Report From The Fort: Peeking Ahead At Payroll

2 Let's see how many of the starting pitcher prospects deserve to start in 2019 before deciding on options.

 

If I had to guess, I would guess that options will be declined on Gibson and Santana.

 

I would concur that re-signing Dozier would be nice, but shouldn't be a high priority since:

 

- one place where the Twins farm is particularly strong is middle infield, and

 

- scoring runs will not be a problem.

 

By the way, does anyone have a guess what starting pitcher free agents might be available in 2019?

 

2 Let's see how many of the starting pitcher prospects deserve to start in 2019 before deciding on options.

If I had to guess, I would guess that options will be declined on Gibson and Santana.

I would concur that re-signing Dozier would be nice, but shouldn't be a high priority since:

- one place where the Twins farm is particularly strong is middle infield, and

- scoring runs will not be a problem.

By the way, does anyone have a guess what starting pitcher free agents might be available in 2019?

You can find next seasons FA's here.

 

I'm not as confident as many seem to be that removing Dozier's bat from the lineup will have little effect on run scoring. The drop from him to Gordon will likely be significant.

So...we help pay for and build a new park...Pohlad's take in $51M more in revenue first year at Target Field

 

1st year of Mauer's big deal is only time 50% payroll threshold has been breached (or remotely approached) 

 

They used to get by on $96M after Player Payroll...the last few years it's been $140M

 

I thought recycling rain water and LED lights were supposed to save overhead?

 

And that's not even taking into account the $50M from Bam-BamTech sale to Mickey & Minnie

 

Anyway...Here's a link to another payroll tool

 
Make a copy of it start typing in Lance Lynn and select his name an the out-of-touch with the current market MLBTR projection will fill in 42$14M per (bet Lance would take that in a heartbeat)
 
If you want to enter your own numbers, enter the full number ($14000000 for 14M) and the totals will add up correctly

 

It may seem weird to say now but there's a good chance the Twins won't be looking for a starting pitcher next offseason. Here are their available options, and some of them either have a good track record or are promising prospects:

 

- Santana

- Berrios

- Mejia

- Gibson (likely gone unless he really breaks out, IMO)

- Pineda (easy to forget but he's a pretty good pitcher)

- Odorizzi

- Gonsalves

- Romero

Bite your tongue (though you are almost assuredly right)

 

P.S.  You forgot May,

The Twins have run under 48% opening day payroll for the past decade except one season. Revenue vs. Opening Day Payroll.

2009 - $162M vs. $66M = 41%

2010 - $213M vs. $97M = 46%

2011 - $213M vs. $113M = 53%

2012 - $214M vs. $94M = 44%

2013 - $221M vs. $76M = 34%

2014 - $223M vs. $86M = 39%

2015 - $240M vs. $109M = 45%

2016 - $249M vs. $108M = 43%

2017 - $249M vs. $108M = 43%

2018 - $249M? vs. $118M = 47%

 

Revenue from:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/196669/revenue-of-the-minnesota-twins-since-2006/

and

https://www.forbes.com/teams/minnesota-twins/

 

Payroll from:

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm#2016_payroll

 

At this point, with this owner, I think it's unreasonable to expect the Twins to approached the expected target for MLB team expenditures.

Assuming your numbers are correct. . I never expect the Twins to be able to compete with NY, LA, Cubs, etc year to year on big contracts. Nor spend uselessly in a down cycle, aka tanking. That said, I still have always thought the Pohlads were particularly tight fisted when it came to financially backing the purchase of a FA who could be a season changer. That's been my constant complaint about ownership. But these percentages are consistently low over that cycle. I can live with some 43% some years, but you better be banking that money for the 55% years when you want to make a run at it! Edited March 8, 2018 by Platoon

So, if player salaries need to run about 48-52%, does anyone know what expenses eat up the remaining @50% on an MLB team?

 

In restaurants, accountants break things down roughly:  food costs @30%, labor @35%, facility/utilities @10%, F.F.E. @5%, overhead/inventory @5%, marketing @5%, profit @10%. In a good year.

 

MLB teams have a ton of people, MiLB players, scouts/coaches/admin, equipment, marketing, travel, facilities, and on and on. And the owner will want to make money, millions likely, every year.

 

Though, the main way to make money in sports franchising is to buy the team low, i.e. @$250M, and sell it high, i.e. @$400M.

 

Be interesting to see their target percentages across the board.