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    These Free Agents Could Help the Twins Change Their Offensive Identity


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins had a good offense in 2023, but one with some frustrating tendencies that ultimately contributed to the team's postseason downfall.

    If Minnesota wants to move away from its extreme swing-and-miss profile, these are a few offseason pickups who could help meaningfully move the needle.

    Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

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    Maybe you heard: The 2023 Minnesota Twins offense set the all-time record for most strikeouts in a season. Their hitters turned and walked back to the dugout an astonishing 1,654 times, taking the "boom or bust" model to new heights by also tying for the AL lead in home runs. 

    It's a style that often worked for them, as the Twins captured a division title and advanced to the second round of the playoffs. But the lineup's unprecedented susceptibility to strikeouts made them highly vulnerable to droughts in run-scoring.

    Our worst fears came to fruition in the ALDS. The Twins brought home a 1-1 series and then spiraled into a sea of strikeouts at home, piling up 28 Ks while scoring three runs over 18 innings in Games 3 and 4. Like that, the ride was over.

    To some extent, the Twins are strikeout-prone by design, and that's fine. "We're trying to find a way to build the best offense," Derek Falvey said after the season. "That will come with some version of strikeouts, but hopefully some version of getting on base and hitting for power." 

    With high-K, high-power player types like Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Edouard Julien and Ryan Jeffers serving as key parts of their lineup, "some version of strikeouts" is going to be a reality. Still, the Twins will benefit from finding ways to dial back the whiffs elsewhere. 

    Of the top 12 teams in strikeouts this year, only two (the Twins and Phillies) made the playoffs. Even if the K will inherently be part of Minnesota's offensive DNA going forward, the front office would be wise to counterbalance this trait rather than leaning into it as they did with the Joey Gallo signing.

    Swapping out Gallo's presence for one of the following free agent targets, on its own, would make a big impact on the team's overall proneness to strikeouts, helping shift them away from an identity that was overwhelming defined by the whiff in 2023.

    Whit Merrifield, LF/2B

    Merrifield did strike out 100 times this year, but don't let the triple digits fool you – he compiled strikeouts only because he played so much. As usual, he was very durable and useful to his team, accumulating 592 plate appearances. Merrifield's 17.1 K% was well below the league average, and would have been lowest of any Twins hitter who played 50+ games. He has appeal as a righty bat capable of mixing in at multiple spots.

    Jung-hoo Lee, CF

    The KBO star is setting his sights on Major League Baseball after a prestigious career in Korea. Contact hitting his Lee's calling card – in 2022 his strikeout rate (5.1%) was the lowest in the league as he batted .349 with a .996 OPS and won MVP. His 2023 season was more of same, albeit cut short by an ankle injury. There's an added element of uncertainty in translating Lee's game from another league to the majors, but it seems fair to say that putting the bat on the ball will be a strength.

    Carlos Santana, 1B/DH

    Santana is a guy who can hit for power without striking out a ton, which is a combination the Twins would welcome. The veteran switch hitter has long been renowned for his discipline, with a 14.8% career walk rate alongside a 16.8% K-rate. His age (38 next April) means he'll likely be available on a one-year deal, but also increases the concern of steepening decline.

    Justin Turner, 1B/3B

    Turner's appeal is very similar to Santana's: late-30s veteran who can play first base and hit some home runs without a corresponding avalanche of strikeouts. In fact, Turner's offensive totals with Boston this year (23 homers, 31 doubles, 96 RBIs) were very similar to Santana's (23 homers, 33 doubles, 86 RBIs) and his 17.5% K rate was also nearly identical to Santana's. Turner is a year older but has a more consistently strong offensive track record. Lou Hennessy wrote this morning about Turner's potential for a Nelson Cruz-like impact.

    Michael Brantley, LF

    One of the best bat-to-ball hitters in the game. Since 2017, Brantley has the fourth-lowest K% (10.8%) among MLB players with 2,000+ PAs. He also has a .305/.364..461 slash line during that span. Brantley is is 36 and has a long history of injuries; he's also not a great fit for the Twins' needs as a LH-hitting corner outfielder. But as a free agent target specifically designed to uproot the team's strikeout-centric culture, few would be better suited.

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    5 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

    I’m with you. Brantley would be just what the doctor ordered for the Twins.

    Love watching Brantley hit over his career……he’s too fragile & too much risk for being paid like a normal version of himself. He played 64 games in ‘22 & 15 games in ‘23……great hitter - no availability! Cannot risk this sign.

    I appreciate having the chance to read everyone's thoughts before I comment.  I'm not really interested in mid to late 30ish guys who are limited by what they can contribute in the field.

    Turner would be a good solid bat in the #5 hole for our lineup.  He still seems productive.  But I want somebody who can be around when the rest of the young talent starts to blossom.  I agree with those that are of the opinion that with limited resources what money we have to spend should go towards filling the rotation holes that Gray, Maeda and Varland will cause in our rotation (remember, I'm moving Varland to the bullpen for 2024).

    So with that said, I'm interested in Lee.  He's 25 years old.  he can grow with Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, and later, Brooks Lee, Emm-Rod and Jenkins.  He's a CF with elite contact skills.  I think you're getting someone closer to Steven Kwan than our previous KBL flops.  Hitting at the top of the order with Julien batting 2nd, we've got some serious table-setters.

