Stealing the Show: Why Twins Should Prioritize Stolen Bases in 2024

A good person is someone who attempts to live a sound moral life in an entirely corrupt world. That means avoiding the temptation of morally corrupt actions like fraud, violence, lying, and theft and instead doing what is right in the name of actively attempting to be a good person. 

Though this is a valuable and essential standard of life to pursue, one of these morally corrupt acts has an entirely different meaning when discussing baseball: theft. Also known as "stealing" in the baseball lexicon, attempting to swipe a base is a perfectly reasonable and even encouraged act to engage and dabble with. 

Unfortunately, the Twins have been one of the more steal-averse teams in baseball since Rocco Baldelli took over as manager in 2019. To add context, here is where the Twins have ranked in stolen bases as a team each season since 2019:

• 2019 - 28 (30th in MLB)
• 2020 - 14 (30th in MLB)
• 2021 - 54 (25th in MLB)
• 2022 - 38 (30th in MLB)
• 2023 - 86 (24th in MLB)

Three out of the last five seasons, the Twins have finished in last place in stolen bases in Major League Baseball. The highest the Twins have finished was in 24th place, which is still in the bottom half of the league. 

Twins utility player Willi Castro led the team with 33 stolen bases (SB), and if it weren't for Castro the Twins would have had 53 stolen bases during the 2023 season, which would have been last in Major League Baseball. 

Of course, this isn't an appropriate way to view the situation because Castro played for the Twins and had 33 steals, the butterfly effect, etc. Nonetheless, Castro, the manufacturer of 38% of the Twins stolen bases, puts their unwillingness to attempt to steal them into a fascinating light. 

Castro was incredibly efficient as a base stealer, stealing 33 bases on 38 attempts (87%), and finished 10th in Major League Baseball in total steals. What is interesting about Castro being a highly efficient base stealer is that he possesses an above-average but non-elite 82nd-percentile sprint speed. An 82nd-percentile sprint speed means Castro can cover 28.6 feet/second, but to be considered a player with an elite sprint speed, one needs to be able to cover 30 feet/second. 

So, Castro could efficiently steal a high volume of bases while being a non-elite base runner sprint speed-wise. Interestingly enough, this is the case with a handful of the nine players who stole more bases than Castro:

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves) - 73 SB, 67th-percentile sprint speed
2. Esteury Ruiz (Athletics) - 67 SB, 97th-percentile sprint speed
3. Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) - 54 SB, 99th-percentile sprint speed
4. Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) - 49 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed
5. CJ Abrams (Nationals) - 47 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed
6. Nico Hoerner (Cubs) - 43 SB, 80th-percentile sprint speed
7. Ha-Seong Kim (Padres) - 38 SB, 79th-percentile sprint speed
8. Julio Rodriguez (Mariners) - 37 SB, 96th-percentile sprint speed
9. Elly De La Cruz (Reds) - 35 SB, 100th-percentile sprint speed
10. Willi Castro (Twins) - 33 SB, 82nd-percentile sprint speed

Now, while this list is populated with 97th-to-100th-percentile sprint speed base-stealers in Carroll, Witt Jr., Rodriguez, and De La Cruz, there are more players with non-elite sprint speeds in Acuña Jr. (the league leader in steals), Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and Castro. 

Though these respective players all have differentiating sprint speeds, the one thing they have in common regarding stolen bases is a high number of attempts. 

Here is how many stolen bases (SB), caught stealing (CS), and overall successful stolen base percentage (rounded) the previously listed players had during the 2023 regular season:

1. Acuña Jr. - (73 SB, 14 CS, 84% sucess rate)
2. Ruiz - (67 SB, 13 CS, 84% success rate)
3. Carroll - (54 SB, 5 CS, 92% success rate)
4. Witt Jr. - (49 SB, 15 CS, 77% sucess rate)
5. Abrams - (47 SB, 4 CS, 92% success rate)
6. Hoerner - (43 SB, 7 CS, 86% success rate)
7. Kim - (38 SB, 9 CS, 81% success rate)
8. Rodriguez - (37 SB, 10 CS, 79% success rate)
9. De La Cruz - (35 SB, 8 CS, 81% success rate)
10. Castro - (33 SB, 5 CS, 87% success rate)

Every player listed has at least 40 stolen base attempts and a success rate of over 75%. Having this many players steal such a high number of bases at an over 75% success rate is astonishing, and much of this phenomenon likely has to do with the MLB increasing the size of the bases from 15 square inches to 18 square inches and limiting pitchers to two pick-off attempts per plate appearance. 

