Should the Twins Make a Last-Minute Push for One of These Veteran First Basemen?

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Star Tribune's Bobby Nightengale published an article titled "Twins, granted a little more money to spend, seek to fortify roster depth." In the piece, Nightengale touched on how president of baseball operations Derek Falvey convinced executive vice president Joe Pohlad to provide the front office with extra spending space (thank you, kind overlords), and how the club used those resources on left-handed reliever Danny Coulombe and right-handed hitting outfielder Harrison Bader. Nightengale also noted that the club is pursuing a veteran backup shortstop (mentioning Paul DeJong and Luis Urías as candidates, although as we remarked last week, Urías is not a shortstop, so they clearly mean "infielder", more generally). The hope there is to ensure Willi Castro avoids burnout, which they believe stunted his ability to produce at the plate late last season

Lost in Nightengale's comprehensive overview, however, was the beat writer noting, "The Twins are seeking a first baseman without any proven options on their roster." Interestingly, a day before Nightengale's story was published, fellow Twins beat reporter Dan Hayes of The Athletic noted that Minnesota thinks Castro could help them at first base next season, despite him having never played the position in 11 years of professional baseball.

Now, you, valued reader, might be thinking numerous things. The first, presumably, is, "I've been reading this article for roughly a minute now, and all you've done is aggregate other peoples' work, Cody." And to that, I say: Fair, but I promise I'm going somewhere with this. The second thing you're thinking might be, "Why would Minnesota consider playing Castro at first base? Doesn't that cannibalize much of his value?" And the answer to that, valued reader, is yes. Yes, it does. Castro doesn't possess the offensive profile needed to provide plus value at the position, meaning that although extra versatility from the already uber-versatile 27-year-old utility player would be a welcome development, much of what makes him truly special is that he can function as a viable backup shortstop and center fielder.

That being the case, the club deciding to push him off those two positions to decrease wear and tear could be a lose-lose proposition for both parties. The team would be wise to keep Castro in his current role, meaning that instead of pursuing a player like DeJong or Urías, the front office should instead use its remaining monetary resources on a viable first baseman who could function as a platoon partner for José Miranda or usurp him as the starter. Unfortunately, not many intriguing names are available on the free-agent market.

Top free agent first basemen Christian Walker, Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt, and Carlos Santana have all signed elsewhere. Realistically, the Twins were never a practical landing spot for these four players at the prices they commanded, even though Santana spent last season with the team. The secondary market is also drained, with Donovan Solano, Connor Joe, and Josh Bell having found their new homes, as well. Mark Canha is still an intriguing option. That said, Bader being in the mix seemingly makes signing Canha a redundant proposition, as a significant portion of his playing time would need to come in the corner outfield. Trading for a plus bat with team control, like Triston Casas, could make sense. Yet, Minnesota would likely be too uncomfortable parting with the prospect capital necessary to pry the star first baseman from the Boston Red Sox's grip.

That being the case, the Twins' front office has two realistic options to meaningfully improve the position before spring training begins: Justin Turner or Anthony Rizzo. Both multi-time All Stars, Turner and Rizzo are nearing the ends of their respective MLB careers. The two cherished veterans have (understandably) regressed significantly since their peak seasons nearly a decade ago. Still, both could provide value to a club with postseason aspirations, at a very reasonable cost.

Last season, Turner and Rizzo produced the following numbers:

• Turner: .259/.354/.383, 539 plate appearances, 119 hits, 11 home runs, 24 doubles, 17.6% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate, 117 wRC+
• Rizzo: .228/.301/.335, 375 plate appearances, 77 hits, 8 home runs, 12 doubles, 17.3% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate, 84 wRC+

Turner was the far superior hitter last season. Even taking splits into account, he simply outplayed the younger man. Against right-handed pitching, Turner posted a 116 wRC+ over 398 plate appearances. Conversely, Rizzo generated a nearly-league-average 92 wRC+ over 278 plate appearances when he had what should have been a platoon advantage. Turner is the player the Twins should pursue, if they are seeking a plus bat at the position. That said, the team's decision-making process might not be that simple.

Yes, the front office did already add close to $10 million in new money to this roster last week. However, uncertainty surrounds how much more they could add as the offseason dwindles. Urías might be had even on a split contract worth just over $1 million, but that's for a good reason: He's batted .193/.324/.336 since the start of 2023 and spent most of 2024 in the minors. DeJong could cost $3-4 million, after making $1.9 million in 2024 and hitting 24 home runs.

Turner will likely cost somewhere in the $5-7 million range, meaning the veteran could be out of the club's price range even with ownership becoming unexpectedly charitable last week. If that is the case, Rizzo (projected to net a one-year deal in the same range as DeJong's, given his seemingly increasing decrepitude) could become the team's only plausible option, even if Turner is the more intriguing candidate.

Again, Miranda is projected to be the team's primary first baseman next season. However, the team would be wise to find a veteran partner to split time with the 26-year-old. Minnesota has already acquired Mickey Gasper and Mike Ford as first base depth options. Yet, significant questions shroud their ability to produce at the major-league level. If the team were to spend its remaining resources on a veteran first baseman, Turner would be the best option, given that he is a superior hitter to Rizzo at this stage of their careers. However, the team could be priced out of Turner, making Rizzo the only viable candidate. Rizzo isn't what he used to be. Yet, signing him would raise the floor at the position, meaning the team wouldn't have to rely on Gasper, Ford, or Edouard Julien if Miranda were to get injured for an extended stretch or undergo significant performance concerns next season. He's also a respected clubhouse presence, and could replace some of what the team lost in that area when Santana returned to Cleveland.

Whether the Twins have enough for Turner or need to settle for Rizzo, that's where their resources should be directed. A deeper, higher-floor first base role is a greater need than a backup infielder with a relatively low floor, which is what both DeJong and Urías are at this point.