Re-Grading All 9 of the Twins' 2025 Trade Deadline Deals One Year Later

Brandon · August 12

23 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Everyone agrees Lackey is one of our top 3 prospects and has immense value. We don't get him without trading Duran, Varland ect.

Jax for Bradley - A+ How this can be coded as anything less is bizarre. It appears we have a #1 pitcher for 3+ more years that we gave up a disgruntled reliever with 1+ year of control.

Mendez for Bader - A Bader was a rental and we flipped him for a legit MLB bat. Yes there is some defensive questions but you took a minimal asset and currently have a real asset in the minors on the doorstep of the MLB. There is also upside if he can continue to hit more fly balls.

Duran for Tait and Abel - A - I will likely be higher on this trade than most and most of the value is coming from Abel. He was showing some real flashes of potentially being a dominant pitcher. The stuff is legit and he has more value than most expected from him. Yes he was injured but for a young pitcher that is par for the course. As to Tait - I am actually trending more optimistic.  Tait for June and July has the following slash line .248/.280/.500 12 Home Runs. For a 19 year old catcher that is really really impressive. The power has shown up which is his biggest tool. He needs to become a little more selective decreasing his strikeouts and increasing his Walks but for a player that was really far away with a high variance of probabilities those variances are decreasing significantly.

Varland - Rojas and Roden B - Varland has become a stud for Toronto and I am happy for him. However Rojas arm talent for moving forward is likely #3 in the Twins system behind Bradley and Abel and slightly ahead of Priellip. The question is walks. I do think he is more of a starter pitcher as it can take him an inning to develop control which actually is better for the upside of this trade. If Rojas is a starter we likely win this trade. Roden at this point is a 4th outfielder. He has shown he doesn't shy from the biggest moments. His OPS is low but his winning single was 2 feet from being a homerun which would have increased to about .600. In either case his value and ceiling has decreased slightly. Varland in my opinion is the key reason why we got Lackey. Plus as we have seen you can find bullpen arms.

Castro for Gallagher and Armstrong A - Gallagher was a pop up arm that is likely one of the next arms in our depth for the MLB level. He has really settled down in AAA. Its not eye popping stuff but it is extremely effective. Again we are getting a likely MLB player for a 2 month rental.

The rest of the trades were fluff. Bit pieces for bit pieces and dumping Correa's contract.

Overall Trade Deadline grade A+ - I have come from the opinion that Baldelli had lost the clubhouse and this team needed a reset. If cleaning the clubhouse out of some of those personalities and setting up for the next wave was the way they saw out - I am ok with it. As to the players we have received I don't know how anyone can not be impressed. Bradley alone was worth it. We have a #1 pitcher likely for the next 3 years. Abel looks like a legit starter. Rojas has flashed. Gallagher and Mendez both look like legit MLB players and Tait the youngest and further away still has immense potential for the catcher position. The biggest win was getting Lackey. We potentially have a HOF player that was achieved by tanking. We got rid of an entire bullpen other than Sands. The other point is that we have rebuilt a bullpen in less than a year that overall is pretty solid. Now we did give up a decent arm in Dasan Hill but otherwise its primarily been bit pieces. Gomez and Morris have been real finds. I always anticipated we would need to spend money signing free agents and trading for players. That we ended up achieving this with effectively spending zero dollars in free agency and 1 decent prospect is pretty impressive. The next window is going to be largely open due to this trade deadline and doing a lot of heavy lifting on the pitching side.

I think Tait will either be a future 1B or part of a valuable trade for us in the future. Next season he should be ready for AA.

Gallagher will be another lefty in the pen,

I'm pretty high on Rojas. I think he could be a #2 or 3 starter.

The thing with Varland and Duran is it seems like they are higher risk pitchers in that their effectiveness looks to drop quickly as their heat deteriorates. But they would be nice to have on this year's staff.

I think the Twins did a good job overall at the deadline. I pretty much agree with your grades as well I still don't understand the Brock Stewart trade and I feel like the Twins could have saved a few more million on the salary dump of Correa. But getting a #1 and potentially 2#3 starters is really a good return for a bullpen

Major League Ready · August 12

2 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I think Tait will either be a future 1B or part of a valuable trade for us in the future. Next season he should be ready for AA.

