Twins, Rockies Talk Tulowitzki

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Tulo has a .958 home OPS and an .819 road OPS for his career. Shocking. He's very good outside Coors Field but he's far from great.

A .819 OPS would still make him the 2nd best hitting SS in the majors this year.

That is the definition of "great"

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

You're not going to ever be able to sign a similar player for 5/94 with a 6th year option. That's Ramirez/Sandoval money from this past winter.

That's why I am not opposed to spending even more for the right player, but I don't think many big time shortstops are set to hit the market either.

If only money was involved, I'd be all over Tulo.

But it's not only money. It's $94m plus one of Sano, Buxton, or Berrios (barring any ridiculous magic tricks pulled by Ryan).

That's a price I'm not willing to pay on a team that I feel is more pretender than contender.

troyhobbs · July 21, 2015

if you have Tulo and Dozier for the next several years there isn't really a place for Polanco on the roster anyways.

If you don't have a crystal ball it's nice to have something in the cupboards since anything can happen.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

especially when you have to give up one of Buxton, Sano, or Berrios to get Tulo in the first place.

I don't understand why you even bring that up, its abundantly clear the Twins aren't going to trade one of Buxton or Sano for Tulo.

Berrios shouldn't be in the same sentence as Buxton and Sano anyways. He is a nice prospect, but no where near what Sano and Buxton is/were/are.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Gibson, Hughes, May could be a halfway decent playoff rotation. How do they have a huge question at DH? Have you not seen that Sano kid they called up?

OF, I wouldn't call those huge question marks, if one of Hicks or Rosario start to struggle you have Arcia and Buxton ready to step in. Catcher can be fixed by trading a PTNBL type for AJ.

Sano has a sprained ankle and 53 MLB PAs. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The kid will be good but let's see how he does when MLB pitchers start throwing him nothing but junk.

Gibson, Hughes, and May are a completely underwhelming playoff rotation. Couple that rotation with the "OMG, please pitch a CGSO" bullpen and you have a one-and-done recipe.

RealTwinsFan357 · July 21, 2015

Do realize that most of his road splits come at other NL west parks, which I think are all pitcher-friendly. Target field is much more neutral

Otto von Ballpark · July 21, 2015

If only money was involved, I'd be all over Tulo.

But it's not only money. It's $94m plus one of Sano, Buxton, or Berrios (barring any ridiculous magic tricks pulled by Ryan).

That's a price I'm not willing to pay on a team that I feel is more pretender than contender.

I'm with Dave here. Berrios is a very nice prospect, but he probably doesn't belong in the same group as Sano or Buxton (very few pitching prospects probably do).

Jham · July 21, 2015

I hate to break it to you but both Mauer and Perkins are under long term contract.

Disagree, Mauer is signed though '18, Perkins through '17. Meaning if we want to re-sign them or trade them, it should happen next season for Perk, or the season after for Joe. Tulo is signed through 2020 at least. THAT is a long term deal. Dozier is signed through '18. We have pitchers coming off the books like crazy during that stretch, but will likely need arms to replace them. Gibson could get a huge payday. I'm not sure Meyer, May, Milone, Gonsalves, Hu, Berrios, and Stewart will ever be as good as the current rotation. Maybe, but odds are we will need to spend. By the end of Tulo's contract, we will likely be looking to extend Sano and or Buxton to giant deals, and Berrios, May, Milone, etc. might have earned a large contract by then as well.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

I don't understand why you even bring that up, its abundantly clear the Twins aren't going to trade one of Buxton or Sano for Tulo.
Berrios shouldn't be in the same sentence as Buxton and Sano anyways. He is a nice prospect, but no where near what Sano and Buxton is/were/are.

It's about opportunity cost. The Twins need Berrios because their rotation isn't young enough or good enough yet and after Jose, there's no help on the horizon for at least 12 months, probably more like 24 months.

The Twins also have a handful of decent, though unspectacular, shortstops. One of them should be able to fill the void for a year or two.

