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Unfortunately, contingency planning in center field has been a constant consideration for the Twins front office over the past decade. In 2023, their backup plan worked out beautifully, as Michael A. Taylor was able to step in and deliver with the oft-injured starter once again unavailable.
This year the Twins are going in a different direction in the backup role, while hoping the starter can at long last buck a long-running negative trend. Perhaps no position on the roster exposes us all to a wider range of outcomes.
TWINS CENTER FIELDERS AT A GLANCE
Starter: Byron Buxton
Backup: Manuel Margot
Depth: Willi Castro, Austin Martin, DaShawn Keirsey
Prospects: Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodríguez, Brandon Winokur
Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 24th out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 7th out of 30
THE GOOD
Buxton showed up to camp talking a big game about how much better he was feeling, and so far he's been backing it up. In stark contrast to last year, the 30-year-old was able to hit the ground running this spring. He's moving around comfortably and participating in all activities with no issue. He's already made several starts in center, after making zero defensive appearances last spring or summer. Early returns on his latest knee surgery are very promising.
That's huge news. As Bobby Nightengale wrote recently for the Star Tribune, "Twins players and coaches believe a healthy season from Buxton is more impactful than any trade or free agent acquisition," and that belief is warranted. Over the past five years, when playing center field, Buxton has been one of the biggest difference-makers in the major leagues (on a per-game basis). His slugging percentage is 11th-highest among all hitters since 2019; he has the best stolen-base percentage in MLB history; and he's a Platinum Glove winner in center.
It says a lot about Buxton's sheer talent and physical prowess that last year, even while essentially playing on one leg, he still registered 94th-percentile sprint speed and was in the 91st percentile for baserunning value. He also continued to post impressive batted-ball metrics when making contact and managed a career-high walk rate, as he struggled to consistently find his swing.
Buxton is on track to start in center field on Opening Day, which would be a beautiful sight to see. From there, it's going to be touch-and-go all season, as we know, but for Rocco Baldelli and the Twins, a reasonable (albeit optimistic) hope might be to get 100 or so starts from Buxton in the outfield and have him available for the playoffs. It's the type of outcome that would dramatically improve Minnesota's viability as a World Series contender. It's also a major long shot.
THE BAD
Buxton has played 100 games in a single season just once, in a career spanning nine seasons. He's coming off his most depressing campaign yet, ruined by a knee injury that became a chronic problem. For all the good vibes right now, we have to be realistic, and so do the Twins.
That's why they prioritized adding a credible backup option to replace Taylor, even if they waited until spring training was underway to finally pull the trigger. Acquiring Margot gives the Twins a veteran player with 450 career starts in center field, putting a crucial layer of depth between Buxton and the likes of Castro, Martin or Keirsey.
If he's starting once or twice a week in center, and plugging into the corner spots against lefties, Margot should be a fine roster piece. If Buxton goes down again, and Margot is needed as basically an everyday player in center – as Taylor was last year – he'll be stretched. Margot was barely above replacement level for the Rays in 2023, rendering him a salary dump toss-in when Tampa sent Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers. He was 9% worse than average at the plate, same as for his career, and while great in the corners, he's a lesser defender than Buxton or Taylor.
After Margot, the depth chart gets even shakier, with the Nick Gordon trade removing another theoretical option from the mix. Castro is next in line, but very stretched in center. Martin offers an intriguing skill set at the position with his speed and aggressiveness, but we'll see how ready he is. If Buxton doesn't, Martin would be my dark horse candidate to lead the team in center-field starts.
THE BOTTOM LINE
A somewhat healthy Byron Buxton is the difference between the Twins being a top-tier or bottom-tier team in the league in center field. It really is that simple, and the FanGraphs forecast illustrates it well enough. Last year, with Buck sidelined, the Twins ranked 24th among 30 teams in fWAR at the position, even with Taylor playing great defense and hitting 21 bombs. This year, they're projected to be seventh, and that's with Buxton making 350 plate appearances.
That seemingly modest target is one he's reached just twice in his career, leaving us all to dream on what could be if Buxton finally shakes off the injury woes and stays on the field. At least for now, there's legitimate reason to hope and believe.
Catch up on the rest of our position-by-position preview series:
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