Gallagher will be another lefty in the pen,

I'm pretty high on Rojas. I think he could be a #2 or 3 starter.

The thing with Varland and Duran is it seems like they are higher risk pitchers in that their effectiveness looks to drop quickly as their heat deteriorates. But they would be nice to have on this year's staff.

I think the Twins did a good job overall at the deadline. I still don't understand the Brock Stewart trade and I feel like the Twins could have saved a few more million on the salary dump of Correa. But getting a #1 and potentially 2#3 starters is really a good return for a bullpen

Gallagher is a RHP.

Hawkeye Bean Counter · August 12

Just now, Brandon said:

I think Tait will either be a future 1B or part of a valuable trade for us in the future. Next season he should be ready for AA.

Gallagher will be another lefty in the pen,

I'm pretty high on Rojas. I think he could be a #2 or 3 starter.

The thing with Varland and Duran is it seems like they are higher risk pitchers in that their effectiveness looks to drop quickly as their heat deteriorates. But they would be nice to have on this year's staff.

I think the Twins did a good job overall at the deadline. I still don't understand the Brock Stewart trade and I feel like the Twins could have saved a few more million on the salary dump of Correa. But getting a #1 and potentially 2#3 starters is really a good return for a bullpen

If you look at the Stuart and Varland trade as getting rid of good bullpen arms to purposefully lose for 2 months its not very difficult to understand the game plan. Stuart was dumped and that is clear as day. It didn't matter with traded for peanuts or DFA'd we were getting rid of any decent bullpen arm.

Brandon · August 12

3 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Gallagher is a RHP.

Oops. I thought he was a lefty that threw 94. Oh well. He is still destined for the pen.

Brandon · August 12

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

If you look at the Stuart and Varland trade as getting rid of good bullpen arms to purposefully lose for 2 months its not very difficult to understand the game plan. Stuart was dumped and that is clear as day. It didn't matter with traded for peanuts or DFA'd we were getting rid of any decent bullpen arm.

The Varland trade ,I think was about moving a high variance pitcher, who seemed to be walking a tightrope as a 99 mph straight fastball reliever. A little slower and he gets bombed pretty regularly compared to the potential of Rojas. Rojas still looks really good. I am not knocking the trade as much as lamenting losing a well liked player.

mnfireman · August 12

Stewart hasn't stayed healthy enough to make a difference for LAD, the same would be true if he was still here.

Major League Ready · August 12

25 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Oops. I thought he was a lefty that threw 94. Oh well. He is still destined for the pen.

His FB velocity is 90-92 so that will be an issue but his command is good. Maybe they could pull a little more velo out of him as a RP.

saviking · August 12

I give the Correa trade an A+++ .. Can you imagine where we would be with Correa's extra 70 million keeping us from signing players.

Gallagher seems like he might have what it takes to become a good bullpen arm.

And Tait is still very young. He just hit his 20th homeruj even though he's batting in the .220's. Plus no telling how many homeruns he will hit by seasons end. Even though he may not have the defensive chops to stick at catcher I coukd see Tait as our DH of the future with potentially 30 homerun capability.

Jeff K · August 12

While it felt terrible at the time, I was fine with all of the trades with the common exception of Varland which inexplicably truly angered me. And I still don't like it. I loved the Bradley trade at the time and love it even more now. I take it from an A to an A+. Regarding Rocco, I don't care what he does for the rest of his career; he was a terrible manager with the Twins and seemed to get worse each season. His spreadsheet management was terrible.

Richie the Rally Goat · August 13

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

If you just want to get drunk RIGHT NOW! Moonshine will do the trick.

If you'd like a certain smoothness to your whiskey... it'll need to sit in an oak barrel awhile.

This article seems to be missing the required dose of patience.

Bourbon is aged 4 years or more? What’s the target period here?

DocBauer · August 13

On 8/11/2026 at 8:52 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

if Cinderella's shoe fit perfectly, why did it fall off and the Louis Varland trade.

