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    Only One Spot to Address for 2015?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    At a glance, the title of this article might seem a little outrageous. How could one suggest that a team on track for 90 losses needs so little retooling?

    Well, when you look at the lineup that the Twins fielded on Tuesday night -- one which is very similar to those they've been trotting out regularly in recent weeks -- it's hard to find more than one spot that is going to need to be addressed externally this offseason.

    Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports

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    Here's the lineup that Ron Gardenhire has written out for each of the last three games:

    Danny Santana, CF

    Brian Dozier, 2B

    Joe Mauer, 1B

    Kennys Vargas, DH

    Oswaldo Arcia, RF

    Trevor Plouffe, 3B

    Kurt Suzuki, C

    Eduardo Escobar, SS

    Jordan Schafer, LF

    Each of those players remains under team control for 2015 and, with the exception of Schafer, each has a strong case to deservingly remain a starter going forward.

    There are a few positions that carry some uncertainty, most notably third base and center field (I continue to believe Santana should go to short with Escobar sliding into a utility role), but Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton figure to come along and entrench themselves at some point during the season.

    The only position where the Twins clearly need some help is left field. One possibility is that Aaron Hicks will end up there, but it's a bit hard to count on him at this point. Eddie Rosario is another candidate but he's probably still a ways off.

    So the Twins would be smart to pursue an impact outfielder during the offseason, but the rest of the starting lineup appears to be pretty much locked in. And, similarly, there isn't much room for additions on the pitching staff.

    Sure, preventing runs has once again been an issue for the Twins this year. But are they really going to spend big money on bringing in another starting pitcher when they've already got Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Kyle Gibson, Tommy Milone, Trevor May, Alex Meyer and Mike Pelfrey all set to return to the mix (and Jose Berrios potentially emerging as an option midseason)? At most, I could see the team taking a couple low-cost gambles, but it doesn't make much sense to keep adding guaranteed contracts to that group.

    Ditto for the bullpen. This unit will be bringing back some core members -- Glen Perkins, Casey Fien, Caleb Thielbar, Anthony Swarzak, possibly Brian Duensing -- and they've got a handful of options currently in Triple-A that are at least as appealing as the majority of arms that will be available in free agency.

    With an $85 million payroll this year, the Twins are well below their spending limit, even by their own admission. That means they will have money available to spend this offseason, but as long as there aren't any major changes in the final month, and as long as no one is traded, there will be few places to spend it.

    The takeaways from this overview?

    1) Don't freak out if the Twins don't throw money around this offseason. For the first time in several years, a quiet winter would actually be quite justifiable, because...

    2) The rebuild is finally coming together. Capable young players are starting to fill every position, and that's why -- despite the lack of on-field success -- the final months of this season are proving much more satisfying than years past.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think the Maximum Annual $$ the Twins will offer to any free agent will be somewhere between $10-$15MM.

     

    It seems to take Lester and Scherzer (and Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, oh well) out of the running right away.

     

    But I think there are some realistic targets for the Twins - Shields, Masterson, Bonifacio, Melky, Rasmus, Nori Aoki, Torii, Gavin Floyd, etc.

     

    And of course I would like them to try to sign Yasmani Tomas - but he might be "too expensive" for the Twins' taste.

     

    Shields will make more than $15M.  It may not be 7 years like the younger guys but it will be more than $15.

    diehardtwinsfan

    diehardtwinsfan 14,830

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    The flip side is you never put your chips in the middle, therefore you never win a hand.

     

    I have no problems going all in. You don't do it on a pair of 3s though. As others have said, you do it when you know where your weaknesses are, and you don't have that many. The likelihood of Scherzer finishing out his next deal well are pretty low... He'd provide his best years when the team isn't competitive, and his worst when they are.

    TheLeviathan

    TheLeviathan 20,987

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    The Twins should be in the market for a 15-20M dollar player, even if it takes a 7-10 year deal to do it.  They can afford it and have set themselves up with staggered contracts to be able to afford it.

     

    Frankly, if they don't match the effort last year, it will be a serious step backward for the Front Office IMO.

    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

     

    I have no problems going all in. You don't do it on a pair of 3s though. As others have said, you do it when you know where your weaknesses are, and you don't have that many. The likelihood of Scherzer finishing out his next deal well are pretty low... He'd provide his best years when the team isn't competitive, and his worst when they are.

     

    That all makes sense.  A year from now we will know how close we are.  I would think a core rotation of Meyer, Hughes, Gibson, and Nolasco could be one of the better rotations in the AL with the addition of an ace pitcher (assuming Nolasco's year this year was injury induced and he is better than that and Meyer will be good as I believe). 

     

    Then it would require Buxton and Sano to come up and show promise.

    tobi0040

    tobi0040 4,125

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think they can get Ervin Santana for $12M to $15M a season and I like him better than Shields.

     

    I don't dispute that he would be cheaper, but Shields is better in my opinion. The age difference is just one year.  Shields has a career ERA of 3.76.  Ervin is at 4.14.

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Well, it wouldn't be a clone. Buxton, Sano and Meyer -- the org's three best prospects -- are all expected to debut next year, which is kind of a big deal.

