TD Top Prospects: #10 Lewin Diaz

Dantes929 · February 13, 2017

I used to argue against the value so many put on power hitting but now that it seems the pendulum has swung the other way. What's not to like about Dozier hitting 42 homers or anyone hitting 30? Is this the guy that's going to replace Mauer in 2 years? What is his defense like?

February 13, 2017

As a 19-year-old, Diaz had a much better K rate in E-town than Walker did as a 20-year-old there. Diaz also had better ISO, OBP and SLG (actually better than Walker has had at any level).

mikelink45 · February 13, 2017

Hard to see him as #10. There is not enough track record yet, but I hope you are right and he is going to move fast.

Thrylos · February 13, 2017

Hard to see him as #10. There is not enough track record yet, but I hope you are right and he is going to move fast.

"Track Record" is difficult to establish for prospect. Diaz's track record is 3 pro seasons 136 games and 541 PA; compared to 1 pro season 55 games and 232 PA for Kirilloff and 2 pro seasons, 37 games and 102 IP for Jay. I guess he has a longer "track record" than the other 2. How do you feel about those?

How about Nick Gordon: 3 pro seasons 293 games, 1282 PA. Is that enough sample for a "track record"?

gunnarthor · February 13, 2017

He's a pretty interesting prospect. A bit of a lottery ticket but a few lottery tickets have to hit, right?

Seth Stohs · February 13, 2017

"Track Record" is difficult to establish for prospect. Diaz's track record is 3 pro seasons 136 games and 541 PA; compared to 1 pro season 55 games and 232 PA for Kirilloff and 2 pro seasons, 37 games and 102 IP for Jay. I guess he has a longer "track record" than the other 2. How do you feel about those?

How about Nick Gordon: 3 pro seasons 293 games, 1282 PA. Is that enough sample for a "track record"?

Correct... Numbers play a very small role in prospect ranking, especially for those in the lowest levels. The numbers there are almost meaningless - though the assumption also should be that the talent and tools will at least somewhat show up in the stats.

I ranked Diaz #6 due to his power potential, but also his athleticism. Told he was pretty nimble around first base. And, he's more than just a power hitter. Obviously that comes with the risk of his size and that he's got a long way to move up still.

Parker Hageman · February 13, 2017

I ranked Diaz #6 due to his power potential, but also his athleticism. Told he was pretty nimble around first base. And, he's more than just a power hitter. Obviously that comes with the risk of his size and that he's got a long way to move up still.

Correct. Radcliff was high on his athleticism for a guy his size. I'd like to hear from some of the Twins Daily members who are down at camp. If you get a chance to see his infield chops, let us know.

Parker Hageman · February 13, 2017

As a 19-year-old, Diaz had a much better K rate in E-town than Walker did as a 20-year-old there. Diaz also had better ISO, OBP and SLG (actually better than Walker has had at any level).

"...but he has shown signs of being more than an all-or-nothing type of hitter like Walker."

JaleelWhite FanClub · February 13, 2017

Any idea where he'll be playing this season? Cedar Rapids? Or EST and then on to E-town again? My hope for his timetable is the former.

ThejacKmp · February 13, 2017

Is this the guy that's going to replace Mauer in 2 years?

No. He's 19. He would need to shoot up through the high minors at a dizzying pace. He's still 3 years away. Luckily, 1B is not a position of need for the Twins.

Steve Lein · February 13, 2017

Higher than me on Diaz, but not far off in this system.

For a 'power-hitting' prospect, it's good to see a .310 average. But I would also point out that Eddie Rosario hit .337 with 21 HR's in that league. Being a more well-rounded hitter is good, but needs to show the "game-power" that is mentioned as lacking in the article before he's in the top 10 for me.

Seth Stohs · February 13, 2017

Any idea where he'll be playing this season? Cedar Rapids? Or EST and then on to E-town again? My hope for his timetable is the former.

No question. He'll start in Cedar Rapids.