Because when midnight struck, she was suddenly in "horror mode". And in horror movies, BBT.

Forgive me gang, I didn't make this up. It's darkly funny. And if you've watched a collection of horror movies in your day, you will understand and laugh. But please don't kill the messenger here.

BBT= Bitches Be Tripping.

Again, darkly funny and I didn't make it up

DocBauer · August 13

OK, it's really ridiculous to try and quantify these trades so soon. But I'm willing to bite regardless.

1] I didn't like moving Jax, but the younger Bradley, and a SP, and how he's looked? Big win. Awesome that Jax has become a decent SP for Tampa. But I don't need to make a grade here. The Twins win.

2] Bader was traded for a LH HITTING MACHINE who can also get OB and has power potential? The only question is where does he fit? The BAT plays. But is he a DH only? Or can he learn to become a competent corner OF or 1B? Considering the future construction of the Twins roster, is he more valuable as a trade chip? Do we really need a grade here? The Twins won.

3] Paddack got moved for a young, low A catcher who has the potential to be a decent bat, with some pop/power and a strong arm with a good sense of how to call a game. He's looked good since he was aquired, but it's a major bummer he's hurt now. He probably projects as a really solid #2 at the ML level. But for an impending, mediocre FA pitcher, again a win for the Twins.

**small note: If Paddack would get out of his own way and just accept a shot at being a full time RP, he might be able to continue his career.**

4] I became a fan of Correa for MANY reasons. And I find it almost absurd that removing him suddenly from the team was a positive? And I don't mean TD opinions. But I've read enough articles offering innuendo, that I start to wonder. REGARDLESS, the ONLY real problem here was NOT taking advantage of the $20M saved to re-invest in the 2026 Twins. Deciding to move on, let younger players play, and save $20M is fine. But the Twins might be leading the ALC today if that $20M was used on the bullpen.

Oops, I forgot the ownership didn't know their payroll before TP took over.

Sorry, I just couldn't resist a DIG! But the truth is, the $20M savings on the Correa deal MIGHT add to TP's promise for a greater payroll in 2027. So MAYBE there's a positive outcome here? Moving Lee to 3B, promoting K-Pepper and actually using that $20M next season? Maybe that turns out to be a win. No grade here because of YTB.

5] Castro for Gallagher and Armstrong is a positive IMO. I'm not sure how many readers and followers realize that Gallagher was a 6th round pick by the Cubs in 2024. He didn't debut until 2025, where he started at A+ and was moved very soon to AA. That's when the Twins got him. And while his numbers at AAA with St Paul are kinda nasty, he's really been very good his last few starts. And he's only in his 2nd professional season. He's probably a #4-5 SP option. But even that is a great outcome for a trade for a rental player.

I honestly have no opinion on Armstrong at this point. But does it matter? The Twins got a potential back end SP for a couple months rental. Again, do we need a grade here?

6] Coulombe for Horn. OK, we traded a LHRP who's always been best for the Twins, more or less, for a flyer on a LH arm that might be his replacement with more upside. We haven't really seen much of horn so far due to injury. He's got a live arm if he's healthy again in 2027. He might surprise. But we didn't lose anything here. The Twins signed Rogers foe 1 more season. He's pretty much taken over the Coulombe role. And he's been better than his ERA overall.

But this is kind of a "nothing to see here" unless Horn is healthy in '27 and starts to shine. This was a dart shot for a LH arm that MIGHT turn out in a couple of years.

There's no winner here unless Horn is healthy and gets his act together.

7] Stewart for Outman was a joke from day 1. The Dodgers were HOPING to get a few quality IP before his arm fell off. Which it did. It doesn't matter that Stewart's arm fell off. The Twins LOSE this trade BIG TIME because the FO was so stubborn, so limited in thinking, dare I say stupid, that they didn't trust their OWN prospects vs a failed 28yo plus player who had no future

You want a grade? This one is an F- if there is such a thing. It's debating who was in charge of this deal, but it doesn't matter. Its a throwaway deal anyway.