If we were talking about a good catcher, Berrios is definitely on the table because the Twins have other starting pitching prospects but absolutely zero legitimate catching prospects.

But for a 30 year old shortstop? No, I don't think that's a good use of resources. Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins and there's zero chance the catching situation will improve in 2015 or 2016 unless Pinto magically stops being awful behind the dish.

So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.

tobi0040 · July 21, 2015

If we want to be concerned about potential "decline" as Tulo ages, I understand. There should be no concern about the money. As weird as it is to say outloud, the Twins have more money than they need to make a deal for a $20M/year guy and I'd rather see them take on the entire salary expense than add an extra high-level prospect to the deal in order to get the Rockies to chip in cash.

The numbers here are not perfect but should be within a ball-park. We have all these threads out there suggesting we should extend guys right now. Sano, Gibson, and Plouffe the most common. We had some really high numbers thrown out already for Buxton and I am sure we are a year or two away from the chatter about extending Berrios and May.

With that top of mind, I come up with about $95M in commitments to 7 players if we add Tulo. Most that go out 3-4 years (5 for Tulo). Save Dozier and Hughes, these guys are all on the wrong side of 30 already. So I would hate to be in a position that we can't afford to lock up someone like Sano, Berrios, or Buxton if they prove to be a stud through their prime becaue we are paying a bunch of 34-35 year olds

2016 Mauer (23), Tulo (20), Nolasco (14), Ervin (14), Hughes (12) Dozier (7.5), Perkins (5). $95M for 7 players.

I have a bias against one trade for one player that blows through farm assets and payroll assets at the same time. We should think about what a 5 year $100M contract on the free agent market next winter would look like. Because you can spend the money there without giving up a Gibson, Berrios, etc.

Additionally, Tulo is not a SS for that entire contract and his road .819 OPS will decline.

Edited July 21, 2015 by tobi0040

Otto von Ballpark · July 21, 2015

So go find a catcher. Chances are it might not even cost you Berrios. You might be able to get it done for Kepler + stuff. You make the same net team improvement but you get to keep your "big three" in the process and you're not on the hook for nearly $100m during a decline phase.

Much easier said than done.

Otto von Ballpark · July 21, 2015

2016 Mauer (23), Tulo (20), Nolasco (14), Ervin (14), Hughes (12) Dozier (7.5), Perkins (5). $95M for 7 players.

We can't let past bad contracts prevent us from adding good players, though. If we are seriously debating acquiring Troy Tulowitzki, we should not shrug and say "if only we hadn't signed Nolasco..."

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Much easier said than done.

Absolutely, but it's not much (if any) more difficult than trying to negotiate a trade for Tulo.

Catchers are out there, the Twins just have to make sure they're first in line at the discussion table.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

If only Mauer wasn't......you could slide Tulo to 1B when Gordon is ready. That would be nice.

Mauer's current contract will likely be up by the time Gordon would be ready.

The more likely scenario would be that Sano only sticks at 3rd for a few years before being moved to 1B or RF and Tulo moving to 3rd in 4 or 5 years.

Otto von Ballpark · July 21, 2015

Disagree, Mauer is signed though '18, Perkins through '17.

We have a team option on Perkins for 2018.

Mauer and Perkins will both be 36 years old in the 2019 season. I doubt we have to worry much about extending them for that season. They might be lucky to finish their current contracts as effective players (particularly Mauer).

