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    The Front Office Was Right to Bet on Their Roster


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins front office has been criticized up and down over the years for making decisions that could ultimately be looked back upon as wrong. When looking at the 2023 trade deadline, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine decided to bet on the group they had assembled. It was a gutsy move, but they were right.

     

    Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Coming into the year, Derek Falvey gave Rocco Baldelli a roster that included star power in the form of Carlos Correa. He provided depth in the form of Kyle Farmer, Willi Castro, Michael A. Taylor, and Donovan Solano. He got ownership’s blessing to spend to a threshold the franchise had never before seen. This team wasn’t complete, but it was a very strong foot forward.

    With the Twins playing through multiple months of baseball and clinging onto a slim lead atop the AL Central division, Minnesota’s leaders opted against adding at the deadline. They had conversations with teams that wound up hanging onto their assets. Maybe they didn’t cast a wide enough net, and they certainly could’ve afforded to bring in relief help. Their inaction suggested one thing though, they believed in what they had.

    Now, halfway through September, Minnesota leads the Cleveland Guardians by 8.5 games in the division and recently clinched the AL Central. Terry Francona’s club made a last-ditch effort in claiming former Angels Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez. Even though Minnesota put in claims for some of those talents, their play on the field proved they weren’t needed.

    With only a handful of game’s left in the regular season, the front office’s belief that the guys were already in the organization is again starting to rear its head. Brock Stewart was put on ice before the All-Star Break, and his absence has been lengthier than imagined, but he is trending towards a return at the opportune time. Nick Gordon is available for a return to the roster, and Chris Paddack will be called upon as well. More than any other time during the season, they’ll have a roster crunch to sort out.

    Maybe it’s unfair to suggest that Falvey knew each of his injured players would return, but behind the scenes Minnesota was certainly operating with that belief. While not all of them may be needed on the initial postseason roster, having them for the final games in September, and as an option when games matter most, is a good thing.

    There’s also an unspoken belief in the youth that Minnesota’s inaction has provided. By bringing in additional bodies at the deadline, it’s uncertain how much playing time guys like Edouard Julien, Royce Lewis, and Matt Wallner may have ceded. Louie Varland probably isn’t transitioning to the bullpen, and though he's a veteran, Kenta Maeda working out of there may not be an option either.

    It’s a great thing for a clubhouse to feel like the front office believes in them enough to supplement, but there is also a message sent in saying the talent we have already is enough for us to get the job done.

    How things go in October remains to be seen, but it will be difficult to suggest that the Twins didn’t put their best foot forward. The veteran depth that has served them well all year can round out the edges of the roster, and the youth movement that has stepped up in a big way will be given their first true time to shine.

    What Minnesota could have done at the deadline may have made a difference in a few key spots, but that the roster got it done on their own, and no prospects were pieced out, is a feather in the cap of leadership as well.

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    19 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

    If they add a couple of relievers and let go of Pagán as many suggested, are they better? Do Funderburk and Varland get an opportunity? I would suggest the bullpen is better having not made a deal for a reliever at the deadline. The performance of the relievers in MLBTR’s top 50 trade targets is more miss than hit.

    The one deal it was reported by Heyman that they were close was for Pham. The DBacks ended up winning that deal right at the end. They gave up a top 50 international prospect. The Twins could have beaten that offer. Ariel Castro plus another might have done it. Pham (0.5 WAR) is performing a little better than Luplow (0.3 WAR) but your top international prospect plus more is not an insignificant cost for a marginal improvement.

    Sure you can make that argument and it looks great on paper... I can't argue the value of reliever X compared to what Funderburk and Varland are doing at the moment.

    However... the argument assumes that Funderburk and Varland remain healthy and available and it also assumes that Funderburk and Varland actually perform decently which was not yet determined at the trade deadline either.   

    It also assumes that nearly everybody in the bullpen remains healthy throughout August and September because a loss at the back end of the bullpen shortens the bullpen immediately. The same goes for all of our position players remaining healthy. 

    The direct comparison argument to see if the move improved a team could be made for every team that bought.  

    The following teams bought at the trade deadline:

    Orioles: Fujimami, Flaherty

    Jays: Cabrera, Hicks, DeJong

    Rays: Civale, Sampson

    Yankees: Middleton

    Rangers: Chapman, Scherzer, Montgomery, Stratton, Hedges

    Astros: Graveman, Verlander

    Angels: Giolito, Lopez, Cron, Grichuk, Leone

    Braves: Johnson, Lopez, Hand

    Phillies: Castro, Lorenzen

    Marlins: Robertson, Burger, Bell

    Brewers: Santana, Canha, Chafin

    Cubs: Candelario, Cuas

    Reds: Moll

    Dodgers: Kike, Rosario, Lynn, Kelly, Yarbrough

    D-Backs: Sewald, Peterson, Pham

    Giants: Pollack

    Padres: Gamel, Hill, Choi, Barlow

    The Guardians and Mariners sold and the Twins traded Lopez for Floro which is basically standing still if not a step down from Lopez. I'll also say that Reds... slightly bought with the only addition being Moll so they almost a stand still like the Twins. 

    Everybody else plus some that shouldn't have... attempted to get better. 

     

     

     

     

    12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

    However... the argument assumes that Funderburk and Varland remain healthy and available and it also assumes that Funderburk and Varland actually perform decently which was not yet determined at the trade deadline either. 

    Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop?

    Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.

    Comes down to.health, as usual for this team. Don't really see Correa recovering in two weeks, Buxton should be shelved.

    Stewart, Paddock coming back give the bullpen hope.

    Lewis is key. If he can't go full tilt, they are doomed.

    Maeda clearly deserves to start game 3.

    Ryan is is not needed in the first round and should be left off the roster as long as the last man in the bullpen isn't Kuechel, Hendrick, Sands, Winder, Moran, Floro or any of the other stiffs that have pitched out of the pen this year. 

    10 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

    Mine was all hindsight. I didn’t make those arguments at the deadline. I couldn’t see Funderburk helping or a home run prone Varland adding so much in relief. At the all star break I thought they should move on from Kepler and Pagán. Who would have though their greatest need heading into the last six games would be third base and shortstop?

    Looking at the results my assumptions were wrong. After the deadline they have been among the better teams in the AL. They have won many series where they couldn’t even put more than two together in the first 100 games. They had what they needed on the roster already to get better. I couldn’t see it. I can acknowledge the results though.

    At the deadline... I wanted a Right Handed Bat that could hit both lefties and righties while not striking out above average. I wanted that bat because our strict platoon utilization was going to continue and because of the performance we were getting against left handed pitching at the deadline.

    Candelario was the guy I had my eye on. He has hit horribly since the Cubs acquired him.  

    This stuff is hard for us mere mortals. 

    In hindsight... I still endorse the attempt even if it fails and I would have failed with Candelario. 

    We had areas that could have (Should have) been improved upon at the deadline. Improvement should have been attempted at least... IMO.

    August, September and the playoffs are long journeys ahead. It's your last chance to check to see if you packed enough socks. 

     




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