     

    This could have also been said at this time last year, how did that work out? 

     

    I'm not a fan of counting chickens before they hatch.

    There is nothing wrong with always trying to upgrade what you actually have right now. The real good teams don't sit back and count on minor league guys to some day come and fill spots. If they are as good as advertised, they will find a place for them, WHEN THEY GET HERE. 

    Richie the Rally Goat

    Richie the Rally Goat 12,434

  • Community Moderator

    • Posted

    Yes, exactly. I would like the following to happen: the Twins refrain from spending big this offseason unless it is on one of the top 5 pitching free agents. So, no spending to replace LF. Wait and save. That means that money should be SAVED now in order to be spent when NEEDED when the team is competitive for real. Just finally, finally, go with the youth movement.

     

    2015 opening day roster barring trades and injuries but dealing/releasing where noted (and I don't care about my consistency over the past month!):

     

    C: Suzuki, Pinto, Herrmann

    1B: Mauer, Vargas

    2B: Dozier (Escobar, Santana, Beresford)

    SS: Escobar (Santana, Beresford)

    3B: Plouffe (Escobar, Beresford)

    LF: Hicks (yes, Hicks), (Ortiz, Herrmann)

    CF: Santana (until Buxton, then decisions need to be made), (Hicks)

    RF: Arcia (Ortiz, Herrmann, Hicks)

    DH: Vargas, (Pinto)

     

    Bench (generally): Pinto, Herrmann, Beresford, Ortiz

     

    Yep. Gone from this are Parmelee, Nunez, and Schafer. Trade for C level prospects who are under 22 and that is a win. All three of those guys could serve as major league bench players, but not for the Twins now.

     

    Starting rotation:

     

    Hughes

    Gibson

    Nolasco

    Meyer (or Milone)

    May (or Milone)

     

    Bullpen:

     

    I still would like some trading to be done as there is just no reason to pay Swarzak and Duensing any more money, for instance. Also, I am surprised Fien wasn't dealt, but for these purposes we will keep him.

    Perkins

    Fien

    C. Johnson

    Oliveros

    Tonkin

    Thielbar

    Deduno/Darnell/K. Johnson

     

    I also think Guerra and Achter could compete here. The big question is going to be: when do Burdi and Z. Jones arrive? Those two will serve as dominant setup men (and there needs to be another dominant lefty somewhere).

    if the Twins do anything, I'd like to see them spend really big on one elite pitcher. If they do two things it would be to sign a good hitting and fielding LF. It appears that the supplementary pieces are there. At least as good as you can gamble on in free agency. This team isn't mature enough to start trading prospects.
    Craig Arko

    Craig Arko 17,314

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Moderator note -- I just deleted about 5 posts from this thread.

     

    The problem began when one poster characterized another poster's opinion as "a lie".  That was a clear violation of TD policy and that poster has been issued an infraction point.

     

    I also deleted related posts, because they were part of a digression from the baseball discussion.

     

    I appreciate everyone's passion here, but people need to remember that we all have the same dream -- a winning team.  We may disagree about how to get there, but we share a common mania.

     

    TD is a place for RESPECTFUL discussion.  All posters must give respect to fellow Twins fans, even when they feel that the other person is clearly wrong.  Feel free to disagree and debate, but make the effort to to follow our policy, which can be found in the TwinsCentric forum.

    Dennett nails it.

     

    http://www.brainpickings.org/index.php/2014/03/28/daniel-dennett-rapoport-rules-criticism/

    Kirby_waved_at_me

    Kirby_waved_at_me 1,047

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Shields will make more than $15M.  It may not be 7 years like the younger guys but it will be more than $15.

    Yeah, You're probably right about that - his 2014 salary is $13.5MM, for some reason I thought it was lower than that.

    I think Shields is probably as expensive as the Twins will be willing to go - maybe they would offer more than $15MM to Shields, but with Nolasco's $12MM/year fresh in the front office's memory, maybe they won't be willing to bid higher.

    I don't think it's the right move, it's just what I have come to expect from the Twins, they are not likely to spend more this offseason than they did last offseason.  

    Kirby_waved_at_me

    Kirby_waved_at_me 1,047

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I think they can get Ervin Santana for $12M to $15M a season and I like him better than Shields.

    Santana is probably a more realistic target, especially considering there were rumors swirling that the Twins already tried signing him last offseason. I wonder how close they were.

    Santana made $14.1MM this year - I wonder if exactly $15MM / year would be enough to sign him for multiple years.

    DJL44

    DJL44 16,606

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Santana has turned a corner since he refined his changeup.

    I think we're talking 20+/yr and 5+ years for Santana, Shields, Scherzer, and Lester.

     

    I've been shocked before but I don't see Ervin Santana going from 2014 where nobody would give up a first round pick to get him to 2015 where he makes $100M on a 5 year deal.

    Oxtung

    Oxtung 516

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I have no problems going all in. You don't do it on a pair of 3s though. As others have said, you do it when you know where your weaknesses are, and you don't have that many. The likelihood of Scherzer finishing out his next deal well are pretty low... He'd provide his best years when the team isn't competitive, and his worst when they are.

