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    The Time Has Come to Place Byron Buxton on the Injured List


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins and Byron Buxton had a strategy: They would keep the banged-up star away from yet another trip to the injured list by feeding him a steady regimen of rest. 

    One can argue the merits of this plan up until now. But as a roster crunch ensues and his performance continues to suffer, this feels like the right time to give Buck a break.

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Last week, the Twins played games on all seven days and Buxton was out of the starting lineup for three of them. This included two days off in a three-day span (Monday and Wednesday), and Sunday ahead of an off day. Granted, there are mitigating circumstances to account for – he played both ends of a doubleheader on Tuesday, and the team was wrapping an exhausting stretch on Sunday – but they're clearly sticking to their plan of plentiful respites.

    The plan is working, to an extent: Buxton has avoided the injured list through two months. That's a big victory in and of itself. But he's also doing little to contribute right now, and hamstringing the roster by so frequently being a healthy(ish) scratch.

    Back in mid-May, when many were debating over the team's handling of Buxton and his frequency of rest days, I tweeted my point-of-view on the matter: If anything, the Twins weren't being cautious enough. When your most important player is wincing through knee and hip ailments, the safe bet is simply to place him on the shelf for a while to heal.

    Since the date of that tweet (May 16th), Buxton has slashed .155/.254/.241 with one home run and three RBIs. After producing a staggering 1.5 Wins Above Replacement in his first month's worth of games, his WAR over the past month sits at 0.0 – a dead-on replacement level player. Those words feel extremely weird to even type out in connection with Buxton.

    Slumps happen in baseball. That's the nature of the game. When you go on a tear like Buxton did to open the season, a corresponding downswing is to be expected. Moreover, his underlying metrics haven't taken a worrisome nosedive or anything. I'm not suggesting Buxton is unplayable right now or that there's a dire need to keep him out of the lineup.

    At the same time, it's impossible not to believe his physical state is negatively affecting his play. The sheer magnitude of his slump, along with the occasional grimace and gingerly step, make clear that he's hampered. When asked a couple weeks ago whether his knee injury was improving, Buxton offered a tepid "no comment." He also, unsurprisingly, expressed a desire to stay off the IL.

    Since then his numbers have improved a bit – highlighted by Friday night's game, which featured a double and a homer. But he still doesn't look right. He's still taking as much time off as ever. And the Twins are facing some tough roster decisions ahead.

    Max Kepler will be activated when the Twins return home to open a three-game series against the Yankees. It sounds like Carlos Correa will be activated soon after. Okay, easy enough to make room for those two guys – simply send down Mark Contreras and Jermaine Palacios, who were called up specifically to replace them. 

    But what about making room for Alex Kirilloff? He has found his swing once again in Triple-A, where he's slashing a ridiculous .387/.477/.693 since being optioned in mid-May. Crucially, the power has resurfaced, with Kirilloff mashing four doubles and five home runs in his past eight games for the Saints to earn International League Player of the Week honors. There is simply no reason to leave him in the minors right now.

    But who gets ousted from the position-player ranks to enable such a move? Trevor Larnach, who was originally swapped in for Kirilloff, certainly isn't going anywhere – he's been one of the team's best players since getting called up.

    How about Gilberto Celestino? It would make sense logistically, but are you really gonna send down a kid who's batting .350 with an .816 OPS?

    Nick Gordon? He's been playing pretty regularly and pretty well, with a .265/.308/.490 slash line in his past 15 games, and sending him down would mean losing him on waivers since he's out of options.

    José Miranda? He would've been the obvious candidate a couple of weeks ago but he too has begun to find his stroke, with a .361/.378/.722 slash line dating back to May 20th. His right-handed power feels too important to lose at this moment.

    Now, maybe this takes care of itself for the time being, because Kyle Garlick suffered a hamstring pull on Saturday that could lead to him landing on the IL. But I do think that sort of distracts from the point, which is that it would make sense from multiple perspectives to shut Buxton down for a while, sort through the roster crunch, and then bring him back in a couple week. During that span, the crunch figures to work itself out. Maybe Celestino or Miranda start slumping, or Kirilloff's bat doesn't take in the big leagues. Most likely, someone else will get hurt. By the time Buxton comes back, he'll hopefully be healthier, requiring a bit less time off, and ready to get back to mashing.

    Buck won't like it, but he seems to be aligned with the Twins on this critical directive: doing whatever it takes to ensure he stays on the field throughout the second half and is able to be there for the team when it matters most.

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    On 6/6/2022 at 5:36 PM, ashbury said:

    He's had above league average OPS the past week and a half, so let's fix that by cherry picking away the good part?

    Yo, sup y'all?     ??

     

     

    / disclaimer: any social literacy present in this post was provided by son Stashbury

    On 6/6/2022 at 7:35 PM, Nick Nelson said:

    He's literally had one good offensive game in a month and I'm the one cherrypicking. Come on now. 

    My comment to your article was a little flippant, but was intended to be constructive.  There was no further data at the time and I had said what I wanted to say, so I left it.  Today Buxton had an o-fer, so maybe it is an okay time to circle back to this example of data analysis.  By no means is my purpose to do an "I told you so" (as some seem to want) about Buxton's breakout right after this article came out, because I made no such prediction.  But I want to revisit the tangent about his week's statistics prior to the article.

    No one, a week ago or now, disputes that Buxton had had a terrible several weeks following his injury.  An article looking back at the Twins' decision not to put him on the IL earlier in May could have been interesting, albeit second-guessing (which isn't always wrong to do). 

    But the topic was whether to IL him "now" (a week ago).  The only thing a batting record can tell us about that question is a portion of his most recent games.  And that's hard because Small Sample Size is very risky to predict from, as we all understand.  You did look at this small sample, and to your credit you let it start when Buxton's string of o-fers ended.  But he'd had one good offensive game in a week - the month was no longer relevant if we were looking for evidence he was healing.  And his other games in that span were not a complete loss.  Good hitters can have a week like that even when they are 100% - as I pointed out, his OPS was even a tiny bit above league average for the period.

    Sometimes data needs to be sifted, and outliers removed.  If Nick Gordon had been the topic of discussion, the game you wanted to discard from those recent ones might have made sense - that didn't look like a "Nick Gordon at his best" game, as it was too good - it would have been just a fluke in Gordon's season.  But this was Buxton, and that one game a couple Fridays ago was not beyond his ability when he's going good.  Tossing out that game was dangerous for a statistician to do without a very good rationale for doing so

    Yours was a thought-provoking article.  But overlooking the one bit of contradictory evidence, that might suggest our favorite center fielder had found himself, was a mistake.  There's the old turn of phrase about "separating the wheat from the chaff."  You did that when you looked at Buxton's batting log.  And then, through bad luck or whatever, you threw away the statistical wheat, and continued to dwell on the chaff.

    That was the point behind my quick comment.  I really think there is something to learn from this one.  And yes, if Buxton had gone an empty 3-for16 after your article, which could about equally well have happened, I probably wouldn't have thought to write this rejoinder now. :)  But I still should have.

     




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