The MLB and its consultants brainstormed and eventually created and implemented these rules to revitalize what was a dying art of stealing bases, and they have accomplished exactly that.

Teams like the Cincinnati Reds (190 stolen bases in 2023), Arizona Diamondbacks (166 stolen bases in 2023), and divisional foe Kansas City Royals (163 stolen bases in 2023) have taken full advantage of these rule changes, and the Twins should heavily consider doing the same.

Not only did the Red, Diamondbacks, and Royals have three of the best base stealers in the MLB during the 2023 regular season in the previously mentioned De La Cruz, Carroll, and Witt Jr., respectively, but they also had complementary players who similarly stole a high volume of bases.

For example, the Reds had TJ Friedl with 27 stolen bases and a 73rd-percentile sprint speed, the Diamondbacks had Jake McCarthy with 26 stolen bases and a 98th-percentile sprint speed, and the Royals had Dairon Blanco with 24 stolen bases and a 100th-percentile sprint speed.

To complement Castro and his 33 stolen bases, the Twins had Michael A. Taylor with 13 steals and an 85th-percentile sprint speed. An 85th-percentile sprint speed is in no way lackluster, but the drop off in total number of stolen bases from Friedl, McCarthy, and Blanco to Taylor is significant. 

To further emphasize how the Twins didn't adequately attempt to steal bases beyond Castro, here are the Twins who finished in third through fifth place leaders in stolen bases with their sprint speed percentiles:

• 3rd: Byron Buxton - 9 SB, 94th-percentile sprint speed
• 4th: Royce Lewis - 6 SB, 73rd-percentile sprint speed
• 5th: Andrew Stevenson - 4 SB, 93rd-percentile sprint speed

The point of this exercise isn't to be hypercritical of the Twins and their unwillingness to steal bases at the same rate as other teams with fast players but rather to show that they have players with similar above-average and even elite sprint speeds to teams that steal at a high rate like the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. 

Taylor and Stevenson might not be members of the Twins' 2024 Opening Day 26-man roster, but Castro, Buxton, and Lewis will be. The Twins will also have players who can adequately steal bases in Jorge Polanco (55th-percentile sprint speed), Edouard Julien (41st-percentile sprint speed), Max Kepler (52nd-percentile sprint speed), and potentially speedy utility player Austin Martin. Utility player Nick Gordon (49th-percentile sprint speed) is also a capable base stealer, but whether he will make the Twins' 2024 Opening Day roster is in great question.

Castro, Buxton, and potentially Martin are adequate base-stealing options and should be attempting steals at a higher rate. As evidenced by their sprint speeds, Lewis, Polanco, Julien, and Kepler are not elite base-stealing options, but Acuña Jr. just stole 73 bases with a 67th-percentile sprint speed by masterfully mixing an opportunistic mindset with a high baserunning IQ.

It would be a dramatic waste of time to suggest that the Twins begin attempting steal bases at the same rate as the Reds, Diamondbacks, and Royals. Instead, the Twins should aspire to become a middle-of-the-pack base-stealing team and steal 100 or more bases, which they have yet to do since stealing 135 bases in 2012.

Acuña Jr., Abrams, Hoerner, Kim, and current Twins utility player Castro prove that players can be highly effective base stealers despite not having elite sprint speeds. The Twins have capable base stealers, and it would be in their best interest to become a team that attempts to steal more often during the 2024 season.

Should the Twins attempt to steal more often in 2024? Who do you think should attempt to steal bases besides Castro? Comment below.