Twins Mailbag: Extensions, 2020 Line-Up, Darvish, Ohtani

Your responses to Questions 2 & 4 indicate a bias/preference for Kepler over Rosario.

Question 2

With free agency and other factors, it’s hard to project out to 2020. If I’m using internal options, here are my projected 2020 Twins Opening Day starters:
C: Mitch Garver, 1B: Miguel Sano, 2B: Nick Gordon, SS: Royce Lewis, OF: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, DH: Brian Dozier

Question 4

I feel like there are few untouchable prospects in the Twins farm system. Royce Lewis might be the lone player I would categorize as untouchable. That being said, I think Nick Gordon would have to be at the center of a package for these pitchers. A top level pitcher would also likely be needed to add to the mix. Some names could be Fernando Romero or Lewis Thorpe. Eddie Rosario is another name I would throw into a potential deal.

I'm a big fan of Kepler, but if you're willing to trade Rosario, why not be willing to trade Kepler? The age difference is about 1.5 years, so if that's the basis for the trade willingness/2020 lineup, OK - Kepler will be younger in 2020. For comparison, here are their career numbers. They are presented year by year, but if you want to compare age by age, you can shift Kepler's stats up one line mentally. I'm just curious as I think Rosario has been and will be better than Kepler (though I have hopes for somewhat of a Kepler breakout in 2018 just as Rosario broke out in 2017).

Year Age Level PA BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

Rosario/Kepler

2010 18 Rookie 213 16 28 .294 .343 .438 .781 / 17 Rookie 153 13 27 .286 .346 .343 .689

2011 19 Rookie 298 27 60 .337 .397 .670 1.068 / 18 Rookie 221 23 54 .262 .347 .366 .714
2012 20 A, Rookie 449 32 71 .299 .347 .499 .846 / 19 Rookie 269 27 33 .297 .387 .539 .925
2013 21 AA, A+ 544 38 96 .302 .350 .460 .810 / 20 A 263 24 43 .237 .312 .424 .736
2014 22 AA, A+ 370 21 73 .243 .286 .387 .674 / 21 A+ 407 34 62 .264 .333 .393 .726
2015 23 AAA 100 5 17 .242 .280 .379 .659 / 22 AA, A+ 508 69 68 .318 .410 .520 .930
2016 24 AAA 169 7 25 .319 .343 .538 .881 / 23 AAA 128 16 14 .282 .367 .455 .822

2015 23 MIN 474 15 118 .267 .289 .459 .748 / 22 MIN 7 0 3 .143 .143 .143 .286
2016 24 MIN 354 12 91 .269 .295 .421 .716 / 23 MIN 447 42 93 .235 .309 .424 .734
2017 25 MIN 589 8 35 106 .290 .328 .507 .836 / 24 MIN 568 47 114 .243 .312 .425 .737

With free agency and other factors, it’s hard to project out to 2020. If I’m using internal options, here are my projected 2020 Twins Opening Day starters:

C: Mitch Garver, 1B: Miguel Sano, 2B: Nick Gordon, SS: Royce Lewis, OF: Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, DH: Brian Dozier

Everyone knows Who's on First but I Don't Know your Third Baseman's name?

Quote and post your answer

(kajillion TwinsDaily points for those with the only correct answer)

Your responses to Questions 2 & 4 indicate a bias/preference for Kepler over Rosario.

 

I'm a big fan of Kepler, but if you're willing to trade Rosario, why not be willing to trade Kepler? The age difference is about 1.5 years, so if that's the basis for the trade willingness/2020 lineup, OK - Kepler will be younger in 2020. For comparison, here are their career numbers. They are presented year by year, but if you want to compare age by age, you can shift Kepler's stats up one line mentally. I'm just curious as I think Rosario has been and will be better than Kepler (though I have hopes for somewhat of a Kepler breakout in 2018 just as Rosario broke out in 2017).

 

Year Age Level PA BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS

Rosario/Kepler

2010 18 Rookie 213 16 28 .294 .343 .438 .781 / 17 Rookie 153 13 27 .286 .346 .343 .689

2011 19 Rookie 298 27 60 .337 .397 .670 1.068 / 18 Rookie 221 23 54 .262 .347 .366 .714
2012 20 A, Rookie 449 32 71 .299 .347 .499 .846 / 19 Rookie 269 27 33 .297 .387 .539 .925
2013 21 AA, A+ 544 38 96 .302 .350 .460 .810 / 20 A 263 24 43 .237 .312 .424 .736
2014 22 AA, A+ 370 21 73 .243 .286 .387 .674 / 21 A+ 407 34 62 .264 .333 .393 .726
2015 23 AAA 100 5 17 .242 .280 .379 .659 / 22 AA, A+ 508 69 68 .318 .410 .520 .930
2016 24 AAA 169 7 25 .319 .343 .538 .881 / 23 AAA 128 16 14 .282 .367 .455 .822

 

2015 23 MIN 474 15 118 .267 .289 .459 .748 / 22 MIN 7 0 3 .143 .143 .143 .286
2016 24 MIN 354 12 91 .269 .295 .421 .716 / 23 MIN 447 42 93 .235 .309 .424 .734
2017 25 MIN 589 8 35 106 .290 .328 .507 .836 / 24 MIN 568 47 114 .243 .312 .425 .737

Another kajillion Twins Daily poster/mod/owner-operator who comes up with an easy way for people to post statistics.  I appreciate when people use them to support arguments, and I've learned much over the years about statistical analysis from many of you fine folks.  However, and not picking on scottz, just using this as a common example--I can't read those numbers and get any meaning out of it without smoke coming out my ears.  Looks like code to me.

