players of all MLB teams.  

'The result is that some teams develop a reputation for especially aggressive or conservative tendencies in promoting their players. When I asked Kevin Goldstein to name an organization known for being conservative in this respect, he immediately mentioned the Twins, confirming my own impression.'

If that trend is changing, may take awhile to break the perception. 

With the exception of Hicks, I believe all of these guys were international FAs, which means they were signed as 16 year olds. Making a debut at 21/22 IS fast tracking, and as for Hicks, I think the case at this point is this point is that they moved too fast with him.

You think so?  How many of those guys mentioned were 21/22 when they debuted?

The years in the minors I gave weren't from when they were signed, it's from when they debuted on the field. Most started at 17/18.  I'm not sure I'd call it fast for all those guys.  Some of those guys spent 2-3+ years in rookie ball alone.

MLB debut ages

Santana 24

Gibson 25

Vargas 24

Hicks 23

Addendum:

Mauer - 20 (4 days from being 21)

Gomez - 21

Liriano - 21

Garza - 22

Gibson was probably going to debut at 22 or 23 before TJ

Everyone has acknowledged that Gibson was a special case, and having to go back in time to find exceptions to the current situation only makes the current situation more stark in its comparative inepitude.

Not to mention one (Gomez) didn't even make his MLB debut with us :-)  And the names brought up earlier (Santana, Hicks, Vargas, Gibson) were brought up as examples of people who were fast-tracked. So if THAT is what we call fast-tracking.

Three of which premeired over a decade ago.  Gomez on the otherhand debuted with the Mets; I have serious doubts the Twins would have done the same.

I really wanted May over Milone.  But which of these guys should have debuted earlier and at what age?

Trevor May.  Came to the Twins at 22.  As a 23 year old he had a 4.51 ERA in AA, not exactly allow me to skip AAA stats.  At 24 he had a good year in AAA and made his debut, starting 10 games.

Alex Meyer.  His first year with the Twins was as a 23 year old.  He came off high A in another system as a 22 year old.  He spent a year at AA.  The most innings he had ever pitched was 129 and he was shut down with shoulder pain.  At 24 he was in AAA, on the cusp of breaking through and had a horrific stretch and was blowing through 80 pitches before the 4th inning in some instances.  Got back on track, then was shut down again with shoulder pain.  As a 25 year old he could not hit the broad side of a barn in spring training.

I am yet to find evidence the Twins delayed players repeatedly.  At best, they have rushed as many (Hicks) as guys that people think they should have brought up before (Meyer).  I think Gomez was rusehd at 22, even though he debuted someplace else.  He was not ready when he came up.

Vargas was in high A a year before he made his debut. He, like Hicks skipped AAA.  Danny Santana wasn't exactly putting up promote me multiple levels either...

How many years in the minors constitutes fast tracking? Slow tracking?  Normal tracking?

 

Before getting promoted to MLB: 

Vargas 6 years in the minors.

Hicks 5.

Danny Santana 7.

Arcia 5.

 

Rosario 5 years and still not promoted (though there's been some suspensions).

 

Are we going to call this fast-tracking?

 

Study came out a couple years ago that stated the Twins were the slowest to promote their players of all MLB teams.  

 

'The result is that some teams develop a reputation for especially aggressive or conservative tendencies in promoting their players. When I asked Kevin Goldstein to name an organization known for being conservative in this respect, he immediately mentioned the Twins, confirming my own impression.'

 

If that trend is changing, may take awhile to break the perception. 

For a period ending in 2010 the Twins had a pretty established veteran core.    The only help they got from the minors that I can recall were Casilla, Valencia and Garza.   There are probably more but I also don't recall any others that were banging the door down to get there.    Then in 2011 and 2012 the Twins started promoting all sorts of people that were doing poorly in the minors.    This makes me wonder about the timing and the criteria of the study you referenced.     What has been encouraging to me the last year or two is that we have been promoting guys that have actually been doing well in the minors.  Rosario did not have a great year after missing 50 games.   I had no problem with the Pino promotion because he was pitching great.   I think May would have been promoted earlier but for his calf injury.    Meyer is the only one I thought has earned a promotion over the last several years that has not been promoted and that was more from the Twins being over protective of his arm.    Who else has been pushing to get promoted?     We had a horrible farm system in 2011 and that was transitioned to a great one in 2013 mostly in the lower levels and we have started to see the transition and hopefully will continue to do so from a great system to a great team.    If Meyer, May and Berrios are all throwng great in July and the Twins rotation are all sitting at 4.5 plus I will share other fan's disgust.