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Trading for Tulo doesn't effect the Twins chances of signing Sano/Buxton long term. The Tulo contract would be done by the time Sano and Buxton would reach Free agency. Also by that time the Nolasco, Santana, Mauer, etc contracts would be off the books as well, most of them would be up by the time Dozier hits free agency as well.

toosweet64 · July 21, 2015

My two cents from my (fake) GM chair: The Rockies have two options in my opinion: 1) Pay some of the contract and ask for better prospects OR 2) Pay none and take lesser prospects. I doubt they'll get both. From the Rockies standpoint, the Mets have much better pitching to offer and can easily pay Tulo. If the Twins were to get involved (with the Rockies maybe paying 23-30% of the remaining contract), it would take at least Berrios and probably Kepler. I doubt they'd accept Arcia over Kepler based on the defensive shortcomings of Arcia. Lastly, I feel like giving up Berrios is likely just fine. Scouts have talked about his straight, flat fastball and flyball/HR tendencies at the MLB level. Berrios likely profiles as a #2 starter long-term for us if Target Field truely is considered a "deep park" and I'm believing less in that day by day. Berrios at Coors field likely would not go over well.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Tulo may be a 5 WAR player but a 2 WAR catcher has the same net effect for the Minnesota Twins

Uh actually no it doesn't Brock not even close. Unless you claim that Suzuki is a negative 2.0 WAR player or something, which he isn't, even with his garbage year at the plate he is only on pace for -0.5.

Meanwhile:
Santana is currently a - (negative) 0.8 WAR player

Escobar is currently a -(negaivte)0.5 WAR player

So really a 5 WAR SS would have a net effect of a 6 WAR player.

So yeah, next time you are going to make things up try for something a tad less preposterous.

Edited July 21, 2015 by DaveW

Otto von Ballpark · July 21, 2015

Absolutely, but it's not much (if any) more difficult than trying to negotiate a trade for Tulo.

Catchers are out there, the Twins just have to make sure they're first in line at the discussion table.

I think a Tulo trade should be easier. With the money owed and their record, the Rockies have some incentive to move him (not give him away, but motivation to actually consummate a deal).

There are only a handful of catchers that meet your criteria out there, and their teams don't necessarily have strong incentive to move them. You might have to give up the same players you'd give up for Tulo to make something happen today, and you'd likely get a lesser player than Tulo in return.

jun · July 21, 2015

I don't think they can trade Gibson in the middle of a playoff race, I would give up Berrios +Polanco+Vargas+Nolasco for Tulo.
Or May+Polanco+Kepler+Nolasco for Tulo
The idea is you toss in Nolasco and don't have to ask the Rockies for money back.

It would be silly to give up the future for one player. I don't care who it is. Good pitching always beats good hitting. It would be wise to save as much pitching as you can. I would not give up Berrios and Kepler. They are both considered as part of the future.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

It would be silly to give up the future for one player. I don't care who it is. Good pitching always beats good hitting. It would be wise to save as much pitching as you can. I would not give up Berrios and Kepler. They are both considered as part of the future.

I would agree if Tulo was a rental, but trading for Tulo also makes him a significant part of the future (likely as one of your top 3 bats in the lineup for the next 4-5 years)

The Twins have an abundance of corner OF/1B/DH types in the system and at the majors who are cost controlled, losing Kepler isn't going to hurt. Berrios is a nice prospect but he is far from perfect, his height alone and its effect on his fastball keeps him from being an "ace" type IMO. He likely ends up somewhere between a May and Gibson in terms of talent.

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Do realize that most of his road splits come at other NL west parks, which I think are all pitcher-friendly. Target field is much more neutral

That's not really the problem with players coming out of Coors.

It's the batting average. Larry Walker had this same issue.

Tulo's home/road BA difference: .047

Moving him out of the NL West is not going to improve his batting average.

Hell, last season the Rockies team had almost a full .100 batting average difference in their home/road splits. This season it's still around .070-.080.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

At the end of the day you are talking about a guy who is on his way to the hall of fame as a SS who isn't that far removed from his prime (he doesn't turn 31 til after the season), if you are going to take a risk on anyone, he is the one to do it for. The odds that any of Polanco, May, Berrios, Vargas, Kepler ever play at a hall of fame level are so incredibly small that the risk is more than worth it. (I absolutely wouldnt give up Sano or Buxton, the two guys that do project to be potential hall of fame types if all breaks right)

Brock Beauchamp · July 21, 2015

Uh actually no it doesn't Brock not even close. Unless you claim that Suzuki is a negative 2.0 WAR player or something, which he isn't, even with his garbage year at the plate he is only on pace for -0.5.