Get on that in your spare time, fellas.

Another kajillion Twins Daily poster/mod/owner-operator who comes up with an easy way for people to post statistics. I appreciate when people use them to support arguments, and I've learned much over the years about statistical analysis from many of you fine folks. However, and not picking on scottz, just using this as a common example--I can't read those numbers and get any meaning out of it without smoke coming out my ears. Looks like code to me.

 

Get on that in your spare time, fellas.

I don't feel picked on. Even I hated it as soon as I posted it. The screen where I was entering info to post didn't wrap the lines so I thought maybe it wouldn't be too cryptic. But once I hit posted, everything wrapped. Blech.

If you want to read it, you could Copy the data into excel, sort text to columns, space delimited. Or not. Who cares. Other than me, as I spent 20 minutes on that post. LIFE IS MEANINGLESS.

OK, I feel better now.

I don't feel picked on. Even I hated it as soon as I posted it. The screen where I was entering info to post didn't wrap the lines so I thought maybe it wouldn't be too cryptic. But once I hit posted, everything wrapped. Blech.

If you want to read it, you could Copy the data into excel, sort text to columns, space delimited. Or not. Who cares. Other than me, as I spent 20 minutes on that post. LIFE IS MEANINGLESS.

OK, I feel better now.

Not sure this makes that much data any better

Everyone knows Who's on First but I Don't Know your Third Baseman's name?

 

Quote and post your answer

 

(kajillion TwinsDaily points for those with the only correct answer)

The correct answer is: Yes

https://www.youtube.com/embed/kTcRRaXV-fg

All I want for Christmas is Ohtani.

Well what's this?  Strib article, what you call burying the lede:

Twins add trainer

The Twins have hired a new assistant trainer. Masa Abe joins the club after spending seven seasons with Arizona, the past two as the trainer for Class AAA Reno. Abe also was Team Japan’s trainer during the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

Good hire, I'd say.

Thanks for stoking the hot stove since the Twins are doing very little to get it warm. Lots of comments, no action, yet. I may be the only one on this page who does not want the Twins to pursue the two sure-to-be overpaid free agent pitchers.

 

I look at Seth's top prospects and see two inexpensive, young, potentially long term starters who should be worked in this year and two more that could be ready the year after. Let them work us forward.

 

Our team moved forward without great pitching so lets teach out pitchers to use their own abilities to the max. We now have an additional pitching consultant to go with a pitching coach who will soon be joined by a minor league pitching coach so evidently we are setting up either a bureaucracy or a system to get the most of our young pitchers so keep the overpaid FA signings to a minimum and spend on our own talent.

 

After posting this I found this report in Bleacher with lots of ideas for dumping salaries. I look at the list and the players and the idea that strikes me is - why not avoid the bad contract to begin with? Yes there can be injuries and other problems that arise, but in the long run, investing in youth has a much better return on investment than any of the FA finds that are already in their thirties. Report http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2746082-salary-dumping-szn-trade-ideas-for-mlbs-worst-contracts?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=mlb

 

The one repeated question for Cody is who is at 3B in 2020. I guess it must be Escobar! But I am guessing it will be Polanco.

I assume Darvish is one of your two sure to be overpaid FA's, who is the other one?

I think that were will be many - they are so starved for pitchers they will overpay for Arrieta too. He has had a nice peak, but I do not see him finishing well with any multi-year contract. Here are the pitchers who are free agents - http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/starting-pitcher/

 

But I also believe Ohtani is also going to get way too much money because the narrative outweighs the actual proof of his talent level. We have seen a lot of "great" Japanese players and Korean Players signed over the years. And finally I will say on the trade market that Cole and Odorizzi will command more than they should despite their off years.

 

This is crazy money and a feeding frenzy.

The most Ohtani can get is $3.5 million.

Plus the posting money to the club - a big commitment of resources

It's peanuts. We're not talking about $200 million mega deal, or even $60 million mid tier.

I think you are vastly underestimating how good of a pitcher he is. We'll see who's right, I guess.

Interested in your rationale for Tyler Jay making MLB by end of 2018. His stats at High A, around 3.00 ERA have been solid, but AA ERA of around 5.50 doesn’t seem to warrant the optimism. It may be that injuries have been the cause, but if so it’s rare that those things disappear. I hope you are right and everything lines up for him in terms of health and success on the mound.

I am not underestimating how good he is. I do not know how good he is. I hope he is terrific because I like good baseball, but I do not like signing him like this.

Well you are alone on an island, and I commend you for that.

But, I disagree vehemently. There doesn't seem to be any question about how good of a pitcher he is. This isn't like signing a 16 year old, or drafting an 18 year old. This isn't a matter of betting on tools or stuff. He's ready to step into any teams rotation as a #1 or #2 starter. Of course anything can happen, but in the same sense that anything can happen with any player - whether FA or homegrown.

As Chief said, there isn't a single GM in baseball that would say no at his minimal price tag.

Possibly due to public out cry and unfair firing practices here's one organization that seems to have Mike's back

https://sports.yahoo.com/marlins-not-willing-pay-shohei-ohtani-035924943.html

Twins odds just improved by 0.115%

2020- Where is Rosario going? And Sano moving to 1B? You're also missing a starter at 3B