You keep presenting evidence that supports the case to consider promoting faster.

So everytime a player has a .719 OPS at AA we should promote him?  

What about a guy with an OPS of .844 in AA (hicks), who flops?

How many variations on this sentence theme have been written over the last 3 seasons?

yeah, but NEXT year.

Plenty of evidence that both should have been called up no later than last May or June (Gardy even wanted Meyer in his pen out of Spring Training) in a year when the Twins were spinning their wheels.  Why waste those starts on guys everyone knows were not part of the future?

Two points.

First, even if they brought up Meyer and May too late, which I think is not a given, their would still be at least as many guys brought up too early than too late.  Hicks and Gomez were not ready.  I don't know anyone that would argue they were ready.

Second, in May of last year....May had just come off a 4.87 and 4.51 ERA in double A.   Then after 14 innings in Arizona (3.21 ERA) and four starts at AAA (4.97 ERA).  That was the appropriate time to promote him and by not promoting him at this point the Twins were slow?

Meyer had just pitched 70 innings at AA and was shut down with shoulder issues in 2013.  He had a 3.12 ERA in 26 fall league innings.  Meyer had a 3.69 in all of 19 innings at AAA.   That was the appropriate time?

So basically anytime a player has any time in AAA we are slow?  I just want to understand the rules.  Because it seems like no real trend exists here.  If we had guys that were ready and young, like Mauer, Liriano, Garza, etc. at 21 or 22 we would have been playing them. I look around and I don't see them.  That is the biggest issue versus being too slow IMO. 

Sano would have debuted last year if he was healthy (21).  I think Buxton will debut at 21 this year. And Berrios will probably get some starts this year at 21 as well.  I think the major story here is talent. 

I nominate this post for Threadwinner

Jokin,

Can you list the players in the last six years or so we brought up too early and which we brought up too late?  I am just curious on the math from your perspective.  It is even at best for me. 

Too early: Hicks and Gomez.

Too late: May, but by maybe a month. Nothing glaring.

Not a strong opinion either way:   Hard to look back now and say Meyer was ready.  Santana and Vargas certainly did not warrant the move by their minor league numbers but they played well.  Arcia was up at 22 and has looked promising but has a ton on both sides of the ball to work on.

May missed time early in camp because of the flu and only got 10 innings of work.  And the one thing to note on Milone from Paul Molitor "the staff was impressed by his ability to “minimize” damage.“  My gut feeling is sometime around mid-season, a couple teams with an injured starter or 2 will come a-call-in' for Milone and Pelfry.  I have faith in Molitor.

Yes, it's a bummer for May, but keep in mind that while May's control has improved, he still is prone to spells of inconsistency, where Milone has a record of being a mature control pitcher. If May continues to improve his command of the strike zone and to iron out his inconsistency, then soon he will be back in the starting rotation. I think Trevor May is going to be a workhorse starter for the Twins for several years, possibly on the same level as Kyle Gibson. It's just a matter of time, and probably not that much time.

As for Pelfrey taking over from Milone (should he falter), I get the feeling Pelfrey is done as a starter for the Twins. He wasn't that good even when he was healthy, and now he's older, and post TJ. I think the Twins are going to see what they can get out of him as a middle releiver, where he can cut loose more with his heater, not having to budget his energy like a starter. Of course I don't know if the Twins promised Pelfrey that he'd get the first shot at a rotation spot if somebody goes south, but they already know his history, and there's no reason to expect him to suddenly develop better stuff.

Pelfrey may do a spot start now and then if a somebody has a sore arm, but I think the fifth spot is destined to go to Trevor May.