Twins Fantasy Fix (4/9): Polanco on the Horizon

Welcome back to Twins Fantasy Fix! The season is underway and the Twins have gotten off to a good start, which includes a thrilling walk-off win in the home opener thanks to newcomer Kyle Farmer. The team looks like a goldmine for fantasy pitching but there are still some questions about the offense. Let’s look at which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Jorge Polanco
Expected return: Mid-April
Polanco missed most of spring training with a left knee issue, and the Twins are being understandably cautious with their second baseman. He played into the seventh inning of his second rehab game Saturday with Low-A Fort Myers, going 1-for-2 with a double and two walks while he was in there.

Polanco is eligible to be reinstated from the injured list at any time, but it remains to be seen if he plays in a few more rehab games. He’ll be the regular second baseman when he returns and has proven to be a strong fantasy performer in the past, though Nick Gordon (more on him in a bit) and Farmer should continue to see playing time to allow Polanco some rest days as he eases back into action.

Max Kepler
Expected return: TBD
Kepler hit the 10-day injured list Saturday due to right knee tendinitis. He was considered day-to-day heading into the game, so he might only be out for the minimum amount of time, though more details should emerge next week. Matt Wallner was called up from Triple-A, and he had been crushing the ball for the Saints, so he could be a nice short-term fantasy play. On top of that, Joey Gallo was removed from Friday’s game and sat out Saturday and Sunday due to right side soreness, which could give Wallner another pathway to playing time.

Twins Fantasy Player Trends
Stock Rising: Trevor Larnach
ESPN ownership: 8%
I went with Pablo Lopez in this space last week and could have done the same again this week, but in the interest of mixing things up, I decided to highlight Larnach. There are some positive signs here from a fantasy perspective. He’s started every game so far, which included a tough matchup against Miami lefty Jesus Luzardo on Wednesday.

Not only has Larnach started every game, he’s also regularly been placed in a prominent lineup spot. He’s batted fourth or higher in eight of those nine games. Larnach has parlayed that into solid production with a .975 OPS, a home run, five runs scored and seven RBI entering Sunday. He might drop in the order when Polanco and Alex Kiriloff return, but it seems like the Twins view Larnach as one of their key offensive pieces.

There’s a good chance he’s available in your league, and he won’t break the bank in daily formats, either. Now might be a good time to pick Larnach up before anyone else in your league does – he has the tools to put together a breakout campaign.

Gordon could see more time in the outfield moving forward like he did last season, though the Twins now have Gallo, Michael A. Taylor and a healthy Larnach in the fold. Byron Buxton will also likely play in center in the near future. That makes the Minnesota outfield look fairly crowded as well. There might be a short-term boost for Gordon with Kepler and Gallo dealing with issues, but don’t count on Gordon for much more value moving forward.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes

• 3 Games vs Chicago White Sox (Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito)
• 4 Games at New York Yankees (Jhony Brito, Nester Cortes, Domingo German, Gerrit Cole)

Buckle up, Twins fans. It’s a full week for your favorite team, and the dreaded trip to Yankee Stadium is coming up. From a fantasy perspective, Twins hitters have some added appeal due to playing every day, though some of the pitching matchups look tricky.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers 
Kenta Maeda and Pablo Lopez are both set to start twice. The matchups could be challenging, as the White Sox and Yankees are each scoring five runs per game at the moment. Of course, Maeda and Lopez have also looked sharp in the early going, particularly Lopez, who has a 0.73 ERA across two starts with 16 strikeouts in 12.1 innings. Trusting a pitcher at Yankee Stadium can always be a bit scary, but with the way Minnesota starters have opened this season, it’s hard not to keep rolling with them. Lopez is already owned in most leagues, but if Maeda is available, I think rolling the dice on his two starts makes sense.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Just like last week, when the Twins had to face Luzardo and Sandy Alcantara in Miami, this week opens with some potentially tricky matchups. Cease in particular looks daunting, as he’s carrying a 1.59 ERA and has 18 strikeouts across 11 1/3  innings. 

Lynn and Giolito are talented pitchers but both have struggled in the early going with matching ERAs of 9.00. Your exposure against them depends on how soon you think they get back on track. Both have mostly done well against Twins hitters historically, though they’re currently allowing lefties to hit better than .400 in the early going, so the likes of Larnach and Gallo (if fully healthy) could be primed for big games.

In New York, the matchups against Cortes and Cole are the scariest, but there could be opportunities in the other two games. Brito just made his MLB debut on April 2, and while he looked good, young pitchers are known to be volatile. German, meanwhile, has a 7.71 ERA in the early going and has surrendered two home runs across 4 2/3 innings. He allowed 11 home runs in only 72 1/3 innings last season, so this could be a spot for Minnesota’s power hitters to thrive, especially at a ballpark that is friendly to home-run hitters.

This also feels like a Carlos Correa week to me. The shortstop is off to a slow start, and his advanced hitting metrics including hard-hit rate are down. However, his track record suggests things should turn around in a big way, it’s just a matter of when. Correa also has six career home runs at Yankee Stadium in only 18 games there. Don’t panic in season-long leagues, and in daily formats, I love the idea of buying while his salary is low. The breakout will come. 

Who has been Minnesota’s fantasy MVP so far? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus share your thoughts on fantasy baseball in general.