Meanwhile:
Santana is currently a - (negative) 0.8 WAR player
Escobar is currently a -(negaivte)0.5 WAR player
So really a 5 WAR SS would have a net effect of a 6 WAR player.

So yeah, next time you are going to make things up try for something a tad less preposterous.

Santana should not be the starting shortstop.

Escobar should not be in left field, which is where a large portion of that negative WAR comes from. 2/3rds of Escobar's 2015 innings have come in LF, which is beyond aggravating. He has the equivalent of about 15 games at short this season (begins pounding face on desk because just typing that number is so aggravating).

Last season, Escobar was a 2.5 WAR player in 2/3rds of a season.

So, yeah. Absolutely preposterous, Dave.

jorgenswest · July 21, 2015

There is reason to be excited about the Twins as they move towards 2017. By then key young players will have hundreds of games under their belts. They could really mess that up committing to Tulowitzki.

Look at his defensive metrics. You may not buy the metric in terms of how it equates to runs but you can see the steady decline since his rookie year. This year he is below average. By 2017 or possibly earlier he won't be a shortstop. Where are they going to play him and his big contract. He could easily join Joe Mauer making 20 million for ordinary offense from a corner position. They will also still have the burden of Hughes, Santana and Nolasco's contracts and performance from them that might equate to a fifth starter or worse.

At the same time they have key young players entering their prime, they will have huge commitments to decline phase players handcuffing the front office and ensuring the team will be mediocre.

The Rockies need to find a team foolish enough to take this contract. I hope it isn't the Twins.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

That's not really the problem with players coming out of Coors.

It's the batting average. Larry Walker had this same issue.

Tulo's home/road BA difference: .047

Moving him out of the NL West is not going to improve his batting average.

Hell, last season the Rockies team had almost a full .100 batting average difference in their home/road splits. This season it's still around .070-.080.

Lol, comparing him to Walker who played like 10 years ago....

I will mention again, his .819 OPS (road) still makes him the 2nd best hitting SS this year, and top 1,2 or 3 in pretty much each of the last 5 years as well.

That also doesn't assume that the majority of all players hit better at home then on the road, so his target field splits could be expected to actually be a bit higher than an already great .819.

Willihammer · July 21, 2015

Stopped eating dairy. The guy who can't stay off the DL cut milk out of his diet.

Good luck with that, Tulo.

Edited July 21, 2015 by Willihammer

Loosey · July 21, 2015

Realistically how many more years is Tulo still a SS? 2-3 years tops? The idea of Tulo is intriguing but I say the Twins roll with what we have right now and not give up any top prospects or Major League level players.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Santana should not be the starting shortstop.

Escobar should not be in left field, which is where a large portion of that negative WAR comes from. 2/3rds of Escobar's 2015 innings have come in LF, which is beyond aggravating. He has the equivalent of about 15 games at short this season (begins pounding face on desk because just typing that number is so aggravating).

Last season, Escobar was a 2.5 WAR player in 2/3rds of a season.

So, yeah. Absolutely preposterous, Dave.

Negative 15.1 UZR/150 at SS in 2015, I mean, I guess if you wanna argue that Escobar who has no range, has a negative WAR, a terrible UZR this year at SS is the answer, then that's your right. I guess that makes you a more knowledgeable baseball mind then Molitor who clearly knows that Escobar isn't an every day SS answer.

DaveW · July 21, 2015

Realistically how many more years is Tulo still a SS? 2-3 years tops? The idea of Tulo is intriguing but I say the Twins roll with what we have right now and not give up any top prospects or Major League level players.

He is only 30, there are plenty of SS that are still effective into their mid 30's, I would say 5-6 years tops, with 4-5 years more likely.

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If the Twins sell at the trade deadline, should they trade Trevor Larnach?