Rosenthal: Twins Agree to Deal With Addison Reed

A very good deal. I still think Hughes can help and they need to get something out of him with that big salary. I don't like the Duke signing but we will see. Maybe Duffy can do well in long relief like he did this year. I don't see them keeping both Granite and Adrianza on the ML roster as both are weak on power numbers. One more starter should do it.

And the plus to the Reed signing is now say if Rodney is the closer and he closes 2 straight games and he needs a day off, they should be able to plop Reed into the 9th inning seamlessly. We had too many examples last season of having pitchers go multiple games without breaks (Belisle, Rogers).

I think the effect that you are talking about reaches further. Many times both Rodney and Reed will be used on the same days. The Twins now have guys like Hildenberger or Rogers as the 4th-6th best options in the bullpen. A bullpen is only as strong as the middle guys (3rd-5th guys) imo. Losing a lead in the 7th is only slightly less damaging than losing a game in the 9th.

 

Tom Petty: “The waiting is the hardest part.”

Jack Johnson, 2005: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing".

I don't think the idea of a closer is in and of itself outdated...but I do think the value that many teams, managers and fans still place on the role of closer is definitely outdated.

To me it's about the 1 run saves?  a guy with an ERA of 5.50 is gonna save the vast majority of 2 and 3 run games, heck they would also save a solid majority of 1 run games.  If you think a certain lesser relief pitcher will handle the pressure better then others that makes sense, but if the heart of the order is coming up in a 1 run game I would hope you go with your best available option.  Who knows Rodney might pitch differently with the Twins outfield defense and not try to be to cute and get a few more strikeouts and become a top option.  The same could be said for Reed or Duke.

I don't think the idea of a closer is in and of itself outdated...but I do think the value that many teams, managers and fans still place on the role of closer is definitely outdated.

 

I agree with you completely about how to utilize your best reliever (Reed), but I still like having one guy in that defined closer role, and I want that guy to have the right skill set to succeed in that role. Kintzler is a great example that we're all familiar with of a guy with less-than-stellar stuff who slotted in well as closer.

 

Rodney has less-than-stellar stuff at this point in his career, but I don't want to just go off of stats and honesty haven't watched him pitch enough the past few years to know how well his skill set matches up with what I want in a closer.

In a one run game, you want your best reliever on the mound in the ninth. However, the ninth inning lead is irrelevant if you give up the lead earlier in the game. If it's more than a one run game, a league-average reliever will suffice. The difference between an average reliever and an elite closer in a three-run game, at best, is one blown save a season. For a two run lead, the difference is two blown saves a year. So you certainly would rather have your relief ace in the ninth, but if the game is on the line earlier, it is much more logical to use him earlier. Glen Perkins said that back in 2011 when he was the 7th inning guy. He said he probably saved as many games in the 7th as the revolving door of crappy closers saved in the 9th. So while it's definitely nice to have a "proven closer," I agree with Brian Kenny, Keith Law, Bill James, and all the other "statheads" that there is a more logical approach.

Slightly bigger point to 2019

 

Reed $8.5M (Guesstimate on how contract is broken down)

Castro $8M

Santana $14M option (with vesting?)

Rodney $.25M

Pineda $8M

Hughes $13.2M

Park $3M (unless someone can show where it has been voided)

 

Sorry to say but that's $54.95M for those 7...3 of who may not contribute at all

 

Just a little sun shower on an otherwise Bright Sunshiny Day!

I see you added Reed to your calculations.

Park requested out of his contract, so the Twins will not be paying him this year or next, according to this article:

http://mengnews.joins.com/view.aspx?aid=3041292

Santana’s 2019 option vests with 400 IP between 2017 and 2018, including 200 in 2018. He pitched 211 in 2017, so if he gets 200 imthis year, it will vest. Since he turned 30, he has hit 200IP two out of five years. I’m guessing it’s 50-50 at best that option vests.

Just saw a tidbit here about Reed http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/ben-frederickson/questions-benfred-on-stl-sports/collection_4882833c-1aef-5fd1-995a-1bef5729a101.html

Speculation that many teams had reservations about Addison Reed's workload the last couple years.  I haven't really paid much attention, but the article stated he seemed close to signing with 'multiple' teams, only to have the deals fall through.  
 

Jack Johnson, 2005: "Sitting, Waiting, Wishing".

Buddy Holly, 1957: “Crying, Waiting, Hoping.”

To Falvey: The Dip, 2015: "Don't Make Me Wait"