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    The Twins Won’t Exercise Max Kepler’s Option…Will They?

    Ted Schwerzler

    By Ted Schwerzler

    Max Kepler has played nine years for the Minnesota Twins after they signed him as an international free agent out of Germany. His backstory is well-documented, and the son of ballet dancers has become a staple for the Twins. 2023 looked to be the end of the line, but thanks to a recent resurgence, that seems less straightforward.

     

    Image courtesy of © Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports

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    Coming into the season, for the second offseason in a row, the Twins front office had a straightforward opportunity to trade Max Kepler. They had Alex Kirilloff ready for more playing time, with Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner knocking on the door. Pepper in Joey Gallo for $11 million over the winter, and the log jam for Rocco Baldelli's outfield was piling up.

    Without the infield shift, the theory was that it would give Kepler additional opportunities for production. Still, knowing that his downfall has been launch angle more than anything, that wasn't a guaranteed outcome. As of June 18, Kepler has bottomed out with a .189/.261/.365 slash line. His .625 OPS wasn't cutting it, and the otherwise outstanding defense in right field also slipped.

    Then he turned it on.

    For 40 games from June 20 through August 6, Kepler slashed .291/.343/.582. For a slumping Twins lineup, he had become arguably their best bat. When the trade deadline came, the front office may have had an opportunity to again capitalize on what they believed was fair value for him, but instead stood pat. Kepler has continued to rake and destroyed the longest home run hit this season over the weekend against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was his third straight game with a home run, and shades of his 2019 Bomba Squad season were showing.

    At one point during the 2023 season, Kepler had posted a negative WAR at Fangraphs, being worse than a replacement-level player. As of August 7, he's pushed his season tally back up to 1.2, making him the fourth-highest productive hitter for Minnesota. Although Kepler's defense hasn't rebounded entirely, he still owns 2 DRS and 3 OAA on the season, putting him above an average outfielder.

    Kepler will play all of the 2023 season at 30 and turns 31 in February. Due to the substantial turnaround, he has given the Twins' front office new things to consider for 2024. At this point, it looks like Larnach is not a given to be a consistently productive player, and Kirilloff can play first base when healthy. If he makes it through the season, Gallo will be gone over the winter, and the outfield doesn't have any guaranteed additions unless that's where Royce Lewis begins in 2024.

    Playing on the final guaranteed year of his contract extension this season, Kepler is making $8.5 million. That number jumps up only slightly next year at $10 million and is still less than what the Twins needed to give Gallo after an atrocious showing for the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers a year ago.

    At his current fWAR production, Fangraphs estimates Kepler's value at $9.7 million. Assuming he slows down some but continues to add, he should finish well beyond the cost of keeping him next season, and he'll have done it despite digging a massive hole.

    The Twins would prefer a more straightforward version of success rather than a significant peak having to make up for the valley, but baseball is 162 games for a reason. Kepler has utilized the entire schedule to get on track this season, and he has the runway in front of him to continue being a key cog for a Minnesota postseason run.

    It would have been lunacy to pose this question even a couple of months ago, and I was all but out on Kepler myself. At this point, he's at least made the decision worth considering, and he could make it an absolute no-brainer by season's end.

    A blogger for over a decade, passion for baseball and the Minnesota Twins runs deep. Whether at the ballpark or on the couch, I'm probably tweeting.
    Follow Ted Schwerzler on Twitter: tlschwerz

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    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,208

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, saviking said:

    I agree. 40 game streak is a small sample size. Let's see where he ends up, but if Kepler stays hot, maybe we can get something for him this off-season; along with Polanco I'm ready for a full-on youth movement. You've got a guy like Severino that I'm assuming we will lose unless he stays on the 40-man roster. And then there is Prato and potentially Lee a Martin ready next year. Going with the youngsters will also help to offset the 40 million sunk in Buxton and Correa so we have money to spend.

    Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23.

    Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money!

    ‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.

    saviking

    saviking 1,095

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Mahle - Gray - Maeda - Polanco - Kepler - Gallo - Taylor - Solano (all gone) is $70M out of the $153 in ‘23. We’re OK budget wise if we re-sign Solano & Maeda & Kepler for a total of $25M……leaves $45M in savings from ‘23.

    Kuechel will be interesting - he seems to like organization……,,,what if we get 5 of 7 good starts from him? Do we throw $7M at him with a couple incentives? $11M at Maeda? $4M at Solano? Kick in Kepler’s $10M?…….some good vets around our young guys for not too much money!

    ‘24 Staff: Paddack - Varland - Kuechel - Maeda - Lopez - Ober - Ryan……………draft pick for Gray after Qualifying Offer…….gives us depth and the ability to trade mid-season as well.