    There seem to be 4 options.

     

     

    First, sign an ace now, helping the twins compete in 2015 and then hope he's good later in deal. Either way the deal ends early enough the twins can still retain Buxton and Sano, assuming they deserve it, at that point.

     

    Second, they can wait a couple of years until the twins are "ready" to sign an ace helping them compete a few years down the road. They still have to hope he's good at the end of that contract. However, they can't afford to resign both Sano and Buxton. So one gets traded or goes in free agency.

     

    Third, they could choose to trade minor league assets to obtain an ace like the royals did with Shields. Since said asset will only have a year or two left on his contract resigning Sano and Buxton won't be a problem but they are leveraging their future.

     

    Fourth, the Twins could decide to never go after an ace because the risk is just too great. They then could sign second tier pitchers like garza, lohse, Santana or Jimenez. Or they could just choose to fill the rotation from internal candidates.

     

    There is no perfect solution. There are risks with each approach.

    viking7766

    viking7766 10

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    They shouldn't hit the free agent market too hard, signing a couple 8 figure free agents will just make them another 100 million dollar 90 loss team, they need to be smart and not overpay another Ricky Nolasco out of desperation an save the money for when they are a couple payers away from being competitive, not 10  players

    chopper0080

    chopper0080 288

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just to put my thoughts on this matter...

     

    What I know is that on our roster, only Mauer, Dozier, Hughes, and Perkins have produced at a high enough level over multiple recent years to be penciled in for a starting spot.  I'm am not counting other bullpen arms.

     

    1B-Mauer

    2B-Dozier

    2SP-Hughes

    CL-Perkins

     

    What I know is that on our roster, only Arcia, Vargas, Santana, Gibson, and May have produced enough to deserve a role on the team, but have the talent to earn a starting spot.  However, there is a high possibility of initial regression in 2015.

     

    DH-Arcia w/ RF potential

    DH-Vargas w/ 1B platoon potential

    Util-Santana w/ CF/SS potential

    5SP-Gibson w/ 3SP potential

    RP-May w/ 3SP potential

     

    I know we are committed financially to Nolasco, and he has shown to be a 5SP at best.  Potential as a 4SP.

     

    I know both Suzuki and Pinto could be significantly upgraded at C.

     

    I know that SS is a hole, but the team has not commited to using Santana to plug that hole, and instead relied on mediocre talent to do so.

     

    I know that Plouffe is totally upgradable at 3B.

     

    I know that Santana has been our best OF in 2014 but may be the teams SS  in 2015.  I know that Arcia has excellent power potential but is not a great fielder. 

     

    What I know leaves us with holes at C, 3B, SS/CF (whichever Santana doesn't play), LF, 1SP, and 3SP.  Those are the holes that need to be filled.

     

    What do I know about filling those holes?

     

    I know that counting on higher level prospects to come in and contribute right away has had mized results.  Gibson, Hicks, May and Arcia have struggled while Vargas and Santana have not.  That leads me to believe that counting on Hicks, Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Berrios, and Rosario to contribute in 2015 is pretty foolish.  Milone is a wild card, but the A's preferred a bunch of other SPs over him.  MIght be an indicator to his overall talent level.

     

    I know that the Twins have revenue to add top FAs or take on large contracts in a trade.  I know it is more likely that the Twins will be able to trade for a large salary player than sign one as a FA.

     

    In the end, we have lots of work to do.

    kab21

    kab21 2,459

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    There seem to be 4 options.

     

     

    First, sign an ace now, helping the twins compete in 2015 and then hope he's good later in deal. Either way the deal ends early enough the twins can still retain Buxton and Sano, assuming they deserve it, at that point.

     

    Second, they can wait a couple of years until the twins are "ready" to sign an ace helping them compete a few years down the road. They still have to hope he's good at the end of that contract. However, they can't afford to resign both Sano and Buxton. So one gets traded or goes in free agency.

     

    There is no perfect solution. There are risks with each approach.

     

    Sano and Buxton would have to become truly elite players for them to be too expensive even if the Twins signed an ace now or in a few years.  And even then I'm not convinced that it would be impossible to afford all three since the overlap would only be a couple of years.  It's also a problem that I would be happy to have 7+ years from now.

    Thegrin

    Thegrin 857

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    There's almost no chance Sano or Buxton are productive major leaguers next year, and not a whole lot more hope foe Meyer, IMO...and that's provided they even make the big leagues. Meyer can't even crack the 25 man on THIS team.

    If Sano and/or Buxton perform well in AA next year, don't be surprised if the Twins do with them, what they did with Vargas this year... bring them up.

     

    Plouffe should start practicing playing LF as soon as possible (if he's not already.)  :)

    USAFChief

    USAFChief 78,972

  • Twins Daily Contributor

    • Posted

    If Sano and/or Buxton perform well in AA next year, don't be surprised if the Twins do with them, what they did with Vargas this year... bring them up.

     

    Plouffe should start practicing playing LF as soon as possible (if he's not already.)  :)

    And if they do bring them up, don't be surprised if they're not "productive major leaguers" right away.



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