Seth Stohs · February 13, 2017

Higher than me on Diaz, but not far off in this system.

For a 'power-hitting' prospect, it's good to see a .310 average. But I would also point out that Eddie Rosario hit .337 with 21 HR's in that league. Being a more well-rounded hitter is good, but needs to show the "game-power" that is mentioned as lacking in the article before he's in the top 10 for me.

Of course, the fences at the stadium in Eizabethton are also quite a bit deeper than they were back then.

He's definitely a high-risk prospect, but if he works he has a high ceiling.

Thrylos · February 13, 2017

Higher than me on Diaz, but not far off in this system.

For a 'power-hitting' prospect, it's good to see a .310 average. But I would also point out that Eddie Rosario hit .337 with 21 HR's in that league. Being a more well-rounded hitter is good, but needs to show the "game-power" that is mentioned as lacking in the article before he's in the top 10 for me.

I have him as 3rd overall.

I hear that "lack of game-power" and I see a .264 isoP from Diaz, same league same team same year where everyone's latest greatest, Kirilloff, has .146 isoP, and wonder how people would feel about Kirilloff's dismal game-power, as a comparison. /sarcasm.

Plenty of game power

Edited February 13, 2017 by Thrylos

beckmt · February 13, 2017

I understand Cedar Rapids, but a part of me would like to see Ft. Myers and get a feel for what he brings, also to try and get him here in 2019 to replace Mauer.

markos · February 13, 2017

Of course, the fences at the stadium in Eizabethton are also quite a bit deeper than they were back then.

He's definitely a high-risk prospect, but if he works he has a high ceiling.

When did the fences change? I looked back several years, and frankly Diaz's results are middling at best compared to other Twins youngsters at Eizabethton.

Josmil Pinto, 2009, 20yo, 166 wRC+
Oswaldo Arcia, 2010, 19yo, 197 wRC+
Eddie Rosario, 2011, 19yo, 175 wRC+
Miguel Sano, 2011, 18yo, 153 wRC+
Kennys Vargas, 2011, 20yo, 132 wRC+
Max Kepler, 2012, 19yo, 153 wRC+
Jorge Polanco, 2012, 18yo, 143 wRC+
Travis Harrison, 2012, 19yo, 138 wRC+
Jermaine Palacios, 2015, 18yo, 131 wRC+
Lewin Diaz, 2016, 19yo, 149 wRC+

Other than Sano, none of the others managed to hit enough (yet, anyways) to be an above-average 1B/DH option. But if the ballpark characterizations have changed, then maybe it is more meaningful.

Thrylos · February 13, 2017

When did the fences change? I looked back several years, and frankly Diaz's results are middling at best compared to other Twins youngsters at Eizabethton.

Josmil Pinto, 2009, 20yo, 166 wRC+
Oswaldo Arcia, 2010, 19yo, 197 wRC+
Eddie Rosario, 2011, 19yo, 175 wRC+
Miguel Sano, 2011, 18yo, 153 wRC+
Kennys Vargas, 2011, 20yo, 132 wRC+
Max Kepler, 2012, 19yo, 153 wRC+
Jorge Polanco, 2012, 18yo, 143 wRC+
Travis Harrison, 2012, 19yo, 138 wRC+
Jermaine Palacios, 2015, 18yo, 131 wRC+
Lewin Diaz, 2016, 19yo, 149 wRC+

Other than Sano, none of the others managed to hit enough (yet, anyways) to be an above-average 1B/DH option. But if the ballpark characterizations have changed, then maybe it is more meaningful.

2014. Moved about 10 feet back. Here is a great writeup of the park before they moved the fences. The Twins (that actually own that club) got the City to approve a budget to further renovate. As you can tell that ballpark is a mess...

Edited February 13, 2017 by Thrylos

Steve Lein · February 13, 2017

Of course, the fences at the stadium in Eizabethton are also quite a bit deeper than they were back then.

He's definitely a high-risk prospect, but if he works he has a high ceiling.