    Good analysis. I agree with Maeda if we can sign him for 11 mill. I think he's still got gas in the tank. Kepler I'm fifty/fifty on. I agree his salary is reasonable. I just don't see how we can keep Salano and have enough room for our young infielders. Especially come mid-season

    I sincerely think these young guys are good enough, and have the character to thrive without many veterans. They can feed off each other as many have grown up in the farm system together. Correa's best asset is his leadership, so I think he can carry the load along with Buxton. Our I don't think we have ever had this many quality rookies since the very early 1990s. And I think their plate discipline is superior to the current longer-term major leaguers we have now. 

    But yes, it sounds like we both expect the changing or the guard is upon us and it's great for salary cap relief.

    IndianaTwin

    IndianaTwin 12,194

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1. Ignore Polanco and Kepler for now and go with me here.
    2. Solano, Taylor and Gallo are free agents. In theory, they can be brought back, but I don't think any are likely, particularly not before decisions are made on Kepler and Polanco. If Solano only got $2M this year as a 35-year-old, he's going to be hard-pressed to get an MLB deal. I'd gladly take him on a minor league deal. Taylor may be a step above that.
    3. Vazquez and Jeffers occupy two roster spots and are the catcher.
    4. Correa is the starting SS.
    5. Buxton has a big contract and a no-trade contract. If he was guaranteed to be healthy, I'd list him in No. 4 with Correa.
    6. With their flexibility and manageable expectations, Farmer and Castro will be tendered contracts. That is six roster spots filled. Gordon has played so little this year that he's clearly a non-tender candidate, so I'm going to put him in the list below.

    So that's six "veterans" on the team -- Vazquez, Jeffers, Correa, Buxton, Farmer and Castro, though I think they would hope that Farmer and Castro are not playing every day. It's really three "starters" -- the catcher, Correa and Buxton (hopefully). 

    Now look at this list of remaining names -- Julien, Wallner, Lewis, Kirilloff, Gordon, Miranda, Larnach and any prospect you would like to name (notably Martin and Lee). What do they have in common? At least two things.

    1. Talent.
    2. Less than a year of proven MLB experience. 

    No way do the Twins start the season with only six veterans (only three as "full-time" starters, and one of those injury-prone) and that much inexperience.

    With any semblance of productivity the rest of the way, Kepler is back. Similarly, I think there's a good likelihood on Polanco, at least in part because he also has an affordable option for 2025 that could be exercised if he's productive next year. The alternative is to get a couple of free agents, but it's their approach to go with the devil you know over the one you don't.  

    Hashim

    Hashim 91

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    9 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

    Really?! I would be shocked if there is even 1 solid MLB starter for 2024 in that group and if there is, it's probably Larnach or maybe Prato. We're talking about a 1 year option for Kepler so the real question is which of those guys will be a solid starter in 2024, not beyond. Stevenson is almost 30 and previously failed with the Nats, Kiersey is 26 and just got to AAA (where he isn't hitting), Williams is now hitting at age 26 but has an over 33% SO rate in AAA, and Camargo is a catcher with an over 33% SO rate in AAA.  Laranch has been spotty in previous tries and regularly injured, and Prato just got to AAA. If the question is do we keep Kepler in 2025, maybe one of these guys can be the replacement if they show well in 2024 during the inevitable call ups for injuries like Julien has or as a bench OF. For 2024, no way would I put trust in the idea that one of them will be a starting caliber MLB OF for a full season. And if they aren't, much as it pains me to write this, you gotta keep Kepler if the goal is to contend. 

    You make some good points. You don’t know what you have with Larnach and others if you don’t give them a chance. I would save the $10 million and use that money towards a bonafide ace or all-star hitter. 

    SwainZag

    SwainZag 7,018

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    8 hours ago, joefish said:

    This would be easier for me if Kepler's first half more closely resembled the start of this second half. 

    I was ready to part ways with him.  Now we are seeing him hit the ball again. And we need that, along with his defense. 

    Well obviously.  His OPS since the the 2nd half started is .958, if he hit like that all year long it would be 3rd in the AL only behind Ohtani and Seager.

    We will see how he finishes out the season, but his swing does look shorter, and he is hitting the ball hard.  His barrell %, exit velocity, and XSLG are all career highs right now.....and that includes the awful first half of games he played this season.

    1st 46 games, 165 PA: .189/.261/.365  .626 OPS

    Last 41 games, 151 PA: .290/.344/.573  .917 OPS

    A full season of the recent Kepler makes him a top 10 corner OF in baseball.  Now is Max that good?  Probably not, but he does look like he could give you a .800 OPS+ year, which is a for sure yes on picking up that option.



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