    Since I think Julien is adequate at 2B and I've got Lewis and then Brooks Lee coming soon, I'm trading Polanco.  We will be fine without him.  If it would take $14 million for 4 years to sign Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and lead off, trading Polanco $10.5 and Theilbar $3.0 is about a wash.  I roll with Funderburk and Moran as my bullpen lefty's.  

    I would prefer to keep Kepler this season and have an outfield that's primarily Kepler, Lee and Wallner, but this means we still need to scrounge a RH hitting outfielder (unless Austin Martin is that guy).  I may not have a better LF/RF option than Kepler available.  

    The final move to make a Lee signing workable is a trade for a SP that doesn't cost much in terms of salary for another 3 years or so.  I proposed this deal on another thread:

    Twins Get:  Eduard Cabrera RHP 8.5 value on BBTV 26 years old.  Sixto Sanchez RHP 0.0 value 26 y/o.  Ryan Weathers LHP 0.0 value 24 y/o.  Total value 8.5o

    Marlins Get:  Larnach 7.8 OF 27 y/o.  Brent Headrick LHP 1.7 value  25 y/o.  Nick Gordon Utility .20 28 y/o.  You could swap in Misael Urbina 2.3 value a 21 y/o OF for either Gordon or Headrick, whatever the Marlins want. 

    A deal like this helps soften the blow of Varland to the bullpen and adds a cost-efficient SP to the rotation in Cabrera.  It also leaves the opportunity to add a SP somewhere in the Giolito/Wacha/Eduardo Rodriguez price range depending on how far the Twins would consider reaching and surpassing $140.

    CF Jung-hoo Lee is who I would go after.  

     

    18 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

    I appreciate having the chance to read everyone's thoughts before I comment.  I'm not really interested in mid to late 30ish guys who are limited by what they can contribute in the field.

    Turner would be a good solid bat in the #5 hole for our lineup.  He still seems productive.  But I want somebody who can be around when the rest of the young talent starts to blossom.  I agree with those that are of the opinion that with limited resources what money we have to spend should go towards filling the rotation holes that Gray, Maeda and Varland will cause in our rotation (remember, I'm moving Varland to the bullpen for 2024).

    So with that said, I'm interested in Lee.  He's 25 years old.  he can grow with Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, and later, Brooks Lee, Emm-Rod and Jenkins.  He's a CF with elite contact skills.  I think you're getting someone closer to Steven Kwan than our previous KBL flops.  Hitting at the top of the order with Julien batting 2nd, we've got some serious table-setters.

    Since I think Julien is adequate at 2B and I've got Lewis and then Brooks Lee coming soon, I'm trading Polanco.  We will be fine without him.  If it would take $14 million for 4 years to sign Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and lead off, trading Polanco $10.5 and Theilbar $3.0 is about a wash.  I roll with Funderburk and Moran as my bullpen lefty's.  

    I would prefer to keep Kepler this season and have an outfield that's primarily Kepler, Lee and Wallner, but this means we still need to scrounge a RH hitting outfielder (unless Austin Martin is that guy).  I may not have a better LF/RF option than Kepler available.  

    The final move to make a Lee signing workable is a trade for a SP that doesn't cost much in terms of salary for another 3 years or so.  I proposed this deal on another thread:

    Twins Get:  Eduard Cabrera RHP 8.5 value on BBTV 26 years old.  Sixto Sanchez RHP 0.0 value 26 y/o.  Ryan Weathers LHP 0.0 value 24 y/o.  Total value 8.5o

    Marlins Get:  Larnach 7.8 OF 27 y/o.  Brent Headrick LHP 1.7 value  25 y/o.  Nick Gordon Utility .20 28 y/o.  You could swap in Misael Urbina 2.3 value a 21 y/o OF for either Gordon or Headrick, whatever the Marlins want. 

    A deal like this helps soften the blow of Varland to the bullpen and adds a cost-efficient SP to the rotation in Cabrera.  It also leaves the opportunity to add a SP somewhere in the Giolito/Wacha/Eduardo Rodriguez price range depending on how far the Twins would consider reaching and surpassing $140.

    CF Jung-hoo Lee is who I would go after.  

     

    I like the Lee idea.  However, I am not following the numbers.  If you trade Polanco, you are at $106.4M (see below) while keeping Thielbar.  The latest budget blurb is that they will cut at least 10% which is a max of $140M.  That gives you $33M to spend.  MLB Trade Rumors projects Lee at 5/50.  Even at $11M AAV for Lee you would have up to $22M to spend on pitching.  The next guy I would move in this equation is Farmer which would give you $38M available for pitching after signing Lee. 

    image.png.aad689235af317a331f60e1bab85548c.png

     

    That's excellent how you laid that out Major league Ready !  Lee certainly interests me.  Looks like I've got a little more money to spend than I originally thought.

    If I traded Jax 19.1 value, Larnach 7.8 value and Miranda 5.1 value and Hedrick 1.7 value  (total value 33.7) to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes 32.0 value and added an arbitration salary of $15.1 to Burnes for 2024 that would leave us at $131,738,000 for payroll.  We'd still have another $9 to $10 million to add a SP or RP and a position player.  Trading Farmer adds $6.6 million to that total.  If you had $16 million to work with, you could fit Giolito into the rotation and create some depth.    




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