Because Zole was in charge when ST happened. And he SHOULD have been smart enough in his new role to shove Outman aside and run with Rodriguez. He might have even kept Roden as a 4th OF. But should have KNOWN Rodriguez was ready, and out of options. And he SHOULD of followed the path of the Brewers, the Rays, and the Guardians to allow a top prospect to learn on the job. Instead he followed the Falvey BS idea of veteran depth and set the potential roster back months.

So this is a clear F grade on how things were handled. And I lost immediate trust in Zole.

8] I'd rather have Duran and pay him, but I kinda understand this deal. IF the Twins actually signed a couple solid FA BP arms, this deal would make even more sense. The truth is Abel has looked like a potential stud top of the rotation arm before his injury. It's silly to give up on Tait with his bat, power, and strong arm so early as a 20yr old at A+.

A healthy Abel looks like a potential rotation stud. By himself, he might make the Duran trade good. Tait, a couple years from now could be a powerful catcher or 1B. That's an outstanding return of a quality SP and a powerful catcher/1B option.

I'm not going to put lipstick on a pig and say this was a great trade. But even if Tait doesn't turn out, but a healthy Abel comes back next season and builds on what he showed this season, it MIGHT make this trade at least neutral. A WIN if Abel reaches his potential. An even bigger WIN IF Tait reaches his BAT potential as a catcher or future 1B.

I still think Abel is the key factor In this trade.

9] The Varland trade should have never happened. That's my F grade. Roden has a chance to be a solid 4th OF. And I can't deny the potential of Rojas. But is he the next Santana/Soriano, or is he just a very good, potentially dominate RP?

BUT, Rojas has a chance to make an F turn out to be an A if the Twins figure out what to do with him.

Riverbrian · August 13

7 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Bourbon is aged 4 years or more? What’s the target period here?

To be fair... you should give them as long as you give other veteran bourbons.

However... due to a 26 barrel limitation in the clubhouse... we both know that decision times will be forced when a smooth scotch like Buxton comes off the IL. So you choose the best you can when time and space forces a decision.

To answer your question more specifically.

I'd say... long enough to increase the sample so a 3 for 3 day doesn't raise his OPS 124 points.

alexlegge · August 13

The Varland trade cannot be in the same discussion as any other trade.

Are there are non-zero chances that Rojas or even Roden could be important role players or valuable trade chips in the near future? Of course. But they both still have an awful lot to prove.

Meanwhile, we gave up a guy from the Twin Cities who sure as heck looked like one of the best relievers in the game at the time and was under team control until 2031.

The only difference now is that instead of looking like "one of the best relievers in the game," he's rivaling Mason Miller for the best reliever in the game. He would rank third on the 2026 Twins in bWAR or fWAR. Using either metric, he's been more valuable than Gómez and Morris combined, and that holds true even if we're discounting Gómez's negative WAR as a Ray. Varland basically looks like peak Joe Nathan. Not having him - irrespective of all other trades from last year - is literally the difference between us being in contention currently and us being clear odds-on favorites for the third wild-card spot.

The move seemed very bad and rushed because it was very bad and rushed. Even if you consider a D to be a failing grade, there are still several gradations of failures possible. The Varland trade is better than the 4 out of 100 I once heard about in a college chemistry course (apparently one student just drew dinosaur cartoons for every answer and didn't write their name). But it's not a 'just below passing' kind of fail either. It's more worthy of a 41% and a "see me after class" note.

alexlegge · August 13

On 8/11/2026 at 11:08 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Everyone agrees Lackey is one of our top 3 prospects and has immense value. We don't get him without trading Duran, Varland ect.

We probably wouldn't have landed Lackey without last year's deadline. But to say the same thing about any one of those trades individually is inaccurate. Even if we're being generous to Varland or Duran by assuming that they would've kept up the same performance - or better - compared to the first four months of the 2025 season, there's zero chance that the Twins would've leapfrogged more than two other teams in the draft lottery, and vanishingly small chance that they would've leapfrogged more than one. Either way, we're not talking about a direct change in draft order - we're talking about slight changes in the weights of ping pong balls which make the possibility of a draft order change roughly five percent more likely.

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Re-Grading All 9 of the Twins' 2025 Trade Deadline Deals One Year Later

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