When did they renovate? Hadn't heard that. I remember hearing the Twins pulled their support of a new renovation last year, but not anything about a renovation/re-configuring happening in the years prior.

Edit: And I see Thrylos has answered that already.

Edited February 13, 2017 by Steve Lein

February 13, 2017

"...but he has shown signs of being more than an all-or-nothing type of hitter like Walker."

Definitely. And the K rate, ISO, OBP and SLG are good signs. Good write-up. Better prospect than ABW3.

Edited February 13, 2017 by Deduno Abides

goulik · February 13, 2017

Thanks for sharing that article Thrylos. Fascinating. You would think the Twins could afford to send a million that way some day for some upgrades and amenities.

Bob Sacamento · February 14, 2017

Correct. Radcliff was high on his athleticism for a guy his size. I'd like to hear from some of the Twins Daily members who are down at camp. If you get a chance to see his infield chops, let us know.

For someone who's his size, at this point I'm guessing 6'4 and at least 220lbs (not his last listed at 6'3 180 on milb), he moves well around the bag. When I saw him in GCL 2015/Extended Spring 2016, he didn't have eye popping range but at least moved well laterally to his glove side. On the bag, he provided a big target while scooping at a modest rate and providing a plus arm at first.

At the plate, he challenges ABW for the longest homeruns I've seen hit on the backfields whether in batting practice, intrasquad, or game play. What I've always liked about him is that he seemingly has an approach at the plate, he's not afraid to take a count deep looking for his pitch. He looks like he's finally starting to look leaner and getting some of that "baby fat" the scouts call it off

Parker Hageman · February 14, 2017

For someone who's his size, at this point I'm guessing 6'4 and at least 220lbs (not his last listed at 6'3 180 on milb), he moves well around the bag. When I saw him in GCL 2015/Extended Spring 2016, he didn't have eye popping range but at least moved well laterally to his glove side. On the bag, he provided a big target while scooping at a modest rate and providing a plus arm at first.

At the plate, he challenges ABW for the longest homeruns I've seen hit on the backfields whether in batting practice, intrasquad, or game play. What I've always liked about him is that he seemingly has an approach at the plate, he's not afraid to take a count deep looking for his pitch. He looks like he's finally starting to look leaner and getting some of that "baby fat" the scouts call it off

Good info. Thanks for sharing.

Thrylos · February 14, 2017

Thanks for sharing that article Thrylos. Fascinating. You would think the Twins could afford to send a million that way some day for some upgrades and amenities.

It is complicated and it is turned into a saga of sorts. This is the latest. The park is owned by the City. Even the GM of the team is a city employee. The Twins threatened of leaving and the city finally approved $3.2M for the renovations necessary (read: Pretty much a whole rebuild) but there is still back an forth and whining from the locals. Interesting story to follow. The Twins will play there in 2017, but nothing is set in stone for 2018. Part of the problem is that Elizabethton is a small town of 15,000 people or so.

Edited February 14, 2017 by Thrylos

Mike Sixel · February 15, 2017

I have him as 3rd overall.

I hear that "lack of game-power" and I see a .264 isoP from Diaz, same league same team same year where everyone's latest greatest, Kirilloff, has .146 isoP, and wonder how people would feel about Kirilloff's dismal game-power, as a comparison. /sarcasm.

Plenty of game power

Kiriloff isn't destined to be a DH, is he?

Thrylos · February 15, 2017

Kiriloff isn't destined to be a DH, is he?

Maybe. Lower fielding percentage than Sano at RF this season and fewer stolen bases as well.

Kirillof's fielding tool is not that great either....

Sign In

TD Top Prospects: #10 Lewin Diaz

Twins Video

Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

Recent Twins Articles

Recent Twins Videos

Community Blogs

Forum Topics

Twins Top Prospects

User Feedback

Recommended Comments

Featured Comments

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Guest

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Guest

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Link to comment

Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

Create an account

Sign in

Do you approve of Twins ownership?