Do the Twins Have Baseball’s Best Bullpen?

Since Derek Falvey took over as Minnesota’s president of baseball operations, he has only deviated once when spending money on relief help. Minnesota has stuck to one-year deals with relievers in almost all cases, and some of their greatest success stories have been diamonds in the rough.

Rocco Baldelli was able to use Brock Stewart in high-leverage situations a year ago after he was out of the majors since 2019. The tale could have repeat itself in 2024 with Justin Topa replicating his 2023, and the continued emergence of Kody Funderburk playing out. Also, Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, and Caleb Thielbar are stories of internal development.

By many metrics, the Twins bullpen was largely average a season ago. They checked in 21st in fWAR and 15th in DRA-. The group did post the 9th-best K/9 in the sport, and their walk rate was the 12th-best. The high-leverage arms used in late innings were the highlight, and while the bottom of the group rotated through, success stories like Emilio Pagán also provided some depth. This season Fangraphs projects the unit for the third-highest reliever output by fWAR.

After dealing Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, arguably the best current player Minnesota got back was reliever Justin Topa. The addition brings another late-blooming rookie, and similar to Thielbar, Topa found success in his early 30s. As a rookie last season, he posted a 2.61 ERA and backed it up with a 3.15 FIP. His 8.0 K/9 was an impressive mark, and considering he’s a ground ball savant, allowing just an 8.0 H/9 worked nicely as well.

Baldelli doesn’t need to cycle Topa in with the late arms like Durán, Jax, Thielbar, or Stewart, but he gets an opportunity to shorten the game when a starting arm goes little more than five. That collection around Topa has also taken a big step forward, assuming a level of health for the season ahead. We haven’t seen Jorge Alcalá put it all together yet, but the makings of a good relief arm have been there for a while. If he can blossom alongside an upside play like Josh Staumont, the bullpen takes another step forward.

Topa and Staumont aren't the only relief additions for Minnesota either. A major league contract for Jay Jackson puts him in the mix, and despite having bounced around since making a debut in 2015, he figured things out to the tune of a 2.12 ERA with the Blue Jays last season. Now 36, Jackson is out of options, and somewhat of an unknown commodity across a larger sample size, but the Twins clearly saw something they liked. If nothing else, he'll provide a level of depth that can stash someone in the minors to start the year.

It may be hard to believe that Durán has another level yet to unlock, but he's only 26 years old and 2024 will be just the second season of him working as an unquestioned closer. After putting up a 1.0 fWAR tally in 2023, ZiPS and Steamer projections both have him surpassing that mark in the year ahead. Roughly 40% of Minnesota's bullpen value is expected to be derived from the arm of Duran (if FanGraphs is to be believed), and there is definitely a path for him to look more like the 2022 version that finished with a 1.86 ERA, near-90% strand rate, and a FIP south of 3.00. Now fully equipped with entrance music and a hype train, the Twins closer may add plenty more steam in the year ahead.

What Minnesota will do with Louie Varland remains to be seen. He looked electric in brief action out of the bullpen last fall, but keeping him stretched out as an option for the rotation makes some sense. Anthony DeSclafani probably took his immediate rotation spot, but he could follow the Bailey Ober path to start the year if he isn’t going to enter from beyond the outfield.

The last unmentioned member of the group could be rookie Kody Funderburk. Working a 12-inning sample last year for the Twins, he allowed a single run on six hits while posting a 19/5 K/BB. His inclusion would give Baldelli a second southpaw to work with, and nothing about the cameo should be hard to believe. He was dominant at Triple-A last season for the St. Paul Saints, and a promotion looked warranted well before when it came. Minnesota could have four arms in the big league bullpen, all at pre-arbitration salaries this year, and another two checking in below $1 million each. It may be among the cheapest groups in the game, but they’ll have an opportunity to challenge for the best unit.

Last season, the rotation often put Baldelli in a situation to piece games together by going deeper into ballgames. If the rotation is going to take a slight step backward in 2024, there is a path for the overall outcome to remain the same. The high-leverage bullpen talent remains intact, and the rest of the group presents few weak spots as a whole. While it’s more than fair to worry about a rotation that is now without Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the guys supporting them look better than we’ve seen at any point in recent memory.

Having less of a top-heavy unit, and one that could now employ a pair of solid lefties, the front office has constructed something that may be among the biggest strengths for the team. Although the Twins don't have a Kenley Jansen, Josh Hader, or Edwin Díaz eating away at payroll in relief, they do have a well-constructed contingent that can compete with anyone regardless of the name or number of zeroes on a paycheck. This is a group to be reckoned with, and just how good they should be an exciting ceiling to push.

Outside of the obvious answers, who are you most excited about seeing pitch in relief for the Twins this year? Is there an arm you expect to surprise?